day 4 cheltenham friday 15th march

[beaker1]

JCB Triumph Hurdle



There can be no question that this is a different race now to the one before the introduction of the Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap in 2005. For a start, seven of the eight winners could be found in the first four in the betting and were rated officially rated 138+ over hurdles. I prefer the 140+ horses and those yet to record that figure are Chris Pea Green, King Of Dudes, Lac Fontana, Sametegal and Somemothersdohavem. Cape Explorer, Gassin Golf and Masters Blazing don’t have a published official rating as yet as they are once-raced.

Horses with plenty of 1s against their name usually win the Triumph and especially on their final start with 16 of the previous 19 winners passing the post in front last time out. That is a strong pattern when we consider that last-time-out winners regularly provide less than half the runners but are still operating at a winning strike rate of 84% since 1992. On that basis I can’t back horses beaten like last time out like Cape Explorer, Diakai, Gassin Golf, Kashmir Peak, King Of Dudes, Lac Fontana, Sametegal, Swnymor and Vasco Du Ronceray.

Another notable change has been that horses lacking in hurdling experience are winning the Triumph Hurdle these days which was anything but the case beforehand. In fact, when Zarkandar won two years ago he became the first horse in the 48-year history of the race to win off the back of just one run over hurdles. In fact, three of the last five winners had run no more than twice over hurdles compared to just one winner between 1988-2007 which some will be as a positive for Cape Explorer, Gassin Golf, Hidden Justice (for last year’s winning stable), Lac Fontana, Masters Blazing, Rolling Star and Somemothersdhavem.

Flat race form is also important as the last 14 Triumph winners that had a Flat campaign ran over 1m4f at least once which is against Kashmir Peak, King Of Dudes, and just one of the last 15 winners was rated lower than 80 on the level like Cape Explorer, Hidden Justice, Masters Blazing, Somemothersdohavem and Stocktons Wing.

Seven of the last nine winners did not have their hurdling debut until at least December with four of those not running over timber until at least January. In fact, we never even saw two of the last three winners in Britain until they won the Adonis Hurdle three weeks before this race and that has been easily best the guide with as many as five of the last 13 winners going on to double up in the Triumph and that would probably have been six had Binocular not been re-routed at the last moment to the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle. This year’s winner Irish Saint waits for Aintree so the Adonis is represented by Vasco Du Ronceray (2nd), Lac Fontana (3rd) and Chris Pea Green (6th) but, as we see, it is really only the Adonis winner that has mattered.

The Grade 2 Finesse Hurdle on Festival Trials Day at Cheltenham won by Rolling Star and the Grade 1 Finale Hurdle at Chepstow won by Ruacana (after Swnymor fell at the final flight when leading) have been underperforming as trials given their prestige. Only one of the 17 Finesse Hurdle winners to run in the Triumph has won and when Countrywide Flame improved on his second in the Finale Hurdle to win here last year he became the first participant from that race since 1994 to win the Triumph.

There has been no Irish-trained winner since Scolardy in 2002 which is the only negative I can find for Our Conor. Other Irish runners are Diakali and Stocktons Wing. Nicky Henderson is chasing a sixth Triumph Hurdle however with Rolling Star and Paul Nicholls a third with Far West and Lac Fontana and Alan King his third with King Of Dudes.

All runners have had a recent prep race so we can’t dismiss horses that have not run in the last 55 days.

Short List

Far West
Rolling Star
(Our Conor)

Conclusion

FAR WEST is a last-time-out winner representing a yard with two recent wins in the race (albeit with Flat breds and Far West is a jumps bred) that won the two juvenile races here in November and December that Katchit also won before he won this race. In fact, three winners since 1999 ran in the November race. The only negative regards ROLLING STAR is that Finesse Hurdle winners have generally underperformed here bar Katchit but otherwise he looks the type for a yard chasing their sixth Triumph win and he is a lightly-raced last-time-out winner rated over 140 which has been the way to go since the Fred Winter took away the social runners. That said, it looks like a number of social runners have been declared this season. If only OUR CONOR were British-trained as being Irish-trained is the only statistical point given the raiders’ recent record as visually he has been the most impressive juvenile hurdler this season.That said he did win what has been the most notable guide in the last two years (featured last year’s winner and second plus the season the year before) the Irish did win the Fred Winter so their juvenile hurdlers could be a cut above the British for a change and he is a last-time-out winner with the highest hurdles rating that also had run over 12f on the Flat and is the highest rated Flat horse in the race. Given all those positives allied to the fact that 7 of the 8 winners since the Fred Winter started in the first three in the betting, he still has to be short list material. The top three in the betting do look head and shoulders above the rest so I make no apologies purely suggesting them (especially given the recent SP stats) and I also suggest you look at perming them in forecasts and tricasts.



