The looking forward to the Lions Tour thread

[ronk]

Pick Ford and Sexton as outhalves, Farrell as centre and cover. Don't bring a 3rd unless Carbery gets thrown on as a dirt tracking bolter

[CiaranIrl]

I can't see Gatty not bringing Biggar. I mean, if he selected three other guys ahead of him it would really undermine Biggar's confidence for Wales and the player-coach relationship going ahead to the 2019 RWC. It's why national coaches shouldn't be allowed to coach the Lions.

He didn't select a Welsh out half last time around...

[Oldschool]

I can't see Gatty not bringing Biggar. I mean, if he selected three other guys ahead of him it would really undermine Biggar's confidence for Wales and the player-coach relationship going ahead to the 2019 RWC. It's why national coaches shouldn't be allowed to coach the Lions.

Agree no way should Gatland be coaching the Lions, he's not even from the NH - Can of worms just opened

[munster#1]

I can't see Gatty not bringing Biggar. I mean, if he selected three other guys ahead of him it would really undermine Biggar's confidence for Wales and the player-coach relationship going ahead to the 2019 RWC. It's why national coaches shouldn't be allowed to coach the Lions.

Agree no way should Gatland be coaching the Lions, he's not even from the NH - Can of worms just opened

Very true, sure how could a SH coach ever buy into the jersey. I can't see any SH coach ever becoming a successful Lions coach.

[hugonaut]

If it were any other coach does anyone think Faletau would make the squad? He has played bugger all rugby and started even less

Agreed, thought he'd be a certainty but he hasn't got back up to speed yet and he won't play big enough games to justify selection with the competition that's there.

At this juncture, it'd be a staggering decision to bring him. He has been consistently excellent for Wales up to this season, but this one has been basically a scratch for him.

He has hardly played any rugby – 520 mins in total, between club and country [source: http://www.itsrugby.co.uk/player-18585.html ] and what he has produced is a long way off his best.

Beyond that, he can't get into a Welsh backrow with an openside playing blindside and a blindside playing No8 very ordinarily. Moriarty is full of p*ss and vinegar and a good tackler, but as a No8 he's not even one dimensional.

To be honest, I find it bizarre that so many people are overlooking Heaslip on the back of a 2016 World Player of the Year nomination! Never fails to surprise me how people's attitude towards him completely blinds them to his abilities and performances – double figure tackles in every game he played [a total of 52 made/1 missed], an average of over 41 metres made/game, over 22 possessions/game, one of the top offloaders in the tournament [behind Picamoles, Nakaitaci and Vakatawa] and a decent if unspectacular lineout source [8 wins/0 steals].

He was also the only No8 who was able to keep Louis Picamoles to anything like a quiet game in the championship. I thought that Picamoles was outstandingly the dominant player in this year's edition, with an average of 72+m/game, an average metres/carry of 5+m, an average of 4 offloads and 5 defenders beaten [holy smokes] and an average 13/2 tackle count. Against Ireland, all those numbers [bar the tackles made] fell like a stone: 34 metres made, 2.83m/carry, 5 passes, 2 offloads, 0 defenders beaten, 0 clean breaks

Now that's not all down to Heaslip, but he was Ireland's leading tackler on the day [15/0], had 33 metres made, 1.94m/carry, 6 passes, 1 offload, 2 defenders beaten and 1 clean break. He's the only No8 who gave Picamoles a run for his money all championship. It'd be bizarre and counter-productive to overlook him, in my book.

Sean O'Brien is the one who should be looking over his shoulder – not producing tackles, turnovers or metres at previous levels, bar the game against the Scots.

[Golf Man]

It'll be a close run thing for Faletau/Heaslip

On this seasons form there is no contest
On preference from the coach there is no contest
On previous form its much of a much

Faletau does have the flexibility to play 6 though which will definitely stand to him. He has been injured a lot so think you are being slightly harsh on his performance. I've no idea how they are viewed from the squad as whole - its hard to see anyone other than Vunipola starting if fit, so that kind of thing will come into play (I'd expect either of them to playing primarily midweek, but possibly to slot straight into starting 15)

It will only be two No.8's though and Vunipola will obviously be one of them - ultimately I think Gatland will fall back on what he knows best, as the vast majority of coaches do

Agree on SOB by the way but think he (a bit like Faletau) will be selected on previous performances as much as anything else (flexibility obviously helps him as well)

[Ruckedtobits]

I find that the overlooking of Welsh Loose-head Rob Evans is surprising. He had an excellent Tournament and the Welsh scrum was never bullied. He plays for huge minutes in each game and is a big unit. Granted he hasn't had the headlines of Vunipola, McGrath or Marler, but he has been a very important cog in the Welsh pack's performances, particularly against Ireland, England and France.

