Leinster v Llanelli European semi

[carlow man]

An intimidating atmosphere would be great to apply pressure on the scarlets players e.g millennium stadium in Cardiff, but not sure Leinster supporters are anywhere like scarlets fans. I'm sure they will be in party mode come Saturday and trying to make themselves as noisy as possible being away from home. But having been to parc y scarlets a few times, i found their welcome to the opposing team during match time to be uncomfortable bordering on nasty at times. They like to get in the ear of the officials from the first minute and the atmosphere can turn very sour if the home team are getting beaten and outplayed. Not saying I would expect them to roll out the red carpet but I and a few others I know who have been there can testify that the scarlets fans coming on Saturday may not be the perfect fans their coach is telling everyone. In my experience I may add as I'm sure someone will counter my argument in due course!!

[Oldschool]

They have, and I still don't believe them.

Imagine if Luke and Lowe were named in the side but Luke broke down in the captain's run, we'd then have to change our starting scrumhalf, sub scrumhalf, left winger, and number 23. To me, that is not something that we would have accepted as being a possibility when we signed Lowe.

So what's your conspiracy theory? What do you think happened?
What do believe might have happened, who didn't talk to who or who should have talked to who?
Maybe JGB has developed a lot quicker than expected and maybe Jlo has also exceeded initial expectations.
The effect of either one of those facts would be a longer period of "anticipated" overlap where the 2 limit would be significant.
Always a possibility but better to be conservative.
As an aside.
JLo is overrated at the moment and I think we'll be fine without him, we have adequate cover.
JGP is much more important to the squad at this point in time cos we don't have adequate cover.
That of course could change in a very short period of time but just not this season.

[johng]

Maybe JGB has developed a lot quicker than expected

Jamie Gibson Bark. Now I like that one.

[Oldschool]

Maybe JGB has developed a lot quicker than expected

Jamie Gibson Bark. Now I like that one.

It's Bite.
Jamison Gibson Bite(s).

[CiaranIrl]

I'm aware of what the party line is, but as I said, I don't believe it.

Yeah I was focusing on Lowe because he arrived late and because McCarthy should have been getting more game time in advance, but yeah it could have been Fardy. You get my point anyway.

I'm also aware that he can qualify for Ireland but as I've said before I don't think that Lowe's talent/wages justifies us having a selection issue for nearly two whole seasons. I would be more inclined to believe the party line if McCarthy had played more, if they'd mentioned this scenario in advance of/when he was left out of the European squad initially, or if JGP had been sent down to Munster during the summer, but without doing anything (in my opinion) to prepare for it then it just doesn't stack up for me.

I think it's entirely possible that you're right, and Leinster had no idea about this consequence when they signed whoever was signed third - Fardy or Lowe. I have no idea really, but I definitely remember everything being very vague at the start. We announced it and Lowe turned up an eternity later, and the details of the rule only emerged very slowly after that. It felt at the time that it was a random journalist that flagged it first. Maybe they knew and kept it to themselves, but it's plausible that they didn't cop to it until after the deals were done.

Where I think I differ from you on this is that even if they did know about it, they should have signed him. It doesn't matter who was signed last. It's so rare to find a player of the quality of Lowe & Fardy that if they become available, just grab them quick. I'd rather one of them to an army of Sykes's / Kirchener's etc. etc. I couldn't give a rats ass if we're spending money that could have been used on two mediocre players. Players of their quality win trophies. They're rare gems.

[domhnallj]

I'm aware of what the party line is, but as I said, I don't believe it.

Yeah I was focusing on Lowe because he arrived late and because McCarthy should have been getting more game time in advance, but yeah it could have been Fardy. You get my point anyway.

I'm also aware that he can qualify for Ireland but as I've said before I don't think that Lowe's talent/wages justifies us having a selection issue for nearly two whole seasons. I would be more inclined to believe the party line if McCarthy had played more, if they'd mentioned this scenario in advance of/when he was left out of the European squad initially, or if JGP had been sent down to Munster during the summer, but without doing anything (in my opinion) to prepare for it then it just doesn't stack up for me.

