Hope so !.neill_m wrote:How the bookies see it:
Leinster -1
Exeter -9
Sarries -25
ASM -11
Scarlets -6
Munster -28
R92 -5
Coventry -4
ASR -30
My predictions for the QF:
1 Leinster v 8 R92
2 ASM v 7 Exeter
3 Munster v 6 Ulster
4 La Rochelle v 5 Scarlets
European Rugby Champions Cup
Moderator: moderators
Re: European Rugby Champions Cup
Flying wedge
- Flash Gordon
- Leo Cullen
- Posts: 11718
- Joined: February 7th, 2006, 3:31 pm
Re: European Rugby Champions Cup
Would definitely take that, we can beat Racing and there's a good chance the Scarlets would be beaten.footrush wrote:Hope so !.neill_m wrote:How the bookies see it:
Leinster -1
Exeter -9
Sarries -25
ASM -11
Scarlets -6
Munster -28
R92 -5
Coventry -4
ASR -30
My predictions for the QF:
1 Leinster v 8 R92
2 ASM v 7 Exeter
3 Munster v 6 Ulster
4 La Rochelle v 5 Scarlets
Flash ahhhh ahhh, he'll save every one of us
Re: European Rugby Champions Cup
Aye I'd be delighted with a crack at Toulon or Metro.
- riocard911
- Shane Jennings
- Posts: 6033
- Joined: July 27th, 2015, 10:42 pm
Re: European Rugby Champions Cup
Not being a "punter" meself and not having been great at the ol' sums in school, could anyone explain why the turf accountants say -1 for Leinster and -28 for Munster when they mean they expect them to win by +1 and +28 respectively? It's something I can't get my head around.....neill_m wrote:How the bookies see it:
Leinster -1
Exeter -9
Sarries -25
ASM -11
Scarlets -6
Munster -28
R92 -5
Coventry -4
ASR -30
My predictions for the QF:
1 Leinster v 8 R92
2 ASM v 7 Exeter
3 Munster v 6 Ulster
4 La Rochelle v 5 Scarlets
Re: European Rugby Champions Cup
It means that for the matches in question Leinster are starting with a handicap of -1 and Munster with -28riocard911 wrote:Not being a "punter" meself and not having been great at the ol' sums in school, could anyone explain why the turf accountants say -1 for Leinster and -28 for Munster when they mean they expect them to win by +1 and +28 respectively? It's something I can't get my head around.....neill_m wrote:How the bookies see it:
Leinster -1
Exeter -9
Sarries -25
ASM -11
Scarlets -6
Munster -28
R92 -5
Coventry -4
ASR -30
My predictions for the QF:
1 Leinster v 8 R92
2 ASM v 7 Exeter
3 Munster v 6 Ulster
4 La Rochelle v 5 Scarlets
elfan
Re: European Rugby Champions Cup
Effectively yes. -1 for Leinster really means they cannot call it in my view.riocard911 wrote:Not being a "punter" meself and not having been great at the ol' sums in school, could anyone explain why the turf accountants say -1 for Leinster and -28 for Munster when they mean they expect them to win by +1 and +28 respectively? It's something I can't get my head around.....neill_m wrote:How the bookies see it:
Leinster -1
Exeter -9
Sarries -25
ASM -11
Scarlets -6
Munster -28
R92 -5
Coventry -4
ASR -30
My predictions for the QF:
1 Leinster v 8 R92
2 ASM v 7 Exeter
3 Munster v 6 Ulster
4 La Rochelle v 5 Scarlets
It may not be popular on here and I hope I am proved wrong but I just see MHR wanting to finish the group on a high with a home win for their fans, particularly after the dispiriting show in Exeter last week. I think they will edge this and my hope is for us to get a lbp to guarantee first seed status.
Interesting the bookies have Scarlets favourites in Llanelli. I'd be delighted to see them win. 4 Pro14 teams in the last 8 would be great.
