Our 2 NIQs and 23 for Champions Cup

[backrower8]

While I still have some concerns about his defensive reads and overall integration to our systems, my gut tells me that having Lowe in our 15 makes us a potential Cup winning side in one stroke. Trouble is we can only have 2 NIQs and with Fardy locked in as one of the two, Nick McCarthy is not being given the minutes to make a case for ousting JGP. So Lowe will be left out.

Back 3 is the area we are most lacking in to beat the 'Total Rugby' squads of Clermonts, Saracens and La Rochelle - and Lowe is most likely a very big part of the solution.

Very hard to pick 23 but if all fit (except for Jamie) I would go with:

Healy, Cronin, Furlong
Toner, Fardy
SOB, Conan, VDF

Luke, J10
Henshaw, Ringrose
Lowe, Carberry, Byrne

Subs: Byrne, Jack, Porter, Ryan, Leavy, McCarthy, Isa, Larmour

It's youth over experience with Rob losing out and there is an issue if Joey has to manage a game at 10 given lack of cockpit time. Most likely Isa will be retained on the wing and Ross Byrne will bench.

[wixfjord]

It's not 2 NIQs just to be clear. It's a max of two 'non-Europeans'. Saffers and Islanders (Isa) don't count.

Also you'd have Byrne over Tracy in a Euro squad??

In fairness to JGP he has been playing well and was very good in Thomond, so no reason to 'give McCarthy minutes' at the moment.

[backrower8]

It's not 2 NIQs just to be clear. It's a max of two 'non-Europeans'. Saffers and Islanders (Isa) don't count.

Also you'd have Byrne over Tracy in a Euro squad??

In fairness to JGP he has been playing well and was very good in Thomond, so no reason to 'give McCarthy minutes' at the moment.

Thanks for clarifying the point on nationalities. I knew I was missing a trick given Isa is not a problem under the rules.

As for Byrne over Tracy. I am a big fan of the Byrne twins. Big rugby intelligence, big hearts/engines, great mobility and ball handlers. I guess I am reaching for better darts than Tracy, so whomever has the best stats in that regard. I feel we are cursed as regards hookers who can throw accurately since Munch retired.

Back to JGP, yes he has improved (he needed to) but are you saying that you would select him and Fardy as your 2 non-Europeans?

[wixfjord]

It's not 2 NIQs just to be clear. It's a max of two 'non-Europeans'. Saffers and Islanders (Isa) don't count.

Also you'd have Byrne over Tracy in a Euro squad??

In fairness to JGP he has been playing well and was very good in Thomond, so no reason to 'give McCarthy minutes' at the moment.

Thanks for clarifying the point on nationalities. I knew I was missing a trick given Isa is not a problem under the rules.

As for Byrne over Tracy. I am a big fan of the Byrne twins. Big rugby intelligence, big hearts/engines, great mobility and ball handlers. I guess I am reaching for better darts than Tracy, so whomever has the best stats in that regard. I feel we are cursed as regards hookers who can throw accurately since Munch retired.

Back to JGP, yes he has improved (he needed to) but are you saying that you would select him and Fardy as your 2 non-Europeans?

Hmm not sure Byrne has done anything to warrant overtaking Tracy this season.

It depends on the game. I think Lowe needs more time to bed into our defensive systems and is a little bit loose.
Playing him at home against Glas might be worth it, but we might need more solidity for Mont away for example.

JGP does offer us something very different, and that variance between him and McGrath is useful.

[backrower8]

It's not 2 NIQs just to be clear. It's a max of two 'non-Europeans'. Saffers and Islanders (Isa) don't count.

Also you'd have Byrne over Tracy in a Euro squad??

In fairness to JGP he has been playing well and was very good in Thomond, so no reason to 'give McCarthy minutes' at the moment.

Thanks for clarifying the point on nationalities. I knew I was missing a trick given Isa is not a problem under the rules.

As for Byrne over Tracy. I am a big fan of the Byrne twins. Big rugby intelligence, big hearts/engines, great mobility and ball handlers. I guess I am reaching for better darts than Tracy, so whomever has the best stats in that regard. I feel we are cursed as regards hookers who can throw accurately since Munch retired.

Back to JGP, yes he has improved (he needed to) but are you saying that you would select him and Fardy as your 2 non-Europeans?

Hmm not sure Byrne has done anything to warrant overtaking Tracy this season.

It depends on the game. I think Lowe needs more time to bed into our defensive systems and is a little bit loose.
Playing him at home against Glas might be worth it, but we might need more solidity for Mont away for example.

JGP does offer us something very different, and that variance between him and McGrath is useful.

I am reflecting a wish looking to shake up Tracy and also see what Byrne could do with more opportunities. Appreciate that promoting him to starter for Champions Cup is a bit too radical.

