The Quickening 2017

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Re: The Quickening 2017

Postby Ruckedtobits » March 25th, 2017, 10:51 pm

Cianostays wrote:Very, very nice gift for us from Treviso (or the Ospreys) :D

So if we win in Swansea, we'd only need a win and a couple of bonus points from the Glasgow, Connacht and Ulster games. It really does make us favourites now for a home SF.


Certainly not a result that was in many predictions but 'Spreys will be right up for game against us as their sole lifeline.
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Re: The Quickening 2017

Postby Oldschool » March 25th, 2017, 11:54 pm

Ruckedtobits wrote:
Cianostays wrote:Very, very nice gift for us from Treviso (or the Ospreys) :D

So if we win in Swansea, we'd only need a win and a couple of bonus points from the Glasgow, Connacht and Ulster games. It really does make us favourites now for a home SF.


Certainly not a result that was in many predictions but 'Spreys will be right up for game against us as their sole lifeline.

That's such a poor result for Ospreys that it could cost them a playoff place.
If we beat them away then 3/4 will between 3 teams.
Scarlets will get huge encouragement.
Ospreys away to Scarlets on the last day could be a winner take all affair.
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Re: The Quickening 2017

Postby johng » March 26th, 2017, 12:28 am

Top 6 Fix

Round 19 Saturday 8 Apr 15:00 Ospreys v Leinster Rugby Liberty Stadium
Round 19 Saturday 8 Apr 19:35 Munster Rugby v Glasgow Warriors Irish Independent Park
Round 20 Saturday 15 Apr 15:00 Munster Rugby v Ulster Rugby Thomond Park
W/e 22 April Euro Semis
Round 21 28/29/30 Apr Ospreys v Ulster Rugby Liberty Stadium
Round 21 28/29/30 Apr Leinster Rugby v Glasgow Warriors RDS Arena
Round 22 Round 22 Saturday 6 May 17:15 Scarlets v Ospreys Parc y Scarlets
Round 22 Saturday 6 May 17:15 Ulster Rugby v Leinster Rugby Kingspan Stadium

Home and away for each team

Home
Glasgow: Zeb, Edi.
Leinster: Gla.
Munster: Gla, Uls, Con.
Ospreys: Lei, Uls.
Scarlets: Tre, Osp,
Ulster: Car, Lei.

Away
Glasgow: Mun, Lei.
Leinster: Osp, Con, Uls.
Munster: Tre.
Ospreys: Car, Sca.
Scarlets: Dra, Con.
Ulster: Mun, Osp.

Leinster dropped a point this week. But the Os dropped 5 so it's all good.

me wrote:From a league pov the Os Game in the Library is looking more and more crucial.


Still crucial. A win takes the pressure off.
Last edited by johng on March 26th, 2017, 9:43 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: The Quickening 2017

Postby paddyor » March 26th, 2017, 12:47 am

Pressure is very much on them though, which could work either way. If they lose they're in trouble re the play-offs. They've opened the door to the teams in 4/5th 2 of whom they face in the last 4 games(as well as us). Maybe this isn't such a good result for us.
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Re: The Quickening 2017

Postby Oldschool » March 26th, 2017, 10:28 am

paddyor wrote:Pressure is very much on them though, which could work either way. If they lose they're in trouble re the play-offs. They've opened the door to the teams in 4/5th 2 of whom they face in the last 4 games(as well as us). Maybe this isn't such a good result for us.

A bird in the hand (Ospreys loss to Treviso) is worth two in the bush.
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Re: The Quickening 2017

Postby neiliog93 » March 26th, 2017, 4:32 pm

With the Ospreys result against Treviso, it seems very possible that our game against them over there in a couple of weeks will essentially be a shootout for 2nd and 3rd, and will decide who's at home when we meet again in the play-off semi-finals.
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Re: The Quickening 2017

Postby johng » March 26th, 2017, 8:01 pm

It's been a shootout for second and third for at least a month now.

What has changed with the treviso loss is....

If Ospreys lose it they could have to travel to the turks for a shootout for 3rd and 4th in the last game.
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Re: The Quickening 2017

Postby paddyor » March 26th, 2017, 9:04 pm

johng wrote:It's been a shootout for second and third for at least a month now.

What has changed with the treviso loss is....

If Ospreys lose it they could have to travel to the turks for a shootout for 3rd and 4th in the last game.

I think it takes the presswure off us a bit and puts it all on them. Leinster and Ulster wins next week could see the Os drop to 4th and with Scarlets home to Treviso they'd come into the play-off reckoning as well.
Ruddock's tackle stats consistently too low for me to be taken seriously as a Six Nations blindside..... Ruddock's defensive stats don't stack up. - All Blacks Nil, Jan 15th, 2014
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Ruddock(c) 19/2 Tackles
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Re: The Quickening 2017

Postby johng » March 26th, 2017, 9:10 pm

Can't see Ulster getting top 4.
As I said. Ospreys fail to beat us and they are scrapping with Scarlets for 3rd in the last game.
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Re: The Quickening 2017

Postby Oldschool » March 26th, 2017, 9:30 pm

johng wrote:Can't see Ulster getting top 4.
As I said. Ospreys fail to beat us and they are scrapping with Scarlets for 3rd in the last game.

Momentum, it's all about momentum and Ospreys have had all theirs taken from them by that Treviso result.
Any side they play against now will fancy their chances.
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Re: The Quickening 2017

Postby paddyor » March 26th, 2017, 9:47 pm

johng wrote:Can't see Ulster getting top 4.
As I said. Ospreys fail to beat us and they are scrapping with Scarlets for 3rd in the last game.

