beaker1 - horse racing selections for sat 9/02/2013

[beaker1]

2:15 Leopardstown – Deloitte Novice Hurdle

CHAMPAGNE FEVER was very disappointing last time, but he was not right that today and is fancied to bounce back here. Prior to that run he had finished just over a length behind Jezki at Fairyhouse and the form of that race has been boosted by Jezki easily beating Waaheb in a grade one next time out. He had also looked very good on his hurdling debut and the trip of this race should really suit him. The ground will hold no fears to him and the Willie Mullins team is in top form at present, so all in all he has a lot going for him. Waaheb is a classy opponent and has a good record at Leopardstown. His trainer, Dermot Weld had a good novice winner earlier this week and I am expecting Waaheb to also run a big race. It could be close between the pair, but I believe that Champagne Fever will win and the forecast with Waaheb to finish second is an appealing bet.

2:25 Newbury – Denman Chase

SILVINIACO CONTI is a class act and strongly fancied to win. The winner of his last three starts; he looks to be improving at a fast rate. His win at Aintree looks very good, as he had the decent Champion Court thirteen lengths back in second, but it is his form this season that has seen him jump close to the top of the betting for the Cheltenham Gold Cup. After putting up an impressive win in the Charlie Hall, he took on the mighty Long Run at Haydock and under a good ride from Ruby Walsh made all to win by two and a half lengths. He had both The Giant Bolster and Weird Al behind that day and if anything I expect him to beat them even more easily in this. He jumps extremely well, stays, handles the going and is a solid favouri



3-35 NEWBURY - Saturday 9th February -Betfair Hurdle (Grade 3) –

When considering that all of the last six winners were aged five or six, it is fair to say that younger runners should be favoured in this race. This somewhat reduces the chances of the likes of eight-year-olds Ronaldo Des Mottes and Dark Lover as well as Punjabi and Petit Robin who will both be seeking to become the first ten-year-old winner of the race since 1980. To narrow it down further, six-year-olds are the most successful single age-group with ten victories in the last twenty-six renewals of the contest. They have ten representatives this year with the likes of Cotton Mill, Swing Bowler, My Tent Or Yours and Claret Cloak all hoping to add to this tally.

It seems fairly likely that the reason for the success of younger horses in the Betfair Hurdle is that they are generally still relatively unexposed over the smaller obstacles and are perhaps still ahead of the handicapper. This is supported by the fact that seven of the last ten winners had only had ten runs or fewer over hurdles prior to coming here. There are only six of the field who miss the cut at this stage with Cause Of Causes, Punjabi, Ronaldo Des Mottes, Princeton Plains, First In The Queue and Home Run all exceeding the quota of ten for previous runs.

The fact that eight of the last ten winners had achieved at least a top-three finish last time suggests that it is best to side with horses in form. Of that eight, six of those were arriving here on the back of a win and Cause Of Causes, My Tent Or Yours, Dark Lover and Swing Bowler will be looking to join that elite group on Saturday. Some people may argue that last year’s winner Zarkandar was an exception because although he had won on his most recent visit to the racecourse, he returned from a lay-off of 316 days to win here. This offers a ray of light for supporters of Cotton Mill due to the fact that John Ferguson’s six-year-old has not been seen in public since finishing third in the Grade 1 Sefton Novices’ Hurdle in April last year.

The popular belief that Saturday racing is dominated by Paul Nicholls and Nicky Henderson may be open to some debate but the latter’s record in this race is not to be sniffed at. The master of Seven Barrows has saddled four winners of this race as well as two runners-up since 1988 with Non So and Punjabi both hitting the post in 2003 and 2008 respectively. This year he has no less than six representatives with My Tent Or Yours, First In The Queue, Cash And Go, Punjabi, Petit Robin and Lyvius all flying the flag for the Lambourn outfit.