Vincent O’Brien County Hurdle


The last nine winners all carried 11st or less (only one horse has carried more than 11st 8lbs into the frame since 1979 and no winner has carried more than that same weight for 53 years) but, of more interest, is that the last seven winners were all officially rated in the 130s. We are, however, just about clinging on to that trend as both the last two winners raced off 139. Only one winner has been officially rated over 145 since 1998 and the record-high winning rating (after all horses’ ratings were raised due to slippage over a decade ago) was Sporazene off 151. Therefore, horses rated 145+ can go; Brampour (first time blinkers), Midnight Game, Cotton Mill, Hisaabaat and Edgardo Sol.

To win six of the last ten renewals from less than 25% representation (including five of the last six) makes this an exceptional race in recent times for the Irish whose representatives this year are Midnight Game, Hisaabaat, Tennis Cap, Discoteca, Abbey Lane (ran in the Coral Cup two days ago), Princeton Plains, Shadow Catcher, Il Fenomeno and Ted Veale. The recent run of successes for the Irish also goes some way to explaining the lack of winning course form amongst winners’ profiles, the last being Master Tern 13 years ago.

Five-year-olds have such a good record. An exceptionally good record in fact having won eight of the 14 runnings since 1997 from approximately 20% representation so make that has to be an extra trick for Hisaabaat, Ranjaan, Discoteca, Shadow Catcher and Kian’s Delight. Alderwood wasn’t your average Vincent O’Brien County Hurdle-winning novice last season aged eight and having his thirteenth start over hurdles. Officially, however, he was a novice having failed to win until recording a maiden hurdle victory at Killarney ten months earlier so, in victory, he became the eighth winner in the last nine runnings to have been either a first-or-second season hurdler.

Seven of the last 11 Vincent O’Brien County Hurdle winners contested either the Betfair Hurdle or Boylesports.com Hurdle, the most valuable two-mile hurdles run in Britain or Ireland before the County so perhaps no great surprise the form of those races has carried on here. Contenders that ran in the Betfair Hurdle are Cotton Mill (2nd), Princeton Plains (8th), Manyriverstocross (10th) Punjabi (14th) and Ronaldo Des Mottes (pulled up) whereas Abbey Lane (1st), Ted Veale (3rd), Il Fenomeno (5th), and Shadow Catcher (14th) contested the Boylesports.com Hurdle. Both of Willie Mullins County Hurdle winners ran in that race which he won with Abbey Lane and as there is a 100,000 euros bonus if he can win any race at the Festival, he may have another crack here failing in the Coral Cup on Wednesday.

With more luck Paul Nicholls could easily have trained five of the last nine winners but a tally three victories and two seconds and he runss Edgardo Sol (second in last year’s race), Ranjaan and Brampour. I haven’t seen a better jockey than Ruby Walsh when it comes to giving a horse a hold-up ride at Cheltenham so this kind of race suits him down to the ground and he will be gunning for a remarkable fifth win in the last ten years and he is aboard Nicholls’ Ranjaan.

Others stats to bear in mind are that only four of the last 48 win-and-placed horses raced prominently throughout and, prior to 2008, 32 of the previous 33 winners started at no bigger than 16/1 so, with four of the last five winners striking at 20/1+, this is no longer the punter-friendly handicap of times gone by.

Short List

SHADOW CATCHER
TED VEALE
IF FENOMENO
KIAN’S DELIGHT
(RANJAAN)

Conclusion

What we want is a first or season hurdler rated in the 130s which gives a starting point of It’s A Gimme, Shadow Catcher, Il Fenomeno, Ifandbutwhynot, Claret Cloak, Ted Veale, Kian’s Delight and Kings Lad. However, as RANJAAN is just 1lb higher on 140 (the last two winners were rated 139) and he is five-year-old (great record) representing Nicholls and Walsh who have been mustard in this race, I want him on the short list. Trying to cut the other eight down to four, as the Irish have won 5 of the last 6 runnings and the Boylesports.com Hurdle has been a good guide then TED VEALE, IL FENOMENO and SHADOW CATCHER can’t not go on the short list. Ted Veale fared best in third that day and was going best of all turning for home but didn’t quite get home on heavy ground so this better surface will help. If Fenomeno ran really well in fifth in first-time blinkers given they lit him to the extent he hit the front sooner than ideal. He is classy and speedy and could be the best each-way value of the 20/1+shots in the race. Shadow Catcher was back in fourteenth but we have already seen one Gordon Elliott win a handicap hurdle this season after not showing much this season so don’t be surprised if this has been the long term plan for this five-year-old who had a little warm up on the All-weather Flat three weeks ago and ran well until hampered two out in last year’s Triumph Hurdle. The final berth goes to KIAN’S DELIGHT being a five-year-old. He has not run over hurdles since August but he had a little spin on the Flat 15 days ago to put him right for this race.



Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle


A race for proper NH types (the 2009 and 2011 winners went on to win the following season’s RSA Chase) where they should not run the risk of bumping into speedier horses from the Flat as can be the case in the Neptune, this test is principally about staying power and there have been a couple of brutal editions so the stamina factor is crucial. Six of the eight winners so far (and 18 of the 24 win-and-placed horses) had previously experienced what a three-mile hurdle had felt like unlike African Gold (though he does promise to stay well and connections were mulling over the Pertemps Final), I Shot The Sheriff, Le Bec and Utopies Des Bordes (though she is the winner of a Grade 1 chase in France over 2m6f on heavy ground and Henderson is adamant she will stay). Ballycasey has not run over 3m under Rules but did so in his three point-to-points.

Three key guides run at Cheltenham earlier in the season are the Hyde, Bristol and Classic Novice Hurdles which have featured six of the eight winners between them. Coneygree won the first of those two events but misses the race with a late setback. He could, however, only finish third behind At Fishers Cross in the latter and that form was franked big time when the runner-up, The New One, hosed up in the Neptune. Equally as convincing is that five of the eight winners had raced at least twice over the course of which four already had winning course form to their name. At Fishers Cross also won a handicap at Cheltenham in December.

Outside of Cheltenham it has been the race registered as the Prestige Novices’ Hurdle run at Haydock in late February that has been the only other race to feature more than one Albert Bartlett winner but this season’s winner, Two Rockers, ran in the Neptune. The most notable Irish guide so far has been the Synergy Security Services Novices’ Hurdle at Leopardstown in late-January over 2m4f won by Pont Alexandre and in which Our Vinnie finished third. It is also the race that Weapon’s Amnesty finished second in on his final start before becoming the first Irish-trained winner of this event. Liskennett also finished second in that event before filling the same berth in the Albert Bartlett and both were trained by Charles Byrnes as is Our Vinnie. Byrnes’ Powerstation also finished second in the Albert Bartlett.

It took the Albert Bartlett just six runnings to produce three winners aged 7+ whereas it took the previous 72 combined runnings of the Supreme and Neptune to better that figure. I am not saying purely concentrate on novices aged seven or older but I am saying give them a lot more respect than for the Supreme or Neptune. Horses aged 7+ are the dual Cesarewitch winner Aaim To Prosper (9), Superior Quality (8) and Inish Island (7). No horse aged 8+ has won yet but the fact that only 14 have run yet four have hit the frame only strengthens the case for older novices.

In addition to Charles Byrnes’ runners we should also respect Jonjo O’Neill’s entries as has been unrepresented for the last four seasons but Black Jack Ketchum and Wichita Lineman ran out convincing winners as short-priced favourites the previous two years so his contenders would be worth a look. Cloudy Copper (in the same ownership as Black Jack Ketchum) represents him this time.

All eight winners had run at least three times over hurdles (which is not good for supporters of Ballycasey, Cloudy Copper, Le Bec, O’Faolain’s Boy, of which six had won a graded race. Graded race winners are At Fishers Cross, Inish Island, Our Vinnie and Utopie Des Bordes.

Short List

At Fishers Cross
Our Vinnie
Inish Island
(Utopie Des Bordes)

