Pro14 Final Leinster v Scarlets Sat 6PM Aviva Stadium

[joooooe]

Scarlets sound like the Munster of Wales.

Well they did beat NZ once.

Was there a Play made about it?

Do they sing a song about a place in Newport/Swansea?

[BlueBlue]

Berry, who has refereed 11 international games, will be assisted by Marius Mitrea (FIR) as Assistant Referee 1 and Mike Adamson (SRU) as Assistant Referee 2. Neil Paterson of the SRU will serve as the Television Match Official.

so Not only Berry... but that 'plank' of a TMO / former Ref Paterson.... God help us

Having watched the game back, I'm fine with him. Can't really think of a whole lot he did wrong except bring it back for Munster adv after they kicked it away. The 2 big decisions weren't his. There's a good interview with him on the hard yards podcast towards the end.

No that's not correct, the 2 big decisions were his. The ref has all final decisions. I understand what you mean by the try decision, but the ref still has the final decision. On the card decision, the TMO showed the ref head contact, the assistant ref said to the ref on TV, the previous angle shows head contact. The ref bottled the red card decision, if there was head contact it was a red, no other option. The ref twice ignored the assistant ref, and the TMO to make a decision other than the one they were leading him to take. The ref can do that, but of course he's not the pope, so he can be wrong.

Law 6 : The current Law 6 provides the opportunity for match officials to utilise the TMO , A.4, the referee will remain the sole judge of fact and Law during a match - World Rugby Laws

The buck stops with the ref.

In any case, I thought the ref did fine. 1-mistake, 1-bottled decision and a few curious advantage calls such as Munster having a knock-on advantage, them kicking and it not working out, and he brings the ball back for the scrum. In this case the kick is the advantage, play on.

[Ruckedtobits]

A Euro final, a semi against Munster and a final against Scarlets is pretty daunting considering the quality of the Scarlets team. They looked more than comfortable against Glasgow. The Leinster speedster looks like it is running out of gas. I think Leinster might struggle this Saturday to get a win. It might even come down to the sequence of scores. If they get a lead or good start we might just lack the energy to pull them back.
Hope I,m wrong

In most sports that Irish teams play internationally, I've always considered it as a mark of respect when opponents try to stop us playing our game, certainly it's much more realistic than the usual, "We're not worried about them, we're focused on our own game". Having re-watched Leinster v Racing 92 a couple of times and Lein v Mun twice, one wonders whether the tactics of either of those opponents resulted from that, startling, European semi-final performance against Scarlets, in my view the best 80-min performance by an Irish professional rugby team in a knock-out game. (BTW, IMO opinion the best result in a knock-out game was against Clermont in Bordeaux).

Arguable, the Twin Laurens would not have altered their strategy anyway as what they played suited their Squad, the weather and their unfortunate injuries on the day. Some have argued that Munster's game plan couldn't have been much altered. They had concentrated on their scrum preparation (during a fortnight in which Leinster had done little if any scrum work) and it showed results for the Munster pack. Their defensive line-out picked off a couple of our throws, largely due to the inevitable PO'M excellence, and they made more of a mess of the Leinster maul than either Racing 92 or Saracens had managed.

So, the tactical message for both our most recent opponents after the Scarlets massacre was, "we must up our intensity against their forwards and increase our mid-field line-speed, even at the risk of off-side". In this regard in particular, neither set of officials, IMO, policed the off-side line with any rigour off breakdowns.

Ergo, what should be the tactical response from the Leinster think-tank? Can we replicate, or even improve on, what we have done once already? Can we subjugate the Scarlets' pack, and particularly their back-row, to the same degree as we did in the same venue within the last month? Or, do we try to use some other part of our armoury to the same effect?

This may be the first time that Leo has faced this conundrum. Stuart Lancaster has however faced this dilemma, or one close to it, in the past. In Season 2014-15 England won successive Test matches against Australia and Wales. That the former was in November, at the end of what had proved a poor season for Cheika's Wallabies, was overlooked by most of the English media hoping for World Cup glory. The latter result, Millenium Stadium on a freezing February, Friday night, coming from a 16-8 half-time deficit to win 16- 21 seemed to point to an alignment of the English stars. Seven months later, all those hopes were in tatters as first England succumbed to Wales by 25-28, a debacle compounded by the captain declining to take a, difficult, kick at goal for a draw in the very late stages. That this result was trumped by England's relative humiliation by Australia by 13-33, was overlooked by many and the loss to Wales is almost always described as the main reason that Lancaster lost the English role.