Your points on Lowe are very reasoned. I agree he is loose, which he also was against the Lions in the summer. I still feel we need him (a world class finisher) for us to be a potential cup winning team, so maybe more time spent bedding in via Pro14 before the QFs is the correct thing.

It has been noticeable how few minutes McCarthy has been given in the last two games. Most notably circa 3 versus Munster and 10 against Connacht (which only came about for Luke's HIA). He is better than that. I wonder why.

[arsebiscuits1]

As if competing against people in the same position isn't tough enough, the Aussie and Kiwi guys have to compete against each other for their place now too.

The more comfortable Lowe gets, the more difficult it will be to leave him out.

Fardy has already firmly established himself as undroppable under any circumstance.

So the weak link here appears to be JGP. But to his credit he has played well recently with a very strong showing against Munster. The way he can up the pace in the final quarter of a game really has worked to our strength in games also. We tend to get a lot more mobile as we change the back row and bring on others and JGP does that well.

Having said that I also trust Luke to play 78 minutes and give McCarthy a token few minutes off the bench. But I am not keen on the prospect of Nick playing 70 minutes of knock out rugby if Luke ships an injury.

Remember Marsh in the Ricoh against Wasps like?

[Ruckedtobits]

Interesting discussion, but there's no way that Rob will be displaced for these games, and certainly not by somebody - even Joey - coming back from no competitive rugby for two months. Equally, cannot see any reason for displacing Treacy by Byrne, who is probably our worst line-out thrower. Treacy is our strongest scrummaging hooker and his ball carrying, whilst not as likely to create gaps, is very efficient and he can take really big hits without losing possession.

Could understand Lowe being picked against Glasgow to try and get the bonus point win and hopefully end any debate before we get to MontP. But generally consider that these two games are not the time to experiment with new players or guys just returning from injury. These are the two last games in the pre-6N set which make up part 2 of the Season and the selections have been planned on what has happened from 2nd December in Treviso onward, in terms of availability, minutes played, form and other results (primarily in Europe). This is Pro Rugby not Club rugby where decisions are made from week to week. Pro Rugby must make selection and training plans for segments of the Season which take account of these factors mentioned previously and also have to take account of National Players rest time and game minutes and what St Joe wants from week to week - based on injuries and form elsewhere in the Provinces.

In that regard, both Rob K and Treacy appear to be in National Squad Plans since the Autumn and therefore there's no way they will not be in Leo's plans.

[backrower8]

Interesting discussion, but there's no way that Rob will be displaced for these games, and certainly not by somebody - even Joey - coming back from no competitive rugby for two months. Equally, cannot see any reason for displacing Treacy by Byrne, who is probably our worst line-out thrower. Treacy is our strongest scrummaging hooker and his ball carrying, whilst not as likely to create gaps, is very efficient and he can take really big hits without losing possession.

Could understand Lowe being picked against Glasgow to try and get the bonus point win and hopefully end any debate before we get to MontP. But generally consider that these two games are not the time to experiment with new players or guys just returning from injury. These are the two last games in the pre-6N set which make up part 2 of the Season and the selections have been planned on what has happened from 2nd December in Treviso onward, in terms of availability, minutes played, form and other results (primarily in Europe). This is Pro Rugby not Club rugby where decisions are made from week to week. Pro Rugby must make selection and training plans for segments of the Season which take account of these factors mentioned previously and also have to take account of National Players rest time and game minutes and what St Joe wants from week to week - based on injuries and form elsewhere in the Provinces.

In that regard, both Rob K and Treacy appear to be in National Squad Plans since the Autumn and therefore there's no way they will not be in Leo's plans.

All fair enough and probable given the parameters you have outlined - but do you agree with all of that, or would you pick different personnel in any positions?

[Raydollard]

Like that team, which is enormously potent and a better collection of players than any other European team have, but I doubt that that will be it. Management has shown a lack of guts for years now. To think that Rob Kearney will likely start is an example. He should be dispensed with as for quite some time now he offers damn all.

[neiliog93]

If McCarthy got more exposure and looked good, you'd definitely sacrifice JGP sooner than Lowe or Fardy (not trying to rekindle the scrum-half debate, but even if we take the most positive appraisal possible of JGP that's probably still the case).

[Keith]

These rules really are ridiculous when you look at teams like Toulon and Montpellier. Does anyone know the real reason why this rule exits?

[ronk]

.

It has been noticeable how few minutes McCarthy has been given in the last two games. Most notably circa 3 versus Munster and 10 against Connacht (which only came about for Luke's HIA). He is better than that. I wonder why.

He didn’t play great, I thought.

[neiliog93]

Toulon etc get away with it because it only applies to Argentinians (many of whom are entitled to French, Spanish, Italian or German passports due to family lineage and claim them before moving), Kiwis and Aussies. The same is true to a lesser extent for Kiwis and Aussies themselves of course.

