Ireland 2018/2019

[suisse]

On to the game, I don't think we're gonna win. Mainly because I don't think we're good enough. NZ will not be confused/bamboozled by our attack and we'll find it very hard to break them down. I expect multiple examples of 15+ phase possession, pummeling away but not really going anywhere, then a knock on or a brilliant steal relieves the pressure. I believe Ireland will play well but mistakes happen. If we kick loosely once in each half, NZ will make 60 meters eachtime inside 10 seconds. Our set pieces will be fine, Marmion and Sexton will be good and no-one will play badly. But we're too predictable in attack and NZ will not be overcome by our pod system. It'll take us 15 mins of possession to score 2 penalties, then NZ will put together one attack in less than a minute and score 7 points.

Ireland 12 New Zealand 22. My prediction.

[Oldschool]

On to the game, I don't think we're gonna win. Mainly because I don't think we're good enough. NZ will not be confused/bamboozled by our attack and we'll find it very hard to break them down. I expect multiple examples of 15+ phase possession, pummeling away but not really going anywhere, then a knock on or a brilliant steal relieves the pressure. I believe Ireland will play well but mistakes happen. If we kick loosely once in each half, NZ will make 60 meters eachtime inside 10 seconds. Our set pieces will be fine, Marmion and Sexton will be good and no-one will play badly. But we're too predictable in attack and NZ will not be overcome by our pod system. It'll take us 15 mins of possession to score 2 penalties, then NZ will put together one attack in less than a minute and score 7 points.

Ireland 12 New Zealand 22. My prediction.

A difficult one to call.
You mentioned penos.
Wayne Barnes is the ref. This is to our advantage.
Gets a lot of unfair (imho)) stick from our fans but he is even less loved in NZ apparently.
Barnes is a players ref and has always put the welfare ofplayers first.
NZ player's rather laissez faire attitude to opposition player safety is going to be put under the hammer with Barnes in charge.
If Leavy doesn't make it then JVDF is a great replacement but who comes onto the bench.
Beirne will be a consideration but we need another loosely so Jordi Murphy would be the man.
Or Jordi straight in even.

[Peg Leg]

" Nothing to see here" in the selection. Exactly as expected.

I don't see the "Tadhg Beirne is unlucky" argument at all tbh.

I know some may see it as sacrilegious; but I still think he'd offer more than POM. I watched the Argentina match in detail again; just to see how good POM really was. Apart from one key lineout steal; a maul steal and 1 breakdown turnover - he does not match up with what a good six does in terms of carries, and tackles. I'm sure someone has the stats but I'd be surprised if his stats in those facets cannot be more than average. For me he'd need to be creating lineout havoc on opposition throw (not the odd TO over 80 mins). That's what his speciality is supposed to be. How much does he bring to the table in terms of the intangibles of leadership, motivation on the pitch. I just don't see it. Beirne is equally adept at the lineout; a better carrier, better hands and step, better at the breakdown, and covers more positions. Maybe POM is playing to a pattern dictated by Joe, but he just doesn't contribute enough of the tangible for me.

I'm more concerned about Stander personally. He's becoming very predictable and one dimensional.

Becoming?
He's a flat track bully who makes yards if he breaks 1st tackle, solid line out and scrum, good over the ball (very hard to shift), good 2nd man into a ruck, seems to add massive energy in maul defence, great at leeching in close qtrs but no hands or feet.
Not sure if Conan's pro's outweigh Stander's con's though.

[Peg Leg]

On to the game, I don't think we're gonna win. Mainly because I don't think we're good enough. NZ will not be confused/bamboozled by our attack and we'll find it very hard to break them down. I expect multiple examples of 15+ phase possession, pummeling away but not really going anywhere, then a knock on or a brilliant steal relieves the pressure. I believe Ireland will play well but mistakes happen. If we kick loosely once in each half, NZ will make 60 meters eachtime inside 10 seconds. Our set pieces will be fine, Marmion and Sexton will be good and no-one will play badly. But we're too predictable in attack and NZ will not be overcome by our pod system. It'll take us 15 mins of possession to score 2 penalties, then NZ will put together one attack in less than a minute and score 7 points.

Ireland 12 New Zealand 22. My prediction.

We see that in nearly every game against a tier one side, our shift from offensive alignment to defensive is a really slow transition, made worse obviously by intelligent teams getting quicker ball and running at gaps or inside shoulders in a D on its heels. But as rtb said if rucks are resourced, carriers supported, the ball will be retained and hopefully Barnes refs an NH game, we can win. Knock-ons need to be jumped on as though they didn't happen to prevent them moving quickly. It's high risk if they turn over but I think there are penos in this NZ team and the retiring Barnsey can be the Jeff Flake of referees and actually hold NZ to account before he rides off into the sunset/law firm. With all that in mind I expect our kicking game and set piece to determine the outcome.

