The Quickening 2019

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The Quickening 2019

Postby johng » January 23rd, 2019, 2:13 pm

The 9th Season of the countdown to the end of the ProN

I wasn't going to bother as we are so far ahead. But there ARE other teams in the universe that could join us in the playoffs.

This season I have decided on the participants based on current standings.

To keep things manageable I have omitted Cardiff and Cheetahs in conf A. They may come back into the reckoning I can add them later if needed

4 teams from Conf A and 4 Teams from Conf B (Plus us) who are in with a shout of top 3

The 4 Conf A teams are within 7 points of eachother

The 4 Conf B teams are all within 2 points of each other.

Soooo.

Conf A head to heads.

Friday 25th January....Glasgow....Ospreys....19:35
Friday 22nd February....Glasgow..v..Connacht....19:35
Friday 22nd February....Ospreys..v..Munster....19:35
Saturday 2nd March....Connacht ..v..Ospreys....14:45
Saturday 27th April....Munster..v..Connacht....19:35

Conf B head to heads

Friday 25th January....Leinster..v..Scarlets....19:35
Friday 25th January....Ulster..v..Benetton....19:35
Saturday 16th February....Benetton..v..Scarlets....17:15
Saturday 2nd March....Benetton..v..Edinburgh....15:00
Friday 22rd March....Edinburgh..v..Leinster....19:35
Saturday 6th April....Scarlets..v..Edinburgh....18:45
Saturday 6th April....Leinster..v..Benetton....19:45
Friday 12th April....Edinburgh..v..Ulster....19:35
Saturday 27th April....Ulster..v..Leinster....17:15

Conf A v B

Friday 15th February....Ospreys..v..Ulster....19:35
Friday 22rd March....Connacht..v..Benetton....19:35
Friday 5th April....Glasgow..v..Ulster....19:35
Saturday 27th April....Glasgow..v..Edinburgh....19:35

Conf B v A

Saturday 2nd March..Scarlets..v..Munster....17:00
Friday 12th April....Benetton..v..Munster....18:00
Saturday 13th April....Leinster..v..Glasgow....15:00

More to follow
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Re: The Quickening 2019

Postby curates_egg » January 23rd, 2019, 7:08 pm

Great stuff. Thanks.
Cockerill is doing some job to have Edinburgh competitive on both fronts.
Did anyone think the Safa teams would get even worse?
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Re: The Quickening 2019

Postby D4surfer » January 23rd, 2019, 11:09 pm

curates_egg wrote:Great stuff. Thanks.
Cockerill is doing some job to have Edinburgh competitive on both fronts.
Did anyone think the Safa teams would get even worse?


I think the Cheetahs could have a strong end to the season and be in the mix for the knock out stages. The Kings are just rubbish.
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Re: The Quickening 2019

Postby Peg Leg » January 24th, 2019, 9:16 am

curates_egg wrote:Did anyone think the Safa teams would get even worse?


When finalised squads were being announced before the start of the season, yeah, how could you not? A lot of talent (lots a squad padding too) gone from their squads.
Cheetas lost or cut: 24
King: 22
No security for those players after being f%~ked around, dropped out of super rugby and foisted into the P12 at the 11th hour as a bit of a gamble. I'd say every "away" dressing room they visited was left in a jocker, CV's everywhere.
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Re: The Quickening 2019

Postby Oldschool » January 24th, 2019, 11:53 am

If any of the teams currently in a HEC qualifying spot get another 20 points they should maintain that position.
Ulster therefore have to do a bit more to make it.
Is it possible that they could select a slightly weakened team for the HEC QF in order to achieve qualification for next season.
In conference A, Ospreys look to be the team most at risk of losing out although Connacht will be under pressure because of 6Ns call ups. Friend's rotation gambles may well be about to pay off.
As always Johng excellent stuff.
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Re: The Quickening 2019

Postby johng » January 24th, 2019, 2:34 pm

PaddyOR's Excellent info from the 2018 thread.

