I may be wrong here so correct me if so - i am just obsessing about it;
Here is a dream line of results;
Cardiff beat Cally - dont matter, nothing riding on it - theyre first seeds.
Glou to lose - takes them out of the running for runner up spot
Quins to lose without a bonus - relegates them to last qualifyer
Munster to lose with a bonus
Ospreys to beat the tigers 9-0
Bath to beat toul and limit them to no bonus
us to win with a bonus and wasps to win without a bonus
1 cardiff
2 bath
3 leinster
4 leicster
5 munster
6 quins
7 ospreys
8 wasps
car v wasps
bath v ospreys
leinster v quins
leicster v munster
This is what we need for safer passge;
gloucester lose
ospreys lose
toulouse lose
if the first two results happen we can qualify with a win is a win is a win.
For a more realistic home quarter (fourth seed) We need a bonus point win, and;
2 of the following;
munster to lose
quins to lose
tigers to lose with no bonus, and preferably ospreys without a winning bonus
this is by virtue of the fact that cardiff and bath/toull are garaunteed to be seeded above us (a draw excepting)
we have 15 trys - cardiff, bath and tigers ahead of us (from memory)
Disaster zone line of results;
If we fail to win our group – 4pts (no trys) while wasps bonus castres and if any more than one of the following happen;
Gloucester to win with bonus point. (need trys)
Ospreys to Beat Leicster with a bonus, no bonus for tigers
If both those happen and then we get 4 pts and no try’s we are out, despite the win.
If one of those happens, then we get our whelming 4 pointer, THEN,
Toull beat bath and bath get a losing bonus point – we are out.
Shakedown for the quarters
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