A whiff of Cordite

[Oldschool]

I said after the game on Saturday that we didn't need to panic about anything but upon reflection I'm a bit worried about Johnny. He's just not as quick as he was and that isn't something that will come back with games. Fast forward a year and the Champions Cup final will be close to his 35th birthday and he'll probably have had another World Cup and 6N under his belt, what state is he likely to be in by then?

The fact that he isn't as much of a threat as he used to be makes it much easier for teams to target Ringrose because they know they're not totally screwed if he gets the ball away to Johnny. I don't think we're doing enough to hold defenders on the inside and that leads to us going sideways quite a bit once we do move it wide. Maybe Larmour's pace at 15 would help but he's a habit of going sideways when he hits the line too. Felipe definitely needs to work on it IMO and with Henshaw and COB as options we have the perfect 12s to work off so should be doing better. I'm a huge fan of Ross Byrne but he doesn't have much pace either and not sure he'd have made a positive impact on Saturday. He might have against other sides but I wouldn't have wanted us to kick crossfield to Sarries too often and that's his greatest weapon.

Not saying we're screwed, but we need to adjust to not having that much pace at ten and need to do a better job of not ending up facing the touchline when we move the ball wide.

That's a pretty good bit of reassessment and analysis.
The only thing that I would add and you've implied it but I'll be more specific.
Johnny will be a year older but Ross will be a year more experienced.
Johnny's decline based on history with other players will be quick. The drop off has already been quite substantial.

[arsebiscuits1]

I said after the game on Saturday that we didn't need to panic about anything but upon reflection I'm a bit worried about Johnny. He's just not as quick as he was and that isn't something that will come back with games. Fast forward a year and the Champions Cup final will be close to his 35th birthday and he'll probably have had another World Cup and 6N under his belt, what state is he likely to be in by then?

The fact that he isn't as much of a threat as he used to be makes it much easier for teams to target Ringrose because they know they're not totally screwed if he gets the ball away to Johnny. I don't think we're doing enough to hold defenders on the inside and that leads to us going sideways quite a bit once we do move it wide. Maybe Larmour's pace at 15 would help but he's a habit of going sideways when he hits the line too. Felipe definitely needs to work on it IMO and with Henshaw and COB as options we have the perfect 12s to work off so should be doing better. I'm a huge fan of Ross Byrne but he doesn't have much pace either and not sure he'd have made a positive impact on Saturday. He might have against other sides but I wouldn't have wanted us to kick crossfield to Sarries too often and that's his greatest weapon.

Not saying we're screwed, but we need to adjust to not having that much pace at ten and need to do a better job of not ending up facing the touchline when we move the ball wide.

That's a pretty good bit of reassessment and analysis.
The only thing that I would add and you've implied it but I'll be more specific.
Johnny will be a year older but Ross will be a year more experienced.
Johnny's decline based on history with other players will be quick. The drop off has already been quite substantial.

6 months on from the best form of his career and a very good showing against Toulouse??

[Oldschool]

I said after the game on Saturday that we didn't need to panic about anything but upon reflection I'm a bit worried about Johnny. He's just not as quick as he was and that isn't something that will come back with games. Fast forward a year and the Champions Cup final will be close to his 35th birthday and he'll probably have had another World Cup and 6N under his belt, what state is he likely to be in by then?

The fact that he isn't as much of a threat as he used to be makes it much easier for teams to target Ringrose because they know they're not totally screwed if he gets the ball away to Johnny. I don't think we're doing enough to hold defenders on the inside and that leads to us going sideways quite a bit once we do move it wide. Maybe Larmour's pace at 15 would help but he's a habit of going sideways when he hits the line too. Felipe definitely needs to work on it IMO and with Henshaw and COB as options we have the perfect 12s to work off so should be doing better. I'm a huge fan of Ross Byrne but he doesn't have much pace either and not sure he'd have made a positive impact on Saturday. He might have against other sides but I wouldn't have wanted us to kick crossfield to Sarries too often and that's his greatest weapon.

Not saying we're screwed, but we need to adjust to not having that much pace at ten and need to do a better job of not ending up facing the touchline when we move the ball wide.

That's a pretty good bit of reassessment and analysis.
The only thing that I would add and you've implied it but I'll be more specific.
Johnny will be a year older but Ross will be a year more experienced.
Johnny's decline based on history with other players will be quick. The drop off has already been quite substantial.