Conferece A
Round 14 & 15

Game h/a (G) Points(P) Total(P) Max Available(M)
Team Pts    G      P   T    M      G      P   T    M      
Mun 44 Dra A 5 49 84 Kin H 5 54 84
Gla 42 Osp H 5 47 82 Car A 4 51 81
Osp 37 Gla A 0 37 72 Uls H 1 38 68
Con 37 Car A 4 41 76 Che H 5 46 76
Car 32 Con H 1 33 67 Gla H 1 34 63

Round 16 & 17
Team Pts    G      P   T    M      G      P   T    M 
Mun 54 Osp A 4 58 83 Sca A 1 59 79
Gla 51 Con H 4 55 80 Zeb A 5 60 80
Con 46 Gla A 1 47 72 Osp H 5 52 72
Osp 38 Mun H 1 39 64 Con A 0 39 59
Car 34 Edi A 1 35 60 Kin H 5 40 60

Round 18 & 19
Team Pts    G      P   T    M      G      P   T    M 
Gla 60 Che H 5 65 80 Uls H 4 69 79
Mun 59 Zeb H 5 64 79 Car H 5 69 79
Con 52 Tre H 5 57 72 Zeb A 5 62 72
Car 40 Sca H 1 41 56 Mun A 0 41 51
Osp 39 Dra H 5 44 59 Che A 5 49 59

Round 20 & 21
Team Pts    G      P   T    M      G      P   T
Mun 69 Tre A 5 74 79 Con H 4 78
Gla 69 Lei A 0 69 74 Edi H 1 70
Con 62 Car H 4 66 71 Mun A 1 67
Osp 49 Kin A 5 54 59 Car A 4 58
Car 41 Con A 1 42 56 Osp H 1 43


Team W  D L TB LB PTS
Mun 16 0 5 12 2 78
Gla 14 0 7 11 3 70
Con 13 0 8 8 7 67
Osp 12 0 9 6 4 58
Car 7 0 14 5 10 43


Munster will lose some players to during the 6N but should keep most of their pack and have able back ups at 9 and 10 provided no one gets injured. Their squad is much stronger than any of the conference rivals and they've an easier run than Glasgow who are probably their only real rivals for the home SF.

Glasgow have been a bit of mixed bag. Threw away points vs Treviso chasing a BP and also against Munster. Will lose way more of their squad to Scotland and the main concern for the 6N is the halves. Possibly giving them more credit than they're due as they were terrible this time last year. The conf games during the 6N vs Ospreys, Cardiff and Connacht will determine their season. They could well be coming to the RDS looking for a result or needing one in the 1872 game.

5 from 6 LBPs show just how competitive Connacht have been even in defeat. 3rd choice OH was usually allowed go back to their province during the 6Ns so they should have Carty at least. Should also get back a lot of the players in the Ireland squad and the way the fictures line up there's scope to rotate. There's a definite 13-15 pts for them from the Italians and Cheetahs but what's really important is they beat the 2 Welsh rivals. Massive game on Saturday, win that and they've a 9-10 point lead over Cardiff.

Ospreys have probably the most difficult 6N of any of the sides. Shorn of it's Wales players it's just a good team. The good news is it eases up after the 6N and they should bank 3 if not 4 wins. Anything less than 2 wins during the 6 nations will see them out of the running. The game against Connacht looks make or break.

The season could have been so different for Cardiff had they not had such a terrible start. 4 points from what should have 13 see's them 5th and 5pts back instead of 3rd with a gap back to the other 2. They've had 2 thumping wins vs Munster and Scarlets but that's it really. The rest of their points have come from easier opponents as their schedule for the run in indicates. I've maybe been a bit harsh in writing them off. They won't lose as many players to Wales but I think the ones they are losing or have lost to injury are really key for them. If they want to break 60pts they need to win 6 games and get a few BPs along the way and I just can't see it with that Schedule.
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Re: The Quickening 2019

Postby johng » January 24th, 2019, 2:36 pm

PaddyOR Conf B predictions

Round 14 & 15

Game h/a (G) Points(P) Total(P) Max Available(M)
Team Pts    G      P   T    M      G      P   T    M      
Lei 54 Sca H 4 58 93 Zeb A 5 63 93
Edi 35 Kin H 5 40 75 Dra A 5 45 75
Tre 35 Uls H 0 35 70 Sca H 1 36 66
Sca 34 Lei H 0 34 70 Tre A 4 40 70
Uls 33 Tre H 5 38 73 Osp A 4 42 72

