Ireland v New Zealand - Take Two

[LeRouxIsPHat]

Interested to see if there's any changes for this. Don't think anyone played well enough yesterday to demand selection. Ringrose is the only one that I would personally have as a possibility to start. It'd be incredibly harsh on Rob after last week but I'd be very tempted to do it. Given that we finally have that monkey off our back I think there's more scope to make a change like that now. As big a game as it is and as much as I'd expect a backlash, I think there's less pressure now so if things went badly it wouldn't be such a big deal.

Aside from a couple of great carries and some unbelievable clear outs I was disappointed with SOB. I'd say he'll be on the bench next week but honesty after yesterday I'd almost be tempted to put Leavy there, thought he was great and we probably need someone who can cover both flanks, which is something POM doesn't really do. Thought he was alright yesterday but don't see a place for him next week.

If Henderson is fit then it'll be interesting to see if he's picked. Again it'd be really harsh on whoever was left out but could see it happening if he's flying in training. Given recent form I'd keep Dillane on the bench regardless.

So for next week I think I'd just start VDF and Ringrose, with Payne moving to 15. Then I'd make more changes against Australia with Healy, POM, SOB and maybe one one two others getting starts. Even though Marmion and Jackson weren't good yesterday I'd probably still have them on the bench.

With Retallick and lienert Brown back (and maybe Whitelock?) it'll be much harder to stop NZ getting outside us with those short passes out the back/offloads and their set piece should be stronger. Going to a massive test but I think there's a lot that we can improve on from last week too. If we keep it close until the last quarter then you'd imagine the pressure will really pile onto NZ. Can't wait!

[fourthirtythree]

I would struggle to put O'Brien in that team or on the bench based on form. You need to be fit as a fiddle to think about playing NZ and I think he is some other string instrument. Just not there. Which leaves O'Mahony in a bind as he either starts or doesn't make the squad I think. You'd like him there to attack their lineout as they will be better this week and their poor lineout cost them dear last time out.

Marmion is a worry. I'm sure he's still on the bench but we will be looking for 80 from Murray which is unsustainable.

Wasn't mad about Jackson yesterday, though I see commentators complaining about Carberry's place kicking, I'm not sure that would swing it for Schmidt but I guess Jackson may still be ahead. Though Schmidt does like a versatile sub option OH/Centre/FB which Carberry does.

Can't see Payne being moved and I don't think Ringrose did enough to make a starting case and he may even lose his bench spot to Earls.
EDIT
and Dillane may have been man of the match but Ryan is still starting I would assum.

[LeRouxIsPHat]

I actually thought Earls was fairly poor yesterday. Had some good moments but a lot of mistakes too so wouldn't even contemplate swapping himself and Ringrose.

Funny you mention Carbery covering centre because I was wondering who was pencilled in to cover 12 last week if Henshaw had to go off.

[simonokeeffe]

Doubt Henderson is fit enough to start, even if for 45 or 50

Sub backrow is a very interesting one alright, Leavy and SOB the only ones that provide balance ie 7 cover

[Oldschool]

I would struggle to put O'Brien in that team or on the bench based on form. You need to be fit as a fiddle to think about playing NZ and I think he is some other string instrument. Just not there. Which leaves O'Mahony in a bind as he either starts or doesn't make the squad I think. You'd like him there to attack their lineout as they will be better this week and their poor lineout cost them dear last time out.

Marmion is a worry. I'm sure he's still on the bench but we will be looking for 80 from Murray which is unsustainable.

Wasn't mad about Jackson yesterday, though I see commentators complaining about Carberry's place kicking, I'm not sure that would swing it for Schmidt but I guess Jackson may still be ahead. Though Schmidt does like a versatile sub option OH/Centre/FB which Carberry does.

Can't see Payne being moved and I don't think Ringrose did enough to make a starting case and he may even lose his bench spot to Earls.
EDIT
and Dillane may have been man of the match but Ryan is still starting I would assum.

Joe doesn't take gambles unless he has to and the bench spot for the BR is going to be a gamble.
SOB or POM, SOB the likely winner but POM getting the full 80mins against Canada might be a pointer for the OZ game.
Neither SOB or POM look ready for a test match against either NZ or OZ but at least they are back playing again.
The other punt would be Leavy straight unto the bench but can't see that happening.
Good luck with that Joe.
Joe will not move Payne to 15 unless he has to.
The only other position up for grabs is cover for Murray.
Marmion has lost confidence whereas McGrath looked very positive. A tough one.
Ryan to start again, absolutely.
If we are to win this test Joe needs to use his bench about 5/10 minutes sooner on average.
It was the fresh legs that stopped the NZ comeback and it would be better to prevent it ever happening or delay it until it's too late.