I don't blame you not believing them. Can anyone remember what happened the first time we sent a squad to SA?

[Oldschool]

I'm aware of what the party line is, but as I said, I don't believe it.

Yeah I was focusing on Lowe because he arrived late and because McCarthy should have been getting more game time in advance, but yeah it could have been Fardy. You get my point anyway.

I'm also aware that he can qualify for Ireland but as I've said before I don't think that Lowe's talent/wages justifies us having a selection issue for nearly two whole seasons. I would be more inclined to believe the party line if McCarthy had played more, if they'd mentioned this scenario in advance of/when he was left out of the European squad initially, or if JGP had been sent down to Munster during the summer, but without doing anything (in my opinion) to prepare for it then it just doesn't stack up for me.

I don't blame you not believing them. Can anyone remember what happened the first time we sent a squad to SA?

IIRC.
Won one.
Lost one and the ref didn't help.

[curates_egg]

While we're on the subject of J10 and JPG, I think Saturday's match is the perfect opportunity for our expected half-back pairing to make amends for the horror show they delivered vs the Scarlets last May in the RDS. I have no doubt, that they will want to do so, and every confidence, that they will succeed!!!!

Pigson Gark, Gibson Bark, whatever.

[LeRouxIsPHat]

I'm also aware that he can qualify for Ireland but as I've said before I don't think that Lowe's talent/wages justifies us having a selection issue for nearly two whole seasons. I would be more inclined to believe the party line if McCarthy had played more, if they'd mentioned this scenario in advance of/when he was left out of the European squad initially, or if JGP had been sent down to Munster during the summer, but without doing anything (in my opinion) to prepare for it then it just doesn't stack up for me.

Where I think I differ from you on this is that even if they did know about it, they should have signed him. It doesn't matter who was signed last. It's so rare to find a player of the quality of Lowe & Fardy that if they become available, just grab them quick. I'd rather one of them to an army of Sykes's / Kirchener's etc. etc. I couldn't give a rats ass if we're spending money that could have been used on two mediocre players. Players of their quality win trophies. They're rare gems.

Sorry, I can see why you'd say that because of the above post but that's not actually what I meant.

I wasn't saying that his talent/wages don't justify us signing him (despite that being pretty much exactly what I've written ) with this selection issue existing, I was saying that I don't believe Leinster/the IRFU would have justified the signing if they knew about it. In other words, I don't believe that they weighed up the pros (his talent, residency potential) and the cons (big wages when he could potentially miss a game like the one this weekend despite being fit/the quota) and said he was worth it, I think they were unaware the cons existed.

I was calling for a big name signing in the back three for 2/3 summers before we signed Lowe so was delighted to hear we were getting him. I watch most Chiefs games so knew he was great and would get people out of their seats. With all that said, when we signed him we finally had young talent excelling in the back three again and the fact that his arrival did create a selection issue means that I think there was a decision to be made. On balance I'd probably still have signed him regardless but I'd certainly have checked to see who else was out there.

The way it's worked out I don't think we shouldn't have signed him, the only real gripe I have is that we just haven't played McCarthy more often because he was going to be needed. When I say that someone "f**ked up", I mean in terms of not being aware of the rule, not that we shouldn't have brought him on board.

[Xanthippe]

The picture above is a screenshot of a question I asked and Dave Cahill's answer - this conversation took place in February 2010.

If I found the overseas player rule that long ago I'm not sure how anyone could believe the IRFU and/or Leinster Rugby would not know

[Angelsea Angst]

How many tickets have been sold for this match? Will the stadium be full?

[desperado]

How many tickets have been sold for this match? Will the stadium be full?

Counting the seats left on Ticketmaster; there are 43,341 seats sold as of now.

[LeRouxIsPHat]

The picture above is a screenshot of a question I asked and Dave Cahill's answer - this conversation took place in February 2010.

