Paddy Power Imperial Cup – Sandown, 3:15 saturday march 9th

[beaker1]

The trends surrounding the ages of past winners of the Imperial Cup is an intriguing one. Over the past decade, the roll of honour implies that four and five-year-olds have a record similar to those aged six or above, but a whole new world opens up when looking back at the results to 1980.

There is no need to mention the four-year-olds as none are due to run tomorrow, unless the reserve Clarion Call gets in. Five-year-olds may have only won three of the last ten renewals but overall they have by far the strongest record, winning 16 of the last 33. Quite why they haven’t fared so well in recent seasons is open to debate (excluding last year’s winner Paintball), but even so the chances of Mr Mole, Arnaud, Kazlian, Pine Creek, Solarus Exhibition, Cayman Islands, Sporting Boy and Lyvius must be respected. Six-year-olds would appear to be next best having won the Imperial Cup eight times since 1980; three of which have come in the past seven years. Six horses fit into that category with Tominator and last year’s winner Paintball the most prominent in the betting.

Alarazi scored for the seven-year-olds two year’s ago but winners from that age group are pretty few and far between – four from the last thirty three to be precise. Eight-year-old winners are even rarer, Precious Boy being their only winner back in 1994. The nine-year-old Scorned added to the victory of Desert Hero some 21 years earlier when winning this race in 2004 confirming that older winners are almost as rare as hen’s teeth. Therefore, in order to narrow the field down to a more manageable number, it may be worth opposing all runners tomorrow aged seven or above.

Martin Pipe loved nothing more than winning the Imperial Cup, a feat he achieved six times during his career, probably something to do with the fact that the sponsor offers a whopping bonus if the winner follows up at Cheltenham. Pipe senior collected that bonus on three occasions; twice as a trainer and once as an owner. Son David has wasted no time in picking up where his father left off with back-to-back wins in 2007 and 2008. If the betting was to be believed he should have made it a hat-trick 12 months later but the heavily punted Seven Is My Number had to give best to Dave’s Dream. With stats like that, it is clearly best not to write off his runners.

Quite surprisingly, Jonjo O’Neill and Paul Nicholls are still searching for their first Imperial Cup winner despite each saddling half a dozen or so runners since 2001. Both trainers look to have reasonable chances of breaking that duck this year but their runners, Mr Mole and Tominator, should perhaps be treated with a touch of caution.

It is quite remarkable given the ultra-competitive nature of the Imperial Cup that seven of the last 10 winners had achieved a top two finish on their previous start – five winners and two runners up. The last time out winners lining up for tomorrow’s race include Mr Mole, Shammick Boy, Le Bacardy, Tominator and Pine Creek.

Eleven stone does appear to be the cut off mark in the Imperial Cup. Polar Red and Korelo were the last two winners of this race to have carried in excess of 11st but since then every winner has carried ten stone something – a very interesting trend given that the market principals Mr Mole and Tanerko Emery both carry over 11st.

Despite the competitive nature of the Imperial Cup, the favourites have fared very well by winning six of the last 10 renewals. Even in those four remaining years there hasn’t been much of an upset confirming that it isn’t really a race for outsiders.

Shortlist

Tominator

Pine Creek

WhitbyJack

Conclusion

If the betting is to be believed this looks like this race belongs to Mr Mole, but there are plenty of negatives surrounding the weight he will be carrying to put me off, even though the handicap is condensed this year. Tominator gets the vote in this as he fits nicely with the profile of recent winners, he is the right age, comes here off the back of a win last time out and carries just over 11 stone which shouldn’t be an issue given the bottom weight only carries 10 stone 7. Tominator had enough ability on the flat to lift the Northumberland Plate but it wasn’t a complete surprise that he was sent hurdling as he hadn’t done enough to warrant a career as a stallion. He was firmly beaten in a Grade 2 atCheltenham but he returned to Sandown in February to record a comfortable victory from Leviathan. He debuts in a handicap today and with the course already proven to suit he should go well in the hustle and bustle of the race.

Pine Creek comes here off the back of victories at Doncaster and Leicester and represents the John Ferguson yard and has a fairly similar profile to Tominator. Pine Creek had ability on the flat, finishing 3rd in a Listed event at Saint-Cloud, he carries just over eleven stone and at the age of 5 he looks primed to run a big race.

The Gary Moore stable has been in sensational form in recent weeks and he has plenty of pedigree when it comes to lifting big handicaps so Whitby Jack has to be respected. This gelding is anything but consistent, however when he is right he is capable of attaining a high level of form as he showed when despatching a quality field at Kempton in early January. If he can find his best then he certainly has the ability to get involved whilst trends wise he is the right age, carries the right weight and comes here on the back of a second last time out.

[Mackman15]

Not your best week.

2 of them pulled up

[ceemec]

Indeed. Took the tip e/w for Tominator. Finished well down. Ah well, will keep an eye on things still, Beaker.