Leinster v Ulster: AVIVA, Heino QF

[leinster23]

I thought Ross Byrne's performance against Toulouse was excellent. He made multiple carries, put in a strong defensive shift and created that memorable and all important game breaking try for Dave Kearney through,yet again, his super accurate boot.

I thought it was decent but if Sexton played the same game we'd just move on and wouldn't comment on it.

Whether or which, if I was to choose between the Ross Byrne, who played in the recent ERCC group game against Toulouse, and the Johnny Sexton, who played in the Pro 12 semi defeat to the Scarlets in the RDS the season before last, I know which I'd pick......

If we're going to give ourselves the luxury of going all the way back through their respective careers and cherry-picking their best/worst performances, the case for Byrne starting isn't going to last long. Can we have the Sexton from the second half against Northampton in 2011, or the Sexton who, more recently beat the All Blacks?

[riocard911]

To: leinster23

Touché!!!

[wise7]

Unfortunately for the quarter final we cannot just dial up the Sexton in his epic performance against Northampton 8 years ago or Sexton versus the All Blacks in November. We have to deal with the here and now as we are talking about who should be selected for a knockout game in 11 days time and based on the evidence of very recent form i.e. past 10/12 weeks. This should be a decision devoid of sentiment. Its not about loyalty or fairness it should be a decison based on what is likely to give us the optimal chance of a win. One player is clearly struggling to regain his undoubted World class brilliant form (shown yet again as recently as last November but unfortunately not repeated to any appreciable extent in his subsequent outings) and the other who is progressiveley getting better and better and has not let us down in the past two seasons when called upon to step in and step up. Its a clinical choice. Is this not the whole point of developing a squad that has real depth that management are prepared to place their trust in?

[hugonaut]

Unfortunately for the quarter final we cannot just dial up the Sexton in his epic performance against Northampton 8 years ago or Sexton versus the All Blacks in November. We have to deal with the here and now as we are talking about who should be selected for a knockout game in 11 days time and based on the evidence of very recent form i.e. past 10/12 weeks. This should be a decision devoid of sentiment. Its not about loyalty or fairness it should be a decison based on what is likely to give us the optimal chance of a win. One player is clearly struggling to regain his undoubted World class brilliant form (shown yet again as recently as last November but unfortunately not repeated to any appreciable extent in his subsequent outings) and the other who is progressiveley getting better and better and has not let us down in the past two seasons when called upon to step in and step up. Its a clinical choice. Is this not the whole point of developing a squad that has real depth that management are prepared to place their trust in?

It's a very fair point, and a tricky situation for the coaches. Jonny's downturn in form is a real issue ... but he has enormous credit in the bank, is the team captain and has very rarely struggled with his form at Leinster. There's also the fact that he recently had the most successful season in the history of any Irish player in the history of the game: his stock has dipped over the last couple of months, but it's dipping from a phenomenal high.

The big difference between now and the SF against Scarlets in 2016-17 is that Ross Byrne has an awful lot more experience under his belt. He had a good debut season in 16-17 [playing in a number of European games], but it was his debut season. When Sexton didn't perform well in the SF that season, the coaches didn't have the belief that Byrne could turn it around ... rightly or wrongly.

Since then, he conclusively won a significant contest at Leinster with Joey Carbery in terms of the coaches' call - he started 19 games at No10 last season compared to Carbery's one – and has had a strong season to date. I think the coaching team are now waaay more confident in him than they were this time two years ago.

So my solution would be pragmatic: start Sexton, but if he performs poorly, bring on Byrne with enough time [25 mins +] for him to make an improvement. I think a tougher call is who we go with at No12, Conor O'Brien or Noel Reid. *EDIT* Or Locko?

