The looking forward to the Lions Tour thread

[CiaranIrl]

Who and why??

Anybody who is starting for Ireland is going to think they have a good shot at the Lions, and its easy to make a case for them

Of the players I mentioned above

Front Row - Cronin is the only out there suggestion - he seems to have completly seen off Strauss at Leinster and its not a position of depth for the Lions -Hartley Best (although Gatland not a massive fan - see 2013), Owens, Ford, George
Second Row - Ryan is probably a leap too far but would definitely fit into the good Lions tourist category. Henderson and Dillane would be bolters (particularly Dillane) but again they fit the profile of bolters completely
Back Row - Every one of those 5 will fancy their chances - POM has dropped down the rankings because on onjury - at 2015 WC he would have been seen as nailed on imo
SH/OH - speak for themselves
Centres - Payne and Ringrose would be possible outside shots but having Farrell as defensive coach would help Payne no end and Ringrose again is a bolter - wopuld you be suprised if Ringrose took off in the 6N?
Back 3 - Kearney has huge experience, the others are generally starting for Ireland and offer threats to a varying level in a position that isn't the Lions strongest, and offer versatility - again Trimble in particular here might be a long shot but would fall into the same category as Ryan and strikes me that he would be a Gatland type player

In any case the point was that they will all believe they can get selected and will be striving for it - I think thats definitely the case - there is no delusion needed - soe of course would nbeed a massive 6N, but would believe they could deliver on that (especially in a team that appear to be on the rise)

Good post, and in fairness, you're right, they would absolutely have enough self belief to think they could have a massive 6 Nations.

However, you would have to be in a hell of a bubble not to think about the English/Welsh/Scottish rivals. There's a few positions where its plausible that no irish player will get selected, let alone our bench options.

Front Row: McGrath, Furlong & Best are likely. Healy has a chance because there is very poor depth elsewhere behind Vuinipola. Marler is very overrated, and seems to have attitude problems. Jenkins is about 50 years old now. Cronin has no chance whatsoever.
Second Row: Henderson has a chance because he's been having storming performances for a while, and because he covers 6 to International standard. I don't think Toner will get selected because of the depth across the nations. Itoje, Kruis and AW Jones are nailed on. Johnny Gray is an outstanding player that tends to be a bit dismissed around here. His performance vs Australia in the autumn was unbelievable. 24 takles, missed none. Scored a try. No penalties conceded. Dillane and Ryan have no chance. I
Back Row: Ludicrously competitive. O'Brien, Stander and Heaslip will all have a chance of joining some of Warburton, Faletau, Vuinipola, Haskell,Tipuiric - even Armitage, that Gatland might select just to p1$$ off the English. VDF & POM chances are remote. They would need to get ahead of the three likely Ireland starters, and then be so good that they get ahead of players who Gatland loves already.
Backs: Henshaw will go, and I think Zebo has a great chance. Ringrose could be a bolter if he has an unbelievable 6N. The Lions traditionally pick one or two very young players (like Earls in 09). I can't see Payne making it. He'll be injured for the start of the 6N, and I think he'll want to limit the nationalised home nations players. I don't think any of Trimble, Kearney or Earls will go. Again, just too much competition: Hogg, Watson, North, Nowell, Williams, Halfpenny etc.

[fourthirtythree]

I agree with your assessment Ciaran, I'd up VDF and POM's chances a little bit. Simply because I would expect O'Brien to be injured rather than not and one of them might then be in the shop window.

[Golf Man]

Who and why??

Anybody who is starting for Ireland is going to think they have a good shot at the Lions, and its easy to make a case for them

Of the players I mentioned above

Front Row - Cronin is the only out there suggestion - he seems to have completly seen off Strauss at Leinster and its not a position of depth for the Lions -Hartley Best (although Gatland not a massive fan - see 2013), Owens, Ford, George
Second Row - Ryan is probably a leap too far but would definitely fit into the good Lions tourist category. Henderson and Dillane would be bolters (particularly Dillane) but again they fit the profile of bolters completely
Back Row - Every one of those 5 will fancy their chances - POM has dropped down the rankings because on onjury - at 2015 WC he would have been seen as nailed on imo
SH/OH - speak for themselves
Centres - Payne and Ringrose would be possible outside shots but having Farrell as defensive coach would help Payne no end and Ringrose again is a bolter - wopuld you be suprised if Ringrose took off in the 6N?
Back 3 - Kearney has huge experience, the others are generally starting for Ireland and offer threats to a varying level in a position that isn't the Lions strongest, and offer versatility - again Trimble in particular here might be a long shot but would fall into the same category as Ryan and strikes me that he would be a Gatland type player

In any case the point was that they will all believe they can get selected and will be striving for it - I think thats definitely the case - there is no delusion needed - soe of course would nbeed a massive 6N, but would believe they could deliver on that (especially in a team that appear to be on the rise)

Good post, and in fairness, you're right, they would absolutely have enough self belief to think they could have a massive 6 Nations.

However, you would have to be in a hell of a bubble not to think about the English/Welsh/Scottish rivals. There's a few positions where its plausible that no irish player will get selected, let alone our bench options.

