Ireland 2017-18

[simonokeeffe]

Henshaw to fullback? bllcks

[ronk]

If Carbery/TOH is trusted at fullback then Zebo moves to wing with Earls. Scannell and Stockdale on the bench. (All positions covered)

Aki and Henshaw are the midfield you'd try and get on if there were no injuries and the current situation makes it even more likely.

If Sexton only starts two matches then there’s a big call coming and Ross Byrne has been getting gametime.

Prop order is clear, hookers clearish and locks will be Toner and Henderson.

Backrow I think Stander (6 or , POM, Conan covering two positions and VDF and SOB covering 7. Murphy adds versatility.

[paddyor]

No Ringrose, Tommy O'Donnell or Henry???
Longer term Joe really needs to be looking at Henshaw to FB and Carberry to 10.

Ringrose still injured. Would prefer see him back to form for Leinster.
TOD's a good player but hasn't excelled at european level yet. Bring him in if/when he does.
Haven't seen much of Henry yet this season but probably ahead of Murphy.

Schmidt has when having had the option of TOD opted instead for
1)Murphy
2)VdF
3)Leavy

He's well down the depth chart. It looks like Leavy is back in training so I think he'll make the squad. Throw in SOB and thats 3.5 7s. I don't think the squad needs more 7s (3 is enough), so I think Murphy gets in because we need more 6s and 8s.

[neiliog93]

Back row:Henry is done as a serious force at the top level, is 33 now and never really recovered from injuries/health problems. Gilroy is injured. It seems Leavy has recovered much more quickly than expected and will come into the reckoning. TOD and JOD have been disappointing this season and probably won't make the cut.

Outside backs: Zebo has also been a bit iffy, hasn't recovered his pace and might lose his starting place, especially with Conway, Sweetnam, Stockdale and Earls all playing well. Probably too soon for Chris Farrell to Barry Daly, and O'Loughlin and A.Byrne's defence hasn't been good enough.

Out-half: Short on options, Hanrahan has barely played for Munster and Ross Byrne and Carty probably aren't at the required level yet. Wouldn't be surprised to see Carbery used as an auxiliary out-half with Keatley in the squad providing cover, as he did in the 2014 Six Nations against Italy.

15: Carbery, Zebo, O'Halloran.
14: Stockdale, Sweetnam, Conway (cut one from final squad)
13.Aki, L.Marshall.
12.Henshaw, N.Scannell, McCloskey (McCloskey most likely to miss out here).
11.Earls.
10.Sexton, Keatley, Carbery (again).
9.Murray, L.McGrath, Marmion, Cooney (latter is outside bet, good form, but likely to miss out).

8.Conan, Stander (latter hasn't been at his best, Munster fans will go mad but his starting place is under threat even with Heaslip's injury).
7.VDF, Leavy, SOB.
6.POM, Ruddock, Jordi (likely the first two only make the final, shortened squad).
4+5: Henderson, Toner, Dillane + one/two of James Ryan, Treadwell, Roux (first three are fairly assured of their squad places, the other one or two second row squad places will be a dogfight between the latter three).
3:Furlong, John Ryan, + one of Porter, Bent (on fire).
2.Best, S.Cronin, N.Scannell....McCartney an outside bet.
1.J.McGrath, Healy, Kilcoyne.

[simonokeeffe]

Payne looks to be definitely out

Best might get the Leinster game the wek before to prove fitness

[dropkick]

Back row:Henry is done as a serious force at the top level, is 33 now and never really recovered from injuries/health problems. Gilroy is injured. It seems Leavy has recovered much more quickly than expected and will come into the reckoning. TOD and JOD have been disappointing this season and probably won't make the cut.

Outside backs: Zebo has also been a bit iffy, hasn't recovered his pace and might lose his starting place, especially with Conway, Sweetnam, Stockdale and Earls all playing well. Probably too soon for Chris Farrell to Barry Daly, and O'Loughlin and A.Byrne's defence hasn't been good enough.

Out-half: Short on options, Hanrahan has barely played for Munster and Ross Byrne and Carty probably aren't at the required level yet. Wouldn't be surprised to see Carbery used as an auxiliary out-half with Keatley in the squad providing cover, as he did in the 2014 Six Nations against Italy.

15: Carbery, Zebo, O'Halloran.
14: Stockdale, Sweetnam, Conway (cut one from final squad)
13.Aki, L.Marshall.
12.Henshaw, N.Scannell, McCloskey (McCloskey most likely to miss out here).
11.Earls.
10.Sexton, Keatley, Carbery (again).
9.Murray, L.McGrath, Marmion, Cooney (latter is outside bet, good form, but likely to miss out).