Four Stars
Re: European Rugby Champions Cup
had my crystal ball out earlier in the week and came up with the same seeds 1 - 7 but had Toulon as 8th seed. Key to this weekend is securing seeds 1 or 2 and avoiding Exeter in the QF's.neill_m wrote:How the bookies see it:
Leinster -1
Exeter -9
Sarries -25
ASM -11
Scarlets -6
Munster -28
R92 -5
Coventry -4
ASR -30
My predictions for the QF:
1 Leinster v 8 R92
2 ASM v 7 Exeter
3 Munster v 6 Ulster
4 La Rochelle v 5 Scarlets
- riocard911
- Shane Jennings
- Posts: 6033
- Joined: July 27th, 2015, 10:42 pm
Re: European Rugby Champions Cup
Sorry. What does that mean? How can Leinster have a "handicap" of minus one point, when the bookies are expecting them to win by plus one? The word handicap I understand as something negative. Here it seems to be something positive. I would have thought Montpellier are the one with the handicap of minus one as they are the team expected to lose by a point; so they're a point behind before the match has started that they have to make up. They to me would be the ones with the handicap. There's a logic here I can't follow. Please explain further!!!elfan wrote:It means that for the matches in question Leinster are starting with a handicap of -1 and Munster with -28riocard911 wrote:Not being a "punter" meself and not having been great at the ol' sums in school, could anyone explain why the turf accountants say -1 for Leinster and -28 for Munster when they mean they expect them to win by +1 and +28 respectively? It's something I can't get my head around.....neill_m wrote:How the bookies see it:
Leinster -1
Exeter -9
Sarries -25
ASM -11
Scarlets -6
Munster -28
R92 -5
Coventry -4
ASR -30
My predictions for the QF:
1 Leinster v 8 R92
2 ASM v 7 Exeter
3 Munster v 6 Ulster
4 La Rochelle v 5 Scarlets
- limecat
- Lazy totalitarian
- Posts: 5637
- Joined: February 17th, 2005, 10:25 pm
- Location: a strangely isolated place
- Contact:
Re: European Rugby Champions Cup
I think it means that if Leinster started the match at -1 points and Montpelier at 0, the bookies expect the outcome to be a draw.riocard911 wrote:Sorry. What does that mean? How can Leinster have a "handicap" of minus one point, when the bookies are expecting them to win by plus one? The word handicap I understand as something negative. Here it seems to be something positive. I would have thought Montpellier are the one with the handicap of minus one as they are the team expected to lose by a point; so they're a point behind before the match has started that they have to make up. They to me would be the ones with the handicap. There's a logic here I can't follow. Please explain further!!!
Keep up to date on our facebook page or follow us on mastodon.
- kermischocolate
- Mullet
- Posts: 1259
- Joined: May 17th, 2009, 2:56 am
- Location: Glasgow
Re: European Rugby Champions Cup
In betting you get a handicap because you are deemed to be better than the opposition.
The handicap is how much of a headstart the opposition could have and you'd still win.
I think.
The handicap is how much of a headstart the opposition could have and you'd still win.
I think.
Re: European Rugby Champions Cup
Take Munster as an example. Munster are 1/50 to win the match. Most people will not have a bet at such odds. So the bookies offer handicap betting to make it more attractive. So if you bet on Munster with the handicap(-28) the bookies are giving odds of 10/11. This means that Munster have to win by more than 28 points for you to win your bet. Or you could say for sake of the bet that Munster are starting the game on -28 points. If Muster win by more that 28 points you win your bet. If they win by 28 or less you lose.
Not sure if this explains it but best I can do
Not sure if this explains it but best I can do
Last edited by elfan on January 19th, 2018, 11:22 am, edited 1 time in total.
elfan
- riocard911
- Shane Jennings
- Posts: 6033
- Joined: July 27th, 2015, 10:42 pm
Re: European Rugby Champions Cup
That I can understand. Grma, Limecat!!!limecat wrote:I think it means that if Leinster started the match at -1 points and Montpelier at 0, the bookies expect the outcome to be a draw.riocard911 wrote:Sorry. What does that mean? How can Leinster have a "handicap" of minus one point, when the bookies are expecting them to win by plus one? The word handicap I understand as something negative. Here it seems to be something positive. I would have thought Montpellier are the one with the handicap of minus one as they are the team expected to lose by a point; so they're a point behind before the match has started that they have to make up. They to me would be the ones with the handicap. There's a logic here I can't follow. Please explain further!!!
Re: European Rugby Champions Cup
Not quite. The bookies would expect Leinster to still win with a 1 point handicap.limecat wrote:I think it means that if Leinster started the match at -1 points and Montpelier at 0, the bookies expect the outcome to be a draw.riocard911 wrote:Sorry. What does that mean? How can Leinster have a "handicap" of minus one point, when the bookies are expecting them to win by plus one? The word handicap I understand as something negative. Here it seems to be something positive. I would have thought Montpellier are the one with the handicap of minus one as they are the team expected to lose by a point; so they're a point behind before the match has started that they have to make up. They to me would be the ones with the handicap. There's a logic here I can't follow. Please explain further!!!
So say for example, we win 18-16. If we had a handicap of -1, we would still win 17-16. If we had a handicap of -2, the score would be 16-16 and the bookies wouldn't pay out on a Leinster to win handicap bet.