Conclusion

AT FISHERS CROSS is the standout trends horse. Twice a winner at the course this season, including the same pattern race that Wichita Lineman and Bibs Worth won before they won the Albert Bartlett, he is also proven over 3m and has had his last two pieces of form franked when the runner-up then winning a pattern race, notably The New One of course who won the Neptune on Wednesday. He also therefore starts in the first five in the betting like 7 of the 8 winners and won or finished second last time out like 7 of the 8 winners. OUR VINNIE didn’t finish in the first two last time out but he was third in the same race that Charles Byrnes ran his Albert Bartlett winner who was also beaten in that race and another of his two runners-up in this race that was over 2m4f behind Pont Alexandre which would be a trip half a mile short of his best so he should improve plenty back up to 3m today He was given a sighter of the course early season which suggests Byrnes has had this race in mind for a long time and he is only one of five pattern race winners in the field (in fact he has won two including when outstaying the Neptune second Rule The World over this trip) which is something 6 of the 8 Albert Bartlett wins already had in the bag. Our Vinnie makes a lot of each-way appeal at a double-figure price. INISH ISLAND is also a pattern race winner and represents the red hot Willie Mullins. He may be their second string behind Ballycasey but he has much the stronger trends claims and was only 1½ lengths behind At Fishers Cross (gave 3lbs) back in December. UTOPIE DES BORDES gets the final berth. She is in brackets as she has one trend to overcome (not run over 3m) but she is a Grade 1 winner over 2m6f in heavy ground and receives a handy 5lbs mares’ allowance here. The only winning five-year-old was also a French-bred. A last-time-out winner who looks classy and a battler and representing the yard that had a 1-2 in this race two years ago who should start in the first five in the betting like 7 of the last 8 winners, she is certainly short list material.


Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup

The last 13 Gold Cup winners had already won at Grade 1 level so any of The Giant Bolster, Cape Tribulation, Sunnyhillboy or Monbeg Dude would be an unusual winner if successful.

On the face of it, the fact that ten of the last 21 winners were second-season chasers is notable but it does not slap you hard in the face. That said, they are usually heavily outnumbered so it reads better than first implies and they have a very strong hands this season with the first three in the betting Bobs Worth, Sir Des Champs and Silviniaco Conti as well as Bog Warrior (if he runs here rather than the World Hurdle) and Monbeg Dud. If any of those three big second-season novices do win, unless there is a move for Long Run, that would mean 13 consecutive Gold Cup winners will have started in the first three in the betting.

As many as 44 years have now passed since the Gold Cup winner was aged older than ten which is a big negative for Sunnyhillboy. In fact, in the 13 runnings since the 1998 Gold Cup, all 62 horses aged 10+ have been beaten which included 14 horses sent off at 10/1 or lower and four outright favourites.

Cheltenham is not a straightforward test and finding a rhythm, especially over fences, is paramount. Therefore I do feel there is some course-specialist element that we would be foolish to ignore. Nine of the last 12 winners had won or finished second at the Festival before and the big non-qualifier on that count is Silviniaco Conti who has deliberately been kept away from Cheltenham over fences. Others that have not finished in the first two at the Festival before are Bog Warrior (never run at Cheltenham), Monbeg Dude (not run at the Festival before) and Wayward Prince (though only beaten a length into third in the RSA Chase).

Without question the King George VI Chase has been the outstanding guide to the Gold Cup with nine of the last 13 Gold Cup winners taking their chance. Long Run became the fifth horse to complete the King George-Gold Cup double two seasons ago in the space of just nine years and he will be bidding to do likewise again after he fought back to deny Captain Chris by a neck with The Giant Bolster never going a yard (pulled up) on his first run on a right handed track in a long while so I would ignore his effort. See More Business and Imperial Commander have run shckers in the King George only to win the Gold Cup later in the season. Ireland’s best guide has been the Lexus Chase featuring four of the last eight winners. This season’s renewal was a real spectacle with less than a length covering Tidal Bay, First Lieutenant, Flemenstar and Sir Des Champs and the latter would probably have won had he jumped two out properly. The Betfair Chase has been a good guide in its few years of existence with three winners and the 1-2-3 of Silviniaco Conti, Long Run and The Giant Bolster lock horns again.

Eight of the last 11 winners did not run during the same calendar year but we have to go back 22 years since a Gold Cup winner had been off the course for any further back than Boxing Day which is not in Bobs Worth’s favour. The requirement to be on an in-form horse is important with 11 of the last 12 finishing either first or second last time out which is against Monbeg Dude, Sunnyhillboy and Wayward Prince and, with regards to winning form earlier in the season, 12 of the last 17 winners had at least a 50% success rate which is not the case for The Giant Bolster, Sir Des Champs, Captain, Chris, Sunnyhillboy or Wayward Prince. Since Mr Mulligan won off the back of seasonal form figures of 4F in 1997, only Imperial Commander has failed to win earlier in his Gold Cup-winning campaign which is what Sunnyhillboy, The Giant Bolster and Wayward Prince are trying to achieve.