6 months on from the best form of his career and a very good showing against Toulouse??

Unfortunately the evidence from 6Ns is more telling.

[arsebiscuits1]

6 months on from the best form of his career and a very good showing against Toulouse??

Unfortunately the evidence from 6Ns is more telling.

How fickle fans can be.

A 5 week period where he was marginally off the boil (along with the team around him) and you seem to think you've the right to call it a substantial decline??

[Oldschool]

6 months on from the best form of his career and a very good showing against Toulouse??

Unfortunately the evidence from 6Ns is more telling.

How fickle fans can be.

A 5 week period where he was marginally off the boil (along with the team around him) and you seem to think you've the right to call it a substantial decline??

Nothing to do with fickleness.
Johnny has not been in good form for quite a while now.
That's at least significant.
The evidence from the 6Ns is, at the very least, worrying.
I'm willing to except that describing it as substantial is, perhaps, an over statement.

[TerenureJim]

Has Sexton not all but said he was playing with an injury 6n time?

[olaf the fat]

Nothing to do with fickleness.
Johnny has not been in good form for quite a while now.
That's at least significant.
The evidence from the 6Ns is, at the very least, worrying.
I'm willing to except that describing it as substantial is, perhaps, an over statement.

Had Kearney not been harshly pinged for being pinned under BV & had Ringrose passed right rather taking contact, neither of which Sexton had much control over - that 14 point swing has him lifting the cup after another solid display. Slim margins at this level in a 15+ game between "not good" and "very good".

In fairness though, this wont be held up as a vintage season for Sexton. Maybe its the transition between young and bold & cute and old.

[Oldschool]

Has Sexton not all but said he was playing with an injury 6n time?

That's not good enough.
If a player declares himself fit then he's fit and his performance is open to scrutiny in the normal way.
Changing the story afterwards isn't on.
Joe doesn't come come out of thus smelling of roses either. At the very least, recognizing Sexton wasn't playing well he should have been at least prepared to substitute him earlier than he actually did.
Anyway that's spilt milk, what is important is to recognise that there may be an ongoing issue and to be prepared to react.

[Oldschool]

Nothing to do with fickleness.
Johnny has not been in good form for quite a while now.
That's at least significant.
The evidence from the 6Ns is, at the very least, worrying.
I'm willing to except that describing it as substantial is, perhaps, an over statement.

Had Kearney not been harshly pinged for being pinned under BV & had Ringrose passed right rather taking contact, neither of which Sexton had much control over - that 14 point swing has him lifting the cup after another solid display. Slim margins at this level in a 15+ game between "not good" and "very good".

In fairness though, this wont be held up as a vintage season for Sexton. Maybe its the transition between young and bold & cute and old.

Tbf to Sexton it's not in his personality to be cute.
He'll be confrontational to the end which isn't sustainable.

[Peg Leg]

Nothing to do with fickleness.
Johnny has not been in good form for quite a while now.
That's at least significant.
The evidence from the 6Ns is, at the very least, worrying.
I'm willing to except that describing it as substantial is, perhaps, an over statement.

Had Kearney not been harshly pinged for being pinned under BV & had Ringrose passed right rather taking contact, neither of which Sexton had much control over - that 14 point swing has him lifting the cup after another solid display. Slim margins at this level in a 15+ game between "not good" and "very good".

In fairness though, this wont be held up as a vintage season for Sexton. Maybe its the transition between young and bold & cute and old.

Tbf to Sexton it's not in his personality to be cute.
He'll be confrontational to the end which isn't sustainable.

That is a ridiculous statement to make. Perhaps he's been so cute to the extent that you have missed that aspect of his personality/style from your seat in the stand.

[backrower8]

Somewhat understandably, given his track record and he being World POTY 2019, we are too vested in Johnny, our key player for Leinster and Ireland , who will be 34 in 2 months and is contracted for another 2 years.

Even if he was 28 it would be fair to say that everything is shaped too much around him in both teams. He casts a long shadow over his would be successors to the extent that, when he plays in important matches, he either doesn't come off at all or only at the death. This is regardless of how he is playing, whether the team needs a change in style/tempo/ a fresh body, or whether or not he needs a HIA (as was the case in the last quarter last Saturday).

