Irush rugby, the Provinces and the National Team

[blaker]

Having read a number of threads on munsterfans, and noting some articles/comments from D’Arcy, BOD and online, the question of where Irish rugby stands and goes from here is clearly a live one. I’m laid up at home so started scribbling and this has ended up very long. I’m not sure much, if anything below is new or uniquely insightful but I found it interesting to consider it all in one ball.

Big Picture

The Provinces and National Team are intertwined. Without the Province’s there are no players for the National Team. Without the National Team there is no money for Provincial players (within the current way the whole shebang is structured. You cannot consider either in isolation.

As a base, I see very clear parallels between the environment which the National Team and the Provinces operate in.
· I think both have an outlier competitor who should be used as an ultimate, but very unlikely goal but not as a direct comparison; Toulon and New Zealand. The Provinces/National Team cannot produce a team like Toulon or New Zealand. They are a competitor however we should NOT compare our performance as an organization as a whole nor the tactics we use as an Organisation to achieve our strategies to them as they have options and tools we do not. It is an unfair and futile comparison that does us a disservice and stifles innovation. That’s is NOT to say they are unbeatable, and that we throw our hat at it, but rather treat them as occasional, monster encounters.
· Below that outlier competitor are a cabal of high end peers who we will not beat everyday but must use as a benchmark and aspire to be the best of. These are our “push/stretch goals”. In the province’s case it is Bath, Saracens, Leicester, Toulouse, Clermont, in the National Team’s case it is France, Australia, England, South Africa, Wales and, now, Argentina. Any victory against these teams is generally a positive and any season where you can say you are the best of them is, broadly, a good season. In contrast, not every loss is a bad loss or any case of “finishing second” at season’s end a bad season – context of injuries, performance, refs etc must be considered although such cases must be appraised to learn lessons and prevent recurrence.
· Each team has a bread and butter competition that they can realistically aim to win and must aim to win. The PRO12 for the Provinces, the 6 Nations for the National Team. In the context of the above, failing to win may not necessarily be a poor season BUT, failure to be involved at the sharp end must be.
· Each Team also has a “stretch” competition which, they are unlikely to win with any regularity, where their outlier competitor is generally successful however, similar to the stretch competitors, victory is a positive and failing to win not necessarily a negative. The Heineken for the Provinces and the World Cup for the National Team.
· Both Teams’ bread and butter competition has suffered a sharp dose of reality in the past 12 months. The destruction of NH rugby in the RWC and the change in power, structure, money distribution in the Heino and, most of all, the comparative performances of the FRA/Eng leagues v the PRO12 in the thing have left many, globally, questioning the relative merits of the 6N and P12.

Both entities, the National and Provinces are operating currently in an era of marked “macro” change. I would argue that the change in world rugby in the last 5 years is actually more significant than that of the first 5 years of professionalism
· The explosion of TV money in the game as a whole. BT, Canal plus etc.
· The marked shift in power to the French and English, leagues spraying money and the drawing of players from all nations into these two leagues.
· Foreign exchange rates which have moved in such a way as to benefit France and England, whether that be via the collapse of the Rand, the large drop in AUD or the drop in EURO v STG.
· The alterations to the Irish Tax breaks
· The advent of super owners, Wasps, Toulon, Bath, Saracens who are angling to shape the game in their image
· Global season discussions
· Rugby transfer fees
· The growth of sevens rugby and women’s rugby
· The rise of the “itinerant” player who’s club and even international affiliations are relatively fluid
· The growth in scale of previous near cottage scale events like the Lions and the RWC to global events drawing vast audiences and revenue
· The agitation in general away from the old way – union “blazers” to a more commercial, revenue and development focus.
· The decline of “local” leagues like the AIL, the Premiership in Wales, even the lower leagues in England as money and focus is drawn upwards.

Rugby at the top level is so far removed from that version that most of us played and which we probably romantically imagine it to be as to be a different sport. The developments above have already had, and will continue to have, very significant repercussions for the game as a whole. It is imperative that the Provincial and National teams are operating at a full competitive tilt so that they are entitled to a central involvement in any future restructuring or progressions. At the time of the Heino kerfuffle, people argued that Irish teams couldn’t possibly be omitted as we brought the fans and were super successful. Can anybody, hand on heart, say that if a Super League was formed tomorrow that Leinster and Munster would form part of the discussion if you were and English or French club owner?

