I think it is inevitable that 7s will become the de facto preferred game in certain countries. Comparing the 2 codes as "products", 7s is cheaper, less complex, provides annual global competition and the lure of the Olympics (both in terms of aspiration for players and funding from national Olympic associations).blockhead wrote:Rugby is dancing with the devil when it deals with the Olympic movement. If 7s takes off in the Olympics then it could easily become the only rugby played in these so called developing nations. 15 man rugby would be stillborn and rugby as we know it would struggle to break any new ground.
15s has bigger squads, is technically more complex so more specialist coaching is required, and if you are a minnow, the big countries basically operate a closed shop and aren't interested in playing you unless you happen to get drawn against them in the RWC.
If a product is already well established in a market, then it won't be displaced, but if it isn't, it doesn't matter if you think 15s is a better product than 7s - the cheaper, simpler product with global distribution and association with the Olympics will win out.