Ireland v Australia

[simonokeeffe]

RTP is five days length. Too early to say who will be available - we could have all, some or none of Stander, Kearney and Henshaw available depending on how they progress

Kearney is a doubt too? Thatd be Marshall v TOH for a spot.

RTB is right about their set piece, lineout especially has been dodgy af all season

Not saying we go all blacks on it but Foley is easily would up/rattled; hold him down well after play etc

"ice-man" Foley gets easily rattled?

its harder to rattle a box of lego than Foley, they had to move him to 12 to make room for Quade 'Mr Reliable' Cooper during the 4N as Foley was demolished by England and then was hapless in the following games. Foley is having a decent tour so far but he is far from reliable off the tee and in general

I'd go with Mr Childers team, only change I can see Joe making to it is starting Jackson

[jezzer]

RTP is five days length. Too early to say who will be available - we could have all, some or none of Stander, Kearney and Henshaw available depending on how they progress

I would hate to see either of Stander or Henshaw playing. Didn't see the Kearney hit so can't say.

[Oldschool]

RTP is five days length. Too early to say who will be available - we could have all, some or none of Stander, Kearney and Henshaw available depending on how they progress

I would hate to see either of Stander or Henshaw playing. Didn't see the Kearney hit so can't say.

Absolutely agree.

[suisse]

I wouldn't play Kearney even if he was OK. He was better on Saturday than he has been for a while - despite all the stuff written post Chicago - because he seemed to make all his tackles, but he still offered absolutely nothing in attack. Payne or TOH please. Let us see how someone else plays in that position is a key test match.

[Fireworks]

Team I'd like to see :

15. Jared Payne
14. Andrew Trimble
13. Garry Ringrose
12. Luke Marshall
11. Simon Zebo
10. Joey Carbery
9. Conor Murray
8. Jamie Heaslip
7. Sean O'Brien
6. Peter O'Mahony
5. Devin Toner
4. Iain Henderson
3. Tadhg Furlong
2. Rory Best
1. Jack McGrath

16. Sean Cronin
17. Cian Healy
18. Finlay Bealham
19. Ultan Dillane
20. Josh van der Flier
21. Kieran Marmion
22. Paddy Jackson
23. Tiernan O'Halloran

Based on Sexton, Stander, Henshaw and Kearney all being ruled out!

Much as I love the idea of Carbery at 10 I think the clever move is for him to be on the bench. Jackson has his flaws as we all do but he has more experience and has started big games before. Also I love the idea of Carbery coming on at 60 when Aus are tiring.

Also bit tough on Ryan. He has been good but the change would be understandable.

[Oldschool]

Team I'd like to see :

15. Jared Payne
14. Andrew Trimble
13. Garry Ringrose
12. Luke Marshall
11. Simon Zebo
10. Joey Carbery
9. Conor Murray
8. Jamie Heaslip
7. Sean O'Brien
6. Peter O'Mahony
5. Devin Toner
4. Iain Henderson
3. Tadhg Furlong
2. Rory Best
1. Jack McGrath

16. Sean Cronin
17. Cian Healy
18. Finlay Bealham
19. Ultan Dillane
20. Josh van der Flier
21. Kieran Marmion
22. Paddy Jackson
23. Tiernan O'Halloran

Based on Sexton, Stander, Henshaw and Kearney all being ruled out!

Much as I love the idea of Carbery at 10 I think the clever move is for him to be on the bench. Jackson has his flaws as we all do but he has more experience and has started big games before. Also I love the idea of Carbery coming on at 60 when Aus are tiring.

Also bit tough on Ryan. He has been good but the change would be understandable.

Wouldn't replace Ryan, our scrum could suffer as a result and OZ are the one team that, better than other, exploit weaknesses in the opposition.
FB is a funny one. What RK does better than anyone else (because of his aerial skills) is negate the opposition's kicking game and that is huge.
Moving Payne to FB means a lot of changes have to be made and it's unlikely Joe will go that route.
Payne is his defensive mastermind and he'd want more time with Ringrose to set him up for that roll.
If RK doesn't make it then TOH is the likely beneficiary - It's likely, as has suggested, that he could be on the bench at the very least.

