The looking forward to the Lions Tour thread

[simonokeeffe]

I wouldn't have Vunipola in the 23. I get dropping O'Mahony, Lions lost the first test at the Breakdown above all else, its harsh but sensible. They won the second despite Vunipola. NZ wouldn't tolerate that level of shitness.

Exactly

Vunipola was at best a razor thin call over McGrath and he had a meltdown in the last game

[Fan with smartphone]

Even though it's not a neon lights selection, for this game I'd argue that's a better New Zealand back line than the one I had milling around my head. They can go hard at the 10-12 with Laumape or Savea, but they'll be able to go out the back door too and have options both sides of the ruck with the 2 Barretts. Dagg gives them a winger with a full back's thinking too, which probably does them no harm. I don't think he has been playing overly well, and it's a selection slightly more about backfield defence as RTB says, but no-one else gives them that.

Defensively there may be an issue with their midfield and particularly Laumape alright. Still, I'd say they'll aim to look after him with the back row to cut down the space for the gaps which Sexton will be trying to create. They've had an advance warning there.

Hansen has talked about it being like a World Cup final. When the played Australia in wet conditions then, it wasn't super rugby style they played. It was nailing the basics and going from there. Carter's drop goal put them more than one score up and they closed it out. I don't think the all blacks are just as good as they were then, so this game looks tight enough to me.

Best and McGrath unlucky for me and I think they would have added something. Although McGrath will be a good player to come on if the game is in any way in the balance. He will improve the lions team. It doesn't particularly stack up to me to go with the exact same bench they didn't use much of last week though. Henderson wouldn't have let them down, but there you go. The big disappointment is for Henshaw though. That is not good news.

[RAILWAY1]

While it would be great to win this match and the series from a purely selfish perspective I only hope that all the Irish players come out OK and return in one piece for the coming season.

[Ruckedtobits]

Expect to see the impact of Mike Cron's work on the NZ scrum and maul on Saturday. Also expect to see NZ use short-side in attack and use aerial route to bring Savea and Barrett J. into the game.
Expect to see NZ mid-field and back-row, in particular, look for choke tackles on Lions to get more scrums.
Expect to see Lions front-row in trouble by about 5/6th scrum, or 35 minutes, whichever comes first.
Expect to see Lions look for touchline as defensive exit.
Expect to see Lions try to attack NZ throw. Expect to see NZ use 4 or 5 man lineouts to counteract Lions attack of their ball.
Lions must double-team every NZ ball carrier for at least the initial 25 minutes.
Lions must get back three involved in wide attack lines.
Lions must spring O'Brien and Falateau where they are not expected i.e. 3rd channel, or secondary ball back inside.

NZ can win with 40% possession. Lions need a minimum of 55% possession and territory to have a sniff.

[suisse]

I don't see any outcome other than a 15+ NZ win. I genuinely think the Lions go lucky last week. Or, at least, they looked at the scoreboard and wondered how the hell they weren't further behind when Falateu barged over where Dagger shouldn't have been. The red card (justified), removing Jerome Kaino, the missed kicks and the atrocious weather. I still can't believe they took off Kaino. The conditions were so bad that NZ must have figured it was as good a day as any to have a back sent off. Keep Kaino on, make it a filthy attritional forward battle and the series is over. If the weather is better tomorrow and NZ keep 15 men on the pitch, they'll win and win slowing up. The first test was a more accurate reflection I feel. I don't know if it was luck last Saturday. The Lions did so well to get back in the game but they were awful on many aspects before Falateu scored. I don't think this was a master plan. More like the snatched a try from nowhere and then suddenly realised this is a game.

[Hippo]

The forecast for tomorrow is terrible. I suspect NZ will win, simply because they really really have to, but I doubt they'll win pulling up.

[brenno]

NZ obvious favourites but Lions at 7-2 is a good bet especially if it p1sses rain and turns into a slugfest. With a rookie 15 and a 12 with limited experience, NZ may be more vulnerable than for a long time. First 15-20'minutes will be a war, if Lions survive that all to play for.

[outcast eddie]

All conventional wisdom says NZ are a unbeatable and formidable team but I can't get away from the thought that maybe an era ended in the past few months and we are witnessing a new period in world rugby...maybe.