Leinster's challenge on this occasion is not the same as that faced in RWC2015, but it is similar. Against both opponents, England had dominated long stretches of the earlier games with their pack. In neither of the RWC games were their forwards able to exert such control. In the World Cup games, the back-rows of Wales and Australia were dominant influences. But, and it is a big but, both of England's opponent in that RWC had 7 and 10 months respectively to focus on what they needed to change and improve. Scarlets have had less than a month, a period in which they also have had to focus on preparing for the Pro14 semi-final against Warriors, as well as recovering, physically and psychologically, from their first severe mauling in more than two seasons under Pivac.

It's a tough call and there's no text book to consult. Bill Belichick (Patriots) or Bill Walsh (49'ers) may have devised strategies for playing opponents again in-season but neither of them had to face the same opponents in TWO knock-out games within a month. But although there isn't any absolute guidance, here's a quote from a well-respected NFL media analyst, Brian Billick who is reputedly a devotee of both Walsh and Belichick. In the 2013 season he wrote under the headline How to Coach against the same team twice in three weeks

Playing a team twice in a 15-day span presents its own special challenges. Some people think you look at game planning with both contests in mind, holding back certain plays that might be successful for use in the second go-around. This tactic has always struck me as arrogant and unrealistic on its face. A coach would have to be somewhat overconfident to think he can save "good" plays for the second game, operating under the pretense that he can beat his opponent with lesser designs in the initial bout. More realistically, in Game 2, you will work variations of a theme (by formation or scheme) off of principles that proved successful in the first meeting, and you'll also recalibrate your strategy and tactics based on what didn't work. Through the combination of those two endeavors, you hope to come up with a more nuanced plan for the second game, and you hope your team can make the necessary adjustments.
In any such follow-up game, you must be careful to avoid falling into a pattern that resembles a bad imitation of an Abbott & Costello routine, abandoning something that works for you because ...
"They know that we know that they know that we know that they know we're going to do that -- so we will cross them up by doing something different."

Nothing revolutionary here from the oracles of professional field sports. The decisions in this area are never easy but particularly in such a tight time span and when the schedule has made Leinster preparation-time poor. It may be that Option A - faster, stronger, harder - may be inevitable. At very least, Wayne Pivac will recognise it pretty quickly.

[kermischocolate]

A Euro final, a semi against Munster and a final against Scarlets is pretty daunting considering the quality of the Scarlets team. They looked more than comfortable against Glasgow. The Leinster speedster looks like it is running out of gas. I think Leinster might struggle this Saturday to get a win. It might even come down to the sequence of scores. If they get a lead or good start we might just lack the energy to pull them back.
Hope I,m wrong

They looked more than comfortable against Glasgow because Glasgow didn't turn up and made them look much better than they are.

Yes they are a good side but if you guys take them seriously I can't see anything other than a Leinster win.

[curates_egg]

I played on an artificial surface last night. I will take a day or two's rest, but I think I should be ok to watch the final.

[desperado]

No that's not correct, the 2 big decisions were his. The ref has all final decisions. I understand what you mean by the try decision, but the ref still has the final decision. On the card decision, the TMO showed the ref head contact, the assistant ref said to the ref on TV, the previous angle shows head contact. The ref bottled the red card decision, if there was head contact it was a red, no other option. The ref twice ignored the assistant ref, and the TMO to make a decision other than the one they were leading him to take. The ref can do that, but of course he's not the pope, so he can be wrong.

Law 6 : The current Law 6 provides the opportunity for match officials to utilise the TMO , A.4, the referee will remain the sole judge of fact and Law during a match - World Rugby Laws

The buck stops with the ref.

In any case, I thought the ref did fine. 1-mistake, 1-bottled decision and a few curious advantage calls such as Munster having a knock-on advantage, them kicking and it not working out, and he brings the ball back for the scrum. In this case the kick is the advantage, play on.[/quote]

In fairness to Berry on the red card decision; Paterson was adamant 'Stuart, there's no angle where it's clear and obvious what part of the body made contact first' (not a direct quote). Whereas it was very clear Kleyn's head made direct contact (first) with Ross Byrnes head. Byrne was prone and Kleyn launched himself like a torpedo head first into/over the ruck. While I agree you that the buck should stop with the ref, in the instances where they are reliant on repeated replays and angles he would have to assume Paterson looking at a screen directly infront of him, controlling the rw/ff/pause buttons has a better view than him looking at a big screen on the pitch. Unless he was watching it from the Horseshow House. Garces/Mitrea/Gauzere/Raynal/Owens etc would probably have teased it thru a bit more with Paterson.... 'are you sure etc' or even just plain overruled him.