It is now too late to build in new capacity before the RWC and we have similar issues at 2 + Captaincy (where Best will soon be 37), 9 & 15 (33).

Over the next 2 years Leinster have a serious clearout to contend with on top of Isa, Jamie, Joey, Jordi, Jack and Seanie with the ageing profiles by 2021 of Cian (34 by season 2021/22), Cronin (35 by season 2021/22), Dev (35 by season 2021/22), Johnny (36 by season 2021/22), Ferg (35 by season 2021/22) and Rob (35 by season 2021/22).

I appreciate that we have great graduate talent coming through but I don't see that we have people in our ranks to replace Cian, Cronin, Dev, Johnny or Rob. Some are close, but most are a grade or two lower than these guys were 10 years ago.

[Peg Leg]

Couldn't disagree with much of that other than to say
1. That Ross B was the 10 that got us through to the p14 semi in record time.
B. The coaches will have to identify a new way to play to the strengths of the squad, rather than looking to replicate plays with new faces growing into their roles.

I think one of TTFKAM's biggest difficulties was in trying/forcing themselves to (post pennyball) play the same gameplan with like for like replacements, when at the time there was no such thing as a like for like replacement for Wallace, ROG, Fla, POC, Howlett.

[ronk]

.

Over the next 2 years Leinster have a serious clearout to contend with on top of Isa, Jamie, Joey, Jordi, Jack and Seanie with the ageing profiles by 2021 of Cian (34 by season 2021/22), Cronin (35 by season 2021/22), Dev (35 by season 2021/22), Johnny (36 by season 2021/22), Ferg (35 by season 2021/22) and Rob (35 by season 2021/22).

I appreciate that we have great graduate talent coming through but I don't see that we have people in our ranks to replace Cian, Cronin, Dev, Johnny or Rob. Some are close, but most are a grade or two lower than these guys were 10 years ago.

You never replace those guys with someone who plays the exact same role to the same level. Trying to do that leads to bigger failure.

The situation isn't bad. That's not so many players and theres time. Its not trivial but the overall age profile is low and can make signings if one or two positions emerge as an issue.

Dunne, Ryan2 and Baird are different players to Dev but there's talent there and the game changes. Ryan1 is super.

Sexton will obviously be missed by any team.

Kearney will be replaced by Henshaw or (more likely) someone who plays the creative fullback role more.

[backrower8]

I didn’t say they would be replaced by players that play the exact same.

I appreciate your ‘can do’ approach but the churn in these 4 years (we are at the mid-point) includes the unprecedented loss of a significant number of the greatest players ever in the history Irish rugby, including some of the best in their individual positions: Cian, Dev, Seánie, Jamie, Johnny, Isa & Rob. 2 gone, 5 to go in 2 years plus Jack, Cronin, Fardy, Jordi and Joey. That is assuming that Dan get’s back too.

Are you predicting that we will be as good/better when this cycle is done (assuming we don’t resort to mass imports)? I am predicting a dip.

[mildlyinterested]

that was our best chance at a 5th star for awhile I fear, no shame in that but just reality based on limits placed upon us by IRFU and the natural peaks and troughs teams go through.

[riocard911]

All the more reason to be thankful for the fact, that we've Stuart Lancaster involved in bringing through the next cohort of Leinster stars!

[Oldschool]

I didn’t say they would be replaced by players that play the exact same.

I appreciate your ‘can do’ approach but the churn in these 4 years (we are at the mid-point) includes the unprecedented loss of a significant number of the greatest players ever in the history Irish rugby, including some of the best in their individual positions: Cian, Dev, Seánie, Jamie, Johnny, Isa & Rob. 2 gone, 5 to go in 2 years plus Jack, Cronin, Fardy, Jordi and Joey. That is assuming that Dan get’s back too.

Are you predicting that we will be as good/better when this cycle is done (assuming we don’t resort to mass imports)? I am predicting a dip.

You're right about a dip and it can be argued that the transition has already begun, triggered by a combination of injuries, age and the departure of some of the next generation.
However I think we'll still be competitive even at HCC level. Leinster are quite likely to make the SFs again next season with the caveat that RWC demands for Leinster players could have a major impact.
Failure to make the RWC SFs would of course alleviate the situation so it would be wise to hold off on HCC predictions for the moment.
In fact we could find the Pro14 more difficult than the HCC simply because of the number of games per season involved.
The Pro14 is becoming more competitive each season and next season looks like it will be the toughest yet.
As a counter to the dip, it has to be said that Leostar have done an awful lot this season to accelerate the introduction of the next generation.
In LeoStar we trust.