In terms of official ratings, with eight of the last ten winners rated 130 or higher it seems that despite being a handicap the race still regularly attracts a high-quality field. This boundary puts an end to the prospects of David Pipe’s Home Run who with an official rating of 124 would be the lowest-rated winner since Wingman in 2008. It is also worth noting that both Petit Robin (159) and Cause Of Causes (152) will be attempting to become the highest rated winner of the last decade.

Closely associated with official ratings is the weight that each runner is asked to carry for the duration of the contest. A burden of 10st 6lb looks to be the benchmark here with only three of the last ten winners having carried a lower weight than this to victory. When applying this trend to Saturday’s field it leaves us with the top ten horses as they appear on the race card and leaving some of the well fancied horses such as Swing Bowler and Court Minstrel to hope they can buck the trend.

A final factor worthy of consideration is the fact that nine of the last ten winners have come from the first seven places in the betting. The 50/1 shot Heathcote remains the only exception to this rule and it would take quite a leap of faith to side with a long shot given this pattern. There is obviously still time for the market to change significantly between now and 3.35 tomorrow afternoon but nevertheless the trend is still significant.

Shortlist

MY TENT OR YOURS

Pearl Swan

Cotton Mill

(Claret Cloak)

Conclusion

Having been steadily progressive during his novice hurdling campaign Claret Cloak returned to action in November with an excellent third behind Raya Star at Ascot. This performance saw the gelding beaten only two lengths by a rival that went on to finish second in the Grade 1 Christmas Hurdle on Boxing Day. Emma Lavelle’s charge has not been seen since but this will be only his fifth start over hurdles and it is isn’t too much to suggest there may be more to come. He only missed the weight cut-off by 3lb and although he will need to improve again he could go well after a lay-off.

Pearl Swan was positioned towards the top of the juvenile hurdle ranks last season having finished ahead of Triumph Hurdle third Grumeti last January before being disqualified. He still looked to be in contention when falling at the last in the Triumph Hurdle with only four lengths between himself and the leaders. His reappearance in a ‘Jumpers Bumper’ was encouraging enough and although his form is not as strong to date, he fits a similar profile to last year’s winner Zarkandar who came from the same stable. He looks the pick of Nicholls’ runners on jockey bookings and looks set for a big effort on the back of a pipe-opener a fortnight ago.

Cotton Mill’s bizarre exit in the Neptune Novices’ Hurdle remains one of the lasting images of last year’s festival and we will never know how close he might have got to Simonsig. The step up in trip didn’t seem to suit at Aintree in April and it is interesting that he is being dropped back to 2m on Saturday. His fitness will have to be taken for granted but with talk of the Champion Hurdle as his main target, a bold showing is required here in order to justify such entries.

MY TENT OR YOURS has done very little wrong in his six starts in Britain to date, the highlight of his bumper campaign being a second-placed effort behind Nigel Twiston-Davies’ highly-rated The New One at Aintree. His form over hurdles is also worthy of respect having seen off subsequent Challow Hurdle winner Taquin Du Seuil on his hurdling debut. Following a below-par effort at Newbury in heavy ground next time, his latest run at Huntingdon saw him stroll clear of his rivals to win by seven lengths. He represents the powerful Henderson yard and despite being raised in the weights, he looks to be heading the right way and could be a hurdler of the highest order.

[Broken Wing]

Paddy Power's been emailing me about having a balance on my account. I'm hoping your detailed analysis can help me increase it.

[limecat]

Paddy Power's been emailing me about having a balance on my account. I'm hoping your detailed analysis can help me increase it.

If you keep topping up your account to cover your losses, I've no doubt that he'll email you more often!

That is what you meant, right?

[Broken Wing]

Up to now everytime he's emailed me I've put a bet on and won. The latest was the Ravens over the 49ers. You think he'd learn.

[Donny B.]

Jaysus, beaker, you weren't kidding when you said comprehensive!

Just don't burn yourself out before Chelthenham ye hear?