Round 16 & 17
Team Pts    G      P   T    M      G      P   T    M 
Lei 63 Kin H 5 68 93 Che H 5 73 93
Edi 45 Car H 4 49 74 Tre A 4 53 73
Uls 42 Zeb H 5 47 72 Dra A 5 52 72
Sca 40 Che H 5 45 70 Mun H 4 49 69
Tre 36 Dra H 5 41 66 Edi H 1 42 62

Round 18 & 19
Team Pts     G      P   T    M      G      P   T    M          
Lei 73 Edi A 1 74 89 Tre H 5 79 89
Edi 53 Lei H 4 57 72 Sca A 1 58 68
Uls 52 Kin H 5 54 69 Gla A 1 55 65
Sca 49 Car A 4 53 68 Edi H 4 57 67
Tre 42 Con A 0 42 57 Lei A 1 43 53

Round 20 & 21
Team Pts    G      P   T    M      G      P   T
Lei 79 Gla H 4 83 88 Uls A 1 84
Sca 57 Zeb H 5 59 64 Dra A 4 66
Edi 58 Uls H 4 62 67 Gla A 4 66
Uls 55 Edi A 1 56 61 Lei H 4 60
Tre 53 Mun H 1 44 49 Zeb A 4 48


21 points from a possible 40 will win the league. Also if we come out of the next 4 games with a 20 pont lead over Edinburgh it's done. It'll go to games won then points diff which is currently +247 and you'd expect that to grow with the Kings and cheetahs at home coming up.

Scarlets have probably the easiest run in with the game vs Edinburgh being the only really difficult game I see. That's shaping up to be the home qf decider. I think Scarlets will shade them on points difference because they'll have the same no. of wins Cardiff caused them problems but they should have a full compliment back and theirs a few back from injury as well IIRC.

Edinburgh have an easy 6N but a difficult run in but that will suit them as they're squad is weaker when it can be and stronger when it really needs it. I think Cockerill will throw his strongest team on the field for the Leinster game in advance of the HCC QF vs Munster. We could be going there looking to win the league. If the past 6 weeks are anything to go by he'll flog his front liners right to the end of the season.

If Ulster want to get into the reckoning they have win a minimum 7 of their remaining 8 games with a haul of BPs. They should be set up nicely coming into the last 3 games with only the Os away being a really difficult game. They've traditionally struggled to put away Treviso but usually get the result. They'll be praying Coatzees hamstring problem is minor.

Kind of written off Treviso which might seem unfair but I don't see them winning 6 of their last 8 games. They're destiny is still in their own hands as they get a shot at each of the conference rivals but the odd upset aside I can't see them getting the better of all 4.
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Re: The Quickening 2019

Postby D4surfer » January 26th, 2019, 6:09 pm

Poor weekend for our conference competitors. Edinburgh just lost to the Kings in SA.

Ulster and Benneton with 2 points each and 1 point each for Scarlets and Edinburgh.
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Re: The Quickening 2019

Postby paddyor » January 26th, 2019, 8:12 pm

State of play
3 from 6 :oops:

No TBPs and everyone picked up points.

Round 14 & 15

Conference A
Game h/a (G) Points(P) Total(P) Max Available(M)
Team Pts    G      P   T    M      G      P   T    M      
Mun 44 Dra A 4 48 84 Kin H 5 53 83
Gla 42 Osp H 4 46 81 Car A 4 50 80
Osp 37 Gla A 1 38 73 Uls H 1 39 69
Con 37 Car A 1 38 73 Che H 5 43 73
Car 32 Con H 4 36 71 Gla H 1 37 67


Conference B
Team Pts    G      P   T    M      G      P   T    M      
Lei 54 Sca H 4 58 93 Zeb A 5 63 93
Tre 35 Uls H 2 37 72 Sca H 1 38 68
Edi 35 Kin H 1 36 71 Dra A 5 41 71
Sca 34 Lei H 1 35 70 Tre A 4 39 69
Uls 33 Tre H 2 35 70 Osp A 4 39 69
Ruddock's tackle stats consistently too low for me to be taken seriously as a Six Nations blindside..... Ruddock's defensive stats don't stack up. - All Blacks Nil, Jan 15th, 2014
England A 8 - 14 Ireland A, 25th Jan 2014
Ruddock(c) 19/2 Tackles
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Re: The Quickening 2019

Postby johng » January 26th, 2019, 9:24 pm

Don't feel bad. A draw is rare in Rugby. Puts Treviso in 2nd place 21 points behind us. You have to think that is unassailable with cheetahs and kings at home to follow Zebre away.