Front Row: McGrath, Furlong & Best are likely. Healy has a chance because there is very poor depth elsewhere behind Vuinipola. Marler is very overrated, and seems to have attitude problems. Jenkins is about 50 years old now. Cronin has no chance whatsoever.
Second Row: Henderson has a chance because he's been having storming performances for a while, and because he covers 6 to International standard. I don't think Toner will get selected because of the depth across the nations. Itoje, Kruis and AW Jones are nailed on. Johnny Gray is an outstanding player that tends to be a bit dismissed around here. His performance vs Australia in the autumn was unbelievable. 24 takles, missed none. Scored a try. No penalties conceded. Dillane and Ryan have no chance. I
Back Row: Ludicrously competitive. O'Brien, Stander and Heaslip will all have a chance of joining some of Warburton, Faletau, Vuinipola, Haskell,Tipuiric - even Armitage, that Gatland might select just to p1$$ off the English. VDF & POM chances are remote. They would need to get ahead of the three likely Ireland starters, and then be so good that they get ahead of players who Gatland loves already.
Backs: Henshaw will go, and I think Zebo has a great chance. Ringrose could be a bolter if he has an unbelievable 6N. The Lions traditionally pick one or two very young players (like Earls in 09). I can't see Payne making it. He'll be injured for the start of the 6N, and I think he'll want to limit the nationalised home nations players. I don't think any of Trimble, Kearney or Earls will go. Again, just too much competition: Hogg, Watson, North, Nowell, Williams, Halfpenny etc.

Wouldn't disagree with much of that - I too would think that POM would have higher chance than you seem to. I actually wouldn't be suprised to see rotation in the backrow for the 6N. Armitage - not a chance. But selecting probably 6 backrowers will be tough => I actually think Heaslip will miss out - Vunipola deserves to go and I just can't see Gatland not picking Faletau (who kind of deserves to go as well). It will be interesting to see what Gatland does on the back row - hard to justify at the moment that he would go with 3 Welsh and 3 combined for England/Ireland (Warburton/Tipuric/Faletau/SOB/Vunipola/Haskell or Stander) but he absolutely could do it - a non Welsh back row selection (POM/SOB/Heaslip/Stander/Vunipola/Haskell) actually looks better to me

[TerenureJim]

Sorry GM but Heaslip is a proven test Lion, has the Wolverine blood, and has out played his probably opposite number for NZ in Kieran Reid over two very close games where in the second test if we have a bigger squad depth and better reffing we possibly win so he's almost certain to be on the plane and IMO is an outside bet to captain.

[CiaranIrl]

I'd expect about 9 or 10 Irish representatives out of the 36ish. More later to cover injuries.

Something like McGrath, Furlong, Best, Henderson, Stander, O'Brien, Murray, Sexton, Henshaw, Zebo.

Healy, Ringrose and Heaslip would bring it up to 13. Anything more than that would really surprise me. 2009s grand slam 14 was a record for Irish representatives in an initial squad. That was a time when England were poor and when the manager wasn't inherently biased.

[CiaranIrl]

Sorry GM but Heaslip is a proven test Lion, has the Wolverine blood, and has out played his probably opposite number for NZ in Kieran Reid over two very close games where in the second test if we have a bigger squad depth and better reffing we possibly win so he's almost certain to be on the plane and IMO is an outside bet to captain.

There's two very different arguments here. 1. Is Heaslip deserving. 2. Will Gatland select him.

Answer 1: Yes, obviously
Answer 2: I doubt it

[Oldschool]

Sorry GM but Heaslip is a proven test Lion, has the Wolverine blood, and has out played his probably opposite number for NZ in Kieran Reid over two very close games where in the second test if we have a bigger squad depth and better reffing we possibly win so he's almost certain to be on the plane and IMO is an outside bet to captain.

There's two very different arguments here. 1. Is Heaslip deserving. 2. Will Gatland select him.

Answer 1: Yes, obviously
Answer 2: I doubt it

Injury permitting you've nailed it.

[Golf Man]

Sorry GM but Heaslip is a proven test Lion, has the Wolverine blood, and has out played his probably opposite number for NZ in Kieran Reid over two very close games where in the second test if we have a bigger squad depth and better reffing we possibly win so he's almost certain to be on the plane and IMO is an outside bet to captain.

I agree with everything until the bolded part (FWIW I think only AWJ is realistically a bnet outside of teh current E/W/I captains - and I almost go for him myself)

There will probably be 12 between second and back rows - as per 2013

5 locks - one definitely and possibly 2 will also be able to offer cover at 6 (Itoje for definite and possibly Henderson)
7 back rowers in an extremely competitive fight

6: Stander/POM/SOB/Robshaw/Wood/Haskell/Warburton/Moriarty/Lydiate (possibly out)/Faletau/Barclay
7: SOB/JVDF/Haskell/Warburton/Tipuric/Barclay
8: Heaslip/Stander/SOB/Vunipola/Hughes/Faletau

There are a couple in there that are very unlikley (Moriarty and Hughes in particular but both likely to get good game time in 6N) - but that is still 16 names.

