The Quickening 2018

[johng]

Once again Jay Dees and Lentil Men. The 8th installing enthralment of it's kind and the first with a conference system

I am keeping with a top 6 format over the 2 conferences as these will likely be the 6 teams that contest the playoffs.

Cheetahs play the kings twice over the next few weeks to catch up their fixtures.

Top 6 Fixtures

*Fri 16 Feb Glasgow v Cheetahs (7.35pm) Live on BBC Alba
*Sat 17 Feb Leinster v Scarlets (3.15pm) Live on Sky Sports
*Fri 23 Feb Munster v Glasgow (7pm) Live on Sky Sports
Fri 2 Mar Ulster v Glasgow (7.35pm) Live on BBC NI
*Sat 3 Mar Scarlets v Leinster (3.15pm) Live on Sky Sports
23/24/25 Mar Munster v Scarlets
W/E 30 March Euro Quarters
6/7/8 Apr Scarlets v Glasgow
*13/14/15 Apr Cheetahs v Munster
W/e 22 April Euro Semis
27/28/29 Apr Munster v Ulster

* = Teams in the same conference

Home and away for each team

Home
Glasgow Cheetahs.Zebre.Connacht.Edinburgh
Munster Zebre.Glasgow.Scarlets.Ulster
Cheetahs Connacht.Cardiff.Munster

Scarlets Ulster.Leinster.Glasgow
Leinster Scarlets.Kings.Zebre.Treviso
Ulster Kings.Edinburgh.Glasgow.Ospreys

Away
Glasgow Dragons.Munster.Ulster.Scarlets
Munster Cardiff.Edinburgh.Kings.Cheetahs
Cheetahs Cardiff.Glasgow.Ospreys.Dragons.Kings

Scarlets Treviso.Leinster.Munster.Edinburgh.Dragons.
Leinster Edinburgh.Scarlets.Ospreys.Connacht
Ulster Scarlets.Cardiff.Edinburgh.Munster

Conf 1
Hard to see much change.

Glasgow Despite having injuries and a lot of hard away games unlikely to be caught without any Euro distractions.

Munster Barring a total implosion they are unlikely to be caught by the Cheetahs although they have a SA tour between the Euro QFs and SFs which could be a test of their squad.

Cheetahs Look like a great team at home and will probably pick up 10 points in the next 2 weeks but they have only 3 home games after that and 5 away.

Conf 2
Hoping to see a reversal of positions 1 and 2.

Scarlets Also have 5 away games (Although 1 is v Dragons in the Mill Stad) their 3 home games are v top 6 teams. If they win in Bath next week they have a chance of Euro distractions. Also the nearer to the end of the season it gets the more favorable conditions could suit them.

Leinster Have 3 very handy home games plus the Scarlets. 2 Italian teams at home between the Euro knockouts when Munster are in SA. If we can win the home game v Scarlets I would be confident that our better run in should get us home ahead of them. Long way to go yet.

Ulster Bit of a shambles at the moment but Matt Gitteau or Berrwick Barnes or whoever they have coming in may help them regroup. They have a home and away against their nearest rivals for 3rd spot (Embra) which will make or break their playoff spot. Next week will decide if they have any hope of Euro distractions.

[curates_egg]

Thanks John. I find this one of the most helpful threads each year.
That said, this year it is quite straightforward now. We're in a shoot-out with Scarlets. The double-header is our everything.

[johng]

The double-header is our everything.

Eggs act ery.

[paddyor]

I think the away game in Embra will be quite tough tbh. Far more capable side this season than last and they're in the hun for a play-off spot and Champions cup qualification. They're not the team who went side to side in our 22 last season for little gain. They're likely to be missing Nel, Berghan, Toolis, Watson and possibly Gilchrist and maybe Ford and the LH who's name escapes me. But so will we.

[johng]

We always seem to struggle in Scotland

[COYBIB]

Would be hopeful of winning all of those home games and in the case of Kings, Treviso and Zebre, winning them well, perhaps enough to eliminate Scarlets' BP advantage over us (and we have greater points difference), key from the home games may be beating Scarlets whilst denying them a LBP.

All of those away games seem tricky to me, but trips to Edinburgh, Swansea and Galway have never been easy for us.

