Pareto principle, innitbackrower8 wrote:The level of homegrown (Leinster) players in our squad of 65 has been held up in another post as an amazing fact unlikely to be repeated anywhere else in the world, and I agree. But are we building on sand?
It is an incredible stat backboned by an even more incredible and unsustainable one...that over 1 in 4 of those 65 players come from one medium sized school. Of the 17 St Michael's players contracted, 10 are senior squad & 7 in the academy. The same 1 in 4 stat is borne out in the team for the Munster game tomorrow, 4 starters, 6 in the 23.
But, much and all as I take pride in my alma mater's achievements, I think it is a systemic risk for Leinster to be sourcing so many from one school. They are outperforming in a way that can't last, producing over 3 times what the other big providers are currently producing (Clongowes (6 - all senior) & Blackrock (6 - 2 senior, 4 academy)). It is a time bomb.
The norm for other providers of multiple players is between 2 to 4 (Andrews, Belvo, Mary's, Gonzaga). Nure is an example of how a change in school priorities can radically alter output. In fact, Girvan Dempsey is the only pro player that I can remember making it from Terenure and I am not aware of any coming through the academy (but may have missed some).
So if Michael's go back to producing 4 for the squad at any one time, where will the other 13 of a similar standard come from?
Yes clubs are providing marquee players too, but the schools will continue to provide the significant majority of the squad. Only last year 35 players came from just 5 schools.
That is a lot of pressure on a narrow base that is outside the control of Leinster and Irish rugby. They do influnce their rugby programmes but they depend on Boards of Management and parents keeping faith with the professional approach and investment rugby demands in these schools. That can't be taken for granted indefinitely.
/Jordan Peterson