[bluemagic]

Unfortunately for the quarter final we cannot just dial up the Sexton in his epic performance against Northampton 8 years ago or Sexton versus the All Blacks in November. We have to deal with the here and now as we are talking about who should be selected for a knockout game in 11 days time and based on the evidence of very recent form i.e. past 10/12 weeks. This should be a decision devoid of sentiment. Its not about loyalty or fairness it should be a decison based on what is likely to give us the optimal chance of a win. One player is clearly struggling to regain his undoubted World class brilliant form (shown yet again as recently as last November but unfortunately not repeated to any appreciable extent in his subsequent outings) and the other who is progressiveley getting better and better and has not let us down in the past two seasons when called upon to step in and step up. Its a clinical choice. Is this not the whole point of developing a squad that has real depth that management are prepared to place their trust in?

It's a very fair point, and a tricky situation for the coaches. Jonny's downturn in form is a real issue ... but he has enormous credit in the bank, is the team captain and has very rarely struggled with his form at Leinster. There's also the fact that he recently had the most successful season in the history of any Irish player in the history of the game: his stock has dipped over the last couple of months, but it's dipping from a phenomenal high.

The big difference between now and the SF against Scarlets in 2016-17 is that Ross Byrne has an awful lot more experience under his belt. He had a good debut season in 16-17 [playing in a number of European games], but it was his debut season. When Sexton didn't perform well in the SF that season, the coaches didn't have the belief that Byrne could turn it around ... rightly or wrongly.

Since then, he conclusively won a significant contest at Leinster with Joey Carbery in terms of the coaches' call - he started 19 games at No10 last season compared to Carbery's one – and has had a strong season to date. I think the coaching team are now waaay more confident in him than they were this time two years ago.

So my solution would be pragmatic: start Sexton, but if he performs poorly, bring on Byrne with enough time [25 mins +] for him to make an improvement. I think a tougher call is who we go with at No12, Conor O'Brien or Noel Reid. *EDIT* Or Locko?

The answer to the final question is neither. Assuming Henshaw isn’t fit it should be ROL or Tomane

[ronk]

Ireland werent playing better than Wales but falling apart with misfiring halfbacks. The halfbacks just were affected by the same issues as the rest of the team.

We should assume there will be no issues against Ulster.

[wixfjord]

Sounds like Henshaw isn't going to make it for Ulster.

It'll be interesting to see if COB has done enough over the last two months or so to be thrown a jersey.

I think I'd still start ROL at 12 I think.

We haven't fared *too* badly with 6N injuries I think. Only VDF sounds like a potential long term one. Toner & Henshaw sound like they should be back in a few weeks.

Healy, Cronin, Furlong, Fardy, Ryan, Rhys, Leavy, Conan, McGrath, Sexton, Larmour, ROL, Ringrose, Byrne, RK
McGrath, Tracy/Byrne, Porter, Molony, SOB, JGP, Byrne, Daly/DK/Ferg/Tomane

Still a very solid side.

I'd be interested in seeing Byrne against Stockdale in particular.

[leinster23]

But the point is that Sexton wasn't selected to play the Toulouse game and therefore didn't play. The topic being discussed is whether Sexton or Byrne should be selected against Ulster and based on form the more in-form player should be given the start in the interest of the team getting the result needed.

The point is that while Byrne's performance against Toulouse was certainty impressive, if Sexton played the same game it would be unremarkable. He definitely should start against Ulster. That said, if he's as poor as he was against Wales then we shouldn't hesitate to bring Byrne on.

[wixfjord]

Byrne is playing well, but there's no chance we're dropping our captain and current WPOTY for a Euro QF.

I'm not sure wise7 is the most unbiased of commenters on this particular topic!

[riocard911]

If Henshaw can't make it, I'd have Locko or CO'B at 12. Tomane hasn't done enough for me during his time at Leinster to deserve a start in an ERCC quarter-final.

[ronk]

If Henshaw can't make it, I'd have Locko or CO'B at 12. Tomane hasn't done enough for me during his time at Leinster to deserve a start in an ERCC quarter-final.

If Tomane is fit against Edinburgh and has trimmed then I'd look at putting him on the wing. He can go opposite Lowe or alternate with him.

[leinster23]

O'Loughlin was very good against Toulouse and Bath, he'd definitely be my preferred option at 12 with Henshaw out. I'd have O'Brien in the 23 shirt, unless Tomane comes in on Friday and plays well.