[neiliog93]

I think if we get atrocious weather like in the Munster-Maori game, we'll win again. Our scrum and lineout are superior, we're more physical in a general sense. Probably a better kicking game too.

If the weather holds up we'll probably lose, but I think it would be a 10-15 point losing margin, not a hammering as others are predicting.

[CiaranIrl]

I actually thought Earls was fairly poor yesterday. Had some good moments but a lot of mistakes too so wouldn't even contemplate swapping himself and Ringrose.

Funny you mention Carbery covering centre because I was wondering who was pencilled in to cover 12 last week if Henshaw had to go off.

Earls will surely come into the 23 bench position. He didn't even trust Ringrose to come on for the last few minutes of the game. He also covers more positions.

[Oldschool]

I actually thought Earls was fairly poor yesterday. Had some good moments but a lot of mistakes too so wouldn't even contemplate swapping himself and Ringrose.

Funny you mention Carbery covering centre because I was wondering who was pencilled in to cover 12 last week if Henshaw had to go off.

Earls will surely come into the 23 bench position. He didn't even trust Ringrose to come on for the last few minutes of the game. He also covers more positions.

Good man, keep it up.

[simonokeeffe]

I actually thought Earls was fairly poor yesterday. Had some good moments but a lot of mistakes too so wouldn't even contemplate swapping himself and Ringrose.

Funny you mention Carbery covering centre because I was wondering who was pencilled in to cover 12 last week if Henshaw had to go off.

Earls will surely come into the 23 bench position. He didn't even trust Ringrose to come on for the last few minutes of the game. He also covers more positions.

I doubt anyone in the 23 jersey wouldve come on for more than 60 seconds of the NZ game, plus is Ringrose on the wing any worse than Earls at 13?

I think if we get atrocious weather like in the Munster-Maori game, we'll win again. Our scrum and lineout are superior, we're more physical in a general sense. Probably a better kicking game too.

If the weather holds up we'll probably lose, but I think it would be a 10-15 point losing margin, not a hammering as others are predicting.

One bit of skullduggery on Murray in that context and we're FUBAR

[Oldschool]

A little bit of a long shot but Joe could try something different like Using Dillane at 6 for the last fifteen minutes of the game.

[leinsterfan100]

A little bit of a long shot but Joe could try something different like Using Dillane at 6 for the last fifteen minutes of the game.

As good as Dillane is, and once again proved to be yday, I wouldn't look to 'experiment' against the All Blacks if it wasn't necessary...

[Ruckedtobits]

Having re-watched the game a couple of times, I certainly learned a bit more than I saw at almost pitch level. Also have read a number of the (?objective?) journalistic opinions, few of which concur with what was evident at the game or via the recording. Irish games against Tier 2 Nations are often reported in a manner which appear only to copper-fasten previously held views.

IMO,
~ Marmion was much improved on previous international appearances. His passing, although not as swift through the air as Murray, was consistent and fairly accurate. It was also from the ground, rather than pick-and-look. Finally, he resisted breaking, normally one of his strengths, as Jackson was generally in a better position to dictate.
~ Earls was eager and fairly incisive in possession, except when receiving "covered passes" behind a shield of players where he looked uncomfortable. However, he did not on this performance surpass Zebo on either potential or execution.
~ SO'B has risen in the match-fitness stakes and provided two characteristic bursts with off-loads which are his hallmark. Not yet 100% match ready but possible worth a bench slot.
~ PO'M, despite the Captaincy and significant media support did nothing in line-out or broken play or at breakdown to show he deserves to start and is behind SO'B for bench place.
~ Dillane is a great addition in carrying in broken play and tackling everywhere. However, he does not contribute anything significant at line-out or scrum. Bench slot for last 20 minutes so that we can continue to attack NZ.
~ Ringrose is certainly now 'ahead' of Marshall as a possible first-choice contender. However, based on yesterday, O'Halloran can add most top-class execution if sprung from the bench.

So for next Saturday there are some significant differences from Chicago:
A. NZ will tactically set out to "stop" Ireland. They will attack our tight-head at scrum time as they have occasionally targeted Australia - hooker and loose-head driving on Furlong. They will attack our line-out - double team against Dev and jumping early at two to pressure our throws. They will target re-starts, possibly by selecting Dagg at full-back and Ben Smith on wing.
B. NZ will not concede soft penalties. We cannot expect a series of line-out mauls for prime set-piece attacks and will have to create other opportunities.
C. NZ will try to separate Murray and Sexton. We are used to having Sexton "targeted" physically, in part because of his bravery but also in part because of his upright tackling technique. But Conor Murray has rarely been targeted at this level. NZ have previously adopted this tactic against Will Genia and been successful.