Of the last 12 winners only War Of Attrition failed to enter the race with a rating off at least 166. The non-qualifiers in this cont are Bog Warrior (153), Cape Tribulation (165), Monbeg Dude (138), Sir Des Champs (162), Sunnyhillboy (152), The Giant Bolster (164) and Wayward Prince (147). Front runners have a one-in-five strike rate over the last three decades (though there is no obvious front runner this time if Bog Warrior doesn’t run). Maybe Long Run in first-time cheekpieces?

Paul Nicholls has trained four winners and if Silviniaco Conti wins Nicholls will be the first trainer in history to win the Gold Cup with four different horses.


Short List

Sir Des Champs
Long Run
Captain Chris

Conclusion

You can find negative trends for all horses so it is case of how you interpret which are most important. I am struggling to have Bobs Worth as a trends-based horse arriving here off just one run this season and not having run since before Christmas as we have to go back to 1991 to find the last winner just one run and I can’t recall a winner not to have had its last race as far back at December 1st. I think that is important. Silviniaco Conti’s lack of Cheltenham form means he is also tough to include so if one of the first three in the betting is to win for the thirteenth straight year I feel it is SIR DES CHAMPS from the red-hot Willie Mullins stable. He ran in the Lexus Chase which has featured four of the last eight and is 2-2 for at the Cheltenham Festival and promises to improve again for another step up in trip so the only negative is he is not rated 166+ but neither was Gigginstown Stud’s other Gold Cup winner, War Of Attrition, who like Sir Des Champs was brought around steadily. Being the King George winner, LONG RUN has to make the short list given their excellent conversion rate in the Gold Cup of late with five winners in nine years. He also contested the Betfair Chase like thee recent winners, has placed at worst in all three runs at the Cheltenham Festival (in fact he has never been out of the first three in his 24-race career and he could front run in first-time cheekpieces and front runners win the Gold Cup more often than they are entitled to. Having finished second in the King George and won at the Festival before then CAPTAIN CHRIS is worth the final short list berth. The ground is also coming in his favour and he is only one of four horses that are rated 166+ like 11 of the last 12 winners. I think he is the forgotten horse of the race and represents good each-way at a double figure price.



CGA Foxhunter Chase


Twenty of the last 22 winners were aged ten or younger from just about bang on 50% representation so horses aged 11+ are just not for me and especially when we consider that that those two had won this race before. This year they take up a third of the field; Backstage, Coombe Hill, Dante’s Storm, Doctor Kingsley, Faasel, Hoopy, Keenan’s Future and That’s Rhythm and are unsurprisingly not for me.

Latching onto the youngest of the most-fancied horses is a simple line of thinking that would have found you winners such as Rushing Wild in 1992, Elegant Lord in 1996, Earthmover in 1998, Castle Mane in 1999, Kingscliff in 2003, Cappa Bleu in 2009 and Salsify in 2012. Salsify is the joint-youngest horse in the race again and obviously well fancied after winning it as a seven-year-old last season.

Of the last 27 winners, all but five had also been successful on their previous outing so that would be second strong negative pattern and certainly means that Coombe Hill, Current Exchange, Faasel, Keenan’s Future, Louis Pasteur, Merchant Royal, Oscar Delta, Rumbury Grey and Tricky Trickster are not for me. In fact, the 1-2-3 in four of the last five years had also won last time out (just a 1-2 on the other occasion).

Previous form in the CGA Foxhunter Steeplechase is worthy of strong consideration and three winners going back to 2004 contested the race 12 months earlier. Since Double Silk won back-to-back runnings in 1993/94, the finishing position of the reigning title holder (Salsify) that returned 12 months later reads: 5P36204U which isn’t great but he was a young horse last season that is probably still improving unlike most of those. Last season’s second and third, Chapoturgeon and Oscar Delta, are also back for another crack as are Merchant Royal (7th) Keenan’s Future (14th).

The Irish have been strong in the hunter chasing division over the last half a dozen years and Salsify gave the raiders a second victory on the spin following on from Zemsky with Oscar Delta finishing third on both occasions. It also wasn’t so long ago that they were responsible for nine of the 12 top-four finishers between 2006-2008. In addition to Salsify, they are also represented by Oscar Delta (third for the last two years), Gordon Elliott’s Backstage who has won his last seven starts (all in point-to-points but just one run this season) and Merchant Royal. Four-time Foxhunters’ winning trainer, Richard Barber, almost completed the nap hand last season when Chapoturgeon only found Salsify a length too good when sent off the 3/1 favourite.