[leinster23]

Has Larmour played on the left much? That said he's generally adapted to other positions well, he's gone from centre to fullback to winger without much fuss, can't see it being a massive issue. I hope Byrne starts, he deserves it based on his form this year. If he handles Stockdale well he's got to be in with a shot for Ireland.

[Flash Gordon]

Unfortunately for the quarter final we cannot just dial up the Sexton in his epic performance against Northampton 8 years ago or Sexton versus the All Blacks in November. We have to deal with the here and now as we are talking about who should be selected for a knockout game in 11 days time and based on the evidence of very recent form i.e. past 10/12 weeks. This should be a decision devoid of sentiment. Its not about loyalty or fairness it should be a decison based on what is likely to give us the optimal chance of a win. One player is clearly struggling to regain his undoubted World class brilliant form (shown yet again as recently as last November but unfortunately not repeated to any appreciable extent in his subsequent outings) and the other who is progressiveley getting better and better and has not let us down in the past two seasons when called upon to step in and step up. Its a clinical choice. Is this not the whole point of developing a squad that has real depth that management are prepared to place their trust in?

It's a very fair point, and a tricky situation for the coaches. Jonny's downturn in form is a real issue ... but he has enormous credit in the bank, is the team captain and has very rarely struggled with his form at Leinster. There's also the fact that he recently had the most successful season in the history of any Irish player in the history of the game: his stock has dipped over the last couple of months, but it's dipping from a phenomenal high.

The big difference between now and the SF against Scarlets in 2016-17 is that Ross Byrne has an awful lot more experience under his belt. He had a good debut season in 16-17 [playing in a number of European games], but it was his debut season. When Sexton didn't perform well in the SF that season, the coaches didn't have the belief that Byrne could turn it around ... rightly or wrongly.

Since then, he conclusively won a significant contest at Leinster with Joey Carbery in terms of the coaches' call - he started 19 games at No10 last season compared to Carbery's one – and has had a strong season to date. I think the coaching team are now waaay more confident in him than they were this time two years ago.

So my solution would be pragmatic: start Sexton, but if he performs poorly, bring on Byrne with enough time [25 mins +] for him to make an improvement. I think a tougher call is who we go with at No12, Conor O'Brien or Noel Reid. *EDIT* Or Locko?

Think that was more the coaches believing that Carbery was a fullback. Personally I think Byrne is a good Pro 14 player but that's it, even a half firing Sexton is ahead of him in my view. Joe Schmidt clearly doesn't rate Byrne as a contendor for the Ireland spot currently and I think he's probably right, he still doesn't distribute the ball close enough to the gain line leading to a lack of space and clutter in the 12/13 channel. On the plus side his kicking has improve from both the tee and hand.

[wixfjord]

Think that was more the coaches believing that Carbery was a fullback. Personally I think Byrne is a good Pro 14 player but that's it, even a half firing Sexton is ahead of him in my view. Joe Schmidt clearly doesn't rate Byrne as a contendor for the Ireland spot currently and I think he's probably right, he still doesn't distribute the ball close enough to the gain line leading to a lack of space and clutter in the 12/13 channel. On the plus side his kicking has improve from both the tee and hand.

I think that's unfair on Byrne. His attacking game has come on in leaps and bounds this year, particularly his running game. He has led us through quite a few big Euro games at this stage too.
Who Joe Schmidt rates and who Leo/Lancaster rates are two different things, and I think we were all surprised at how unlucky Byrne was to not make the squad during the 6N.

[riocard911]

Think that was more the coaches believing that Carbery was a fullback. Personally I think Byrne is a good Pro 14 player but that's it, even a half firing Sexton is ahead of him in my view. Joe Schmidt clearly doesn't rate Byrne as a contendor for the Ireland spot currently and I think he's probably right, he still doesn't distribute the ball close enough to the gain line leading to a lack of space and clutter in the 12/13 channel. On the plus side his kicking has improve from both the tee and hand.