[neiliog93]

To make a reasonably objective case for the Lions, looking at AB weaknesses:

Dagg is a poor player by All Black standards and hasn't played consistently well in 2-3 years. Jordie Barrett is outrageously talented but has just turned 20 and was poor for the Hurricanes against the Lions. Looked uncomfortable in the Hurricanes' few tight games in Super Rugby too. Savea is slightly overweight and has been off form for two years; his good try-scoring record even in that time is mainly down to playing for a dominant, ball-handling team against historically poor opposition in the rugby championship. He's incredibly strong physically and still represents a threat, but like George North, isn't the player of 2-3 years ago, despite still being young.

Laumape and Lienert-Brown are class, fair enough. At 10 though, Beauden's goal kicking still lets him down; that could be crucial. Obviously their 9 and back five of the pack are world class, but I think they're relatively weak at hooker and loosehead; Joe Moody is pretty average generally and vulnerable at the scrum. Taylor, for all his flourish in the loose, doesn't have the same force as Coles in the tight.

[johng]

Laumape and Lienert-Brown may well be class, but they are young, relatively inexperienced and have very little experience defending together. Add in Jordie as you have said and that's half the outside backs with f all gametime together an international level.

Beaudie, Jordie, Laumape and Savea however are all hurricanes.....

[nc6000]

I can't say I was too enthusiastic about this series before it began but I've watched all the game so far and I'd love to see them win tomorrow.

I'm on holidays and never thought it would come down to a 3rd test decider. I'm looking forward to heading to the pub for 8AM tomorrow.

[outcast eddie]

NZ looked pretty average, the reputation has been dented.

[Peg Leg]

How much did the sponsors save by not having to pay any win bonus?

[Ruckedtobits]

Expect to see the impact of Mike Cron's work on the NZ scrum and maul on Saturday. Check
Also expect to see NZ use short-side in attack and use aerial route to bring Savea and Barrett J. into the game. Check and check
Expect to see NZ mid-field and back-row, in particular, look for choke tackles on Lions to get more scrums. Did not happen
Expect to see Lions front-row in trouble by about 5/6th scrum, or 35 minutes, whichever comes first. Check, but NZ could not continue dominance in 2nd half.
Expect to see Lions look for touchline as defensive exit. Check and it worked with three NZ lineouts lost
Expect to see Lions try to attack NZ throw. Expect to see NZ use 4 or 5 man lineouts to counteract Lions attack of their ball. Check and Wrong. NZ used fast line-outs instead
Lions must double-team every NZ ball carrier for at least the initial 25 minutes. Check but NZ still broke gain line
Lions must get back three involved in wide attack lines. Check
Lions must spring O'Brien and Falateau where they are not expected i.e. 3rd channel, or secondary ball back inside. Did not happen.

NZ can win with 40% possession. Lions need a minimum of 55% possession and territory to have a sniff. Check and check, Lions did better than 55%. Ergo, the draw

So, where did NZ go wrong. Barrett missed kicks. Savea butchered an early try with a sloppy knock-on. The NZ team visibly lost confidence throughout the 3rd Quarter and by the end were playing on instinct, without their usual expectation of success.

Well done Lions.....and Gatland and his Coaches. Surprising final outcome and definitely, the Lions gain more from the result in rugby terms. NZ get the money.

[Peg Leg]

Any update on O'Brien?

[Dave Cahill]

So, where did NZ go wrong.

Forced to play a game of Rugby Union where the laws of Rugby Union were properly applied it turns out that they aren't as good at Rugby Union as they are at Super Rugby.

[bonzo]

Sexton unbeaten in 3 starts vs BNZ this season...

[simonokeeffe]

Any update on O'Brien?

Am hoping for a shoulder stinger

NZ looked pretty average, the reputation has been dented.

It kind of has, well with decent NH referees
Kicking an issue going forward

[cormac]

Sexton unbeaten in 3 starts vs BNZ this season...

he started four times against NZ this season.

[bonzo]

Sexton unbeaten in 3 starts vs BNZ this season...

he started four times against NZ this season.

Ha blocked the Dublin one out there . He's still unbeaten in the other 3