For me he's on a par with McGrath as a potential starter, with Vunipola only a bencher.

Scott Williams is the equivalent player among the Welsh backs. Plays 12 or 13 with equal competence, has pace and strength and could be an excellent foil for Davies or Henshaw. I don't rate Farrell as one of the best 12's in the Tournament and he goes as back-up 10 to Sexton. Certainly don't see him in same team as Sexton.

[Oldschool]

If it were any other coach does anyone think Faletau would make the squad? He has played bugger all rugby and started even less

Agreed, thought he'd be a certainty but he hasn't got back up to speed yet and he won't play big enough games to justify selection with the competition that's there.

At this juncture, it'd be a staggering decision to bring him. He has been consistently excellent for Wales up to this season, but this one has been basically a scratch for him.

He has hardly played any rugby – 520 mins in total, between club and country [source: http://www.itsrugby.co.uk/player-18585.html ] and what he has produced is a long way off his best.

Beyond that, he can't get into a Welsh backrow with an openside playing blindside and a blindside playing No8 very ordinarily. Moriarty is full of p*ss and vinegar and a good tackler, but as a No8 he's not even one dimensional.

To be honest, I find it bizarre that so many people are overlooking Heaslip on the back of a 2016 World Player of the Year nomination! Never fails to surprise me how people's attitude towards him completely blinds them to his abilities and performances – double figure tackles in every game he played [a total of 52 made/1 missed], an average of over 41 metres made/game, over 22 possessions/game, one of the top offloaders in the tournament [behind Picamoles, Nakaitaci and Vakatawa] and a decent if unspectacular lineout source [8 wins/0 steals].

He was also the only No8 who was able to keep Louis Picamoles to anything like a quiet game in the championship. I thought that Picamoles was outstandingly the dominant player in this year's edition, with an average of 72+m/game, an average metres/carry of 5+m, an average of 4 offloads and 5 defenders beaten [holy smokes] and an average 13/2 tackle count. Against Ireland, all those numbers [bar the tackles made] fell like a stone: 34 metres made, 2.83m/carry, 5 passes, 2 offloads, 0 defenders beaten, 0 clean breaks

Now that's not all down to Heaslip, but he was Ireland's leading tackler on the day [15/0], had 33 metres made, 1.94m/carry, 6 passes, 1 offload, 2 defenders beaten and 1 clean break. He's the only No8 who gave Picamoles a run for his money all championship. It'd be bizarre and counter-productive to overlook him, in my book.

Sean O'Brien is the one who should be looking over his shoulder – not producing tackles, turnovers or metres at previous levels, bar the game against the Scots.

Heaslip - You've raised a very complex question.
The eight (coincidence?) wonder of the modern world.
There's at least one thesis in the answer to your question.
However the simple answer is that "there are none so blind as those that don't want to see".
A good example of the mindset is the narrative that Stander is a better no.8 than Heaslip.
This is simply not the case and last Saturday made the point forcefully.
As another quote goes "he might have been thought/deemed a great international no. 8 had he not played there".
To be fair that's only his first full run at 8 against a top team.
However, what works at provincial level does not always work at international.
Both Stander and Vunipola were both closed down last Saturday. They are similar in style.
Heaslip, in comparison, has a much more rounded skill set and you never see him closed down.
Gatland likes biff, bash, bang rugby (warrenball).
Heaslip is a Rolls Royce 8 - you don't use a Rolls as a Dodgem car.

[munster#1]

The biggest issue with Heaslip is that he is a one position player.
For any one position player to get selected the have to be first choice, possibly 2nd choice depending on position, or much better than all utility players.

Stander if fit is likely to travel as a 6/8, and will probably be a bench option.

Is Heaslip the best 8 of the four nations? Probably not at the moment.
He is probably in a shoot out for the mid week team with a few options.

Hopefully he travels, but I don't see him as a guaranteed tourist.
The next few weeks will give him a shot if he is fit to play.

[paddyor]

I find that the overlooking of Welsh Loose-head Rob Evans is surprising. He had an excellent Tournament and the Welsh scrum was never bullied. He plays for huge minutes in each game and is a big unit. Granted he hasn't had the headlines of Vunipola, McGrath or Marler, but he has been a very important cog in the Welsh pack's performances, particularly against Ireland, England and France.

