Leinster v Wasps Aviva Stadium 1st April KO 3.15 BT

[Flash Gordon]

Team as posted by El Diablo and almost by the Times

More accurate than the Times

Disappointed that Josh doesn't start but pretty much as expected. Some defensive frailties in Byrne and Carbery though I'd rather have them defending than Christian Wade!

Should be an absolute cracker!

[wixfjord]

Weve much more impact off the bench in the forwards

We definitely do. That's a big standout. Whatever about Molony starting, he's springy enough to cause them trouble (particularly with Johnson throwing later on) and VDF/Healy/Tracy are three fair impact subs to bring in.

I've said enough about my thoughts on the backline selection, but having Ferg & Kirch to come in does lessen that a bit.

Incredibly excited now! Allez les bleus!

[curates_egg]

That bench selection is a bit odd and does not ameliorate the risk being taken by playing Carbery at 15.
McFadden is a ledge bag and I personally think Kirchner has been very reliable for us... but McFadden's form fell off a cliff before his injury and last season and there has not been enough time to judge if he has gotten it back; Kirchner hasn't played in a while.
They are also two subs that could not be described as impact.
If Carbery and Byrne are getting torn to shreds defensively, the problem will need to be shored up...but we will probably also then be in need of tries. It's hard to see how McFirchner can do both those jobs.

I will correspond to stereotype and admit I am worried.

[LeRouxIsPHat]

Very surprised Molony is on the bench after his mistakes last week. He owes the coaches big time.

I'm guessing ROL and Ruddock are injured though so hard to judge their omissions if that's the case.

Noel also unlucky to miss out with the form he's been in.

When El Diablo named the team I actually just assumed SOB would be at 6 and Leavy at 7.I know they won't stick rigidly to their jerseys but it'll be interesting to see how that pans out anyway.

Not that we didn't know about it already but the pace and attacking talent in that Wasps backline is frightening. Hopefully we can deny them ball and put pressure on the halfbacks and Jimmy or else we're in trouble. Marty will be seriously fired up off the bench, hope he doesn't have too much of an impact on us.

[wixfjord]

That bench selection is a bit odd and does not ameliorate the risk being taken by playing Carbery at 15.

Of course it does, in fact there isn't another selection we could've made that would mitigate the risk any better!
You've Kirchner who can step straight in or MCF who can come in at wing leaving Isa to drop back.

Both outside back selections allow us to change things very quickly if things go wrong.

[matt]

Incredible to think that less than 15 months after we last played Wasps only 3 of our starters tomorrow also started that game (Toner, J.Mc Grath & Sexton who only lasted 9 mins). Let's hope ref does not allow late hits on JS.

Its a defining game for so many of our young players and I think we will see some great performances esp from likes of Henshaw, Ringrose, Furlong, Conan & Leavy.

[wixfjord]

Incredible to think that less than 15 months after we last played Wasps only 3 of our starters tomorrow also started that game (Toner, J.Mc Grath & Sexton who only lasted 9 mins). Let's hope ref does not allow late hits on JS.

Its a defining game for so many of our young players and I think we will see some great performances esp from likes of Henshaw, Ringrose, Furlong, Conan & Leavy.

It does have that 'start of an era' feel about it. A win here would give huge confidence and momentum to a serious crop of guys coming up.

I'm fascinated to see how Leavy & Conan match up with two big bruising test level players. Leavy in particular looks a wee bit undersized against top BRs to me, a good test for him.

[curates_egg]

That bench selection is a bit odd and does not ameliorate the risk being taken by playing Carbery at 15.

Of course it does, in fact there isn't another selection we could've made that would mitigate the risk any better!
You've Kirchner who can step straight in or MCF who can come in at wing leaving Isa to drop back.

Both outside back selections allow us to change things very quickly if things go wrong.

Sorry but
(a) we shouldn't be going into the biggest game of the season with such a big question mark over selection that we need to select two polar opposites from our squad on the bench in case the two selected players are a risk too big;
(b) if "things do go wrong", we will have leaked a couple of tries and need to get scores to compensate; and even if both McFadden and Kirchner are fit and firing, nobody would argue they will increase that team's ability to score tries.
It is doubling down.