In total contrast to the Aintree Fox Hunters, it is horses that started their career in point-to-points or hunter chases that have been dominating the Cheltenham equivalent. Whereas eight of the last 11 winners of the Aintree Fox Hunters’ were ex-handicappers (or better) that had their attentions turned to hunting chasing, 21 of the last 24 winners of this prize were brought up from a point-to-pointing background. Those that did not start life in a point-to-point or hunter chase are Galant Nuit, Faasel, Tricky Trickster, Backstage, Chapoturgeon, Cottage Oak, Earth Dream, Hoopy, Merchant Royal, Radetsky March and That’s Rhythm.

Short List

Salsify
Cottage Oak
Chapoturgeon

Conclusion

Last year’s race is a good guide, the Irish have fared well of late and backing the shortest priced of the youngest horses in the race has produced many winners so last year’s classy winner SALSIFY (for whom the ground is drying up nicely for) who hails from the point-to-point field from the start unlike the horses that follow him in the betting is the obvious trends choice even if its has been 18 years since the last back-to-back winner (though ten horses didn’t turn up to defend their title in that period). He also won the same trial in Ireland last month last time out as he did last year. Last-time-out winners under the age of 11 is usually pretty safe and top of those that appeals most is COTTAGE OAK with the ground also coming in his favour. The only negative is he is not originally from a point-to-point background but of the 21 of the last 24 winners to start off between the flags, the three that did not were in the last seven years. Having finished second in last year’s race (the best guide given the hunter chase at Punchestown last spring was abandoned) CHAPOTURGEON is also a serious player and especially combined with the fact he is trained by Richard Barber who has prepared as many as four winners of this down the years. He is still in the right age bracket and won in facile fashion last time out at Newbury. Creevytennant has won at Cheltenham but his trainer reports he is better on right-handed courses so the former close-up Kim Muir third GALANT NUIT gets the final berth. Like Cottage Oak he didn’t start off in points, but he is at the right address for the Cheltenham Festival (Ferdy Murphy) and has been quietly winning his point-to-points this season. What A Laugh, Divine Intavention and Benevictus are also last-time-out winners under the age of 11 but I am uncomfortable suggesting more than four horses for a short list for a non handicap and they would appear to have it to do on pure form.



Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle

Just four years to work off so trends are thin on the ground. The most striking factor so far is that all four winners were second-season hurdlers in a race that has so far been dominated by the up-and-coming brigade. Of the 16 horses to pay a place dividend, only two were not in their first or second season over timber (both were third-season hurdlers). The majority will be first or second season hurdlers so I will list the minority that are not and who therefore don’t interest me from a trends perspective; Solix, Toner D’Oudairies, First Avenue, Havingotascoobydo, Act Of Kalanisi, Stopped Out, Nagpur, Harry Hunt, Art Professor and Paint The Clouds.

To all intents and purposes, this is basically a limited handicap with less than a stone covering the whole field for all four runnings. Therefore there has to be an argument for keeping it simple and attempting to identify the best horse in the race as attempting to plot one up like for the novice chase version of this race ion Tuesday which was won by the top weight. For example, 24 runners faced the starter last season and it was two horses in the top six in the weights that fought out the finish. The previous season’s top weight, Son Of Flicka, came desperately close to giving weight away all round only being reeled in within 20 yards of the winning post by Sir Des Champs and, 12 months earlier, Pause And Clause, carried second-top weight of 11st 10lbs to victory underlining the class angle again. On that basis, I would say give extra attention to those in the top third of the weights.

Nicky Henderson has had a right crack in the first four runnings where he has already notched up as many as six top-five finishers including taking the inaugural running with the runaway winner, Andytown, before preparing the second, fourth and fifth the following season. Two third-place finishes in the last two years have cemented his extremely good start to this race and it is also worth highlighting that four of the six Henderson-trained horses to have recorded a top-five position also had winning course form so pay particular attention to those. This time he runs his mares, Kells Belle and Ma Filleule. Not quite the 13 he said he might run at his media day!

How David Pipe must wish for a similar record to Henderson in what he calls “Dad’s Race” but it just hasn’t fallen right for him so far. For understandable reasons there will be plenty of focus on the yard’s entries again but just one Pipe’s 13 runners has hit the frame. His only runner this year is the likely favourite, Gevrey Chambertin.

Irish-based stables haven’t tackled this race in numbers as yet with just eight runners in four years but Sir Des Champs was their sole representative when successful two years ago and their two raiders finished second and fourth 12 months ago so they should be kept very much on your radar and especially if owned by Gigginstown House Stud as all three carried their maroon and white silks. Make Your Mark and Edeymi represent Gigginstown this year in addition to last season’s second Toner D’Oudairies.