Islanders and Saffers are are fine under the rule, in whatever quantity the clubs want.

[wixfjord]

These rules really are ridiculous when you look at teams like Toulon and Montpellier. Does anyone know the real reason why this rule exits?

The rules are the rules. Mont, Toulon, Racing, Clermont etc are smart enough to observe and navigate around them. Sometimes French clubs fall foul of them in a give season and just choose players per game. Toulon & Racing have in the past iirc.

On a similar theme there haven't been too many questions asked about how Leinster managed to get themselves into this position.
Was the rule not known/not investigated or did they just sign Lowe because he was a good available player and they decided to deal with the rule later?

[Keith]

Toulon etc get away with it because it only applies to Argentinians (many of whom are entitled to French, Spanish, Italian or German passports due to family lineage and claim them before moving), Kiwis and Aussies. The same is true to a lesser extent for Kiwis and Aussies themselves of course.

Islanders and Saffers are are fine under the rule, in whatever quantity the clubs want.

I get that but why is this rule in place? If it's to prevent teams being filled with foreign players it certainly isn't working and wouldn't make sense because like you say saffers and PIs aren't included. Also does this rule apply to canadians, Moldovans etc?

[neiliog93]

Toulon etc get away with it because it only applies to Argentinians (many of whom are entitled to French, Spanish, Italian or German passports due to family lineage and claim them before moving), Kiwis and Aussies. The same is true to a lesser extent for Kiwis and Aussies themselves of course.

Islanders and Saffers are are fine under the rule, in whatever quantity the clubs want.

I get that but why is this rule in place? If it's to prevent teams being filled with foreign players it certainly isn't working and wouldn't make sense because like you say saffers and PIs aren't included. Also does this rule apply to canadians, Moldovans etc?

If a country has signed an association agreement with the EU, its citizens are included under the Kolpak ruling, and thus their right to live and work in EU member states cannot be challenged legally. Moldova and Georgia both signed association agreements with the EU in 2016, so they don't count. So Dmitri Arhip does not count as a non-Kolpak player for the Ospreys, and neither do the plethora of Georgians in France (so from an Irish rugby perspective, rather annoying that Georgia signed the association agreement in 2016!).

Argentina, Canada, the USA, New Zealand and Australia do not have association agreements with the EU and thus their citizens are not covered under the Kolpak ruling. But there are currently free trade agreements being negotiated between the EU and Japan (expected to be signed soon), the EU and New Zealand, the EU and Australia, and the EU and Canada, while the mooted TTIP free trade deal between the EU and USA is all but dead because of Trump. It's my understanding that as these free trade deals are actually much more substantive versions of association agreements, if signed they would count as association agreements for the purposes of Kolpak eligibility. But then again I am not a scholar of international/European law. Can anyone confirm/deny?

[artaneboy]

If McCarthy got more exposure and looked good, you'd definitely sacrifice JGP sooner than Lowe or Fardy (not trying to rekindle the scrum-half debate, but even if we take the most positive appraisal possible of JGP that's probably still the case).

Of course if it comes to having one of those precious two non-Kolpack starting and playing at least 60 minutes, as opposed to likely being a tactical sub playing a maximum of 20, as would likely beJGP's selection, then Fardy and Lowe on current form and unique value, are going to be picked foe the big games. That's assuming of course that McCarthy can provide a decent standard and range of variety in the sub SH position. And while I'm not convinced he's a s good as some claim here, he's done okay in that role lately.

[Barry]

Toulon etc get away with it because it only applies to Argentinians (many of whom are entitled to French, Spanish, Italian or German passports due to family lineage and claim them before moving), Kiwis and Aussies. The same is true to a lesser extent for Kiwis and Aussies themselves of course.

Islanders and Saffers are are fine under the rule, in whatever quantity the clubs want.

assume that someone has or is delving through the 3 lad's family history to find a route to an EU passport for them

[ChrisUppy]

What's frightening to me is the prospect of either McCarthey ór McGrath getting injured in the warm up to a big game and us being forced to make two changes late changes to the squad as a result

or

If McGrath or McCarthey sustain a long term injury then it effectively rules one of Fardy or Lowe out for the equivalent time too

[flanders09]

[/quote]

These rules really are ridiculous when you look at teams like Toulon and Montpellier. Does anyone know the real reason why this rule exits?

The rules are the rules. Mont, Toulon, Racing, Clermont etc are smart enough to observe and navigate around them. Sometimes French clubs fall foul of them in a give season and just choose players per game. Toulon & Racing have in the past iirc.

On a similar theme there haven't been too many questions asked about how Leinster managed to get themselves into this position.
Was the rule not known/not investigated or did they just sign Lowe because he was a good available player and they decided to deal with the rule later?

Yeah - I was wondering about this one too. This could have slipped through the cracks - particularly if being looked after by the same person responsible for the Visa Nacewa mess up......