[beaker1]

[quote="beaker1"]2:15 Leopardstown – Deloitte Novice Hurdle

CHAMPAGNE FEVER was very disappointing last time, but he was not right that today and is fancied to bounce back here. Prior to that run he had finished just over a length behind Jezki at Fairyhouse and the form of that race has been boosted by Jezki easily beating Waaheb in a grade one next time out. He had also looked very good on his hurdling debut and the trip of this race should really suit him. The ground will hold no fears to him and the Willie Mullins team is in top form at present, so all in all he has a lot going for him. Waaheb is a classy opponent and has a good record at Leopardstown. His trainer, Dermot Weld had a good novice winner earlier this week and I am expecting Waaheb to also run a big race. It could be close between the pair, but I believe that Champagne Fever will win and the forecast with Waaheb to finish second is an appealing bet.

2:25 Newbury – Denman Chase

SILVINIACO CONTI is a class act and strongly fancied to win. The winner of his last three starts; he looks to be improving at a fast rate. His win at Aintree looks very good, as he had the decent Champion Court thirteen lengths back in second, but it is his form this season that has seen him jump close to the top of the betting for the Cheltenham Gold Cup. After putting up an impressive win in the Charlie Hall, he took on the mighty Long Run at Haydock and under a good ride from Ruby Walsh made all to win by two and a half lengths. He had both The Giant Bolster and Weird Al behind that day and if anything I expect him to beat them even more easily in this. He jumps extremely well, stays, handles the going and is a solid favouri



3-35 NEWBURY - Saturday 9th February -Betfair Hurdle (Grade 3) –

When considering that all of the last six winners were aged five or six, it is fair to say that younger runners should be favoured in this race. This somewhat reduces the chances of the likes of eight-year-olds Ronaldo Des Mottes and Dark Lover as well as Punjabi and Petit Robin who will both be seeking to become the first ten-year-old winner of the race since 1980. To narrow it down further, six-year-olds are the most successful single age-group with ten victories in the last twenty-six renewals of the contest. They have ten representatives this year with the likes of Cotton Mill, Swing Bowler, My Tent Or Yours and Claret Cloak all hoping to add to this tally.

It seems fairly likely that the reason for the success of younger horses in the Betfair Hurdle is that they are generally still relatively unexposed over the smaller obstacles and are perhaps still ahead of the handicapper. This is supported by the fact that seven of the last ten winners had only had ten runs or fewer over hurdles prior to coming here. There are only six of the field who miss the cut at this stage with Cause Of Causes, Punjabi, Ronaldo Des Mottes, Princeton Plains, First In The Queue and Home Run all exceeding the quota of ten for previous runs.

The fact that eight of the last ten winners had achieved at least a top-three finish last time suggests that it is best to side with horses in form. Of that eight, six of those were arriving here on the back of a win and Cause Of Causes, My Tent Or Yours, Dark Lover and Swing Bowler will be looking to join that elite group on Saturday. Some people may argue that last year’s winner Zarkandar was an exception because although he had won on his most recent visit to the racecourse, he returned from a lay-off of 316 days to win here. This offers a ray of light for supporters of Cotton Mill due to the fact that John Ferguson’s six-year-old has not been seen in public since finishing third in the Grade 1 Sefton Novices’ Hurdle in April last year.

The popular belief that Saturday racing is dominated by Paul Nicholls and Nicky Henderson may be open to some debate but the latter’s record in this race is not to be sniffed at. The master of Seven Barrows has saddled four winners of this race as well as two runners-up since 1988 with Non So and Punjabi both hitting the post in 2003 and 2008 respectively. This year he has no less than six representatives with My Tent Or Yours, First In The Queue, Cash And Go, Punjabi, Petit Robin and Lyvius all flying the flag for the Lambourn outfit.

In terms of official ratings, with eight of the last ten winners rated 130 or higher it seems that despite being a handicap the race still regularly attracts a high-quality field. This boundary puts an end to the prospects of David Pipe’s Home Run who with an official rating of 124 would be the lowest-rated winner since Wingman in 2008. It is also worth noting that both Petit Robin (159) and Cause Of Causes (152) will be attempting to become the highest rated winner of the last decade.