Anyone But New Zealand
- riocard911
- Shane Jennings
- Posts: 6033
- Joined: July 27th, 2015, 10:42 pm
Re: European Rugby Champions Cup
Gotcha now, Elfan. Thank you very much.elfan wrote:Take Munster as an example. Munster are 1/50 to win the match. Most people will not have a bet at such odds. So the bookies offer handicap betting to make it more attractive. So if you bet on Munster with the handicap(-28) the bookies are giving odds of 10/11. This means that Munster have to win by more than 28 points for you to win your bet. Or you could say for sake of the bet that Munster are starting the game on -28 points. If Muster win by more that 28 points you win your bet. If they win by 28 or less you lose.
Not sure if this explains it but best I can do
Re: European Rugby Champions Cup
Indeed, also to factor in if 2 sides are evenly matched in the bookies' eyes, then the home side will be around -4 and the away side +4. So to take Munster as an example, they are considered 24 points favourites in their game + the element of home advantage.kermischocolate wrote:In betting you get a handicap because you are deemed to be better than the opposition.
The handicap is how much of a headstart the opposition could have and you'd still win.
I think.
- Laighin Break
- Mullet
- Posts: 1830
- Joined: May 3rd, 2012, 9:35 am
- Location: Scandinavia
Re: European Rugby Champions Cup
FLIP wrote:Not quite. The bookies would expect Leinster to still win with a 1 point handicap.limecat wrote:I think it means that if Leinster started the match at -1 points and Montpelier at 0, the bookies expect the outcome to be a draw.riocard911 wrote:Sorry. What does that mean? How can Leinster have a "handicap" of minus one point, when the bookies are expecting them to win by plus one? The word handicap I understand as something negative. Here it seems to be something positive. I would have thought Montpellier are the one with the handicap of minus one as they are the team expected to lose by a point; so they're a point behind before the match has started that they have to make up. They to me would be the ones with the handicap. There's a logic here I can't follow. Please explain further!!!
So say for example, we win 18-16. If we had a handicap of -1, we would still win 17-16. If we had a handicap of -2, the score would be 16-16 and the bookies wouldn't pay out on a Leinster to win handicap bet.
I think it does reflect that the bookies would expect the outcome to be a draw if we started -1 to 0, or 0 to +1 (Montpellier's handicap), but that they'll pay out if it would be a win. (So they're hoping the don't have to pay out)
- simonokeeffe
- Jamie Heaslip
- Posts: 16777
- Joined: July 21st, 2011, 3:04 am
- Location: Dublin
- Contact:
Re: European Rugby Champions Cup
even if only one English side goes through thatd be great, but zero, now that would be sweet
Retired from babbling. Can be found on twittter @okeeffesimon
Re: European Rugby Champions Cup
The other game in our grouo, line-ups.
I think Glasgow will not want to go 6 for 6. Exeter are in for tough game.Glasgow: S Hogg, T Seymour, H Jones, A Dunbar, Leonardo Sarto, F Russell, G Horne; J Bhatti, G Turner, S Halanukonuka, R Harley, J Gray (capt), M Fagerson, M Smith, A Ashe.
Replacements: G Stewart, A Allan, D Rae, G Peterson, C Fusaro, A Price, P Horne, L Jones.
Exeter: P Dollman; L Turner, H Slade, I Whitten, O Woodburn; G Steenson (capt), N White; B Moon, L Cowan-Dickie, H Williams, M Lees, J Hill, D Ewers, D Armand, S Simmonds.
Replacements: E Taione, M Low, T Francis, T Salmon, M Kvesic, W Chudley, J Simmonds, T Gilbert-Hendrickson.
You know I'm going to lose,
And gambling's for fools,
But that's the way I like it baby, I don't want to live FOREVER!
And gambling's for fools,
But that's the way I like it baby, I don't want to live FOREVER!
Re: European Rugby Champions Cup
Have a real soft spot for Exeter been to both of our games there and find there supporters knowledgeable and warm hearted they have a great integrity about their club and the way they compete.simonokeeffe wrote:even if only one English side goes through thatd be great, but zero, now that would be sweet
Flying wedge
- TerenureJim
- Shane Jennings
- Posts: 5316
- Joined: May 5th, 2009, 10:09 am
Re: European Rugby Champions Cup
It's hard not to like the way they do their business, no big names just a carefully selected and developed squad/teamfootrush wrote:Have a real soft spot for Exeter been to both of our games there and find there supporters knowledgeable and warm hearted they have a great integrity about their club and the way they compete.simonokeeffe wrote:even if only one English side goes through thatd be great, but zero, now that would be sweet