For me he's on a par with McGrath as a potential starter, with Vunipola only a bencher.

Scott Williams is the equivalent player among the Welsh backs. Plays 12 or 13 with equal competence, has pace and strength and could be an excellent foil for Davies or Henshaw. I don't rate Farrell as one of the best 12's in the Tournament and he goes as back-up 10 to Sexton. Certainly don't see him in same team as Sexton.

It's a fair point re Evans. But I suppose there is a perception that he's not really able to attack or put pressure on the TH and that the Irish and English rep-lacements are both better scrummagers than him. I think his best bet is injury.

Not convinced by Scott Williams at all. He was brought in to freshen up the Welsh attack and hasn't really done that. Doesn't carry much and doesn't seem to get on the ball that much either. He is by one metric the worst performing starting centre in the Lions. This site here uses the opta stats and weights things like carrys for position (e.g. back 3 - metres run *.5 etc). I don't know all the rules but even if you don't agree with it, it's the same for all players and every player in theory plays the same teams so it's fair enough. You can also check thru the stats from scrum by clicking on the player. I don't think Gatland is a fan of Williams and has avoided picking him for as long as possible.

I don't Gatland will care all that much for Farrell at 12. It's not his thing, it's Jones. He might entertain the English press with a smaller game but it'll be back to his way for the tests.

[Golf Man]

The biggest issue with Heaslip is that he is a one position player.
For any one position player to get selected the have to be first choice, possibly 2nd choice depending on position, or much better than all utility players.

Stander if fit is likely to travel as a 6/8, and will probably be a bench option.

Is Heaslip the best 8 of the four nations? Probably not at the moment.
He is probably in a shoot out for the mid week team with a few options.

Hopefully he travels, but I don't see him as a guaranteed tourist.
The next few weeks will give him a shot if he is fit to play.

Good summation - and this rationale will likely apply to selections outside of the front row and half backs

It will work against Heaslip (and Kearney if people believe him to be in the mix)and work for SOB and someone like Payne. The blindside option is a bit of an outlier though - Itoje, Barclay, Warburton and Stander all played 4 games at least at 6, but its not their primary position. Robshaw would probably have played for England but don't really see Gatland selecting him after he didn't in 2013 and Lydiate is gone for the season.

POM is in a pretty good position as a specialist 6, considering his injuries. A lot depends (for a couple of the Irish players) on his approach to openside - I reckon Gatlands instinct will be to go back to Warburton there - probably increases POMs chances and lessens SOBs

[Golf Man]

I find that the overlooking of Welsh Loose-head Rob Evans is surprising. He had an excellent Tournament and the Welsh scrum was never bullied. He plays for huge minutes in each game and is a big unit. Granted he hasn't had the headlines of Vunipola, McGrath or Marler, but he has been a very important cog in the Welsh pack's performances, particularly against Ireland, England and France.

For me he's on a par with McGrath as a potential starter, with Vunipola only a bencher.

Scott Williams is the equivalent player among the Welsh backs. Plays 12 or 13 with equal competence, has pace and strength and could be an excellent foil for Davies or Henshaw. I don't rate Farrell as one of the best 12's in the Tournament and he goes as back-up 10 to Sexton. Certainly don't see him in same team as Sexton.

It's a fair point re Evans. But I suppose there is a perception that he's not really able to attack or put pressure on the TH and that the Irish and English rep-lacements are both better scrummagers than him. I think his best bet is injury.

Not convinced by Scott Williams at all. He was brought in to freshen up the Welsh attack and hasn't really done that. Doesn't carry much and doesn't seem to get on the ball that much either. He is by one metric the worst performing starting centre in the Lions. This site here uses the opta stats and weights things like carrys for position (e.g. back 3 - metres run *.5 etc). I don't know all the rules but even if you don't agree with it, it's the same for all players and every player in theory plays the same teams so it's fair enough. You can also check thru the stats from scrum by clicking on the player. I don't think Gatland is a fan of Williams and has avoided picking him for as long as possible.

I don't Gatland will care all that much for Farrell at 12. It's not his thing, it's Jones. He might entertain the English press with a smaller game but it'll be back to his way for the tests.

Second playmaker isn't traditionally his thing but not sure he has had many options at 12 with Wales for the last 6-7 years tbh. That said I don't see him going for a lightweight 13 outside a playmaker 12 ala England. Wouldn't be surprised to see Farrell/Henshaw tried

[OTT]

Lots of different convos going on so here is a bit going in and out of them.

