The looking forward to the Lions Tour thread

[Dave Cahill]

Stander on paper makes double figure tackles and at least 15-20 carries a match. It is hard on a guy like that to get left out when it is clearly evident the work he is putting in.

The problem for Stander is that he has been hoist on his own petard to a certain extent by being played at number 8 - he's a world class 6, but as an 8 he can be found wanting at the higher levels.

I'd actually have started him at 6 for the first test, but I can see what Gatland is trying to do with his flankers.

[LeinsterLeader]

To be honest I was all behind this "POM for Captain" thing. I thought, "Why not, he could do a good job?"

And then all this stuff started in the media.......

"'He has that Paul O'Connell DNA in him, being a Munster man'"

And I thought....

[LeRouxIsPHat]

That's not POM's fault though, he's a great guy and deserves all the support he gets.

Thought Stander was much better on Tuesday, so good that I reckon he'd have benched if it wasn't for Warburton being captain, but not starting him was a big enough call already.

Whatever about the individual merits of AWJ and Itoje, I don't see why they've broken up the Kruis and Itoje partnership. To me that was a really strong unit that impressed in their outings together so don't know why Gatland would mess with it. Henderson has been so good in his last couple of appearances that I'd have thought he would have been perfect as the impact sub behind the Saracens boys. It seems to be the one position that Gatland has gone for experience over form. Lawes unlucky too but obviously he's picked up some knocks and is probably better as a starter.

[maps]

It's a strange situation and potentially a difficult one for Schmidt coming up next year

Realistically, POM is not even in the top 5 or 6 backrowers in Ireland, but imagine the outcry when the Lion's captain isn't selected for a 6Nations squad

[TerenureJim]

Personally when it comes to the back three I think if Earls had of gotten a late call up he'd be starting on Saturday, the lad has been on fire of late and I think he'd have tore it up on tour. Rate him higher than Daly and Williams.

Also green tinted lenses here but I'd have started Sexton and had Farrell on the bench as Sexton runs a team better and Farrell on bench is a great 12 option to change it up or cover if Sexton gets knocked because he's likely to get special attention

[CiaranIrl]

It's a strange situation and potentially a difficult one for Schmidt coming up next year

Realistically, POM is not even in the top 5 or 6 backrowers in Ireland, but imagine the outcry when the Lion's captain isn't selected for a 6Nations squad

I'm as big a fan of Leinster's back row options as anyone, but this is just daft. Who is ahead of him in your 5 or 6 so?

[hugonaut]

Stander on paper makes double figure tackles and at least 15-20 carries a match. It is hard on a guy like that to get left out when it is clearly evident the work he is putting in.

The problem for Stander is that he has been hoist on his own petard to a certain extent by being played at number 8 - he's a world class 6, but as an 8 he can be found wanting at the higher levels.

I'd actually have started him at 6 for the first test, but I can see what Gatland is trying to do with his flankers.

As would I – really like Stander in general and thought he would have made it into the 23 if Warburton wasn't squad captain. Warburton's not at his best at the moment and is quite fortunate to get in; it's very difficult to make an argument for him to get in ahead of Stander on their form on the tour thus far. Stander has been better at the breakdown, made more tackles, got on the ball an awful lot more, obviously made a lot more carrying meters and made bigger plays. Tipuric's tour is turning out very similar to his 2013 Lions tour – quite fringey. Neither he nor Haskell were realistically in the frame for this test.

O'Mahony has a huge advantage over Stander in the lineout , and I think using him on the defensive side of that set piece is something that the Lions have deliberately not shown in his games to date. I expect him to be at two and up in the air on practically every lineout in the first half, to really try and get into the head of the ABs hooker and put pressure on their lineout and prevent them having a solid supply of first phase ball.

I'm not O'Mahony's biggest fan, but he's obviously somebody that people respond to and that his peers respect. He's got very good elements to his game – notably his defensive lineout work – but I think his worth is more in his captaincy than in his play. Just one man's opinion.

I'd second LRIP's query about breaking up the Saracens partnership in the second row. A big part of the reason why the set pieces functioned so well against the Maori [a scratch side, in fairness], is that four of the front five were Saracens. Itoje was absolutely outstanding in that game, and while I understand the argument that he provides an outstanding impact substitute, I think he's such a good player that omitting him doesn't make sense.

[LeRouxIsPHat]

Warburton is certainly lucky to be on the bench, but not sure there was any outstanding candidate for that role anyway. The route they've gone means there's no real cover at 8 (yeah it'll be SOB but how often has he played there recently?) but going with Stander would have meant there was no real cover at 7 either.

I think both sides have gone for some strange selections in that regard, and an early injury for either could really cause mayhem. New Zealand have less of those kind of issues but there'll still be a fair bit of moving around in certain circumstances.