[LeRouxIsPHat]

Last week I said that Argentina targeted Stander because they knew he doesn't pass but I don't think that's his problem, I think it's an issue that others need to address. There were a couple of times where they had guys lined up waiting for him and what I'd like to see tomorrow is that we're better at spotting that and throwing the ball out the back instead. He wasn't making big bursts last week (or all season really) but his work rate was still great and I wouldn't downplay the importance of that.

[LeRouxIsPHat]

I almost never read, watch or listen to rugby content in Ireland. Mainly because all of the mainstream stuff is rubbish. I clicked on that link to have a look. I took nothing from it except MacKenna suffers from a peculiar Irish disease known as "speaking for the entire population." He does it frequently and, even more impressively, he seems to know exactly what I'm thinking about Canada v Germany. A marvellous skill. Except, he got it wrong.

I had to have a look too because of the fuss and it really is a terrible article, and totally agree that speaking for everyone is infuriating. He also seems to base it on absolutely nothing, just because he says that people tout rugby as being the people's game (or whatever phrase he used) doesn't make it true. Similarly, people do actually know about the playoff game, BOD even mentioned it on instagram the other day.

If you read the comments on twitter you'll see that some people say they disagree with his point and he'll reply saying that that wasn't the point he was making. Then others will say they don't get the point and he'll spell it out as being the one that others said they disagree with

What bugs me the most is that he's used by people like the Second Captains. The Indo is a rag and I can understand why his schtick appeals to them (it obviously works) but I would have hoped that others would have higher standards and not entertain him. He seems to hate sport, not sure why he actually writes about it. Even worse than that, he doesn't seem to understand it. It's okay to follow a team or a league without having an in depth knowledge of it worldwide

Lastly, it's amazing that such an authority on the game keeps referring to World Rugby as the IRB.

[cormac]

Dan out, Josh starts, Nordi on the bench

[matt]

On to the game, I don't think we're gonna win. Mainly because I don't think we're good enough. NZ will not be confused/bamboozled by our attack and we'll find it very hard to break them down. I expect multiple examples of 15+ phase possession, pummeling away but not really going anywhere, then a knock on or a brilliant steal relieves the pressure. I believe Ireland will play well but mistakes happen. If we kick loosely once in each half, NZ will make 60 meters eachtime inside 10 seconds. Our set pieces will be fine, Marmion and Sexton will be good and no-one will play badly. But we're too predictable in attack and NZ will not be overcome by our pod system. It'll take us 15 mins of possession to score 2 penalties, then NZ will put together one attack in less than a minute and score 7 points.

Ireland 12 New Zealand 22. My prediction.

We see that in nearly every game against a tier one side, our shift from offensive alignment to defensive is a really slow transition, made worse obviously by intelligent teams getting quicker ball and running at gaps or inside shoulders in a D on its heels. But as rtb said if rucks are resourced, carriers supported, the ball will be retained and hopefully Barnes refs an NH game, we can win. Knock-ons need to be jumped on as though they didn't happen to prevent them moving quickly. It's high risk if they turn over but I think there are penos in this NZ team and the retiring Barnsey can be the Jeff Flake of referees and actually hold NZ to account before he rides off into the sunset/law firm. With all that in mind I expect our kicking game and set piece to determine the outcome.

Can't argue with above as the base case analysis for this game. Just hope that JS (will use every play he knows) & team blow that base case out of the water. It will take that to win.

NZ will quite reasonably believe they can limit us to 0 or 1 try even if we have a lot of possession and also believe they can score min 2 or 3 trys more if we have loose kicks so all backs but especially Marmian/Luke have to be careful that kicking is not too long if box and in corners if in open play as otherwise their back 3 will have a field day.

O'Gara made a good point is that we will need at least 2 trys plus about 4 pens to win. We are likely to throw everything at them in the first half and go to the corner as much as possible trusting our pack will outplay theirs & target the 4 relative newbies - their props, Savea, and Todd as they know NZ have advantage at 2, 4, 5 and 8. In Chicago we targeted their reserve second rows effectively different approach needed v Retallick & Whitelock.

Our pack has to have the game of their lives especially in the line out as Retallick will disrupt everything we do. Leavy a big loss in attack particularly but JVDF is ideally suited for this game and could end up with 30 tackles.


3 tries for Ireland today against the odds (Furlong, Ringrose & 43rd min sub Sean Cronin). 50:50 as to whether that will be good enough. NZ will be ruthless hope we are too while getting less cards or injuries than the pacific poachers.