[molloyjh]

In fairness to Berry on the red card decision; Paterson was adamant 'Stuart, there's no angle where it's clear and obvious what part of the body made contact first' (not a direct quote). Whereas it was very clear Kleyn's head made direct contact (first) with Ross Byrnes head. Byrne was prone and Kleyn launched himself like a torpedo head first into/over the ruck. While I agree you that the buck should stop with the ref, in the instances where they are reliant on repeated replays and angles he would have to assume Paterson looking at a screen directly infront of him, controlling the rw/ff/pause buttons has a better view than him looking at a big screen on the pitch. Unless he was watching it from the Horseshow House. Garces/Mitrea/Gauzere/Raynal/Owens etc would probably have teased it thru a bit more with Paterson.... 'are you sure etc' or even just plain overruled him.

It's worth pointing out that Kleyns right arm may well have made contact under Byrnes arm before the head made contact. It's very tight, and for me doesn't change a damn thing, but there was some merit in saying they couldn't tell how initial contact was made. We're talking real technicality stuff, which I don't agree with at all, but that's how I saw it at the game and predicted a yellow on that basis.

[Hornet]

Do they sing a song about a place in Newport/Swansea?

No. It's about little saucepans.

[paddyor]

No that's not correct, the 2 big decisions were his. The ref has all final decisions. I understand what you mean by the try decision, but the ref still has the final decision. On the card decision, the TMO showed the ref head contact, the assistant ref said to the ref on TV, the previous angle shows head contact. The ref bottled the red card decision, if there was head contact it was a red, no other option. The ref twice ignored the assistant ref, and the TMO to make a decision other than the one they were leading him to take. The ref can do that, but of course he's not the pope, so he can be wrong.

Law 6 : The current Law 6 provides the opportunity for match officials to utilise the TMO , A.4, the referee will remain the sole judge of fact and Law during a match - World Rugby Laws

The buck stops with the ref.

In any case, I thought the ref did fine. 1-mistake, 1-bottled decision and a few curious advantage calls such as Munster having a knock-on advantage, them kicking and it not working out, and he brings the ball back for the scrum. In this case the kick is the advantage, play on.

In both cases, he asked the TMO for the decisions because he was better placed to see it.

[ymlaenscarlets]

Scarlets fan here. Massively looking forward to our second consecutive final on the weekend, should be a great match!

There has been talk of your players running on empty, they certainly looked tired in the last 20 against Munster.

However, I wouldn't expect anything other than a Leinster side which is ready and raring to go on Saturday.

I know our boys will be.

We will surely (surely?!) have learnt lessons from the semi-final. We weren't able to impose our game that day. You guys did not allow us to. Credit there.

However, we've responded well to that game, with convincing wins in our last three outings. Let's hope we have one more big performance left in us!

Good luck, and as always, may the best side win!

[curates_egg]

Good luck, and as always, may the best side win!

Given our fatigue, I expect you will play the better rugby, so I'm not sure I want the best side to win
I don't think anyone on here believes the 11 point spread being offered by the bookies.
Enjoy the game.

[mildlyinterested]

you'd have to be worried about saturday, but we are in bonus territory at this stage.

[glenageary]

Scarlets must be more fresh than we are - the Racing/Munster games were attrition and brutally physical - but the lads are in general young and fit, the Oldies had a week's break and Isa only did 40min in the RDS. I do not think that fatigue will be the deciding factor - heavens forbid such the first international against Oz is in two week time!

The hunger and who wants this game the most will be the determinant factor, as always between good quality sides. The lads display against Munster actually convinces me that they will have the mental strength to push on to the finish.

In terms of game plan - whatever we do it cant be an open loose game - it must be a forward route one type of game IMHO - loose suits Scarlets and frankly Glasgow made them look good - Glasgow were shocking in defence. Scarlets are good, but we will not miss tackles like the scots.

I expect a closer game, because while people can say we didnt let scarlets play last time, I think they were undercooked anyway - but I do think we have the intelligence and talent to win. I just need to think back to the 2nd half of Exeter in the Aviva and then have faith. Exeter like scarlets were very dissappointed with the first game and exeter's intensity was way up for the second - they caught us in the first half but we adjusted for the second. I expect something similar expect I do not think that there will be any deficit at half time. The first 20min against Munster shows we have got rid of the slow start issue.