[Hippo]

I thinking omitting Itoje is a very big call, and one I don't understand. He's looked outstanding so far, I've been hugely impressed with him. Leaving Halfpenny off is also a major call, as his goal kicking is so consistent. Having said that, Williams, while not quite hitting the heights yet on the tour, is obviously more of a threat with ball in hand and has to be one of the most improved players around. His discipline has improved a little over the years so hopefully he won't revert to his old bad habits.

[LeRouxIsPHat]

The other thing about picking AWJ over Itoje is that a lot of people seem to think that Gatland wanted some more experience in the side because of the rest of the players he went with. On the face of it that's fair enough but in reality Itoje has won premierships, a JWC, 6N and European cups. He might be younger and only have a fraction of AWJ's caps but he's been tested time and time again.

[CiaranIrl]

The other thing about picking AWJ over Itoje is that a lot of people seem to think that Gatland wanted some more experience in the side because of the rest of the players he went with. On the face of it that's fair enough but in reality Itoje has won premierships, a JWC, 6N and European cups. He might be younger and only have a fraction of AWJ's caps but he's been tested time and time again.

Yeah, but he's done some naive stuff on this tour too. He's gotten himself isolated and turned over the ball a few times, and a couple of poor defensive reads - I think it was the blues. He sometimes looks like a 22 year old, which he is.

[fourthirtythree]

I think we really underestimate who AWJ is in Ireland: he's the welsh Paul O'Connell. Paul got picked for some games when there were younger players and he was limited through injury but was still a great. In this case the scrummaging and maturity are obvious reasons for AWJ. I'd have picked Itoje, but I'm a supporter and always pick the more exciting option.

Congratulations to the Irish lads, but POM in particular, they don't hand out captaincy of The test team cheaply. Some honour.

[LeRouxIsPHat]

The other thing about picking AWJ over Itoje is that a lot of people seem to think that Gatland wanted some more experience in the side because of the rest of the players he went with. On the face of it that's fair enough but in reality Itoje has won premierships, a JWC, 6N and European cups. He might be younger and only have a fraction of AWJ's caps but he's been tested time and time again.

Yeah, but he's done some naive stuff on this tour too. He's gotten himself isolated and turned over the ball a few times, and a couple of poor defensive reads - I think it was the blues. He sometimes looks like a 22 year old, which he is.

Not sure I'd call that naive/due to inexperience, just a player making mistakes. Stander and Haskell are two guys who've done plenty of both of those things on tour and they've loads of experience.

That's a fair point 433. I rate AWJ very highly but it's more the way the last couple of Saturday games and selection panned out that confuses me about it, just surprising that Gatland has gone with form out wide but then made an unnecessary change to a pack that looked very good. Had AWJ started the last two Saturday games with Kruis and gone alright then it would make more sense to me.

[Hippo]

Have to try and keep the ball for a while at least

[fourthirtythree]

Thats Liam Williams justifying his selection for you.

Famtastic try.

[LeRouxIsPHat]

Thats Liam Williams justifying his selection for you.

Famtastic try.

Daly too, absolutely brilliant.

The Lions don't seem to have an attacking plan though. That try and Davies' break are the only proper attacks they've had. Apart from that it's just been excellent box kicking that ends up with the ball being run back at them anyway.

[CiaranIrl]

Pretty grim second half there. They score off any sniff of a chance. The dynamism and skill level is just ridiculous.

[Fan with smartphone]

Scoreboard harsh on the lions, but that's the way they measure the game.

[Ruckedtobits]

On June 21st.......

Traditionally, the Lions best chance in NZ was the First Test because the opposition had not had the preparation. However, having watched a decent Samoa team cause considerable problems for 30 minutes last Friday, I was quite literally shocked by the attacking pace and handling of the NZ team from the 31st to the 75th minute.......

Now, hearing the Crotty and Reid are added in and Savea is not selected on the wing and finally, that it's very unlikely to be raining during the game, I am convinced that NZ will beat the Lions by 17+ points.

The NZ front five is big and very experienced and, other than hooker, have a more experienced and skillful bench. Their back-row is a settled unit, experts in their roles and have played about 15 tests together. They have the best half-back combination in world rugby at present.....
Finally, at full-back they have the best counter-attacking, broken-field runner in world rugby side by side with two very competent defensive wingers.

The Lions may have the edge at second-row, but nowhere else. That is not enough. NZ will score 28-38 points. Lions may get 12-18

Considering the NZ team lost Smith and Crotty within 30 mins, they did well to score in the required target but Lions last try brought the game right into the original score range.

That 81st minute try cost me a bonanza, but still well ahead of the spread on the day. The games will get closer if both Smith and Crotty miss next two games. Lions must get Tipuric in to contest Cane who, with Reid & Retallick, were the difference up front and in the result. A good test match but not really a contest because of excellence of NZ handling at speed.

[suisse]

I like Owen Farrell but he was absolutely brutal. Barrett mixed up his game a lot more almost evenly dividing possession between run, pass and kick. When he ran, he made yards and beat defenders. Farrell was content with passing all day and when he ran, he made negative yardage. Sexton would have been a far bigger threat with ball in hand and with his kicking from hand.