If these tactics do occur, they provide the possibility of Ireland using tactics to counteract by either avoiding NZ pressure (e.g. shortened line-outs and Channel 1 scrum ball), or figuring out what possible weaknesses in NZ play might be exposed if NZ do play like this.

Schmidt, Farrell, Easterby, Feek and Murphy will relish the prospect of such a game of chess. There's little doubt that this Irish Squad now have the confidence to execute whatever game plan is set in front of them. Will they have the expertise to adapt 'on the hoof' if the best team in the world pay Ireland the compliment of just trying to stop us playing?

I believe so, but that's the challenge.

[paddyor]

Rewatched the game having been at it. SOB had a very mixed game. Very prominent in attacl but nearly anonymous in defense. Not just the carrying, he got up in support and had some big clearouts that i jist cant see vdF making. But didnt seem to get into the game defensively. Only had 3 or 4 attempts at poaching their ball and had 2 or 3 tackles / assists.

[leinsterforever]

I'd like to see Leavy in the 23, but I suppose his lack of familiarity with the playbook might count against him

[LeRouxIsPHat]

I actually thought Earls was fairly poor yesterday. Had some good moments but a lot of mistakes too so wouldn't even contemplate swapping himself and Ringrose.

Funny you mention Carbery covering centre because I was wondering who was pencilled in to cover 12 last week if Henshaw had to go off.

Earls will surely come into the 23 bench position. He didn't even trust Ringrose to come on for the last few minutes of the game. He also covers more positions.

You think he rested him (along with 14 others) the week before Chicago and left guys like Luke Marshall and TOH (I know he wasnt in the original squad) in Ireland but didn't trust him? I don't think that was it, he was clearly pencilled in for the 23 very early on.

[blues_fan]

This is my most anticipated ABs game in years. Even more than ABs in SA or the '15 RWC final. Had a few shocks around NZ both literal and metaphorical recently. Everyone here is fizzing about this game. Can only imagine what Steve, Kieran and the boys are thinking given the bad news at home.

Such an odd thing about rugby. A supposedly one off 'friendly' can create more buzz than a Rugby Championship or RWC knockout game. Game on. ABs by 15.

[offshorerules]

I actually thought Earls was fairly poor yesterday. Had some good moments but a lot of mistakes too so wouldn't even contemplate swapping himself and Ringrose.

Funny you mention Carbery covering centre because I was wondering who was pencilled in to cover 12 last week if Henshaw had to go off.

Earls will surely come into the 23 bench position. He didn't even trust Ringrose to come on for the last few minutes of the game. He also covers more positions.

I thought Earls looked rusty against Canada, his timing appeared to be off. Also his flawed passing was an issue again.

[offshorerules]

I expect a backlash. Can't see the team selection changing much as I didn't think anyone put their hand up at the weekend. If anything a couple of players might have damaged their chances. In any event we know it's pretty pointless second guessing Joe.

[Laighin Break]

I also thought Earls had a poor game, and was amazed to read in articles and comments that he was brilliant and people saying that he may have done enough to get in ahead of Zebo! (Not a chance).
Anyway, it's interesting how some people would think Ringrose may have earned a starting spot, but it seems more likely that he'll actually miss out on the 23 as Earls will take the bench position instead because he 'covers more' - the thought of Earls having to play centre against NZ is a scary one. I'd want him nowhere other than the wing, and wouldn't want him there either.

Jackson will surely get in ahead of Carbery on kicking alone, which is very unfortunate. Carbery had 2 difficult kicks on Saturday, and you could see how disappointed he was hitting the post with the second one. The thought process in Leinster for having Nacewa take the kicks over Carbery was a fair one but his lack of kicking in games will affect his chances for Ireland. In fairness, they would never have imagined he'd be in the running for the national team come November. I'd say there's a good chance we'll see him kicking for Leinster for the rest of the season now.

I would love to see Leavy on the bench. He looked so comfortable coming on against Canada - just straight in doing what he does - and he covers 6 and 7 just as good. But this is probably a bit early for him. SOB should get the bench spot.

[jezzer]

This is my most anticipated ABs game in years. Even more than ABs in SA or the '15 RWC final. Had a few shocks around NZ both literal and metaphorical recently. Everyone here is fizzing about this game. Can only imagine what Steve, Kieran and the boys are thinking given the bad news at home.

Such an odd thing about rugby. A supposedly one off 'friendly' can create more buzz than a Rugby Championship or RWC knockout game. Game on. ABs by 15.

That is maybe the best thing I have read in months. To have all of NZ fizzing over a test against Ireland is exactly what everyone in and supporting irish test rugby could ever want.

Game fecking ON, my friend.

COME OOOOOOOOOONNNN IRELAAAAAAND!!!!