If I found the overseas player rule that long ago I'm not sure how anyone could believe the IRFU and/or Leinster Rugby would not know

Because each club is permitted a maximum of two "foreign" players in any one match squad and our starting left wing, starting second row, and our second choice scrumhalf are all foreign.

Like I said earlier, no point debating it. I'll just have to agree to disagree...with basically everyone.

[Oldschool]

I'm also aware that he can qualify for Ireland but as I've said before I don't think that Lowe's talent/wages justifies us having a selection issue for nearly two whole seasons. I would be more inclined to believe the party line if McCarthy had played more, if they'd mentioned this scenario in advance of/when he was left out of the European squad initially, or if JGP had been sent down to Munster during the summer, but without doing anything (in my opinion) to prepare for it then it just doesn't stack up for me.

Where I think I differ from you on this is that even if they did know about it, they should have signed him. It doesn't matter who was signed last. It's so rare to find a player of the quality of Lowe & Fardy that if they become available, just grab them quick. I'd rather one of them to an army of Sykes's / Kirchener's etc. etc. I couldn't give a rats ass if we're spending money that could have been used on two mediocre players. Players of their quality win trophies. They're rare gems.

Sorry, I can see why you'd say that because of the above post but that's not actually what I meant.

I wasn't saying that his talent/wages don't justify us signing him (despite that being pretty much exactly what I've written ) with this selection issue existing, I was saying that I don't believe Leinster/the IRFU would have justified the signing if they knew about it. In other words, I don't believe that they weighed up the pros (his talent, residency potential) and the cons (big wages when he could potentially miss a game like the one this weekend despite being fit/the quota) and said he was worth it, I think they were unaware the cons existed.

I was calling for a big name signing in the back three for 2/3 summers before we signed Lowe so was delighted to hear we were getting him. I watch most Chiefs games so knew he was great and would get people out of their seats. With all that said, when we signed him we finally had young talent excelling in the back three again and the fact that his arrival did create a selection issue means that I think there was a decision to be made. On balance I'd probably still have signed him regardless but I'd certainly have checked to see who else was out there.

The way it's worked out I don't think we shouldn't have signed him, the only real gripe I have is that we just haven't played McCarthy more often because he was going to be needed. When I say that someone "f**ked up", I mean in terms of not being aware of the rule, not that we shouldn't have brought him on board.

You may have unwittingly touched on it.
Perhaps Leinster knew the situation but still wanted to go ahead with signing JLo.
The issue then would be how to get it past the IRFU.
1. The IRFU turned a blind eye.
2. Some deception was used.
However once the deed was done Leinster then made themselves look like clowns with the Isa Visa deliberately.
They sorted that out so fast that I was suspicious at the time but didn't know why I should be suspicious.
All done to deflect from the fact that there was no mistake.
Yah gotta love a good conspiracy theory.
However when all other possibilities have been eliminated then that which is left must be the answer.
Leinster got their man!

[Ruckedtobits]

So having heard from a man who actually knows what our team will be (Burt in his interview with The42), now some surmise as to what might be key to how the game might go.

On the alternate match thread i.e. the one with Scarlets in the title line, @hugonaut had an excellence piece of analysis about last year's S/F and a detailed expose as to how we lost it. The analysis I suggest is the Ireland v Wales game in February 2018, which Gatland suggested was only lost by a profligate pass by Anscombe in the final minute.

For the record, Leinster participants (12) that day were: RK, FMcF, Joey, J10, Cian, Nugget, Porter, Ryan, Toner, Leavy, Conan, JackMcG.
Scarlets had 11 of whom 9 started.

Ireland had 69% possession: Ireland had 75% territory:
Ireland carried 454 metres: Wales carried 257 metres:
Ireland had 170 runs: Wales had 79 runs
Ireland completed 183 passess: Wales completed 120:
Ireland won 99% of their rucks (139): Wales won 93% of their 58 rucks:
Ireland 100% of their 5 mauls: Wales did not attempt any maul:
Ireland conceded 13 turnovers: Wales conceded 10 turnovers:
Ireland's kicking conversion rate was 56%: Wales success rate was 83%:
Ireland conceded 4 penalties: Wales conceded 9 penalties.