8.Conan, Stander (latter hasn't been at his best, Munster fans will go mad but his starting place is under threat even with Heaslip's injury).
7.VDF, Leavy, SOB.
6.POM, Ruddock, Jordi (likely the first two only make the final, shortened squad).
4+5: Henderson, Toner, Dillane + one/two of James Ryan, Treadwell, Roux (first three are fairly assured of their squad places, the other one or two second row squad places will be a dogfight between the latter three).
3:Furlong, John Ryan, + one of Porter, Bent (on fire).
2.Best, S.Cronin, N.Scannell....McCartney an outside bet.
1.J.McGrath, Healy, Kilcoyne.

I don't think Keatley is good enough for the Ireland squad. He doesn't do it in the big games. Bleyendaal is similar actually. Hanrahan would be my choice of those but he needs to start playing 10 for Munster first. Carbery will likely back up Sexton but it must be a worry for Schmidt that he doesn't play there for Leinster.

I'd like to see Henshaw playing at 13 if Ringrose isn't back, which looks likely. Henshaw is wasted playing 12 imo. He is ordinary there but looks much better when playing 13. Can a case be made for Tom Farrell. He seems to be going well in Connacht, playing 12 I believe.

Luke Marshall is a player I've always thought had great potential but never seems to produce an 80 min performance. Theres always a blunder waiting to happen. Chris Farrell falls into that category too lately. McCluskey and Scannell look the most likely 12s.


Of the front row, 3rd choice tighthead is likely to be Bealham. Bent would make a lot of international squads and that highlights the depth there these days. Remember when people were doing a Strachan and blaming genetics for the lack of props 3 or 4 years ago.

[LeRouxIsPHat]

I'd pick Henshaw at 13, but don't think he's wasted at 12. When he first broke through for Ireland (as a regular starter) he was excellent there, I just think our attack regressed as a team and he suffered from that because we weren't on the front foot so often, we got lateral, and we relied too heavily on him to correct those things and get us over the gainline in heavy traffic. Stander was the same, we just ran out of ideas and asked those two in particular to get us out of a hole.

He might well be better at 13, I just feel that we can get more out of him at 12. I would like us to use him out wide more often though, and that's partly what I mean about overusing him to just bash it up. He can still do that, but we should be doing more to get the best out of him. Ringrose is very capable at taking the ball up (and capable of playing 12 in general) and they could easily switch positions during games just like we saw from Bod and Darce before the latter damaged his arm and lost some of his explosiveness. I can easily imagine Ringrose cutting back inside and picking off forwards a la Bod and Stockdale picking lines off him.

Really curious to see what happens at ten given that Joe has always been so determined to have specialists in each position and doesn't want to disrupt a backline too much if a change is required. I reckon he'll bench Carbery but I doubt he likes any of the options at his disposal right now.

[Ruckedtobits]

Everything Joe does from here is geared at Tokyo 2019 and that, perhaps incredibly, includes two 6N tournaments. Sure he won't ignore them, but he will target specific games for a win in a particular manner. He will definitely target a French, English and Welsh game and specific Autumn and Tour games so that his enlarged Squad learn how to put all these teams away when required.

IMO, having hoped that RK would continue at 15 and that he could add some counter-attack to his skill set, Joe may now be resigning himself to Joey, Zebo or O'Halloran in the full-back role. Each has defensive shortcomings but each can be improved in this regard by focussed coaching. Any one of them provide better attacking skills than RK has offered for at least three seasons past.

His wing selection still has plenty of time. Earls is the standout at present. Stockdale is progressing and has physique, pace and confidence. Sweetnam has aerial ability and a scoring nose. Adeoluken has pace and knows where the try line is and is good in the air. Conway has matured and has unique acceleration and quick feet. Daly is coming late but is definitely in the frame. Byrne could still get there. Trimble, Bowe McFadden and DK will not be on that bus in my opinion. Healy could be.

In the centre Henshaw is the standout - at 12 or 13. Ringrose, injured and less than 100%, was encouraged to travel to Japan and US despite needing an Op. That tells us how much Joe wanted to see him in that environment without JS or Robbie alongside. Marshall, McCloskey and Scannell have all stated their cases at various times and Scannell still seems to be improving and McCloskey maturing. The big question mark is, can Bundee re-produce his 2016 form at international level? If he can, he's a definite because, in that form, he was impossible to mark; he partnered Henshaw really well on the few occasions they played strong opposition; and, on form, he is an inspirational character within a Squad. However, there is some distance between his current form and the heights he hit when Lam was guiding the Western bus towards Pro12 success.