Win 2(Cardiff & Ospreys) out of the next 3 and they're setup for a cracker of a last game vs us. Scarlets do seem to have the handiest run in so you'd have to fancy them alright.
Ruddock's tackle stats consistently too low for me to be taken seriously as a Six Nations blindside..... Ruddock's defensive stats don't stack up. - All Blacks Nil, Jan 15th, 2014
England A 8 - 14 Ireland A, 25th Jan 2014
Ruddock(c) 19/2 Tackles
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Re: The Quickening 2017

Postby neill_m » March 26th, 2017, 10:08 pm

Reckon Scarlets get to 72. Ulster may need to win in Swansea/Limerick to lock up Top 4.


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Re: The Quickening 2017

Postby blockhead » March 27th, 2017, 12:53 am

If we get 2 wins from our last 4 games and nothing else.
Ospreys would have to get 15points from their last 4 games to get ahead of us.
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the number of tries scored;
the most points scored;
the difference between tries for and tries against;
the fewest number of suspensions;
the fewest number of yellow cards received;
toss of a coin.

That 0 point in treviso could really hurt them.
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Re: The Quickening 2017

Postby simonokeeffe » March 27th, 2017, 10:50 am

johng wrote:Can't see Ulster getting top 4.
As I said. Ospreys fail to beat us and they are scrapping with Scarlets for 3rd in the last game.


Scarlets have two very losable games though home to Ospreys and away to Connacht so two home wins for Ulster could get them in
When he spreads his legs like that youd need dynamite or the Highland Light Infantry to shift him.
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Re: The Quickening 2017

Postby johng » March 27th, 2017, 11:34 am

simonokeeffe wrote:
johng wrote:Can't see Ulster getting top 4.
As I said. Ospreys fail to beat us and they are scrapping with Scarlets for 3rd in the last game.


Scarlets have two very losable games though home to Ospreys and away to Connacht so two home wins for Ulster could get them in

If Scarlets lose to Connacht then it will set up a big final day with teams in 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th all playing each other.

Ulster could win those 2 games and still come 5th.
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Re: The Quickening 2017

Postby simonokeeffe » March 27th, 2017, 9:51 pm

johng wrote:
simonokeeffe wrote:
johng wrote:Can't see Ulster getting top 4.
As I said. Ospreys fail to beat us and they are scrapping with Scarlets for 3rd in the last game.


Scarlets have two very losable games though home to Ospreys and away to Connacht so two home wins for Ulster could get them in

If Scarlets lose to Connacht then it will set up a big final day with teams in 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th all playing each other.

Ulster could win those 2 games and still come 5th.


and if we're home and hosed the welsh will scream conspiracy over our weakend team :lol:
When he spreads his legs like that youd need dynamite or the Highland Light Infantry to shift him.
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Re: The Quickening 2017

Postby simonokeeffe » April 8th, 2017, 5:45 pm

so 6 points from last 3 games guarantees us home semi, that number goes down with every BP Ospreys fail to pick up

At other end, not insignificant but if Zebre win their last home game v Treviso theres a serious chance they finish above Dragons who they tonked today
When he spreads his legs like that youd need dynamite or the Highland Light Infantry to shift him.
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Re: The Quickening 2017

Postby blockhead » April 8th, 2017, 10:18 pm

simonokeeffe wrote:so 6 points from last 3 games guarantees us home semi, that number goes down with every BP Ospreys fail to pick up

At other end, not insignificant but if Zebre win their last home game v Treviso theres a serious chance they finish above Dragons who they tonked today


If the 6 points includes a win then you are correct. Otherwise its 7ps for a home semi.
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Re: The Quickening 2017

Postby johng » April 9th, 2017, 12:40 am

Getting 6 points from 3 games without the win is tough. The absolute shittest way of doing it is scoring 4 tries and losing by exactly 7 points in every game. That would leave us only 30 points and e wins clear of the Ospreys.

They would just need 3 bp wins and to improve their points difference by 30 odd.
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Re: The Quickening 2017

Postby johng » April 10th, 2017, 12:12 am

Top 6 Fix

Round 20 Saturday 15 Apr 15:00 Munster Rugby v Ulster Rugby Thomond Park
W/e 22 April Euro Semis
Round 21 28/29/30 Apr Ospreys v Ulster Rugby Liberty Stadium
Round 21 28/29/30 Apr Leinster Rugby v Glasgow Warriors RDS Arena
Round 22 Round 22 Saturday 6 May 17:15 Scarlets v Ospreys Parc y Scarlets
Round 22 Saturday 6 May 17:15 Ulster Rugby v Leinster Rugby Kingspan Stadium

Home and away for each team

Home
Glasgow: Zeb, Edi.
Leinster: Gla.
Munster: Uls, Con.
Ospreys: Uls.
Scarlets: Osp,
Ulster: Lei.

Away
Glasgow: Lei.
Leinster: Con, Uls.
Munster: Tre.
Ospreys: Car, Sca.
Scarlets: Dra, Con.
Ulster: Mun, Osp.

Leinster dropped got the job done this week. Allows them to target one game and rest as many players as needed for knockouts in both comps.

Leinster and Munster a shoo in for home semis now.

Ulster looking dodgy. They could catch us and/or Munster napping. Not sure where they are going to find the form though.
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