[Peg Leg]

I didn’t say they would be replaced by players that play the exact same.

I appreciate your ‘can do’ approach but the churn in these 4 years (we are at the mid-point) includes the unprecedented loss of a significant number of the greatest players ever in the history Irish rugby, including some of the best in their individual positions: Cian, Dev, Seánie, Jamie, Johnny, Isa & Rob. 2 gone, 5 to go in 2 years plus Jack, Cronin, Fardy, Jordi and Joey. That is assuming that Dan get’s back too.

Are you predicting that we will be as good/better when this cycle is done (assuming we don’t resort to mass imports)? I am predicting a dip.

There is certainly a lot more room in the dip than there is at the peak.

[riocard911]

I didn’t say they would be replaced by players that play the exact same.

I appreciate your ‘can do’ approach but the churn in these 4 years (we are at the mid-point) includes the unprecedented loss of a significant number of the greatest players ever in the history Irish rugby, including some of the best in their individual positions: Cian, Dev, Seánie, Jamie, Johnny, Isa & Rob. 2 gone, 5 to go in 2 years plus Jack, Cronin, Fardy, Jordi and Joey. That is assuming that Dan get’s back too.

Are you predicting that we will be as good/better when this cycle is done (assuming we don’t resort to mass imports)? I am predicting a dip.

There is certainly a lot more room in the dip than there is at the peak.

For sure. But the likelihood of us falling behind Zebre and the Southern Kings is not very high, buíochas le Dia!!!!

[Dave Cahill]

I didn’t say they would be replaced by players that play the exact same.

I appreciate your ‘can do’ approach but the churn in these 4 years (we are at the mid-point) includes the unprecedented loss of a significant number of the greatest players ever in the history Irish rugby, including some of the best in their individual positions: Cian, Dev, Seánie, Jamie, Johnny, Isa & Rob. 2 gone, 5 to go in 2 years plus Jack, Cronin, Fardy, Jordi and Joey. That is assuming that Dan get’s back too.

Are you predicting that we will be as good/better when this cycle is done (assuming we don’t resort to mass imports)? I am predicting a dip.

We've done it before, all top teams do it.

Compare the semifinals against ASM CA - in 2012 (which I would argue was absolute peak Leinster, that season the rugby Leinster played was the best this province has ever played, in any guise and the team was at its most dominant) and in 2017 (when we were firmly on the upward track again)

R. Kearney
I. Nacewa
B. O'Driscoll
G. D'Arcy
L. Fitzgerald
J. Sexton
I. Boss
C. Healy
R. Strauss
M. Ross
L. Cullen
B. Thorn
S. O'Brien
S. Jennings
J. Heaslip

S. Cronin
H. Van der Merwe
N. White
D. Toner
K. McLaughlin
E. Reddan
I. Madigan
F. McFadden



J. Carbery
F. McFadden
G. Ringrose
R. Henshaw
I. Nacewa
J. Sexton
L. McGrath
J. McGrath
R. Strauss
T. Furlong
D. Toner
H. Triggs
R. Ruddock
D. Leavy
J. Conan

S. Cronin
P. Dooley
M. Bent
R. Molony
J. van der Flier
J. Gibson-Park
R. Byrne
Z. Kirchner



Only 5 of the former starting XV were at the club for the latter game, and two of those had left and returned in the interim. Thats a turnover of 13 starting players that were successfully replaced (even if by themselves) and when you add in new additions like the two Jameses, Ryan and Lowe, or Jordan Larmour or the guys who were injured for one match or the other.

Then you take into account guys who are starting to make breakthroughs, like various O'Briens, Byrnes, Penny, Deegan, Doris and our cadre of locks

We don't worry about two years down the line now, we would have planned for that 3 years ago - this year we're planning for 2024 and beyond where things are looking good when you take into account the new guys already breaking through and the Leinster players on the u20s grand slam team et al.

We might never have another Ringrose or Sexton or Leavy or Conan again, but then again we thought we'd never have another BOD or Darce or SOB or Heaslip either and we ended up doing okay