Shaun Edwards on the Final

[mhow]

Crane can lift Leicester in Heineken Cup final of contrasting stylesThis weekend's European rugby summit at Murrayfield could be decided by a moment of individual brilliance

Lions tours have a reputation for being gruelling, attritional affairs, but to lose three men in a day before you even step on the plane has to be some kind of bad-luck record. Once Alan Quinlan was banned there was a feeling that an appeal was unlikely to win him a reprieve and the severity of Leigh Halfpenny's injury kind of crept up on us, but when Jerry Flannery chipped his elbow in training it felt the gods might be wearing Springbok shirts. I hope not because we're depending on them to guide seven more Lions safely through European finals this weekend.

It's going to be a nail-biting couple of days waiting for them to join up with us prior to flying to South Africa on Sunday. Brian O'Driscoll, Rob Kearney, Luke Fitzgerald, James Heaslip, Harry Ellis and Tom Croft, called up to replace Quinlan, will be burying themselves in Heineken Cup action at Murrayfield tomorrow, while Euan Murray will be battling with Bourgoin tonight to see who takes the Challenge Trophy. The only thing of which we can be certain is that the survivors will have 10 days to rest their bones. None of the seven will be chosen for the Lions' opening game at Rustenburg – I'm told it means Restful Place or some such – in eight days.

As for the final, that will be a bit of a nail-biter as well. On one side you have the new-look, harder-nosed Leinster; on the other there is a not-quite-reborn-but-certainly-a-freer-spirit Leicester. One side tightening up its game; the other discovering the joys of a more open rugby. The result will come down to fractions, possibly an individual performance. A week ago I might have gone for Leicester, but in the Premiership final against London Irish they made more mistakes in the first half than they had in the previous three games put together. A more experienced side would have put them away.

As always, Richard Cockerill's selection will be fascinating, especially with Alesana Tuilagi available after his five-week ban and Martin Castrogiovanni recovering from his sore neck. Will Cockerill counter Leinster's increasingly robust scrum with the traditional set-piece values of Julian White or does he go for the Castrogiovanni X-factor in open play.

As with all things in selection it will be a trade-off, but I can't see Cockerill switching from back row that has done him proud in the battle of the breakdown. Craig Newby, Ben Woods and Jordan Crane are a nicely balanced unit, with Crane fast reaching cult status at Welford Road. First there was the kick in the penalty shoot-out against Cardiff and then last week his nose for a direct line won Leicester the game.

That keeps Croft in the second row alongside Ben Kay, a 33-year-old well worth his place in England's summer squad for the Barbarians and Argentina. In the absence of Martin Corry it's been interesting to see Kay displaying almost magisterial authority whenever the forward pot boils over. With Sam Vesty and Julien Dupuy calling the shots and the class of Murphy and Scott Hamilton at the back, Leicester look a winning combination until you rerun the mental footage of Leinster's semi-final victory over Munster at Croke Park – a game I know the Munster contingent with the Lions is still smarting over. However, Leinster were exceptional defensively.

Once upon a time first thoughts of Leinster conjured up magnificent attacking backs such as Brian O'Driscoll, Gordon D'Arcy and Felipe Contepomi. Now you think Jamie Heaslip, Rocky Elsom, Shane Jennings.

There were hints that Michael Cheika was getting the balance better when Leinster undid Leicester at the Dublin Showground in the opening rounds of last year's Heineken Cup when the pragmatic needs of playing against both the elements and a stronger pack won out over attacking ambition. Any doubts Cheika had gone one stage further this season were set aside completely last month when Leinster visited London and held out for a one-point win against Harlequins in the quarter-final.

However, we at Wasps had already suffered back in October. Then Leinster beat us by 30 points and I got my first good look at a 23-year-old fly-half who could be the key to tomorrow's result. Johnny Sexton impressed when he came on for O'Driscoll. Tomorrow he is likely to replace Leinster's injured playmaker, Contepomi, and I feel the occasion could revolve around the fly-half's game. If he retains his poise, executes his tactical kicking and runs the game as Wasps know he can, then I think Leicester might struggle. But if Crane and co ruffle him then who knows? But like so many big games this year, you have to feel that it will be tight.