Ireland won 100% of our scrum put-ins:
Ireland won 80% of our line-outs, as did Wales.

So, win the ball, support the ball-carrier well at the breakdown and don't concede turnovers or penalties. Maul from attacking line-outs and kick your penalties.

Not enormously attractive on paper, but a simple way to win this semi-final.

BTW, these head-to-heads will have a major impact on this game:

Healy & Furlong v Evans & Lee:
Toner & Ryan v Beirne & Bulbring;
Fardy & Leavy v Shingler & Davies:
Henshaw & Ringrose v Parkes & Williams:

In each case, my strong preference is for the pair in Blue to prevail.

[ScarletsFan]

Excitement building nicely here in Wales. Really looking forward to this weekend.
The bookies have you lads as favourites, however I think 5-1 is a bit harsh on us.
To be honest though, we haven't hit the fluidity yet this season as we had by the time we played you guys last year, so as painful as it is to say it, I can't see us blowing you guys away like we did first half last year.
We are also down quite a few key personnel, especially in the backs. We have Johnny Mac, Asquith, Prydie and Jonathan Davies out. We also have Jack Ball and Wyn Jones out up front.
We will be up against it, however I can guarantee that the supporters in red will be singing from start to finish. We are also looking at a dry sunny day, which will make it an even better trip.

Can someone clarify though, I've seen mentioned on here that there is a restriction on foreigners playing on Saturday. Is that a rule with you guys or a competition rule?

[fourthirtythree]

Competition, though because of what qualifies as a foreigner it may look like the French can have who they like. Saffas don't count (Kolpak countries) and residency rules are important also (why a Kiwi like Isa doesn't count) so basically it means recently arrived Aussies and Kiwis only.

Bookies rates are ridiculous, Pivac is right to be confident in the press. It's the right attitude for a game that could go either way.

I don't doubt the atmosphere will be outstanding. A big travelling contingent guarantees it.

[ScarletsFan]

Competition, though because of what qualifies as a foreigner it may look like the French can have who they like. Saffas don't count (Kolpak countries) and residency rules are important also (why a Kiwi like Isa doesn't count) so basically it means recently arrived Aussies and Kiwis only.

Bookies rates are ridiculous, Pivac is right to be confident in the press. It's the right attitude for a game that could go either way.

I don't doubt the atmosphere will be outstanding. A big travelling contingent guarantees it.

Cheers for that. So how many allowed in the 23, did I see 2 players only?

[fourthirtythree]

Competition, though because of what qualifies as a foreigner it may look like the French can have who they like. Saffas don't count (Kolpak countries) and residency rules are important also (why a Kiwi like Isa doesn't count) so basically it means recently arrived Aussies and Kiwis only.

Bookies rates are ridiculous, Pivac is right to be confident in the press. It's the right attitude for a game that could go either way.

I don't doubt the atmosphere will be outstanding. A big travelling contingent guarantees it.

Cheers for that. So how many allowed in the 23, did I see 2 players only?

Just the two so with McGrath (scrum half) injured we will be forced to play Gibson-Park and that means one of Lowe or Fardy dropping out. Were I you I'd probably prefer it was Fardy who was out so that makes me think it won't be him!

Also Isa won't be needed in the centre (apparantly but injury updates from Leinster are I think notoriously unreliable - it could turn out to be "a week too soon") so I guess he'll be on the wing with Henshaw and Ringrose combining for a rare start together.

[lotmc]

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2018/ ... mpions-cup

1 Scarlets supporter = 10 of ours; so Pvivac contends.

This has got personal! Pivac has just insulted Leinster supporters. We owe these RWC 2023 backstabbing muppets a good hiding. Bring it on!