The Quickening 2017

[johng]

Well Boys and Girls. Here we are again for another installing enthrallment of the Pro12 countdown.

This is the 7th year of this posting tradition. It having started in the countdown to the first set of playoffs in 2010

This season we will be concerned with the top 6 again because... While Cardiff and Connacht could possibly break into the top 6 they are unlikely to make the top 4.

Personally I think Leinster, Munster and Ospreys will be there (probably not in that order). Glasgow could either go on a run beating everyone to give Toonie a sendoff, or.... They could disappear in a puff of smoke with all their away top 6 fixtures. Scarlets or possibly even Ulster could replace them in the playoffs.

Top 6 Fix

Round 14 Friday 10 Feb 19:35 Glasgow Warriors v Scarlets Scotstoun Stadium
Round 15 Round 15 17/18/19 Feb Ospreys v Munster Rugby Liberty Stadium
Round 15 Saturday 18 Feb 15:00 Ulster Rugby v Glasgow Warriors Kingspan Stadium
Round 16 Friday 24 Feb 19:35 Munster Rugby v Scarlets Thomond Park
Round 16 Sunday 26 Feb 17:05 Ospreys v Glasgow Warriors Liberty Stadium
Round 17 Saturday 4 Mar 19:35 Leinster Rugby v Scarlets RDS Arena
W/E 30 March Euro Quarters
Round 19 07/08/09 Apr Munster Rugby v Glasgow Warriors Irish Independent Park
Round 19 07/08/09 Apr Ospreys v Leinster Rugby Liberty Stadium
Round 20 Saturday 15 Apr 15:00 Munster Rugby v Ulster Rugby Thomond Park
W/e 22 April Euro Semis
Round 21 28/29/30 Apr Ospreys v Ulster Rugby Liberty Stadium
Round 21 28/29/30 Apr Leinster Rugby v Glasgow Warriors RDS Arena
Round 22 Round 22 Saturday 6 May 17:15 Scarlets v Ospreys Parc y Scarlets
Round 22 Saturday 6 May 17:15 Ulster Rugby v Leinster Rugby Kingspan Stadium

Home and away for each team

Home
Glasgow: Sca, Con, Zeb, Edi.
Leinster: Edi, Sca, Car Gla.
Munster: Dra, Sca, Gla, Uls, Con.
Ospreys: Mun, Gla, Lei, Uls.
Scarlets: Zeb, Edi, Tre, Osp,
Ulster: Edi, Gla, Tre, Car, Lei, Zeb*.

* Fixture not yet set.

Away
Glasgow: Uls, Osp, Mun, Lei.
Leinster: Tre, Dra, Osp, Con, Uls.
Munster: Edi, Osp, Car, Zeb, Tre.
Ospreys: Zeb, Edi, Tre, Car, Sca.
Scarlets: Gla, Mun, Lei, Dra, Con.
Ulster: Zeb, Drag, Mun, Osp.

The final thing to look at is...

The Euro distractions.

Leinster and Munster look good for a CC QF with Glasgow, Connacht and Ulster having some chance probably in that order. Scarlets have a mathematical (but no realistic) chance.

In the other "CC" The Ospreys are nailed on for a QF with Cardiff also likely to get one. Edinburgh have a very good chance with the Dragons being outsiders.

Fairly impressive that only the Italians are definitely out after 4 rounds.

So at least 3 of the top 6 likely to have distractions and a couple of the lesser lights too.

So.....

Glasgow. Hard to know if they can stay in the top 4 would never bet against them as they came from a long way back to get third last season and were only a point off top. They have away fixtures v the other 3 top teams though and Ulster who have already beaten them.

Leinster. With distractions in Europe, a ridiculous last 4 games and the good form/fixtures of Munster and Ospreys, it will be a real slog getting a home semi. If we do not go into the last 4 games in top spot I would be surprised if we can do it.

Munster. What a difference a season makes! Really motoring in both Europe and League. Can they be stopped in their quest for a home semi? Ospreys their only top 6 away fixture. A lot can change in the next few months but they are in pole position now.