I wouldn’t go too mad on this but, for the record, jockeys claiming 3lbs were responsible for the 1-2-3-4 last season meaning that they dominated the race for the second year running as they also filled eight of the first ten places in 2011.

Short List

Edeymi
Ma Filleule
Make Your Mark
Salubrious
(Toner D’Oudaries)

Conclusion

EDEYMI appeals on trends being a second-season hurdler that has run well at the course before (second in the Fred Winter last year) like two other winners and represents an owner whose three runners in the race have finished first, third and fourth and he is also in the top third in the weights. The on-fire Willie Mullins won this for Gigginstown two years ago so his MAKE YOUR MARK (who ran in the Neptune last year) is also interesting. Let’s go for the Gigginstown full house and also short list last year’s narrow runner-up TONER D’OUDARIES even if he is a third-season hurdler as he was cruising coming to the final flight but was just beaten by a neck and he is only 2lbs higher this years. Given Nicky Henderson’s record, we should one his pair and I prefer the younger MA FILLEULE who his trainer suggested as his best handicap chance of the week at the Sandown Preview Evening on Saturday. Paul Nicholls’ SALUBRIOUS towards the top of the handicap would be my other short listed horse. He is open to improvement on just his sixth hurdles start and he is a last time out who have won approximately 50% of all handicap hurdles at the Festival since 1993 and looks well handicapped on his second to At Fisher Cross at the Hennessy Meeting.



Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase


Oiseau De Nuit became the highest-rated winner since 1997 when successful off a handicap mark of 145 two years ago and in doing so he also put an end to the 0-46 record of horses set to carry over 11st before jockeys’ allowances since Edredon Bleu won in 1998. The last winner to be officially rated over 145 was My Young Man 21 years ago though Tanks For That finished second off 149 last year. That’s strong enough to make me overlook the top eight in the handicap; Petit Robin, French Opera, His Excellency, Tanks For That, Kumbeshwar, Oiseau De Nuit, Benefficient and Ulck Du Lin.

Nine of the last 12 winners were officially rated between 129-134 (and they also paid out winning straight forecasts in 2000, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006 and 2008) but fewer horses are getting in off that kind of rating these days as the race grows in quality. Qualifiers, however, this season are Parsnip Pete and Gus Macrae.

Novices has a better than one-in-three strike rate over the last three decades or so which is particularly catching (won 12 of the last 31 runnings) but more and more are running these days so the edge is slipping away as choosing from two or three is a darn sight easier than from six or seven. This season’s novices are the Arkle third, His Excellency, Benefficient (if he turns out again 24 hours after his Jewson win), Drumshambo, Marshal Zhukov, Tetlami, Alderwood, Viva Colonia and Parsnip Pete.

Given that novices have such a strong Grand Annual record, it should not come as a shock to note that lightly-raced chasers very much hold the call to the extent that 13 of the last 14 winners had contested no more than 12 steeplechases. Therefore, if you are going to oppose a first-season chaser, I strongly advise that you keep the faith with a young, progressive horse especially in light of the fact that 49 of the last 56 win-and-placed horses were filled by horses under the age of ten. Horses aged in double figures to oppose are Petit Robin, French Opera, Tanks For That, Oiseau De Nuit, Oh Crick and King Edmund.

Seven of the last eight British-trained winners had won at Cheltenham before with last year’s winner, Bellvano, being the exception. That is a positive for French Opera, His Excellency, Thanks For That, Oiseau De Nuit, Tetlami, Alderwood, Shooters Wood, Oh Crick and Tatenen.

Nicky Henderson has held a strong record since this handicap was named in his father’s honour in 2004 which included a 1-2-4 last season in addition to Greenhope winning in 2006. In fact since 2004, the Seven Barrows team have saddled two winners, three runners-up (two of which were novices) and two other placed horses from 24 runners and they have attacked the race in style this year by declaring Petit Robin, French Opera, Tanks For That, Kid Cassidy, Tetlami and Anquetta. Punters have latched onto Paul Nicholls in a big way by sending off one of his representatives favourite in five of the last nine seasons collecting twice courtesy of St Pirran and Andreas and he runs Ulck Du Lin and Shooters Wood.

Having posted four winners and three seconds in the Grand Annual during the last 13 renewals, outside of the cross-country race, this is the handicap chase at the Festival that the Irish have sussed out how to crack. It is not just the Grand National for which Irish trainers like to keep their chase mark protected before the weights are issued as their last three Grand Annual winners all had their final spin over hurdles (as did Nicky Henderson’s Greenhope). Their runners this season are Benefficient (if he runs) and Alderwood.

