The 2020 Quickening

[Serb]

I think you’re downplaying Munster there. They’ll win their conference, but it’ll be tight.

They have six matches in a row that they should win, I’d expect they’ll get at least 25 points there. They face us in the Aviva, they usually up their game there — I’d expect they’ll get a losing bonus point.

After that, I think they could conceivably win the remaining four, putting them on roughly 68 points. That’ll be enough for top two, possibly first place.

Connacht are in far more trouble, I don’t really see them getting over 50 points, they’ll probably stay 4th.

Leinster, then Ulster will top conference A.

[Cianostays]

15 pts clear with 9 games to go. Probably 5 wins of any type will be enough to lock down a home SF.

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[paddyor]

2 wins in SA could see us playing to win the conference vs Munster in the aviva depending on how Ulster fare against
Dragons H
Glasgow A
Dragons A
Edinburgh H

We have
Cheetahs A
Kings A
Zebre H
Munster H

I think it's probable at this stage that the Italian games will be dropped and the points split 2-2. In that case Ulster and Cheetahs would drop 6 possible points, we'd drop 3 and Glasgow drop none and Cheetahs drop 6.

Team Pts Max
Lei  61  98
Uls  41  80
Gla  34  74
Che  32  66

So if Ulster don't take max points from the next 4 it opens the door to us finishing the conference vs Munster in April. We'd have enough wins taht Ulster couldn't catch us either making points difference irrelevant. THat might not be official until later in the season but if the fixtures back log builds up they'll have to do something.

[joooooe]

Picture it.

Scarlets tonk Dragons on Saturday afternoon and move temporarily into 2nd place in Conference B.

On Sunday, "Munster" are 2 points up against Connacht with the clock in the red and Connacht have possession in their own 22. Bundee takes it on a short crash and the carnage caused at the ensuing ruck sees Connacht awarded a penalty on their 22, which they convert into a line out at half way. Munster pull down the maul and Carty has a 45m penalty to win it with a strong wind behind him. It bounces off both posts and the crossbar and pops over.

Scarlets top the pool by dint of having won one game more.

Bet they'd regret not having a go last Saturday from the same position against a Leinster team out on their feet.

I'm still baffled by that decision.

[OTT]

So we have the game against Ulster tomorrow then anything from two to four knock out games over the following four weekends.

1). Sat 29/08 - Ulster
2). Fri/Sat 04-05/09 - Pro14 Semi
3). Sat 12/09 - Pro14 Final ?
4). Sat 19/09 - Saracens
5.) Sat 26/09 - Euro Semi ?



So it would seem that tomorrow will be used to get the majority of another 23 some much needed game time (or maybe I will be completely wrong on that). How do we handle the following weekends?

I have been thinking about it for a while (nothing else to do for 6 months!) and I really feel that we should go with our European 23 (as much as is possible obviously) in the semi of the Pro 14 next weekend to get some continuity. If we lose then we have a rest week and we go again for Saracens, however if we win the Pro 14 semi I think we should change the starting 15 for the final the following week.

I think this for two reasons (1). obviously Europe is the Everest of our season so we want to peek there, over the years in normal scheduled seasons we have seen that the drain of knockout games (after a win or defeat) can effect the following performances. So why would we risk being to good in a Pro 14 final that we cannot replicate our following performance or losing the game and being on a downer while trying to get back up to speed with the same group of players. (2). If we do get to the Pro 14 Final why should the lads who majorly contributed to us getting there not get a shot, I personally would not have any fear over starting our regular Pro 14 team- if we win, it would make the success a bit sweeter and if we lose it would still be a bloody brilliant season for those players who won all the games around Wales, Ireland, Scotland and Italy throughout the regular season and the group could grow from the experience.

Obviously there is two 80 minutes to be played before this type of scenario would come into play or not as the case may be, so the state of the squad might look different just wondering how others think we should approach selection?

Potential Pro 14 Semi/Euro Quarter 23

15. Rob
14. Jordan
13. Ringrose
12. Henshaw
11. Lowe
10. Johnny
9. Luke
8. Conan/Doris/Deegan
7. Josh
6. Rhys
5. Ryan
4. Dev
3. Furlong
2. Kelleher
1. Healy

16. Nugget
17. Dooley
18. Furlong
19. Fardy
20. Conan/Doris/Deegan
21. RPG
22. Ross
23. ROL

Dependent on making the Pro 14 Final 23

15. Keenan
14. ROL/TOB
13. JOB
12. ROL/TOB/Frawley
11. Kelleher
10. Ross
9. RPG
8. Conan/Doris/Deegan
7. Porridge
6. Josh Murphy
5. Fardy
4. Molony
3. Benty
2. Tracy
1. Dooley

16. Nugget
17. Ed Byrne
18. Porter
19. Baird
20. Penny
21. Luke
22. Harry
23. Frawley