The Quickening. 2016

[johng]

That time of year again. We argue over who will finish well and who will not in the 2nd half of the season.

6 teams have played 11 games. 5 have played 12 and Glasgow have played 10. They always lose a few (edit: to the weather) at Scotstoun.

This year there are 8 teams in contention for the top spots. More competitive than any other year.

Quite a few games therefore between the top 8 in the rest of the season.

Round 13
29/30/31 Jan Ospreys  v  Glasgow WarriorsLiberty Stadium
Sat 30 Jan15:00 Connacht Rugby  v  ScarletsSportsgroundSky
Round 14
Fri 12 Feb19:30 Ulster Rugby  v  Glasgow WarriorsKingspan StadiumSky
February 2016 Fri 12 Feb20:15 Scarlets  v  Edinburgh RugbyParc y ScarletsBBCW/ALBA
Sun 14 Feb17:00 Munster Rugby  v  OspreysIrish Independent ParkTG4/S4C
Round 15
19/20/21 Feb Ospreys  v  Edinburgh RugbyLiberty Stadium
Sat 20 Feb17:15 Glasgow Warriors  v  Munster RugbyScotstoun StadiumSky
Sun 21 Feb14:30 Ulster Rugby  v  ScarletsKingspan StadiumBBCNI/S4CMore
Round 16
Thu 25 Feb19:05 Connacht Rugby  v  OspreysSportsgroundTG4
Sun 28 Feb14:05Edinburgh Rugby  v  ScarletsBT MurrayfieldBBC2SC
Round 17
March 2016 Fri 4 Mar19:35Edinburgh Rugby  v  Connacht RugbyBT MurrayfieldBBC ALBA/TG4
Sat 5 Mar15:00 Leinster Rugby  v  OspreysRDS ArenaSkyMore Sat 5 Mar19:35
Round 9
Fri 18 Mar19:35 Glasgow Warriors  v  Leinster RugbyScotstoun StadiumSky
Round 18
25/26/27 Mar Connacht Rugby  v  Leinster RugbySportsground
25/26/27 Mar Glasgow Warriors  v  Ulster RugbyScotstoun Stadium
25/26/27 Mar Ospreys  v  ScarletsLiberty Stadium
Round 19
Sat 2 Apr17:30 Leinster Rugby  v  Munster RugbyRDS ArenaTG4/Sky
1/2/3 Apr Ulster Rugby  v  Connacht RugbyKingspan Stadium
Round 20
15/16/17 AprLeinster Rugby  v  Edinburgh RugbyRDS Arena
15/16/17 Apr Scarlets  v  Glasgow WarriorsParc y Scarlets
15/16/17 Apr Connacht Rugby  v  Munster RugbySportsground
Round 21
29/30 Apr, 1 May Ulster Rugby  v  Leinster RugbyKingspan Stadium
29/30 Apr, 1 MayMunster Rugby  v  Edinburgh RugbyIrish Independent Park
Round 22
6/7/8 May Connacht Rugby  v  Glasgow WarriorsSportsground
6/7/8 May Munster Rugby  v  ScarletsThomond Park
6/7/8 May Ospreys  v  Ulster RugbyLiberty Stadium

Also worth looking at the home and away for each team

Home
Connacht: Gla, Lei, Mun, Osp, Sca.
Edinburgh: Car, Con, Sca, Zeb.
Glasgow: Car, Lei ,Mun, Uls, Zeb.
Leinster: Tre, Edi, Mun, Osp, Zeb.
Munster: Edi, Dra, Osp, Sca, Zeb.
Ospreys: Tre, Edi, Gla, Sca Uls.
Scarlets: Tre, Car, Edi, Gla,
Ulster: Con, Gla, Lei, Dra, Sca, Zeb.

Away
Connacht: Tre, Edi, Dra, Uls, Zeb.
Edinburgh: Car, Lei, Mun, Dra, Osp, Sca.
Glasgow: Tre, Con, Dra, Osp, Sca, Uls, Zeb.
Leinster: Car, Con, Gla, Dra, Uls, Zeb.
Munster: Car, Tre, Con, Gla, Lei, Zeb.
Ospreys: Car, Con, Lei, Mun, Dra.
Scarlets: Con, Edi, Mun, Dra, Osp, Uls.
Ulster: Tre, Car, Gla, Osp, Zeb.

So.

Connacht. If they can turn it round v Scarlets in the next round in Galway, I fancy them to go on a bit of a run during the 6n. They have some hard home games but they should be able to win one or two v the top 8. Ospreys during the 6n being a big target. Challenge cup distraction too. Playing for a home QF in Brive this week.
Top 6 but probably not top 4.

Edinburgh. They have become a very hard to beat team who couldn't find the tryline with a map and a compass. Will they stay top 6? Not convinced they will. Also distracted by Challenge cup potentially.
7th or 8th for me.

Glasgow. Last year's champs. Playing like drains but 2 games in hand. They will improve on the hard grounds post 6N but could implode during it. Travelling to fellow strugglers Ospreys next up, then Ulster in RHill. Likely no Euro distraction barring a result in Franklins Gardens this week. Could end up in the same boat as the previous champions.
5th or 6th I reckon.

Leinster. After a disastrous Euro campaign due to finishing 5th in the league, we seem to be building nicely. We have 3 Italian teams (2 at home) and crucially only 2 losses this season. We are the only team in the league unbeaten at home so lets keep it that way.
Hoping for top 2. Fingers crossed.