[Barry]

from RTE :-
Ireland will be without Johnny Sexton and Robbie Henshaw for Saturday’s Test against Australia.
Sexton damaged his hamstring during the defeat to New Zealand at the weekend, while Henshaw suffered a concussion.
Both Rob Kearney and CJ Stander were suspected of concussion and are following return-to-play protocols.

[CiaranIrl]

Zebo looked like he could barely walk unaided when he was coming off for Marmion. Looked suspiciously concussed as well. Anyone know what happened?

[cormac]

Zebo looked like he could barely walk unaided when he was coming off for Marmion. Looked suspiciously concussed as well. Anyone know what happened?

Cramp

[Ruckedtobits]

Prep time is key. Training for Ire was cancelled today, so they only get two full pitch sessions before taking on Oz. Based on previous with Joe, that's too short to integrate anyone coming into Camp today. So Olding and Scannell call-ups are to get them used to Group, for possible future use or the very outside is to go on bench.

Joe now faces situation he had in SA. No Jonno and no Henshaw. The reality of (a fully prepared ) Jackson, Marshall and Payne was pretty good in that Test Match, even though we didn't finish the job. He also has option of going to Jackson, Marshall & Ringrose with Payne at FB. That may have been intention of playing that mid-field against Canada.

Totally accept that Marshall's two intercept passes have been sloppy, but he is too good a replacement to ignore - having been with the Group for all the month.

Longer term, Scannell is showing real form at 12 and I'd love to see him get close, sooner rather than later.

Up front, certainly don't want to change front five. Henderson doesn't look match ready so bring Dillane to bench and include PO'M or Leavy - definitely my preference. Cian H is getting closer but he is much preferred as impact option from bench, but at least 10 mins earlier.

All these comments are subject to complete fitness, post Saturday. That game was so tough that guys like Ryan, Heaslip, Toner, Best or SO'B could be carrying a knock which hasn't fully recovered and only Joe and staff will be aware until Thursday.

Aus pack is bigger and as brutal at breakdown as NZ. Scrum is technically vulnerable but back-row very inventive and tough. Their line-out and maul can be good also. We need to be on our game for this one, as Cheika & co are tactically smart.

[johng]

And they have the big willy skeleton.

[simonokeeffe]

And they have the big willy skeleton.

he brings as many weaknesses as strengths IMO
very hard to lift, leaves his SR partner and Mumm (who was a penalty machine for Exeter) as theyre significant jumpers, and he's lazy scrummager

basically he's Iain Henderson contaminated with Neil Francis

[backrower8]

I think a refreshed pack is vital if we are to win this - which I don't think we will do.

Healy Best Bealham
Hendo (if fit)/Ryan Toner
Stander (if fit)/POM Jamie VDF

Murray Jackson
Marshall Payne
Zebo (if fit)/Earls Kearney Trimble

Cronin McGrath Furlong Dillane SOB McGrath (won't happen though) Carberry Ringrose

Seanie played most of Canada and all of ABs. Needs minding and we have the talent around not to risk him.

Feel very uncomfortable about the backs. Lack of pace (Earls is not the answer). We really need more wing options. Is Tommy considered past it for 6N? Would like to drop Rob but too much with J10 and RH gone already.

We will need to win it through the pack and mixing the game up more with chips over the top.

[hugonaut]

I genuinely have no idea what people have seen in Peter O'Mahony's form this year to suggest that he should be starting against Australia. Since he has come back from injury, he has been mediocre.

I'm not saying that he's a mediocre player in general, because he has been a good player [if over-rated, in my view]. But he's missed 50 weeks out of the last 57 weeks with an injury and resultant surgery that is notoriously difficult to recover from, and since coming back he has turned out pretty ordinary performances that his fanbase are desperately trying to put a shine on.