Gatland selected the the whole Welsh starting 15 (plus a few others) except for Biggar in 2013 it would be a serious snub if he missed out again. So I reckon Sexton, Biggar and Farrell will go.

Henshaw at 12 has proved he can play the Gatty way so I think he will defo go and has a good chance of making the test side (especially considering Roberts the other Gatty favourite crash ball king looks so out of sorts). I hope he comes back in one piece if he is selected he will be in for some serious punishment.

I think Marler is probably the weak point in the English team. If you stuck any of the other Nations starting looseheads (plus Healy) in that English side they would improve it imo. He looks like he would be a s%&t tourist (ie much closer to being a Mark Regan then a Simon Zebo) as well unless he turned out to be a Mike Phillips who only appears to be a complete knob but has the lolz outside matches.

I think Gatland will go with Vunipola and Felatau at 8 and Stander covering 6 & 8. It would be very hard on Jamie to lose out to Felatau but I imagine Gatland will lean that way. Selfishly, as a Leinster and Irish fan it would benefit me hugely if he did miss out with next season in mind.

I am not sure if he brings SOB, four years ago he should have been in the test team but Gatland kept leaving him out until he had to pick him through injuries for the final test. His form is not as good as then so I don't see how Gatland would have a higher appreciation for him then his previous low one.

[LeRouxIsPHat]

The only thing I'd say about SOB (and I wouldn't select him myself) is that the choice of 7s isn't great. I don't think there's any standout there, I'd probably go with Warburton but he hasn't even been playing there.

[Golf Man]

Lots of different convos going on so here is a bit going in and out of them.

Gatland selected the the whole Welsh starting 15 (plus a few others) except for Biggar in 2013 it would be a serious snub if he missed out again. So I reckon Sexton, Biggar and Farrell will go.

Henshaw at 12 has proved he can play the Gatty way so I think he will defo go and has a good chance of making the test side (especially considering Roberts the other Gatty favourite crash ball king looks so out of sorts). I hope he comes back in one piece if he is selected he will be in for some serious punishment.

I think Marler is probably the weak point in the English team. If you stuck any of the other Nations starting looseheads (plus Healy) in that English side they would improve it imo. He looks like he would be a s%&t tourist (ie much closer to being a Mark Regan then a Simon Zebo) as well unless he turned out to be a Mike Phillips who only appears to be a complete knob but has the lolz outside matches.

I think Gatland will go with Vunipola and Felatau at 8 and Stander covering 6 & 8. It would be very hard on Jamie to lose out to Felatau but I imagine Gatland will lean that way. Selfishly, as a Leinster and Irish fan it would benefit me hugely if he did miss out with next season in mind.

I am not sure if he brings SOB, four years ago he should have been in the test team but Gatland kept leaving him out until he had to pick him through injuries for the final test. His form is not as good as then so I don't see how Gatland would have a higher appreciation for him then his previous low one.

Your selection of OHs is probably how it will go
Agree on Henshaw - centre is not exactly a position of strength and Gatland will likely want at least one bosher there (wouldn't rule out Teo on that basis)
Marler - not sure that he is a weak point really - its between Healy, Evans and Marler for the last spot though I reckon. Don't know what he would be like as a tourist, and Gatland has indicated himself taht the close calls at the end, taht kind of thing will be important
Agree on No 8 and in fairness Faletau is class - wopuld have no issue with a fit Faletau starting if needed - an area of strength in general
Not sure Gatland had a low opinion of him? Warburton was captain and was always going to start at 7. The only selection that surprised me was choosing Lydiate over SOB on the bench for the first test. Ultimately he did produce for Gatland which will count for a lot. Assuming he doesn't go with a huge wildcard then the options available to him at 7 are Warburton, Tipuric, SOB, Haskell, VDF, Watson. I find it hard to see him not picking SOB tbh, although whether he gets in the team is another thing

[Oldschool]

Lots of different convos going on so here is a bit going in and out of them.

Gatland selected the the whole Welsh starting 15 (plus a few others) except for Biggar in 2013 it would be a serious snub if he missed out again. So I reckon Sexton, Biggar and Farrell will go.

Henshaw at 12 has proved he can play the Gatty way so I think he will defo go and has a good chance of making the test side (especially considering Roberts the other Gatty favourite crash ball king looks so out of sorts). I hope he comes back in one piece if he is selected he will be in for some serious punishment.