[Ruckedtobits]

Our problem when playing NZ in the past has not been creating try chances, our defecit has been in taking them. I'm hugely confident that Ireland will take 50% of our chances in the oppisite 22m area tomorrow.

Keeping McKensey at 15 suggests that NZ believe they can outscore us, not out-defend us. They have more attacking winger options and are not playing their best full-back in position. Arney Savea is a penalty machine for a Premiership ref like Barnes. JVdF is a better No 7 that England fielded last week!

Only one more sleep!

[wixfjord]

I have a bad feeling about this one.

It will be one of Schmidt's finest hours to pull of a win though.

JVDF will be licking his lips at Barrett...

[Oldschool]

I have a bad feeling about this one.

It will be one of Schmidt's finest hours to pull of a win though.

JVDF will be licking his lips at Barrett...

Ah will you give over with the bad feeling stuff.
Ireland have been competitive against every team they've played since JS took over.
That being the case it's reasonable to expect that we'll still be in the game going into the last 10 mins.
There are no guarantees after that, for either team.
Joe has had many "finest" hours with Ireland, not least a GS win in Twickenham just 6 months ago.

[wixfjord]

I have a bad feeling about this one.

It will be one of Schmidt's finest hours to pull of a win though.

JVDF will be licking his lips at Barrett...

Ah will you give over with the bad feeling stuff.
Ireland have been competitive against every team they've played since JS took over.
That being the case it's reasonable to expect that we'll still be in the game going into the last 10 mins.
There are no guarantees after that, for either team.
Joe has had many "finest" hours with Ireland, not least a GS win in Twickenham just 6 months ago.

Will you relax Oldschool you'll give yourself a stroke. What a weird post!

Where did I say we wouldn't be competitive?!

[Fan with smartphone]

I understand the bad feeling given the quality we are missing and the quality they have, but we are better than them. I don’t say that lightly because they are brilliant. But we are.

[suisse]

I think we're a good team - often a very good team - that is well coached and I've no issue with selection, and I never do with Schmidt.

But I don't think we're better than them. I also have a bad feeling about this. I don't know if it's cos I live very far from home and I rarely - if ever - listen to Irish media and I don't have much interaction with Irish rugby fans. The media can, like everywhere, ratchet up hype and expectations but I think we're badly in need of evaluation from a neutral, well respected journalist. Yes, we won a Grand Slam and successfully toured Australia. It could have been very different, however. And whilst it wasn't, we haven't played a team this good since NZ were last here. I think we're looking down the barrel of a solid 10+ point loss.

They're gonna be far more clinical and possibly cynical than any other team we've faced in the past 2 years. They'll score off pretty much every mistake and they'll be able to contain our attack very comfortably.

This is just too big of a step up. I'm confident every Irish player will play well, some exceptionally, but they're just better than we are.

[Leoslovechild]

I think we're a good team - often a very good team - that is well coached and I've no issue with selection, and I never do with Schmidt.

But I don't think we're better than them. I also have a bad feeling about this. I don't know if it's cos I live very far from home and I rarely - if ever - listen to Irish media and I don't have much interaction with Irish rugby fans. The media can, like everywhere, ratchet up hype and expectations but I think we're badly in need of evaluation from a neutral, well respected journalist. Yes, we won a Grand Slam and successfully toured Australia. It could have been very different, however. And whilst it wasn't, we haven't played a team this good since NZ were last here. I think we're looking down the barrel of a solid 10+ point loss.

They're gonna be far more clinical and possibly cynical than any other team we've faced in the past 2 years. They'll score off pretty much every mistake and they'll be able to contain our attack very comfortably.

This is just too big of a step up. I'm confident every Irish player will play well, some exceptionally, but they're just better than we are.

agree with a lot of what you say but I would add that New Zealand haven't played a team as good as us either and England really should have beaten then last week and would we not expect Ireland to beat England at the moment?I think we have a great chance this evening and will be very hopeful

[Oldschool]

I think we're a good team - often a very good team - that is well coached and I've no issue with selection, and I never do with Schmidt.

But I don't think we're better than them. I also have a bad feeling about this. I don't know if it's cos I live very far from home and I rarely - if ever - listen to Irish media and I don't have much interaction with Irish rugby fans. The media can, like everywhere, ratchet up hype and expectations but I think we're badly in need of evaluation from a neutral, well respected journalist. Yes, we won a Grand Slam and successfully toured Australia. It could have been very different, however. And whilst it wasn't, we haven't played a team this good since NZ were last here. I think we're looking down the barrel of a solid 10+ point loss.

They're gonna be far more clinical and possibly cynical than any other team we've faced in the past 2 years. They'll score off pretty much every mistake and they'll be able to contain our attack very comfortably.

This is just too big of a step up. I'm confident every Irish player will play well, some exceptionally, but they're just better than we are.