Since Katabatic won following a 60-day absence back in 1990, of the subsequent 21 Grand Annual winners, only Fota Island has won this Festival handicap following a break of over of 45 days. Maybe it is a coincidence or maybe it isn’t but the last two horses to defy over a 45-day absence had the class to win or finish second in the Queen Mother Champion Chase 12 months later. Horses off the course for longer than 45 days are Kumbeshwar, Ulck Du Lin, Kid Cassidy, Rody,

Short List
ALDERWOOD
TETLAMI
PARSNIP PETE
GUS MACRAE
ANQUETTA

Conclusion

Once we take out those too high in the ratings, too old or have been off the course too long, it’s a case of which of the remaining 12 horses hit the most positive trends and TETLAMI and ALDERWOOD come out on top being novices, course winners and either trained by Henderson or in Ireland. Alderwood is the narrow preference being a previous Festival winner who is off a lower mark than his hurdles rating and owned by J P McManus who has had a winner of this race and a number of others run very well. The bottom two in the handicap fit into the ratings category so I will also include the novice PARSNIP PETE plus GUS MACRAE and I would like one more Henderson horse given his fine record so the lightly-weight ANQUETTA gets that vote having finished fourth in this race last year

[Donny B.]

Dad's nap for the day is Our Conor in the 1.30. Odds not great though.

Not sure who to go for in the Gold Cup. Da's tip is the favourite Bob's Worth, but odds are cr@p. Lot of money on Sir Des Champs but how much will he miss Davey Russell? Have a feeling for Silviniaco Conti, but is that just Ruby worship blinding me? And Long Run won very well two years ago and is still a fine horse. Decisions, decisions.

[beaker1]

i think the reason theres alot of money for sir des champs is because mcoy,s on it

[Donny B.]

i think the reason theres alot of money for sir des champs is because mcoy,s on it

Oh they bought in McCoy? Interesting.

[Broken Wing]

SunnyHillBoy is out of the Gold Cup.

[Donny B.]

Big gamble on Our Vinnie in the 2.40. Was 14/1 and is now 6/1

[Darce]

f%~k it, just lumped a 10er each way on Sir Deschamps

[Donny B.]

f%~k it, just lumped a 10er each way on Sir Deschamps

Was tempted but instead backed Long Run and Silviniaco Conti. Will probably regret it, but feck it, it's done now.

I've a horrible feeling some 14/15 to 1 shot will come out of the field and beat the lot of them anyway!

[Donny B.]

Dad's nap for the day is Our Conor in the 1.30. Odds not great though.

Wohoo!!! Romped home. Fair play to the old man out of four tips, 2 winners and a place this week.

Went heavy on him so that puts me level for the week now. Anything else will be a bonus.

[waterboy]

After yesterdays massacre I wasn't going to put anything on today. Got a free bet, so just stuck it on Sir Deschamps

[Donny B.]

After yesterdays massacre I wasn't going to put anything on today. Got a free bet, so just stuck it on Sir Deschamps

It's pissing rain down there now and I believe he's more fond of the firm ground right? Wonder if we'll see the money go away from him. In fairness the money went a bit cold on Our Conor too and you saw what happened there.

[waterboy]

After yesterdays massacre I wasn't going to put anything on today. Got a free bet, so just stuck it on Sir Deschamps

It's pissing rain down there now and I believe he's more fond of the firm ground right? Wonder if we'll see the money go away from him. In fairness the money went a bit cold on Our Conor too and you saw what happened there.

you could well be right, but I wasn't arsed putting any thought or effort into my pick!!!

[Donny B.]

Back to the glorious seconds!!! Was on Tennis Cap there!

[Donny B.]

After yesterdays massacre I wasn't going to put anything on today. Got a free bet, so just stuck it on Sir Deschamps

It's pissing rain down there now and I believe he's more fond of the firm ground right? Wonder if we'll see the money go away from him. In fairness the money went a bit cold on Our Conor too and you saw what happened there.

you could well be right, but I wasn't arsed putting any thought or effort into my pick!!!

In fairness, that's generally where I go wrong!

[waterboy]

When it comes to gambling overthinking it usually ends up with failure! That's what I'm blaming yesterdays efforts on!!

[Donny B.]

When it comes to gambling overthinking it usually ends up with failure! That's what I'm blaming yesterdays efforts on!!

My old man was tipping Bob's Worth but I knew better. That's why he's about 500 up on today and 800 up on the whole meeting and I was happy to just break even I guess.