RWC 2019

[Dave Cahill]

Pool allocation has been set for May 2017

[neill_m]

So will this year's Autumn Internationals will determine the rankings for the different seeding groups?

[Dave Cahill]

Between now and May 2017 we have three tests away to South Africa, two tests against New Zealand (one home, one in the US), tests against Australia and Canada and the 2017 6 Nations

[simonokeeffe]

as SA and NZ ranked far ahead of us am I right in saying those games are nothing to lose in terms of rankings? Or is that just NZ? And SA wolloping us 3 times would be bad?

[neill_m]

as SA and NZ ranked far ahead of us am I right in saying those games are nothing to lose in terms of rankings? Or is that just NZ? And SA wolloping us 3 times would be bad?

The big three are so far ahead, that defeats to them will have little/or no impact. However, if Ireland got a win in one of those games, would be a major boost. Same in reverse for the Canada game in Nov.

If the 6N in 2017 are included in determining the seedings, the teams are all relatively close to each other - so there would be definite movement either way from those games.

[R-Dog]

as SA and NZ ranked far ahead of us am I right in saying those games are nothing to lose in terms of rankings? Or is that just NZ? And SA wolloping us 3 times would be bad?

Its not the simplest system to understand but essentially.

Beating Teams ahead = Gain
Beating Teams Ahead Away = Big Gain
Loosing to teams Ahead = Little effect

Loosing to teams below = Loss
Loosing to teams below at Home = Big Loss
Beating teams below = Little Effect

Not sure how the call games in neutral venues like All Blacks in USA, WC has a special ratings adjustment

[R-Dog]

Unless we fall down to 9th and the 3rd pool we dont have too much to worry about.

Carlsberg have had a good hand in our last few draws and we haven't manage to make much of them so who knows.

[cormac]

as SA and NZ ranked far ahead of us am I right in saying those games are nothing to lose in terms of rankings? Or is that just NZ? And SA wolloping us 3 times would be bad?

Three defeats away to South Africa would have a zero impact on our rating. If we were to win one of the three tests, the best one to win from a rankings pov would be the last one.

[Fireworks]

as SA and NZ ranked far ahead of us am I right in saying those games are nothing to lose in terms of rankings? Or is that just NZ? And SA wolloping us 3 times would be bad?

Three defeats away to South Africa would have a zero impact on our rating. If we were to win one of the three tests, the best one to win from a rankings pov would be the last one.

Good point. TO extend the logic would it not be best to start a winning run against Australia.

[cormac]

Three defeats away to South Africa would have a zero impact on our rating. If we were to win one of the three tests, the best one to win from a rankings pov would be the last one.

Good point. TO extend the logic would it not be best to start a winning run against Australia.

At this point in time the Australia match in November (assuming we beat Canada) is the only one where our rating could be affected by a defeat before next year's 6N. Of course that could change if we were to win matches in South Africa or New Zealand's ratings plummeted before we play them.

[Oldschool]

Three defeats away to South Africa would have a zero impact on our rating. If we were to win one of the three tests, the best one to win from a rankings pov would be the last one.

Good point. TO extend the logic would it not be best to start a winning run against Australia.

At this point in time the Australia match in November (assuming we beat Canada) is the only one where our rating could be affected by a defeat before next year's 6N. Of course that could change if we were to win matches in South Africa or New Zealand's ratings plummeted before we play them.

Re SA and NZ which is the more likely given DC and RMcC retirements would you reckon.

[Dave Cahill]

as SA and NZ ranked far ahead of us am I right in saying those games are nothing to lose in terms of rankings? Or is that just NZ? And SA wolloping us 3 times would be bad?

Three defeats away to South Africa would have a zero impact on our rating. If we were to win one of the three tests, the best one to win from a rankings pov would be the last one.

I dont think thats the case. Three losses would result in our rating dropping three times. If we lose enough rating points and France were to pick up enough on their tour to Argentina we could lose a ranking place.

[cormac]

as SA and NZ ranked far ahead of us am I right in saying those games are nothing to lose in terms of rankings? Or is that just NZ? And SA wolloping us 3 times would be bad?

Three defeats away to South Africa would have a zero impact on our rating. If we were to win one of the three tests, the best one to win from a rankings pov would be the last one.

I dont think thats the case. Three losses would result in our rating dropping three times. If we lose enough rating points and France were to pick up enough on their tour to Argentina we could lose a ranking place.

We can't lose ranking points if we lose all three games in South Africa. Once you figure in their home advantage there's too big a gap.

[Xanthippe]

as SA and NZ ranked far ahead of us am I right in saying those games are nothing to lose in terms of rankings? Or is that just NZ? And SA wolloping us 3 times would be bad?

Three defeats away to South Africa would have a zero impact on our rating. If we were to win one of the three tests, the best one to win from a rankings pov would be the last one.

I dont think thats the case. Three losses would result in our rating dropping three times. If we lose enough rating points and France were to pick up enough on their tour to Argentina we could lose a ranking place.

Sorry Dave that's partially not right - if France were to beat Argentina they could overtake but there is no possible scenario where we can come home from South Africa with less ranking points than we currently have

South Africa are currently on 87.66 (plus 3.0 for home advantage) and we're on 80.33. Once there's more than 10 points between the sides the lower ranked side cannot lose any rankings points. We could lose each game 100 - 0 and still end the series on 80.33 points.

Btw, when is the France tour of Argentina? Can't find any fixtures listed anywhere - in fact the only fixture France appear to have before the 6 Nations is Australia in Stade de France.

[Dave Cahill]

On the 18th and 25th of June.

There is no reference to any 10 points difference/limit on the Rankings Explanation page on the World Rugby site or have I missed it somewhere?

[Xanthippe]

On the 18th and 25th of June.

There is no reference to any 10 points difference/limit on the Rankings Explanation page on the World Rugby site or have I missed it somewhere?

No sorry Dave you're absolutely right - it doesn't actually mention the 10 point difference anywhere but from years of calculating rankings before games you just come to know that 10 is the magic number. Have a look at this (I've reduced South Africa's ranking very slightly to illustrate the difference between being 9.99 or 10 points ahead)



Also, thanks for the France dates - Ultimate Rugby don't have them listed

[Dexter]

On the 18th and 25th of June.

There is no reference to any 10 points difference/limit on the Rankings Explanation page on the World Rugby site or have I missed it somewhere?

No sorry Dave you're absolutely right - it doesn't actually mention the 10 point difference anywhere but from years of calculating rankings before games you just come to know that 10 is the magic number. Have a look at this (I've reduced South Africa's ranking very slightly to illustrate the difference between being 9.99 or 10 points ahead)



Also, thanks for the France dates - Ultimate Rugby don't have them listed

Yes the 10 point differential definitely applied in the past. I remember seeing it written somewhere so it's strange it's not mentioned, unless it's been changed.

[jimbobjoe]

It's still there. They just don't seem to say it specifically in the text.

[neill_m]

France touring Argentina in the middle of the Top 14 playoffs - so will be missing a lot of players.

[simonokeeffe]

Eir sport, Setanta in old money, not the phone company, have the rights to 2019 world cup

Ireland games and knockouts to be on free tv too

Half their games wont be on their free channell going by previous rwc