On the plus side, I think we've got enough momentum and breathing space over Ulster, coupled with their form, that a home quarter should be the minimum outcome, but pipping Scarlets would be a massive advantage to get that rest week and home advantage for a trip to the final in our own backyard.

Long, long way to go, but we've put ourselves in a very healthy position over the Winter-pro season.

[bluemagic]

Anyone else think the conference system is bullshit and completely favours the welsh/Scottish teams?

Scarlets have played this season:
- King (H)
- Zebre (A)
- Ulster (A)
- Edinburgh (H)
- Connacht (H)
- Ospreys (A)
- Cardiff (H)
- Bennetoin (H)
- Kings (a)
- Cheetas (H)
- Ospreys (H)
- Cardiff (A)
- Dragons (H)

Considering that fixture list when we’ve played munster home and away, Ulster home and away, Glasgow, cheetas away we’re doing incredibly well to be 2 points behind
-

[Oldschool]

Thanks John. I find this one of the most helpful threads each year.
That said, this year it is quite straightforward now. We're in a shoot-out with Scarlets. The double-header is our everything.

+1
Next step will be the points predictions.
After the European Pool stages are over perhaps.

[molloyjh]

Anyone else think the conference system is bullshit and completely favours the welsh/Scottish teams?

Scarlets have played this season:
- King (H)
- Zebre (A)
- Ulster (A)
- Edinburgh (H)
- Connacht (H)
- Ospreys (A)
- Cardiff (H)
- Bennetoin (H)
- Kings (a)
- Cheetas (H)
- Ospreys (H)
- Cardiff (A)
- Dragons (H)

Considering that fixture list when we’ve played munster home and away, Ulster home and away, Glasgow, cheetas away we’re doing incredibly well to be 2 points behind
-

Yeah there very much is an imbalance there in terms of the quality of opposition we face in the local derbies. That said we're 5 from 5 there. The difference between Scarlets and ourselves is that in their 2 losses (away to Cheetahs and Ulster) they managed 2 LBPs. In our 2 (away to Cheetahs and Glasgow) we didn't. The luck of the draw is literally just that. Luck. It worked for them this year, it might work for us next year. Either way we have home games against Kings, Benetton and Zebre to come. They're away to Treviso and Dragons. They are also away to Edinburgh, but we're also away to a truly awful Ospreys too. So the fixture list is kinder to us from here on in. The only way they top the conference from here is if they get the better of us in the head to head games in Feb/March.

[Oldschool]

Anyone else think the conference system is bullshit and completely favours the welsh/Scottish teams?

Scarlets have played this season:
- King (H)
- Zebre (A)
- Ulster (A)
- Edinburgh (H)
- Connacht (H)
- Ospreys (A)
- Cardiff (H)
- Bennetoin (H)
- Kings (a)
- Cheetas (H)
- Ospreys (H)
- Cardiff (A)
- Dragons (H)

Considering that fixture list when we’ve played munster home and away, Ulster home and away, Glasgow, cheetas away we’re doing incredibly well to be 2 points behind
-

Yeah there very much is an imbalance there in terms of the quality of opposition we face in the local derbies. That said we're 5 from 5 there. The difference between Scarlets and ourselves is that in their 2 losses (away to Cheetahs and Ulster) they managed 2 LBPs. In our 2 (away to Cheetahs and Glasgow) we didn't. The luck of the draw is literally just that. Luck. It worked for them this year, it might work for us next year. Either way we have home games against Kings, Benetton and Zebre to come. They're away to Treviso and Dragons. They are also away to Edinburgh, but we're also away to a truly awful Ospreys too. So the fixture list is kinder to us from here on in. The only way they top the conference from here is if they get the better of us in the head to head games in Feb/March.

Think Ospreys are starting to improve, might be tougher to beat by the time we play them.

[molloyjh]

Think Ospreys are starting to improve, might be tougher to beat by the time we play them.

Maybe they are, but I'm not so sure about that. I didn't see the game against Cardiff, but I did see the Scarlets game. And Ospreys were truly hopeless in that one. That game is the week after the 6Ns though and they may have their internationals back while we won't. But I'd still back us to win that one as of now tbh.