Ospreys. Missed Europe last year. Fairly guaranteed for that not to happen this year. Only top 6 away fixture left is Scarlets. All their home fixtures are v top 6 but... They have Glasgow at home during 6N. Munster too, and the chance to take points from ourselves and Ulster near the end of the season. Hard to see them not getting a home semi at this point.

Scarlets. Could get past Glasgow into the playoffs but have some horrendous away fixtures to contend with all during the 6N.

Ulster. Have fallen off a cliff form wise but unlikely to have Euro distractions and they have 6 home fixtures left including both Italians. Safe in top 6 and dark horses for top 4.

[offshorerules]

Either way I think buying tickets for the final should be a worthwhile investment.

[johng]

Either way I think buying tickets for the final should be a worthwhile investment.

Bought 2 excellent ones the day they came out. Hopefully won't be watching Ospreys v Scarlets.

[Degz]

Munster
Ospreys
Leinster
Ulster
Glasgow
Scarlets

[kermischocolate]

I think we (glasgow) will struggle during 6n.

Last couple of seasons we haven't really had a first and second xv. Most positions have been very interchangeable. This year, there is a distinct drop off. But anything is possible.

[riocard911]

Either way I think buying tickets for the final should be a worthwhile investment.

For sure. Grabbed the special offer before Xmas and am taking the whole clan incl. siblings, nephews and nieces. Hopefully we'll all be wearing BLUE!!!!

[Dexter]

The likelihood of a first ever away win in the SF?
There's probably a better chance this season than any previously IMO.

[johng]

Be nice to knock over the Ospreylians in the Library. Payback for 2010 & 2012.

[Flash Gordon]

Leinster are disproportionately handicapped by the draw on players in the 6 Nations and it looks like we will still be involved in Europe. Under normal circumstances I would expect us to win 5 of our last 9 and probably another 2 of the other 4. It'll be tight this year so we've got to be looking for bonus points.

We also have some positional vulnerabilities at lock and maybe hooker, On the plus side we'll have outhalves all over the place in the second half of the season. Very competitive season, definitely good for the league!

[simonokeeffe]

Without looking at timing of fixtures Ospreys lose a lot to call ups too. In general I dont see an area in their team where they are superior to us bar second row, equal halfbacks and maybe back 3 but our front row, back row, centres, bench all better than theirs

[johng]

Top 6 Fix

Round 15 Round 15 17/18/19 Feb Ospreys v Munster Rugby Liberty Stadium
Round 15 Saturday 18 Feb 15:00 Ulster Rugby v Glasgow Warriors Kingspan Stadium
Round 16 Friday 24 Feb 19:35 Munster Rugby v Scarlets Thomond Park
Round 16 Sunday 26 Feb 17:05 Ospreys v Glasgow Warriors Liberty Stadium
Round 17 Saturday 4 Mar 19:35 Leinster Rugby v Scarlets RDS Arena
W/E 30 March Euro Quarters
Round 19 07/08/09 Apr Munster Rugby v Glasgow Warriors Irish Independent Park
Round 19 07/08/09 Apr Ospreys v Leinster Rugby Liberty Stadium
Round 20 Saturday 15 Apr 15:00 Munster Rugby v Ulster Rugby Thomond Park
W/e 22 April Euro Semis
Round 21 28/29/30 Apr Ospreys v Ulster Rugby Liberty Stadium
Round 21 28/29/30 Apr Leinster Rugby v Glasgow Warriors RDS Arena
Round 22 Round 22 Saturday 6 May 17:15 Scarlets v Ospreys Parc y Scarlets
Round 22 Saturday 6 May 17:15 Ulster Rugby v Leinster Rugby Kingspan Stadium

Home and away for each team

Home
Glasgow: Dra, Con, Zeb, Edi.
Leinster: Edi, Sca, Car Gla.
Munster: Sca, Gla, Uls, Con.
Ospreys: Mun, Gla, Lei, Uls.
Scarlets: Zeb, Edi, Tre, Osp,
Ulster: Gla, Tre, Car, Lei, Zeb*.