I think Marler is probably the weak point in the English team. If you stuck any of the other Nations starting looseheads (plus Healy) in that English side they would improve it imo. He looks like he would be a s%&t tourist (ie much closer to being a Mark Regan then a Simon Zebo) as well unless he turned out to be a Mike Phillips who only appears to be a complete knob but has the lolz outside matches.

I think Gatland will go with Vunipola and Felatau at 8 and Stander covering 6 & 8. It would be very hard on Jamie to lose out to Felatau but I imagine Gatland will lean that way. Selfishly, as a Leinster and Irish fan it would benefit me hugely if he did miss out with next season in mind.

I am not sure if he brings SOB, four years ago he should have been in the test team but Gatland kept leaving him out until he had to pick him through injuries for the final test. His form is not as good as then so I don't see how Gatland would have a higher appreciation for him then his previous low one.

I reckon you're right.
Gatland wants dodgems in his BR rather than RRs.
It's his call how he wants the lions to play and Heaslip ticks more boxes than Gattie needs.
Tough on Jamie but a nice summer rest could well mean he'll still be in prime condition for the next world cup.
That'd be good news for Leinster and Ireland.

[Oldschool]

Jaco Peyper ref for first Test - war, anything goes - pick your thugs.
Garces ref for second Test - neutralish, Itoje should definitely start.
Poite ref for third Test - Scrum the eff out of them.

[simonokeeffe]

Jaco Peyper ref for first Test - war, anything goes - pick your thugs.
Garces ref for second Test - neutralish, Itoje should definitely start.
Poite ref for third Test - Scrum the eff out of them.

I say scrum the gonads off them in the Garces test too

[hugonaut]

Jaco Peyper ref for first Test - war, anything goes - pick your thugs.
Garces ref for second Test - neutralish, Itoje should definitely start.
Poite ref for third Test - Scrum the eff out of them.

Would not disagree with you at all there Oldschool.

I think Itoje is every bit as good as he is supposed to be and will be a great tourist to boot - seems like a great lad. I saw him play up close for the England U19s in Donnybrook a year ago, and he is not just physically impressive, he is a real figurehead personality wise. People really respond to him. His ability to scrummage on the right hand side or play a really decent game at test level on the blindside is so impressive.

The Lions can be so strong at second row – Itoje, Jonny Gray, AWJ, Launchbury would be my first four, which means you leave out Lawes, Toner, Ryan, Charteris, Henderson, Richie Gray ...


Possible 23 for the first test:
[1-8]: McGrath, Best, Furlong, Itoje, AWJ, Stander, Warburton, B. Vunipola
[9-15]: Sexton, Murray, L. Williams, Farrell, Henshaw, North, Hogg
[16-23]: M. Vunipola, Owens, Cole, Launchbury, O'Brien, Webb, Daly, Zebo

[erskinechilders]

I think last weekend changes a few things with the Lions, most of all Haskell is not good enough to be anywhere near the squad. Basing off a 37 man squad I would go with : Forwards(20) and Back(17)

Props ( 6 )
Jack McGrath
Mako Vunipola
Marler/ Healy - undecided as of yet, both could potentially get it.
Tadhg Furlong
Dan Cole
John Ryan - I think he has a real opportunity, dealt with a massive Toulouse pack and has been consistently excellent this year. V Solid Scrummager

Hookers ( 3 )
Rory Best
Jamie George
Ken Owens

Second Row ( 5 )
Maro Itoje
Joe Launchbury
George Kruis
Alun Wyn Jones
J Gray/ Donncha Ryan - toss up here, I would probably go for Ryan because of his experience, leadership and aggression. Brilliant for midweek

Back Rows ( 6 )
CJ Stander
Peter O'Mahony
Sean O'Brien
Sam Warburton
Taulupe Faletau
Billy Vunipola
- Tough on Tipuric I know but I feel the others have the edge physically on him

Scrumhalf ( 3 )
Conor Murray
Rhys Webb
Ben Youngs

Outhalf ( 3 )
Johnny Sexton
Owen Farrell
Ford/ Russell... Can't make my mind up here, Carbery could be a bolter for 10/15!

Centres ( 5 )
Robbie Henshaw
Garry Ringrose
Jonathon Davies ( covers 12 )
Jonathon Joseph
Jared Payne/ Alex Dunbar

Back Three ( 6 )
Elliot Daly ( covers 11-15 )
Anthony Watson
George North
Liam Williams
Stuart Hogg
Simon Zebo