[arsebiscuits1]

Call me naive, but I think we will take the Scarlets home and away. 8 points from those 2 fixtures I reckon to put us 5 points clear (I hope!)

[Barry]

Tempting fate a lot here – starting with the Scarcens game, we potentially have a further 8 or 9 games to the end of the season with the possibility of all but 2 been played in Dublin (1 in Galway & 1 in Bilbao). Certainly can’t blame the schedule for April and May if we fail to land some silverware.
All sorts of possibilities for the weekend of 5th May – we could have a free weekend if we finish 1st or outside the top 3 in our conference. Have a home QF if we finish 2nd or worst case scenario, a trip to SA if Cheetahs finish 2nd in conference A and we come 3rd in conference B.

1st April – Saracens (Aviva)
7th April – Zebra (RDS)
14th April – Treviso (RDS)
21st April – EPCR Semi (hopefully v Scarlets in the Aviva)
28th April – Connaught (Sportsground)
5th May – PRO14 QF (hopefully either a free weekend or a game in Dublin)
12th May – EPRC Final (Bilbao)
19th May – PRO14 Semi (hopefully in the Aviva)
26th May – PRO14 Final (Aviva)

[johng]

Euro Distractions for Leinster Munster Scarlets. Also 6N distractions.

No 6N worries for Cheetahs they could make a bit of hay. Away to Cardiff, Glasgow and Ospreys and home to Connacht. They also got their expected 10 points v the Kings leaving them only 3 points behind Munster who they play at home in April. Hmmmm. If they put a good run together during the 6N things could get tight.

[blockhead]

Euro Distractions for Leinster Munster Scarlets. Also 6N distractions.

No 6N worries for Cheetahs they could make a bit of hay. Away to Cardiff, Glasgow and Ospreys and home to Connacht. They also got their expected 10 points v the Kings leaving them only 3 points behind Munster who they play at home in April. Hmmmm. If they put a good run together during the 6N things could get tight.

Yep, and if they (Cheetahs) finished 2nd, the 3rd placed team in our conference would have to go down there for a play-off and probable defeat. And the 2nd placed team in our conference would probably have a home playoff V the Brokebok Ligginds. Could be an interesting end to the season.

[johng]

There is also the pie in the sky possibility that both ourselves and Munster make a HC final.

Munster may have a semifinal the week before and we (again pie in the sky presuming we top the conference) get a week off.

Then the week after the final we play Munster again in a Pro 14 semi.

Now that would be mad Ted.

Euro final as a warmup for the Pro 14/

[riocard911]

There is also the pie in the sky possibility that both ourselves and Munster make a HC final.

Munster may have a semifinal the week before and we (again pie in the sky presuming we top the conference) get a week off.

Then the week after the final we play Munster again in a Pro 14 semi.

Now that would be mad Ted.

Euro final as a warmup for the Pro 14/

Sure would be mad. It'd be my dream scenario. Bring. It. On!!!!

[simonokeeffe]

There is also the pie in the sky possibility that both ourselves and Munster make a HC final.

Munster may have a semifinal the week before and we (again pie in the sky presuming we top the conference) get a week off.

Then the week after the final we play Munster again in a Pro 14 semi.

Now that would be mad Ted.

Euro final as a warmup for the Pro 14/

Sure would be mad. It'd be my dream scenario. Bring. It. On!!!!

Our second stringers have a good record this season sure

[footrush]

There is also the pie in the sky possibility that both ourselves and Munster make a HC final.

Munster may have a semifinal the week before and we (again pie in the sky presuming we top the conference) get a week off.

Then the week after the final we play Munster again in a Pro 14 semi.

Now that would be mad Ted.

Euro final as a warmup for the Pro 14/

Sure would be mad. It'd be my dream scenario. Bring. It. On!!!!

Personally would fancy the weekend in Bilbao with my friends from ASM no matter which other side gets to the final, if it’s not us will be supporting them should they get there !. For my money the finest supporters in Europe !. Saracens v Toulon would be the stuff of nightmares for me, as it was months ago when I decided to go.

[arsebiscuits1]

I would take great pleasure framing all the bizarre excuses the English media would throw out if Munster and Leinster managed to make up 2 finals ha