NZ teams will always be good and usually well coached.
Hansen is an excellent coach but this NZ team have yet(for me at least) to prove that they are the equal of their predecessors.
That gives me confidence that we will be well in this game going into the last 10 minutes.
Reputations are on the line. In Joe we trust.

[wixfjord]

I understand the bad feeling given the quality we are missing and the quality they have, but we are better than them. I don’t say that lightly because they are brilliant. But we are.

That's a big claim to say we're better than the #1 ranked team in the world without two guaranteed starters and SOB.

On the facts I don't see how, so what's your rationale for it?

[Fan with smartphone]

The media here would largely agree with you I think Suisse - the all blacks will be a bridge too far. And look, I’d feel a lot better with Murray, SOB, Leavy, Henshaw available. I’d like Best to have had a few more minutes this season (might be wrong but I’d argue he is underdone this season rather than overdone generally). I’d like Sexton humming like he was all of last season and I’d like no men playing with niggles. I don’t think today will be Ireland at their peak and that’s a pity. But. JVDF is a step down from nobody. Marmion deserves his chance here. Aki and Ringrose is a very decent partnership. Best will play better for last week and presumably the niggles are well cleared.

Looking at New Zealand wixjford, and I’d accept the caveat that possibly they are targeting this game in their season and are obviously well capable of an incredible display, but looking at them - I’m inclined to agree with oldschool in that I’m not convinced they are at the level they have been. I saw them in the French tests and they weren’t tara. South Africa beat them. I watched a fair bit of the ‘canes this year and I know how this sounds, but Barrett was flat out poor in what I saw. Now he has the potential to play really well. He is 3 time WPOTY and nominated again. And although I would question that decision, even I would say his class is permanent, his form is temporary and he definitely has the potential to make outrageous plays. But for a prolonged period of time he has been doing one spectacular thing, then two bad things. At times brilliant, at times bang average. Perhaps I’m over rating us, but I don’t think that will cut it against this Ireland team.

Now they are well capable of beating us in their outstanding back 3. I remember after Ireland beat South Africa a few years ago (the game where Ruddock came in late) and Janie du Plessis was asked had you ever so dominated a team in all facets and got well beaten like the way they were? He gave a brilliant answer along the lines of “oh yeah, all the time in New Zealand. We are on top and then they do some crazy ninja stuff and score 3 tries.” But i think we can match their Second row and from 1-10 I think we can outplay them. Had a kiwi had a season like Furlong he would be nailed on world player of the year himself. Goodhue is absolutely exceptional and is going to be a real treat to watch for those who haven’t seen him, but our centres are good too. I worry about their outstanding back 3, but I can’t imagine Joe doesn’t have a plan for them. Coles and Barrett (Scott Barrett is playing very well) off the bench will give a lot of trouble too, but we have our own threats off the bench.

Basically I just don’t see this like the old days. They’ll do well to better our scrum and lineout. I think we won’t fear their hard carrying like we once would have had to. Plus we can hurt them with our own. Two years ago they had to give up penalties to defend us - they couldn’t do it legally. It will be interesting to see if that has changed. Our breakdown technique has been as good as, if not better than them for some time now. We can live and thrive at the pace they want to play at. They can get us by doing something brilliant, that is definitely true. I can see McKenzie or Smith or Ioane or Goodhue, or indeed Barrett doing something brilliant. But particularly at home, even missing important players - if we perform, we will get the possession, we will get the field position, we will get the opportunities to allow us to win.

[LeRouxIsPHat]

I definitely think there are big question marks around them. They have a few experienced guys who are nowhere near their best (Franks, Whitelock, Read, A Smith, B Smith), they don't really have players like Nonu or Sonny Bill who were pretty much unstoppable for one defender, and there are issues with Barrett's kicking. If you go through this season they were pretty lucky against France because of the cards and played poorly for quite a bit of the RC. Then their first half an hour or so last week against England was an absolute horror show.

But I don't mean to say they're a bad team when I say all that. They may not be as consistently brilliant as the past or have that aura of invincibility but the reality is still that they usually still find a way to win comfortably and I think I saw that they average over 5 tries a game.

I'm not bothered about who's better but it is significant as we head to the WC because we need to show we can deliver under pressure (as we have done for the last 12 months) and that we're not overly reliant on certain individuals, and some of NZ's experienced guys need to perform or else I'd expect them to make changes before Japan. If we were to win comfortably then I think you could say that we're better but I don't think there's much in it and am really just hoping for a great game. A Saturday evening under the lights when it's by far the biggest game on today really is mouthwatering, hope it doesn't disappoint.

[Peg Leg]

Anxious as fock now.
I'm hoping the first thing on Ja Ryan's list is to scare the living shite out of A Smith.