I think that's unfair on Byrne. His attacking game has come on in leaps and bounds this year, particularly his running game. He has led us through quite a few big Euro games at this stage too.
Who Joe Schmidt rates and who Leo/Lancaster rates are two different things, and I think we were all surprised at how unlucky Byrne was to not make the squad during the 6N.

I agree. Since the Pro 14 semi vs Munster Byrne's passing and defence have both improved. He's no longer a ROG clone but now plays a full court number 10 game, choosing and implementing the different options depending on the situation. I for one have been much impressed with his progress. It seems to me, that he's profitting immensely from the addition of Felipe to our coaching ticket.

[Flash Gordon]

Think that was more the coaches believing that Carbery was a fullback. Personally I think Byrne is a good Pro 14 player but that's it, even a half firing Sexton is ahead of him in my view. Joe Schmidt clearly doesn't rate Byrne as a contendor for the Ireland spot currently and I think he's probably right, he still doesn't distribute the ball close enough to the gain line leading to a lack of space and clutter in the 12/13 channel. On the plus side his kicking has improve from both the tee and hand.

I think that's unfair on Byrne. His attacking game has come on in leaps and bounds this year, particularly his running game. He has led us through quite a few big Euro games at this stage too.
Who Joe Schmidt rates and who Leo/Lancaster rates are two different things, and I think we were all surprised at how unlucky Byrne was to not make the squad during the 6N.

The difference is that Joe has options - albeit more limited with Jackson and Madigan no longer available. Personally I think Byrne is very much work in progress and not close to international class currently. With Sexton off form currently and Joey having moved on, the Leinster out half situation hasn't been this poor in years. Similarly for Ireland Jackson and Madigan no longer available and Carbery pretty injury prone, Ireland's depth isn't great.

[riocard911]

Timely boost for J10 from Lancaster:

“But what I have to do now is get them back into Leinster mode and get Johnny (Sexton) playing well for Leinster because he is such a key player for us. I’m confident he can do that and we can do that.”

https://www.irishtimes.com/sport/rugby/ ... -1.3830547

[wixfjord]

Think that was more the coaches believing that Carbery was a fullback. Personally I think Byrne is a good Pro 14 player but that's it, even a half firing Sexton is ahead of him in my view. Joe Schmidt clearly doesn't rate Byrne as a contendor for the Ireland spot currently and I think he's probably right, he still doesn't distribute the ball close enough to the gain line leading to a lack of space and clutter in the 12/13 channel. On the plus side his kicking has improve from both the tee and hand.

I think that's unfair on Byrne. His attacking game has come on in leaps and bounds this year, particularly his running game. He has led us through quite a few big Euro games at this stage too.
Who Joe Schmidt rates and who Leo/Lancaster rates are two different things, and I think we were all surprised at how unlucky Byrne was to not make the squad during the 6N.

The difference is that Joe has options - albeit more limited with Jackson and Madigan no longer available. Personally I think Byrne is very much work in progress and not close to international class currently. With Sexton off form currently and Joey having moved on, the Leinster out half situation hasn't been this poor in years. Similarly for Ireland Jackson and Madigan no longer available and Carbery pretty injury prone, Ireland's depth isn't great.

How do you define international class? He has objectively performed at a higher level than Carty, who got a good bit of gametime in the 6N. He performed well in the Autumn when coming in early for Ireland too.
While I don't think he'll usurp Johnny, I think you're massively underrating a guy who has done really well this year and has led us through some really big games in Sexton's absence - Wasps away, Toulouse home, Munster in the Aviva (where he comfortably outplayed Joey), Munster in the semi last year, Montpellier away last year, Exeter in the Aviva etc etc. For a 'good Pro14 player' that's not a bad track record is it?

[wixfjord]

Addison & Gilroy very doubtful.
'Hopeful' on Henderson.

https://www.the42.ie/ulster-injury-upda ... =shortlink

Their backline looking like it could be
Cooney, Burns, Stockdale, McCloskey, Cave, Balcounne, Ludik