Either the coaches really believe Byrne and Carbery can hold their own in defence - and they should go with the selection and select a normal and balanced bench; or they don't, in which case it is too big a risk.
Personally, based on what I have seen this season, I would have gone with Isa at 15 and Byrne, with McFadden/O'Loughlin on the wing vs Wade. Next in line would have been Carbery at fullback, with McFadden/O'Loughlin replacing Byrne.
If we are going with the hail Mary selection, I would have put O'Loughlin on the bench over Kirchner - Kirchner hasn't played a lot lately and O'Loughlin has shown he is solid but also has a bit of pace and can score tries.
I do not get McFadden and Kirchner both on the bench.

[matt]

That bench selection is a bit odd and does not ameliorate the risk being taken by playing Carbery at 15.

Of course it does, in fact there isn't another selection we could've made that would mitigate the risk any better!
You've Kirchner who can step straight in or MCF who can come in at wing leaving Isa to drop back.

Both outside back selections allow us to change things very quickly if things go wrong.

Sorry but
(a) we shouldn't be going into the biggest game of the season with such a big question mark over selection that we need to select two polar opposites from our squad on the bench in case the two selected players are a risk too big;
(b) if "things do go wrong", we will have leaked a couple of tries and need to get scores to compensate; and even if both McFadden and Kirchner are fit and firing, nobody would argue they will increase that team's ability to score tries.
It is doubling down.

Either the coaches really believe Byrne and Carbery can hold their own in defence - and they should go with the selection and select a normal and balanced bench; or they don't, in which case it is too big a risk.
Personally, based on what I have seen this season, I would have gone with Isa at 15 and Byrne, with McFadden/O'Loughlin on the wing vs Wade. Next in line would have been Carbery at fullback, with McFadden/O'Loughlin replacing Byrne.
If we are going with the hail Mary selection, I would have put O'Loughlin on the bench over Kirchner - Kirchner hasn't played a lot lately and O'Loughlin has shown he is solid but also has a bit of pace and can score tries.
I do not get McFadden and Kirchner both on the bench.

Got to say I am happy with the selection. You have to trust the coaches on Strauss v Tracy, Molony v Ruddock, Leavy v VDF, A.Byrne v Ferg/ROL, Carbery v Kirchner, but the reality is all will likely play and we have the squad also with Healy, Bent, G-P to close out the game.

[wixfjord]

Sorry but
(a) we shouldn't be going into the biggest game of the season with such a big question mark over selection that we need to select two polar opposites from our squad on the bench in case the two selected players are a risk too big;

I completely agree. I've been saying that all week. But the point you made above was that the bench choice 'doesn't mitigate the risk'.

In fact, that's exactly what it does, rightly or wrongly.
Having two experience outside backs to come on for Carbery and Byrne by definition decreases the risk to starting them.

Whether you or I agree or not with it is another argument.

[blockhead]

No World Player of the Year Nominee, Kearney x 2, Nugget or Jordi but thats still some bench. C'mon Leinster!!!

[Edna Kenny]

That bench selection is a bit odd and does not ameliorate the risk being taken by playing Carbery at 15.

Of course it does, in fact there isn't another selection we could've made that would mitigate the risk any better!
You've Kirchner who can step straight in or MCF who can come in at wing leaving Isa to drop back.

Both outside back selections allow us to change things very quickly if things go wrong.

Sorry but
(a) we shouldn't be going into the biggest game of the season with such a big question mark over selection that we need to select two polar opposites from our squad on the bench in case the two selected players are a risk too big;
(b) if "things do go wrong", we will have leaked a couple of tries and need to get scores to compensate; and even if both McFadden and Kirchner are fit and firing, nobody would argue they will increase that team's ability to score tries.
It is doubling down.

Either the coaches really believe Byrne and Carbery can hold their own in defence - and they should go with the selection and select a normal and balanced bench; or they don't, in which case it is too big a risk.
Personally, based on what I have seen this season, I would have gone with Isa at 15 and Byrne, with McFadden/O'Loughlin on the wing vs Wade. Next in line would have been Carbery at fullback, with McFadden/O'Loughlin replacing Byrne.
If we are going with the hail Mary selection, I would have put O'Loughlin on the bench over Kirchner - Kirchner hasn't played a lot lately and O'Loughlin has shown he is solid but also has a bit of pace and can score tries.
I do not get McFadden and Kirchner both on the bench.

Kirchner's played 4 of their last 5 games, twice at 13 and twice at 15 so I would have thought he was a good bench option.

[curates_egg]

Sorry but
(a) we shouldn't be going into the biggest game of the season with such a big question mark over selection that we need to select two polar opposites from our squad on the bench in case the two selected players are a risk too big;

I completely agree. I've been saying that all week. But the point you made above was that the bench choice 'doesn't mitigate the risk'.