If we are not at the top table we are feeding off scraps by definition. The bottom line in this is that we need to be utterly selfish and look after ourselves first, foremost and only. All of our partners to some extent have done just that in the past 2 years. Whether it is the French and English leagues in the Heino, the Scottish Union taking the BT dollar, the RFU facilitating their leagues, fockit, we’ve done it in the past in RWC voting and let’s not pretend we haven’t benefitted, even tacitly, from having all the machinations of world rugby in Dublin. I don’t “blame” the above for doing what they did and have no desire to reopen the debate. We have spent far too long, supporters and media, wallowing in the events of the past. We might not like it, we might wish it was different but Toulon and others are rich, the English league doesn’t have a salary cap, the Heino is gone (I like the name) - we are where we are and no amount of Thornley moaning or snide repetition will change that. We have to adapt and I’m not sure the IRFU have really taken that on board yet. I hate to say this but there is a pretty close comparison for us here. Football. TV revenue? Super clubs with rich owners? Subjugation of lesser leagues to a small number of super leagues? Secondary nature of internationals to clubs (Eng & Fra)? Player fees and moves? I hate the idea of it but it’s a live consideration.

Current Situation Provincially
Right now, it is probably more than likely that none of the 3 Irish provinces will be in the Heino QFs. Munster has just lost to both Connacht at home and the Dragons in two pretty abject displays. Why are we at a low ebb? For me everything comes down to a prioritization of Ireland over the Provinces. I accept this as perfectly valid but, in the new era, the manner and extent of the restrictions placed on the 4 teams must be reassessed. We are falling behind and if it is not addressed soon it may become self-fulfilling and, worst case chicken licken scenario, terminal.

Short term reasons;
1) World Cup Hangover (TM G Thornley). Hard to get away from this. Ireland (but also Scotland if one looks at Glasgow for instance) has a very small player pool that’s season structure, preparation, provincial integration – everything – has been totally disrupted by the RWC. Add the disappointment of the Irish team who went with designs on winning it and it has translated into many “flat” players. A one off and hard to avoid but the Provinces were hardly magnificent last year or the year before.
2) Injuries are crippling all 4 provinces right now. Connacht is looking very threadbare, Ulster’s last update was horrific, Munster is short all their main players and we’re in a rough spot despite probably being the best of the 4. Each province has suffered retirements of important players, still in prime playing age, due to injury. While our injury toll is bad, it is exacerbated by a lack of squad depth in general which I’ll touch on later. Hard to avoid this in our current guise.
Medium term reasons;
1) Lack of and/or quality of foreign signings. There are no world class foreign players in Leinster, Munster or Ulster. There are some good ones but no top tiers and many were punts (Teo, Nacewa’s second coming). Many are simply stop gaps that were used to buff out a squad in an injury situation ( Triggs, a couple of Munster lads) and some are straight up bad (Kirchener). We cannot sign a team of foreigners like our peers so our recruitment has to be laser beam focused and very high end. IRFU directives and money have severely hampered this.
2) Coaching Team quality. We in Leinster were freakishly lucky. There’s a strong case to be made that two of our most recent coaches were in the Top 5 coaches in the World. (Jones, Gatland, Hansen, Cheika, Schmidt….). You can see the value of a good coach, whether it be in the way Schmidt had us playing or the way Lam has Conn playing. Foley, Cullen, and Kiss – they may come to that standard but they are not to the level of those that preceded them by and large. It is rare for clubs to hire world class coaches and many hire from within past player ranks so I don’t object to the concept but, particularly in the nature of some back room appointees, there is a sense of making do. The focus on promotion of Irish talent is laudable but must be merit based. The promotion of Irish coaches is certainly driven by the desire to get Irish coaches coaching the National Team ultimately.
All of the above, the promotion of Irish coaching talent, the reduction of the number and quality of foreign signings and resultant squad depth issue, the tightness of funding – all are “self-inflicted” via the IRFU. We can probably all row behind the reasons at a global level – a wider pool of Irish qualified players for a National Team coached by an Irishman however there are no questions that the Provinces would do things differently with a free hand.
Longer term reasons;
1) Significant decline in player quality. This is cyclical to a great degree and, the perception of “player quality” is often based on the success or otherwise of the teams they play in but, hand on heart, how many of our current team “blocks” (ie back row, second row, halves etc) get into the team of 2009-12? I’d put the current front row and, maybe, backrow. And, even more marked, the current Munster team into the 2006-9 version? Or the current Ulster team into the 2011-13 team? The player pool is “worse” than we have had for a while. The debate around the comparative quality of the 6Ns and P12, given we have won the last 2 of the former and routinely dominate the latter are relevant here.
2) We cannot compete financially. For a multitude of reasons, FX rates, change in tax law, comparative revenue streams – we are now way behind the French and English leagues. This will probably be most harshly seen, not in our inability to sign Julian Savea or Matt Giteau but in our inability to land the next tier down or to be gazumped by much “lesser clubs”, even from the 2nd divisions and in the likely loss of players from our sides.

Elements of the above are related and some feed each other. The lack of money, combined with tighter controls on foreign players reduce the player pool, increase our exposure to injuries, make it harder for us to compete, leads to loss of ambitious players who want to win pots, which reduces player pool quality …….

