http://www.rugbydump.com/2011/09/2103/r ... -the-world
Sorry for long post, but I am interested to know if others share my lack of optimism regarding the future of northern hemisphere rugby?
In sporting contests the teams with the most money and playing resources are generally the more successful over a period of time. Through innovation smaller resourced teams may have periods of success but over the long run the heftier teams generally prevail.
This is not the case in rugby. See image above for stats. England dwarf everyone else in terms of playing numbers and are a rich country, France have big numbers and are also flush with cash. Only South Africa of the southern hemisphere teams can match France in terms of numbers while still being well away from English numbers. None of the southern hemisphere nations can match England or France in terms of finances.
Therefore you would think England and France would consistently win world cups over southern hemisphere opposition, but we know this is not the case. Obviously, England and France are the only major nations that don’t have central contracting. They don’t have pyramid systems with their national sides at the top. Their clubs control the players and use them to their ends and don’t consider national requirements. Their leagues are over stocked with foreign-player-bed-blockers who don’t contribute to national success.
So, England and France are not set up to maximise their resources and be successful at national level. I personally thought this a grand state of affairs as it allowed Ireland, a relatively well organised country which does maximise its talent, to be successful against the larger countries on a regional basis.
However, this world cup has given me food for thought. What we are witnessing is the emergence of Argentina as a fourth southern hemisphere power. Next year they have a super 15 team. They have obviously improved enormously in the short period they have been in the 4 Nations. This upward curve will undoubtedly continue. They will play BNZ 20 times before Ireland are next scheduled to play them. They will probably beat NZ then before we do, and the myth of the NZ supermen will break for them, while we gaze on in stupefied reverence at the NZ mythical rugby men with 4 arms, 4 legs and 4 b*%&!cks.
I have no doubt that if Ireland were placed in the 4 Nations we too would make great strides and eventually beat NZ. Familiarity breeds contempt, Irish sides once held French sides on a pedestal and consequently lost badly every time we played them. Through the european cup we lost our reverence for them and now see no reason why we shouldn’t beat them.
The problem for Ireland is the 6 Nations is not preparing us for world cups. The structural problems within France and England means the level of competition does not approach southern hemisphere levels. Until this changes I think the northern hemisphere will continue to suck the hind tit to the southern hemisphere, one world cup by England, is all the northern hemisphere has to show despite its greater overall playing numbers and finances.
The above will not change without structural changes to the game in the northern hemisphere. The following could be done:
1. Condense 6 Nations into 5 consecutive weeks: This would replicate a world cup situation and be better preparation. The inevitable injuries would force the squad to be broadened and lesser players would be forced into high pressure games to sink or swim gaining great experience.
Crucially, trying to win such a competition with the same 15 or 20 players would be nigh impossible, therefore development of a full squad of 30 or more players would happen by design or default.
This would level the situation for France and England also, as their clubs couldn’t steal their players for 2 weekends, meaning they get a longer period together which should make them better and raise the competitive standard within the competition.
2. Implement bonus point scoring for 6 Nations results: Too many sides try to win their games by conservative means then try to rely on thumping Italy at home to win the competition on points difference. Bonus points may not be a big difference but would be a step in the right direction.
3. Ending of the Lions: the Lions is basically a huge financial handout to our southern hemisphere rivals which each one of them benefits from every 12 years. Therefore we are financing our own subjugation. I have detected some supporters beginning to lose interest in the Lions but a majority seem to still enjoy being setup to take a beating from the southern hemisphere every 4 years. They can only win a series once every 20 years when the home nation are particularly bad. Yawn!
4. [Pipe dream time]: Pro12 and Premiership amalgamate: based on the NFL, a franchise system is employed with no relegation. Non-performing teams are let go and new entrants are allowed if suitable. Emphasis is on quality, not quantity, therefore few games. NFL is the most profitable sports league in the world, there are only 16 regular games in the season, so only 8 home games. Less can be more. (Try explaining that to English and French owners with their 40 odd games a season). Crucially the English franchises will be controlled by the English Union therefore they can keep the club owners in line and dictate player policy to the clubs for the benefit of England.
It is unlikely the French would leave the Top 14, but they may in time join if they saw the new league was very successfully and anyway European competition would continue.
At the moment, anything that is good for England and France at national level (and specifically not their self interested club level), is also good for Ireland in that it will drive up competition levels to where they need to be.
I realise the structural changes mentioned above won’t happen and France and England will continue to not punch their weight at international level and consequently Ireland will not experience the level of competition that will make them competitive at world cups. Nor will the northern hemisphere overturn the southern hemisphere dominance of the world cup despite the northern hemisphere’s greater player base and financial resources.
So sit back and watch Argentina join the southern hemisphere elite passing Ireland and the rest of Europe by. Japan are also getting a super 15 team. Will they join the 4 Nations in the next 10 years and become that decade’s Argentina?
I hope you are all content with being a regional power and don't mind moderating your future world cup ambitions.