* Fixture not yet set.

Away
Glasgow: Uls, Osp, Mun, Lei.
Leinster: Dra, Osp, Con, Uls.
Munster: Osp, Car, Zeb, Tre.
Ospreys: Edi, Tre, Car, Sca.
Scarlets: Mun, Lei, Dra, Con.
Ulster: Zeb, Drag, Mun, Osp.

Not a lot of moving or shaking this week. Scarlets beating Glasgow away the only top 6 game. Puts the Scarlets in 4th place.

Table separating into groups of 3.

Top 3. (The race for home semi) 4,5,6 (The race for 4th) 7,8,9 (Race for Euro playoff) And the dregs.

Hard to see too much movement between groups.

All top 6 teams have 4 x home and away games. (Bar Ulster's postponed fixture)

Ospreys v Munster a big game for Leinster next week. Hopefully we can hurdle Embra out of it on Friday.

Connacht beating Cardiff away was a good result. Hope they can get to Europe 1 next season.

Fixtures for Euro playoffs....
19-21 May 2017

Play-off 1: Premiership v PRO12
Play-off 2: TOP 14 v PRO12

The PRO12 clubs' opponents to be decided by a draw

The Premiership and TOP 14 clubs will have home advantage

26-28 May 2017

Play-off Final: winner Play-off 1 v winner Play-off 2

Home advantage to be decided by a draw


The winner of the Play-off Final will take the 20th place in the 2017/18 Champions Cup

[Oldschool]

Excellent post.
Normal service gradually resuming as the MOC factor has pretty faded into the dim and distance past.
Connacht should fancy their chances in a playoff scenario, injuries permitting.

[paddyor]

Think Connacht have too much to do tbh. Need a massive winning streak to make 6th with other teams chasing 4th slipping up a lot. Just not happening for them this year.

[Oldschool]

Think Connacht have too much to do tbh. Need a massive winning streak to make 6th with other teams chasing 4th slipping up a lot. Just not happening for them this year.

Am I mistaken in thinking that 7th gets them to the playoffs.
Agree re 6th spot - virtually impossible task.

[johng]

Think Connacht have too much to do tbh. Need a massive winning streak to make 6th with other teams chasing 4th slipping up a lot. Just not happening for them this year.

Am I mistaken in thinking that 7th gets them to the playoffs.
Agree re 6th spot - virtually impossible task.

7th and 8th unless a lower placed Pro 12 team wins the Challenge cup

[Ruckedtobits]

And Ospreys have just signed Brian Mujati, specifically for the Munster game.

[paddyor]

And Ospreys have just signed Brian Mujati, specifically for the Munster game.

In a bold move.......lets see how it works out for them Cotton!

[Made Of Ale]

Think Connacht have too much to do tbh. Need a massive winning streak to make 6th with other teams chasing 4th slipping up a lot. Just not happening for them this year.

It's also not quite correct to say they're aiming for sixth. They would need to finish ahead of Scarlets or Ulster to get an automatic place for the ECC. Glasgow are going to qualify as the top Scottish team, even if Connacht overhaul them.

So yes, it looks impossible barring an implosion from one of the above, which looks even less likely when you read the fixture list. On the other hand, they look nailed on for 7th/ 8th and are favourites for 7th. And then cross fingers for playoff in England rather than France.

Thanks for this thread, johng, I enjoy reading it every year.

[Cianostays]

After last night's game, you'd have to imagine that Munster will finish top of the pile. All things being equal, if we can win the game in the Liberty that could be the one that secures us a home SF.

[simonokeeffe]

After last night's game, you'd have to imagine that Munster will finish top of the pile. All things being equal, if we can win the game in the Liberty that could be the one that secures us a home SF.

Munster's in game horror movie villain ability to never actaully die is getting kind of scary