[LeRouxIsPHat]

I think the tiredness thing has been exaggerated. The weather and the officials contributed to a dull performance against Racing and they were also very physical and well organised for the 80 minutes. The Munster game was ferocious from start to finish and thought we generally looked to be in good shape. I did say after the Munster game that Tadhg looked a bit tired and isn't having his usual impact (not that he was bad, and he's made an impact with the dirty work) and obviously Luke and Isa are carrying injuries, but by and large we're in good shape IMO.

Plus this week it looks like we'll have Leavy, Johnny, and Rob to start after missing last week, as well as Healy and Fardy to play from the start. They should give us a big boost.

[Blueberry]

If the reports are true and Sexton, ISA, Leavy and Kearney are all back in with Healy and Fardy starting too I can't see anything other than a Leinster win. The pack is just too strong.

Scarlets I'd expect will be stronger than the semi (they didn't get out the blocks that day) but Glasgow were really really poor and looked totally flat in the first half in their semi, it's really hard to tell how good that Scarlets performance was.

Leo and Lancaster have done pretty much everything right this season and I think they'll be pulling out the stops to tactically mix it up a bit on Saturday.

I watched the Munster game back and yes they threw the kitchen sink at us but we were comfortably on top and playing within ourselves for most of that game. Our structures and defensive lines strong and our discipline good. Bar tackle of the season on Lowe in the first half we'd have pulled away quite comfortably in that one.....

Lowe I suspect will have another big game on Saturday and I'd expect Fardy and Leavy to really boost the pack.

I hope I don't eat my words but 11 points looks about right as a minimum....................

[riocard911]

One of the things that heartened me very much about the Munster match, was the performance of players, who copped flack over recent defeats in the Pro 14. Jack Conan, Jack McGrath, Andrew Porter, Ross Byrne, Rory O'Loughlin, James Tracy and Max Deegan all played excellently. Our famed strength in depth, which even I was beginning to doubt, is back, it would seem. As such I too would think we should be able to dominate in the pack, which hopefully will give us victory.

[Oldschool]

I think the tiredness thing has been exaggerated. The weather and the officials contributed to a dull performance against Racing and they were also very physical and well organised for the 80 minutes. The Munster game was ferocious from start to finish and thought we generally looked to be in good shape. I did say after the Munster game that Tadhg looked a bit tired and isn't having his usual impact (not that he was bad, and he's made an impact with the dirty work) and obviously Luke and Isa are carrying injuries, but by and large we're in good shape IMO.

Plus this week it looks like we'll have Leavy, Johnny, and Rob to start after missing last week, as well as Healy and Fardy to play from the start. They should give us a big boost.

Given the success of Leinster and a Leinster powered Ireland it is only a matter of time before teams figure us out and come up with a strategy to stop us.
Perhaps that's starting to happen.
Both Racing and Munster fronted up big time and effectively managed to stifle us.
It's likely we peaked for the Scarlet's ERC S/F and rightly so because our coaches probably realised that they were the next best team in the competition.
Saturdays game is going to be close because it's unlikely that we can peak again to the same level as the S/F and they are likely to be better prepared.
I'm worried for only the second time this season but this time it's not about our ability to handle the favourite's mantle,
it's because I don't think we should be favourites.

[mildlyinterested]

Cummiskey has Fardy on the bench.

1. Healy
2. Cronin
3. Furlong
4. Toner
5. Ryan
6. Ruddock
7. Leavy
8. Conan
9. McGrath
10. Sexton
11. Lowe
12. Nacewa
13. Ringrose
14. Larmour
15. Kearney
16. Tracy
17. McGrath
18. Porter
19. Fardy
20. Murphy
21. McCarthy
22. Carbery
23. ROL

[the spoofer]

Cummiskey has Fardy on the bench.

1. Healy
2. Cronin
3. Furlong
4. Toner
5. Ryan
6. Ruddock
7. Leavy
8. Conan
9. McGrath
10. Sexton
11. Lowe
12. Nacewa
13. Ringrose
14. Larmour
15. Kearney
16. Tracy
17. McGrath
18. Porter
19. Fardy
20. Murphy
21. McCarthy
22. Carbery
23. ROL

That’s mental. Our best forward along with Leavy

[Oldschool]

Cummiskey has Fardy on the bench.

1. Healy
2. Cronin
3. Furlong
4. Toner
5. Ryan
6. Ruddock
7. Leavy
8. Conan
9. McGrath
10. Sexton
11. Lowe
12. Nacewa
13. Ringrose
14. Larmour
15. Kearney
16. Tracy
17. McGrath
18. Porter
19. Fardy
20. Murphy
21. McCarthy
22. Carbery
23. ROL

LPG must be injured.