Closely associated with official ratings is the weight that each runner is asked to carry for the duration of the contest. A burden of 10st 6lb looks to be the benchmark here with only three of the last ten winners having carried a lower weight than this to victory. When applying this trend to Saturday’s field it leaves us with the top ten horses as they appear on the race card and leaving some of the well fancied horses such as Swing Bowler and Court Minstrel to hope they can buck the trend.

A final factor worthy of consideration is the fact that nine of the last ten winners have come from the first seven places in the betting. The 50/1 shot Heathcote remains the only exception to this rule and it would take quite a leap of faith to side with a long shot given this pattern. There is obviously still time for the market to change significantly between now and 3.35 tomorrow afternoon but nevertheless the trend is still significant.

Shortlist

MY TENT OR YOURS

Pearl Swan

Cotton Mill

(Claret Cloak)

Conclusion

Having been steadily progressive during his novice hurdling campaign Claret Cloak returned to action in November with an excellent third behind Raya Star at Ascot. This performance saw the gelding beaten only two lengths by a rival that went on to finish second in the Grade 1 Christmas Hurdle on Boxing Day. Emma Lavelle’s charge has not been seen since but this will be only his fifth start over hurdles and it is isn’t too much to suggest there may be more to come. He only missed the weight cut-off by 3lb and although he will need to improve again he could go well after a lay-off.

Pearl Swan was positioned towards the top of the juvenile hurdle ranks last season having finished ahead of Triumph Hurdle third Grumeti last January before being disqualified. He still looked to be in contention when falling at the last in the Triumph Hurdle with only four lengths between himself and the leaders. His reappearance in a ‘Jumpers Bumper’ was encouraging enough and although his form is not as strong to date, he fits a similar profile to last year’s winner Zarkandar who came from the same stable. He looks the pick of Nicholls’ runners on jockey bookings and looks set for a big effort on the back of a pipe-opener a fortnight ago.

Cotton Mill’s bizarre exit in the Neptune Novices’ Hurdle remains one of the lasting images of last year’s festival and we will never know how close he might have got to Simonsig. The step up in trip didn’t seem to suit at Aintree in April and it is interesting that he is being dropped back to 2m on Saturday. His fitness will have to be taken for granted but with talk of the Champion Hurdle as his main target, a bold showing is required here in order to justify such entries.

MY TENT OR YOURS has done very little wrong in his six starts in Britain to date, the highlight of his bumper campaign being a second-placed effort behind Nigel Twiston-Davies’ highly-rated The New One at Aintree. His form over hurdles is also worthy of respect having seen off subsequent Challow Hurdle winner Taquin Du Seuil on his hurdling debut. Following a below-par effort at Newbury in heavy ground next time, his latest run at Huntingdon saw him stroll clear of his rivals to win by seven lengths. He represents the powerful Henderson yard and despite being raised in the weights, he looks to be heading the right way and could be a hurdler of the highest order.



get in 21/1 treble,hope some followed

[limecat]

5 euro stake = 155 euro in my account.

Gonna have a horse burger to celebrate.

[Donny B.]

5 euro stake = 155 euro in my account.

Gonna have a horse burger to celebrate.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tu1zpTUOF4s

Fair play beaker! Just wish I'd gotten a bet down!

[cormac]

Very impressive run by My Tent or Yours at Newbury, absolutely flattened the field without having to get anywhere near top speed. Jumped straight to the top of the betting for the Supreme Novices' Hurdle on the opening day at Cheltenham, it would seem to be between him and Jezki for that honour with Un Atout looking the next best.

Also impressed by Boston Bob's stamina in the 2m5f Novices' Chase at Leopardstown. Came from way back at the last fence to pip Texas Jack by a nose with the last stride. Reached 200/1 in the in-running on Betfair. Would probably suggest he's better suited to 3 miles and should run in the RSA Chase on the Wednesday rather than the Jewson Novices' Chase on the Thursday at Cheltenham.