The also-rans will probably include Farrell, Reid, Ronaldson, O'Loughlin and Olding - a most unfortunate rugby figure at this point.

Outhalf is obviously a key position. J10 is a truly world-class controller, Director and place-kicker. In the continued absence of Jackson, there is no ready-made alternative, although Joey has many great skills for the position. However, in the very tight games, this Irish Squad will always need a director and place-kicker. Unless Carbery learns very quickly to place kick to top level and play the role of Director for a pack that is being matched, or subdued, up front, he won't become the automatic successor. IMO, there's no chance it will be Keatley or Carty and with Joe now building his 2019 Squad, neither of them will figure in any circumstance.

Bleyandall is eligible and still developing. No evidence this season that he has the place-kicking standard necessary but last year, under very adverse circumstances, he looked the part as both Director and 90% place-kicker. Can he regain that stature? Hanrahan has done it previously for an Irish team. His performances throughout the 2012 Junior World Cup, when he only got the No 10 shirt bcause Jackson was withdrawn from the competition by Ulster, although he had been first-chiice No 10 for the 6N competition, were exemplary. It would a real deja vu, if Hanrahan was once again to benefit from Jackson's unavailability and produce the level of performance we haven't seen from him since that tournament.

Which brings us to Ross Byrne. I confess to an initial bias against him at No 10 in the confrontation wiih Carbery whom I consider has much the better skill-set and outlook to serve his team from that key position. However, opinions of others whom I respect point out that Ross is still younger than J10 was that fateful day in Croke Park when he stepped into a big pair of boots and filled them completely. Byrne has already a substantially better match-day experience and many more points accumulated that Jonno had at the same age. Also, against Montpellier he demonstrated a skill I wasn't aware of at all - startling acceleration and an eye for a gap!

He doesn't kick consistently well - either penalty line kicks or positional kicking on the hoof, but occasionally he has done both to the highest standards. He doesn't tackle his size or his weigh, particularly on his left shoulder, but he has often shown in the vital place in defence to stop even big forwards close to the line. So, all in all and given the coaching staffs he will come into contact with, I certainly don't rule him out of the 2019 contest yet.

And finally to No 9. We will have the dominant scrum-half in that tournament. Conor Murray has done it all, except win a big Club competition. His skill-set and temprament is top drawer and his physique and experience marks him as unique. Kieran Marmion has jumped every hurdle placed in front of him. His skills contrast with Murray in his breaking ability from both breakdowns and broken play. His box kicking has improved out of sight and thus, given any sort of decent ball from the Connacht pack, he will continue to develop over the next 20 months.

The third RWC slot will be between McGrath and Cooney. IMO, this may well be Cooney, based on his current CV because of two factors, quality and consistency of passing and the ability to place kick at better than 85% in pressure situations. That is not to under-estimate the very considerable skill package of Luke McGrath, who also has a unique CV with leadership skills to the forefront. However, Ireland in 2019 RWC will have leadership in abundance throughout the Squad. What they also must have is a cadre of consistently high quality passing scrum-halves and this is the one skill that McGrath must focus on.

So, Thursday awaiting Saturday in mid-EPCR mode, herewith a stream of conciousness re RWC 2019 - Backs Division. More anon about forwards when those thoughts have been gathered into a neat pile.

[Fan with smartphone]

That’s largely how I’d see it. I think Schmidt is in a position that he has a decent outline of who he will want to pick and most positions are 3 deep which is his stated aim. It’s a big weekend for Trimble and Bowe, because there’s a red pen hovering and it’s not a highlighter. I’d give Conway a bit of a jump up the queue personally. It’s going to be a hard track which tends to suit him and he can play right wing and fullback to a high level. I’d see O’Halloran as more fullback and the other right wings aren’t fullbacks. I’m not a particular fan of Sweetnam, but O’Loughlin looks like someone who is rated, and with good reason. He’s my dark horse to develop over the next 2 years and take the spot.

Aki has shown he can cut it and joe has had him in and around the squad already so I’m of the opinion he’ll make it. I think his focus became team Ireland some time ago. For me that leaves Scannell and Hanrahan competing for a 12 who can cover 10. That’s presuming he excludes McCloskey, which is how it’s largely gone so far. Marshall for me is behind Henshaw and Ringrose.

Byrne, Carbery, Blyendaal are all competing for Jackson’s position. Marmion has put some daylight in his race with the other scrum halves and that means if he takes 3 it’s mcgrath and Cooney in a battle. If it comes down to taking Leavy or a third 9, I’d want Leavy though. I don’t think VdF’s history as a 9 qualifies him to do a Madigan and cover this position but I personally would still take my chances with 2 scrum halves.