Munster scraped past dragons and Connacht went down by the same margin in Cardiff.

Still 2 points covering 2nd to 5th in our conference. Munster and Glasgow pull away slightly and Cardiff catch up a little on Connacht and Ospreys
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Re: The Quickening 2019

Postby blockhead » January 27th, 2019, 1:42 am

Conf A:
Glasgow and Munster neck and neck for a home semi. Already played each other twice.
If we assume Cheetahs BP at home v Kings in their game in hand then there will be 2 points between Ospreys,Connacht, Cardiff and Cheetahs for that last playoff spot. And, the Euro 3 will be fighting for 1 place in next seasons Heino. One willl succeed and one will face a playoff to qualify.
Conf B:
Leinster are home and dry for a home semi barring a series of very unlikely events.
However, the fight for 2nd and 3rd is white hot. Benetton, Ulster, Scarlets and Edinburgh are seperated by 2 points.That's last years semi-finalists and the teams ranked 4th and 6th in Europe. Throw in an uppity Italian side and its all to play for. One of these teams is going to be really dissappointed at the end of this season.

Predictions:
1. Leinster home semi v Glasgow or Munster
2. Media will cite Leinster's huge conf lead as evidence that the Pro14 is Chyte, ignoring that last season conf B's top 3 were seperated by 2 points and Leinster finished ahead of Scarlets on points diff.
3. Connacht to finish 3rd in conf A but lose an away QF.
4. Peg Leg to say something really funny.
5. Tom the Fan to blame the ref.
6. DC to get his kit off on Bluestalk.
7. SOKs and DonnyB to make a much needed return.
8. Stringer gets eliminated in the DWTS semi, media blames media bias as the only possible explanation.
9. Virgin media stop playing ROG 2018 6Nations thoughts.
10. Ireland win Brexit.
11. Rory dosen't win a major.
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Re: The Quickening 2019

Postby riocard911 » January 27th, 2019, 3:24 am

blockhead wrote:Conf A:
Glasgow and Munster neck and neck for a home semi. Already played each other twice.
If we assume Cheetahs BP at home v Kings in their game in hand then there will be 2 points between Ospreys,Connacht, Cardiff and Cheetahs for that last playoff spot. And, the Euro 3 will be fighting for 1 place in next seasons Heino. One willl succeed and one will face a playoff to qualify.
Conf B:
Leinster are home and dry for a home semi barring a series of very unlikely events.
However, the fight for 2nd and 3rd is white hot. Benetton, Ulster, Scarlets and Edinburgh are seperated by 2 points.That's last years semi-finalists and the teams ranked 4th and 6th in Europe. Throw in an uppity Italian side and its all to play for. One of these teams is going to be really dissappointed at the end of this season.

Predictions:
1. Leinster home semi v Glasgow or Munster
2. Media will cite Leinster's huge conf lead as evidence that the Pro14 is Chyte, ignoring that last season conf B's top 3 were seperated by 2 points and Leinster finished ahead of Scarlets on points diff.
3. Connacht to finish 3rd in conf A but lose an away QF.
4. Peg Leg to say something really funny.
5. Tom the Fan to blame the ref.
6. DC to get his kit off on Bluestalk.
7. SOKs and DonnyB to make a much needed return.
8. Stringer gets eliminated in the DWTS semi, media blames media bias as the only possible explanation.
9. Virgin media stop playing ROG 2018 6Nations thoughts.
10. Ireland win Brexit.
11. Rory dosen't win a major.


Number 6 won't make a blind bit of difference, if that week's episode only goes out on Soundcloud!!!!!!
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