With regard to No.8 Vunipola I think is nailed on - and its very hard to argue against that - been outstanding for England, and offers something taht no other backrower does (to teh same extent anyway - SOB is probably closest

If Vunipola is nailed on then I can't see Heaslip and Faletau being picked. I think it will be something along the lines of

Stander/Haskell/SOB/Warburton/Tipuric/Vunipola/Faletau

Swap Heaslip for Faletau and its no weaker and certainly on very recent evidence its better - however Faletau is proven as well (as a Lion also) and a real Gatland favourite

At the moment I think the odds would favour Vunipola and Faletau being slected ahead of Heaslip - and if they are its very difficult to see him making it (strangely if they do it possibly opens up the selection a bit for Stander)

I do think that Tipuric and POM have a slight advantage in regard to their playing styles - they are different players to the alternatives in their positiosn which could well help them (probably more Tipuric than POM)

[Golf Man]

I'd expect about 9 or 10 Irish representatives out of the 36ish. More later to cover injuries.

Something like McGrath, Furlong, Best, Henderson, Stander, O'Brien, Murray, Sexton, Henshaw, Zebo.

Healy, Ringrose and Heaslip would bring it up to 13. Anything more than that would really surprise me. 2009s grand slam 14 was a record for Irish representatives in an initial squad. That was a time when England were poor and when the manager wasn't inherently biased.

Thats pretty spot on I'd say => Healy has decent chance as options are pretty limited there

[simonokeeffe]

whatever chance Hartley had of captaincy is gone

[erskinechilders]

Is it just me or has Hartley thrown his whole participation in the Lions into doubt with that red card? How on earth can Gatland trust him to remain calm in the inferno atmosphere of NZ? Especially with Kiwis in Hartley's ear day and night. With Best and George and AN.Other there I think that Hartley has really just shot himself in the foot.

[simonokeeffe]

Is it just me or has Hartley thrown his whole participation in the Lions into doubt with that red card? How on earth can Gatland trust him to remain calm in the inferno atmosphere of NZ? Especially with Kiwis in Hartley's ear day and night. With Best and George and AN.Other there I think that Hartley has really just shot himself in the foot.

if he gets banned for 8 weeks or more sic he starts to miss 6n game which raises doubts over him playing in 6n let alone touring

wasnt an 8 week offence but if they take his record into account he'll be sent to Devil's Island/potentially have his ban doubled

[LeRouxIsPHat]

That kind of thing has been said after several incidents now! Wasn't the Barnes incident before the last Lions tour after he'd been picked to go? May be remembering that wrong but if it was then maybe Gatland wouldn't be a fan anyway after he let him down before.

But even aside from the incident, I don't think he's particularly good. I'd say he was at his best about 5 years ago and as well as England have done this year I wouldn't have said he was one of the most influential players. That said, not too many hookers around.

[simonokeeffe]

That kind of thing has been said after several incidents now! Wasn't the Barnes incident before the last Lions tour after he'd been picked to go? May be remembering that wrong but if it was then maybe Gatland wouldn't be a fan anyway after he let him down before.

But even aside from the incident, I don't think he's particularly good. I'd say he was at his best about 5 years ago and as well as England have done this year I wouldn't have said he was one of the most influential players. That said, not too many hookers around.

Yeah Barnes was in Prem final
Hartleys best defence will be hes only been banned once before from a European game, for elbowing Best
The headbutting, ref abuse, gouging (Johnny O'Connor) were in the Premiership and he bit Ferris in the 6n

Jones and Gatty by extension may ne hoping his ban forces their hand eg he has no games before 6n so George comes in and does well and he plays no/little 6n

Not to derail this into 6n stuff but Jones's options are eat humble pie and make Robshaw skipper or or dump a lot of pressure on Itoje as England's first black captain (?) and I think second youngest ever captain

If Hartley were not to tour hooker is one injury away from being a serious weakness

[LeRouxIsPHat]

I was thinking that it's the perfect excuse to go with Itoje as captain now.

[simonokeeffe]

I was thinking that it's the perfect excuse to go with Itoje as captain now.

that its a lot of pressure to heap on him ?

or you mean that hes young etc

[LeRouxIsPHat]

[Fan with smartphone]

In light of Hartley's entirely predictable cheap shot i'd just like to point out how well Sean Cronin is playing and how he actually y'know does stuff. I don't see an issue with his hooking/scrummaging any more and whilst lineout is still a little erratic it generally seems to go ok when Toner plays. His general play is where he's got a massive edge over anyone else. You're gonna need that against these kiwi teams.

[Ruckedtobits]

He is not a strong scrumager and his throwing lacks consistently. He is superb in broken play possession and a very good tackler on right shoulder and competent on left side.

I'm delighted he's ours and always love seeing him come into a game and anticipate his injection of pace and excitement, but find it difficult to conceive how he would make a Lions Squad.

[Fan with smartphone]

I think he's under appreciated. I also think he could scare the New Zealanders with the things he can do. Dylan Hartley scares nobody only his own. They'll do well to name 3 better than Cronin.