Sooooo, backs: Murray, Marmion, Earls, Stockdale, Aki, Scannell, Ringrose, Henshaw, O’Loughlin, Conway, Zebo.

Looking forward to your forwards post, but to pre-empt: Conan, Stander, O’Brien, Van der Flier, O’Mahony, Leavy, Beirne, Ryan, Henderson, Toner, Bealham, Ryan, Furlong, Best, Cronin, Scannell, McGrath, Healy.

Heaslip got a contract with a view to making the World Cup, but his own injuries and the performance of others now make that odds against in my eyes, though he has the capacity to do it. Dillane could be just shaded out of it and Porter will be trying to make a dent at 3. Ryan and Bealham to me are very good tightheads though. Best will be touch and go, but I see him as a Ledesma type who will keep on keeping on. There will be alternatives if I’m wrong and he runs out of road. Only bolter I see is Gallagher who is on the bench for Connacht tomorrow. Max Deegan i thought might, but it’s hard to see it in time for 2019.

I realise this is perhaps a fool’s errand, but you are right that 2019 will guide all decisions from here in, so as much as it’s pie in the sky, it’s relevant too. I don’t subscribe to the 6 nations is IRFU’s be all and end all theorists. That stopped some time ago.

Everything Joe does from here is geared at Tokyo 2019 and that, perhaps incredibly, includes two 6N tournaments. Sure he won't ignore them, but he will target specific games for a win in a particular manner. He will definitely target a French, English and Welsh game and specific Autumn and Tour games so that his enlarged Squad learn how to put all these teams away when required.

IMO, having hoped that RK would continue at 15 and that he could add some counter-attack to his skill set, Joe may now be resigning himself to Joey, Zebo or O'Halloran in the full-back role. Each has defensive shortcomings but each can be improved in this regard by focussed coaching. Any one of them provide better attacking skills than RK has offered for at least three seasons past.

His wing selection still has plenty of time. Earls is the standout at present. Stockdale is progressing and has physique, pace and confidence. Sweetnam has aerial ability and a scoring nose. Adeoluken has pace and knows where the try line is and is good in the air. Conway has matured and has unique acceleration and quick feet. Daly is coming late but is definitely in the frame. Byrne could still get there. Trimble, Bowe McFadden and DK will not be on that bus in my opinion. Healy could be.

In the centre Henshaw is the standout - at 12 or 13. Ringrose, injured and less than 100%, was encouraged to travel to Japan and US despite needing an Op. That tells us how much Joe wanted to see him in that environment without JS or Robbie alongside. Marshall, McCloskey and Scannell have all stated their cases at various times and Scannell still seems to be improving and McCloskey maturing. The big question mark is, can Bundee re-produce his 2016 form at international level? If he can, he's a definite because, in that form, he was impossible to mark; he partnered Henshaw really well on the few occasions they played strong opposition; and, on form, he is an inspirational character within a Squad. However, there is some distance between his current form and the heights he hit when Lam was guiding the Western bus towards Pro12 success.

The also-rans will probably include Farrell, Reid, Ronaldson, O'Loughlin and Olding - a most unfortunate rugby figure at this point.

Outhalf is obviously a key position. J10 is a truly world-class controller, Director and place-kicker. In the continued absence of Jackson, there is no ready-made alternative, although Joey has many great skills for the position. However, in the very tight games, this Irish Squad will always need a director and place-kicker. Unless Carbery learns very quickly to place kick to top level and play the role of Director for a pack that is being matched, or subdued, up front, he won't become the automatic successor. IMO, there's no chance it will be Keatley or Carty and with Joe now building his 2019 Squad, neither of them will figure in any circumstance.

Bleyandall is eligible and still developing. No evidence this season that he has the place-kicking standard necessary but last year, under very adverse circumstances, he looked the part as both Director and 90% place-kicker. Can he regain that stature? Hanrahan has done it previously for an Irish team. His performances throughout the 2012 Junior World Cup, when he only got the No 10 shirt bcause Jackson was withdrawn from the competition by Ulster, although he had been first-chiice No 10 for the 6N competition, were exemplary. It would a real deja vu, if Hanrahan was once again to benefit from Jackson's unavailability and produce the level of performance we haven't seen from him since that tournament.

Which brings us to Ross Byrne. I confess to an initial bias against him at No 10 in the confrontation wiih Carbery whom I consider has much the better skill-set and outlook to serve his team from that key position. However, opinions of others whom I respect point out that Ross is still younger than J10 was that fateful day in Croke Park when he stepped into a big pair of boots and filled them completely. Byrne has already a substantially better match-day experience and many more points accumulated that Jonno had at the same age. Also, against Montpellier he demonstrated a skill I wasn't aware of at all - startling acceleration and an eye for a gap!