In fact, that's exactly what it does, rightly or wrongly.
Having two experience outside backs to come on for Carbery and Byrne by definition decreases the risk to starting them.

Whether you or I agree or not with it is another argument.

Well we are splitting hairs but, yes, bringing on two defenders would solve the problem of a shaky defence. However, if the damage is already done, it will not solve the other problem that we will have of needing to score tries. Instead, by taking off two attacking players, we will have limited our ability to solve the new problem. Hence why I think it is a bench selection that doubles down on the general risk of the situation.

[curates_egg]

Kirchner's played 4 of their last 5 games, twice at 13 and twice at 15 so I would have thought he was a good bench option.

Well that is true. But he hasn't played competitive rugby in 4 weeks (the Scarlets game) and was injured in the interim; so it depends how your glass is.
Furthermore, I think O'Loughlin has shown himself to be a better 13 and wing for us this season, so I would have thought he was a better bench option.

[riocard911]

Enda Kenny wrote: "Kirchner's played 4 of their last 5 games, twice at 13 and twice at 15 so I would have thought he was a good bench option."

Not merely that, but his performances in those matches have been top notch. Certainly his appearances at 13 were the best I can remember him in that position. Confident!!!!

[wixfjord]

Sorry but
(a) we shouldn't be going into the biggest game of the season with such a big question mark over selection that we need to select two polar opposites from our squad on the bench in case the two selected players are a risk too big;

I completely agree. I've been saying that all week. But the point you made above was that the bench choice 'doesn't mitigate the risk'.

In fact, that's exactly what it does, rightly or wrongly.
Having two experience outside backs to come on for Carbery and Byrne by definition decreases the risk to starting them.

Whether you or I agree or not with it is another argument.

Well we are splitting hairs but, yes, bringing on two defenders would solve the problem of a shaky defence. However, if the damage is already done, it will not solve the other problem that we will have of needing to score tries. Instead, by taking off two attacking players, we will have limited our ability to solve the new problem. Hence why I think it is a bench selection that doubles down on the general risk of the situation.

I'm not at all splitting hairs, I'm replying to your initial point which was that the bench "does not ameliorate the risk being taken by playing Carbery at 15". Leo has actually gone out of his way to do just that by putting in two experienced outside backs and offering two possible options if Carbery or Byrne need to go off.

[curates_egg]

I'm not at all splitting hairs, I'm replying to your initial point which was that the bench "does not ameliorate the risk being taken by playing Carbery at 15". Leo has actually gone out of his way to do just that by putting in two experienced outside backs and offering two possible options if Carbery or Byrne need to go off.

We seem to be going around in circles but I disagree. Maybe "splitting hairs" was the wrong term but you are definitely missing my point.
The possible defensive problems is the initial problem. If we leak tries as a result of that problem, we will need to score. But, if we bring on two guys who don't score and aren't creative (no matter how solid they are), that is not going to solve the new problem of needing scores. The overall situation remains a "risk". So that bench selection does not - in my opinion - solve the "risk" of selecting Carbery at 15 and Byrne on the wing, but - rather - doubles down on it.
Selecting a solid defender who also scores tries (ROL) would have made more sense to me in terms of risk mitigation... even if I don't fully understand why we need to take the risk in the first place.

Anyway, we are where we are. The management knows best and all that. They certainly have given Carbery a lot of time at 15 (in spite of his public statements that he wants to play at 10). So, this is very much a management driven strategy. Let's hope they're right.
It should be a good game regardless.

[leinsterforever]

Not the team I would have gone for, but, hey ho, hope it works out

[bargepole]

Weve much more impact off the bench in the forwards

We definitely do. That's a big standout. Whatever about Molony starting, he's springy enough to cause them trouble (particularly with Johnson throwing later on) and VDF/Healy/Tracy are three fair impact subs to bring in.

I've said enough about my thoughts on the backline selection, but having Ferg & Kirch to come in does lessen that a bit.

Incredibly excited now! Allez les bleus!

Johnson may have the 16 shirt, but that doesn't necessarily mean he'll be coming on as hooker.

If Tommy Taylor can stay on for 80 mins, as he often does, we might bring Ash on in the back row, to give us another big ball-carrying option running down the 10-12 channel. JS will not be too chuffed to see this monster truck heading his way.

[Lar]

Enda Kenny wrote: "Kirchner's played 4 of their last 5 games, twice at 13 and twice at 15 so I would have thought he was a good bench option."

Her name is Edna.

Enda is a different person completely.