Scope for improvement

Even assuming you agree with not a word of the above, where is there room for improvement or development? Ultimately, we are a small nation with limited resources. Rugby is not the primary sport here. We must absolutely maximize what we have and be super smart with it. I am trying to avoid pie in the sky stuff and assuming there is no change in the Ireland v Province primacy.

Academy co-operation/Cross province co-operation/ David Nucifora’s role. Some of the commentary on this is nuts. It comes from the usual sources and is usually linked to “Saint Joe” and how it’s all a media D4, IRFU, conspiracy to strengthen Leinster. All Leinster supporters want to beat Munster into the ground when we play them and vice versa. The same goes for the other provinces. This is the way it should be and the way it will always be. However, I think there is merit in acknowledging the massive potential value in co-operation. This extends to every single level of the organisations.

The ones in the news right now are cross border player moves. A thorny issue. In the context of squad depth/injuries that I discussed above, the “donor” fans don’t want players to go. In the context of squad quality and pride the donee fans don’t want players to come. There are different “types” of move.
1. A player who either is definitely or strongly intimating they will leave their current province – probably a no brainer to try at least keep them at home if warranted (see Madigan and Henshaw).
2. A youngster with potential but nothing more stuck in a backlog going somewhere with a marginally less crowded backlog for a bit of first team experience (generally newly graduated academy guys but the likes of Felix and even Conway could fit here to an extent) – maybe the donor is a bit sore but it makes sense in the cold light of day. In the second case I believe it would be good if the donor province got the option guaranteed to match any subsequent contract renewal terms by the donee province in the event that the player develops very well or the backlog at “home” clears up.
3. The veteran, possibly winding up and being overtaken by nippers who could be moved to get another year and do some mentoring/coaching for a team that has a callow section. I can’t think of any immediate examples here but, let’s say Reddan was currently playing for Munster, him coming here next year to give guidance/coaching to McGrath/Cooney/Any other youngster could make sense.
4. The hard part comes when somebody is not a first choice per se but also a person a province does legitimately need – say Moore here or the Donacha Ryan when he was behind POC/DOC – is moved with a view to being the stone cold first choice. Nationally it makes sense but certainly leaves the donor sore and these must be used in rare cases only in my view or else resentment increases.

Academy co-operation is the area where I really think we should judge Nucifora. I don’t necessarily mean deciding on an “Irish” way of playing and imposing it form the top down, more in terms of maximizing the value of, and exposure to, the Academies. So for instance, clearly Munster has an edge on us in producing Second Rows. If we have a raw material second row, is there an argument that he be sent to Munster for coaching there throughout his academy stay to maximize his exposure to the best? He would have to remain a “Leinster” player and obviously budget/place expansion required to ensure Munster don’t miss out. Similarly, we have a better record in the backs – same process applies. The arguments against – learning calls and other nonsense – are just that. For the greater good, the provinces should be able to live with the chance that an academy player might overhear a lineout call that might be used against the opposition he has a relationship with once a year. The Academies and development officers must share all the info they have on up and coming players (again – caveat on first dibs) centrally. It’s known that academies tailor intake to suit future needs so they may have a prospect that doesn’t get in due to prioritization of another position – he must not fall through the cracks. It may already exist but a central “scouting” database of players, provided from ground up by regional and schools development officers to academies and up to Nucifora so we ensure all possibilities are considered.

Money; whether they like it or not, the IRFU are going to need to either; provide greater revenue or facilitate the provinces raising more themselves. TV money must be maximized obviously but that is a) product dependent in the Pro 12 and, b) in every case going to benefit our “competitors” to the same extent as us (ie - if Heino money doubles, the French and English leagues’ shares do too). Real, game changing revenue must be produced by the Irish themselves. That may be benefactors like Leinster have used for the gym and player commercial revenue. Could that be taken to its logical conclusion of external investment? Stadium revenue; Ulster and Wasps are models for this and God knows how much Leinster miss out on - I believe there is limited scope for attendance expansion but are we maximizing the money we get from those that do attend? The cut we get of burgers and pints, naming rights, the ability to sell corporate stuff or mid-week conference stuff etc etc. Obviously not a short term fix.

The quality of foreign signings; We absolutely must ensure, as far as possible, that guys we are signing can walk into the team and 1) materially improve it and 2) not disappear during the season. Kirchener is literally the worst case – he takes up the wedge, he takes up a slot, he is barely even first bench option and he gets selected for SA in the Novembers/RWC when he could actually be of use. There is no magic trick to ensuring everybody is an Elsom versus a Van De Linde but we need to minimize the risk.

Only a start and I may not have avoided pie in the sky stuff and I’m sure there is somebody here who can poke holes throughout but just my thoughts.

[blaker]

Sorry that's very long

[simonokeeffe]

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very long out

[olaf the fat]

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As the actress said to the bishop