He doesn't kick consistently well - either penalty line kicks or positional kicking on the hoof, but occasionally he has done both to the highest standards. He doesn't tackle his size or his weigh, particularly on his left shoulder, but he has often shown in the vital place in defence to stop even big forwards close to the line. So, all in all and given the coaching staffs he will come into contact with, I certainly don't rule him out of the 2019 contest yet.

And finally to No 9. We will have the dominant scrum-half in that tournament. Conor Murray has done it all, except win a big Club competition. His skill-set and temprament is top drawer and his physique and experience marks him as unique. Kieran Marmion has jumped every hurdle placed in front of him. His skills contrast with Murray in his breaking ability from both breakdowns and broken play. His box kicking has improved out of sight and thus, given any sort of decent ball from the Connacht pack, he will continue to develop over the next 20 months.

The third RWC slot will be between McGrath and Cooney. IMO, this may well be Cooney, based on his current CV because of two factors, quality and consistency of passing and the ability to place kick at better than 85% in pressure situations. That is not to under-estimate the very considerable skill package of Luke McGrath, who also has a unique CV with leadership skills to the forefront. However, Ireland in 2019 RWC will have leadership in abundance throughout the Squad. What they also must have is a cadre of consistently high quality passing scrum-halves and this is the one skill that McGrath must focus on.

So, Thursday awaiting Saturday in mid-EPCR mode, herewith a stream of conciousness re RWC 2019 - Backs Division. More anon about forwards when those thoughts have been gathered into a neat pile.

[ronk]

I think it’s the other way around. RWC is miles away and while we’ve entered the building phase, there’s a lot of important rugby to be played.

Squad is too fluid to think about locking down more than a few positions and they’re set already.

Other positional needs are more immediate or potentially immediate (could happen quickly with injuries).

Heaslip might be his normal self by the 6N but we need someone right now and it might be Stander, but we miss a chance if Conan isn’t playing. Any issues will be settled by the RWC.

Ditto 10. There’s plenty of time to look at Byrne, Bleyendaal, Carbery etc. There’s even time that Jackson could be back or Madigan transferred to a province.

But if Sexton is gonna miss a few 6N games we’re not in a great position.

The positions that are worries in terms of depth in 2 years happen to be the ones with issues now. The best fix is to develop depth now.

[CiaranIrl]

I thought O'Mahony was poor again today. Stander was ok, but not great. Makes the Ireland team selection super interesting. There would be civil war if neither got selected vs the Saffers, but the various Leinster back row options are definitely playing better.

Is the following team possible?

Healy, Cronin, Furlong, Henderson, Toner, Ruddock, VDF, Conan, Murray, Sexton, Earls, Aki, Henshaw, Zebo, Carberry

[ronk]

I doubt they’re under threat in the short term. POM played like he normally does and there’d need to be more to get Ruddock ahead of him.

Conan could come in with Stander possibly moving to 6.

SOB is safe too.

[simonokeeffe]

I dont think Conan did enough last 3 games

With Best available, thankfully as Scannell seems injured, Id go Ruddock SOB/JVDF Stander

[matt]

Zebo off to Racing apparently.

Cannot see Joe picking him from now.

[simonokeeffe]

Zebo off to Racing apparently.

Cannot see Joe picking him from now.

No point in picking him

Carberry has to start at 15 with maybe TOH on bench with Scannell
Earls has to start. Problem is hes best at 11 but far fewer options at 14.

Carberry Sweetnam Earls or Carberry Earls Stockdale for me. Unless Trimble pulls up trees this weekend. But hes old come RWC

[CiaranIrl]

There was a rumour swirling that O'Halloran might be moving to Munster for next year, which could jump him to the forefront of Joe's world cup thoughts.

[Experimental]

Would be a great move for Munster and O'Halloran. Really don't know why Scannell is even in the picture tbh, I hear eddie O S raving about him all the time, but I must be blinking during munster matches when hes coming up with his magic. Chris Henry is playing better than POM at the moment for sure, himself and hendo had good games albeit in that Ulster loss. Stander has work to do. I still reckon its a blue backrow as it stands, work to do down in Munster.

[Peg Leg]

TOH to munster is a given as far as munsterfans.ie is concerned. The IRFU owe them one you see.

[johng]

The IRFU owe them one you see.

Can they not just be happy with 9 Niqs and a bailout?

[simonokeeffe]

The IRFU owe them one you see.

Can they not just be happy with 9 Niqs and a bailout?

we need to push the Dave Kearney rumour just to wind them up