Munster. In freefall. But in fairness we could have said that about us a few months ago. Can they get it back together? They have some good results in the bag and 3 Italian teams to come also. If they can get a bit of momentum who knows? Wounded pride and no Euro distractions.
I can see them scraping into the top 4

Ospreys. Having a bit of a horror show also. Lost 6 games already, Things don't ease up for them until after the 6n. By which time it could be too late.
7th or 8th but they could go on a run at the end of the season and pip Connacht or Glasgow for top 6.

Scarlets.Top of the table now but 6 away games and 5 of them to top 8 teams. Injury crisis in the 2nd row. Big test in the Sportsground in the next round.
On the plus side they are hard to beat now and scrap for everything. They have both Italian sides at home also.
They should do just enough to stay top 4 imho

Ulster. Going well if a bit short in the back row. They have a decent run of fixtures coming. If they have no Euro distractions or get an away QF they could well get a home semi in the pro12

Your mileage may vary.

[paddyor]

I think Ulster will struggle through the 6n period. As you say they're a bit light at back row but I'd add second row to that. They've 8 games coming up in the next 8 weeks coming off the back off what's been a fairly hectic schedule anyway. I don't think they've the squad depth to secure a top 4 finish.

[johng]

I dunno Paddy. 4 x home games (Dragons, Glasgow, Scarlets, Zebre) and away to Cardiff. I think they can handle that. It's after the 6n that they will have trouble and particularly if they make the Euro knockouts.

Glasgow are muck at the moment and along with us they will lose the most to 6n. Scarlets have injury worries on top of their 6n call ups. Ulster will still have their star player right through the 6n.

[johng]

This is really about losses v remaining fixtures.

Take Ospreys. They have 6 in the bag with 10 to play. This means they would have to go on a serious streak to get top 4. Glasgow are below them and have 5 losses with 12 to play. Not massively better but they have wiggle room there and I can see them finishing ahead of the Os.

You can claw back easier with more fixtures but no matter what you do you can't claw back a loss.

Which looks good for us........

[blockhead]

The Welsh derby's in the first week in April. Will they be moved to the millenium stadium?

[johng]

They already have. Judgement day IV (Or V or whatever it is) is in the Principality Stadium. (New name for the MS)

[simonokeeffe]

If you go through probable wins and points already IMO youre looking at Leinster and Scarlets clear 1 and 2, Ulster, Munster, Connacht, Edinburgh in dogfight for 3 and 4 but Edinburgh's lack of try scoring to go against them

[neiliog93]

Top 4: Leinster, Scarlets, Ulster, Connacht.

[simonokeeffe]

Top 4: Leinster, Scarlets, Ulster, Connacht.

Connacht and not us?

[paddyor]

This is really about losses v remaining fixtures.

Take Ospreys. They have 6 in the bag with 10 to play. This means they would have to go on a serious streak to get top 4. Glasgow are below them and have 5 losses with 12 to play. Not massively better but they have wiggle room there and I can see them finishing ahead of the Os.

You can claw back easier with more fixtures but no matter what you do you can't claw back a loss.

Which looks good for us........

Yeah it's quite open. Mad that Glasgow have stayed in touch with 7 BPs. I was thinkin about Ulster and my thinking they won't make the top 4. Thing is though who will? Edinburgh are the 3rd best defense in the league with 2nd least amount of tries scored. They've a difficult run in mind
http://www.pro12rugby.com/teams/edinburgh/fixtures.php#UX4meSqsA2DH3lbc.97

So who will lose the least amount of games.......I still expected Munster to come good a bit until last weekend.

I think ourselves and Scarlets will definitely make top 4. After that, 2 from Ulster Munster and Glasgow. Connacht, Edinburgh and Ospreys to battle it out for 6th

[neill_m]

Judgement Day 4 is Sat 30th Apr Cardiff Ospreys and Dragons Scarlets.

[Ruckedtobits]

The month from 5th Mar to 2nd Apr defines our Season. All bodies required for that stretch!

[kermischocolate]

6 teams have played 11 games. 5 have played 12 and Glasgow have played 10. They always lose a few at Scotstoun.

Do we? Since when? Not that there's likely to be lots of games at Scotstoun any time soon.

Unless there's a dramatic improvement some time soon we will struggle to make top 6 never mind top 4.

Can't see us being in murrayfield in may.

[Oldschool]

The thread I most look forward to each year.
This time around I'm glad to say the Leinster trend is positive.
BUT not so Munster.
Munster are in the same situation we were in last season.
Other teams smell blood and fancy their chances home or away.
Munster have two huge areas of weakness.
Scrum and OH. Botha's injury and any absences by Cronin leave them vulnerable.

[johng]

Extremely badly worded on my part. I meant they always lose a few fixtures to the weather. Not to the opposition.

[kermischocolate]

Extremely badly worded on my part. I meant they always lose a few fixtures to the weather. Not to the opposition.

Aah fair enough.

I'll go for Scarlets, Leinster, Ulster and Glasgow to make top 4. No idea what order though.

And yes, there is a high chance I'm delusional!

[blockhead]

Teams with most players missing during 6 nations. As of now of course;
Leinster 17
Glasgow 16
Zebre 13
Treviso 9
Cardiff 9
Edinburgh 9
Ospreys 8
Scarlets 7
Ulster 7
Munster 7
Connacht 4
Dragons 3

Many club returns and call ups during the campaign I'm sure.

[simonokeeffe]

the other countries do tend to release more players back

be interesting to see how Munster cope in games without both Stander and TOD

[ChrisUppy]

the other countries do tend to release more players back

be interesting to see how Munster cope in games without both Stander and TOD

That's the thing with Munster, they don't lose quantity but they do lose quality. In losing Stander they're losing virtually their only consistent performer. Sherry, Foley, Kilkoyne should leave them with enough of a backbone but they'll be unbalanced in the backrow and have a fairly callow backline

[Peg Leg]

Well done zebre