To me, that struggle to hit previous heights seems quite natural after such a long layoff, especially given the nature of the injury. He's finding his way back to form, it's still early in that period for him and it's taking a while to get back to the standards he had previously played at. But why would you pick a player who is conspicuously in average form over a player who is in conspicuously good form?

Below you'll see a comparison under the typical statistical headings of three backrowers for the 2016/17 domestic season thus far. While they have worn different numbers on their backs, they have been picked on the blindside more often than any other position. Who do you pick: A, B or C?

Player A:
Mins played: 520
K/P/R: 0/24/61
MR: 186
CB: 2
DB: 15
OL: 6
Tackles Made/Missed: 72/6
Turnovers Won: 10
Turnovers Conceded: 7
Penalties Conceded: 5

Player B:
Mins played: 272
K/P/R: 0/8/26
MR: 28
CB: 0
DB: 2
OL: 0
Tackles Made/Missed: 22/1
Turnovers Won: 2
Turnovers Conceded: 5
Penalties Conceded: 2

Player C:
Mins played: 310
K/P/R: 1/19/45
MR: 62
CB: 1
DB: 2
OL: 4
Tackles Made/Missed: 60/5
Turnovers Won: 2
Turnovers Conceded: 2
Penalties Conceded: 2

[Dave Cahill]

If those who may be available are available...

McGrath, Best, Furlong, Ryan, Toner, Stander, SOB, Heaslip, Murray, Jackson, Trimble, Marshall, Payne, Zebo, Kearney.


The big question is around the back row if Stander doesn't make it. Does Joe go with a straight swap of POM for Stander, or does he move SOB across and ask him to play the same type of game as Stander and bring vdF in as an orthodox 7. If Kearney doesn't make it he'll pick TOH there.

Personally I'd go with Olding over Marshall, but thats the difference between six and two threes and Marshall is a guy Joe seems to like

[ronk]

Hugo you're probably right about POM, unless he's been showing very well in training.

Henderson is probably the way to go at 6. Dillane comes in and Ryan either starts or benches.


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[simonokeeffe]

Dillane, Earls, POM, declared fit
Stander and RK progressing well through rtp

[Raydollard]

Hope Carberry starts. We need an out half not a crock like Sexton or a never will like Jackson - who will never get a team on the move

[Ruckedtobits]

Hope Carberry starts. We need an out half not a crock like Sexton or a never will like Jackson - who will never get a team on the move

The evidence in three Tests against South Africa suggests that Jackson can get a team moving -if he get's Joe prep time and sticks to his lines.

Ireland do need, as a Squad, to win this one in whatever manner. Poite is refereeing and that almost certainly means penalties at scrum. With 'Two-storey Rory' and Kane Douglas or Dean Mumm in the row that means line-outs will be tough. Therefore, we need to take our points when on offer. Joey has not demonstrated international quality place-kicking anywhere. Jackson has and can also drop goals. Ergo, despite a strong Leinster bias, I'd go with Jackson and pair Marshall and Ringrose with him and play Payne at fullback with Zebo & Trimble on wings

[bonzo]

I genuinely have no idea what people have seen in Peter O'Mahony's form this year to suggest that he should be starting against Australia. Since he has come back from injury, he has been mediocre.

I'm not saying that he's a mediocre player in general, because he has been a good player [if over-rated, in my view]. But he's missed 50 weeks out of the last 57 weeks with an injury and resultant surgery that is notoriously difficult to recover from, and since coming back he has turned out pretty ordinary performances that his fanbase are desperately trying to put a shine on.

To me, that struggle to hit previous heights seems quite natural after such a long layoff, especially given the nature of the injury. He's finding his way back to form, it's still early in that period for him and it's taking a while to get back to the standards he had previously played at. But why would you pick a player who is conspicuously in average form over a player who is in conspicuously good form?

Below you'll see a comparison under the typical statistical headings of three backrowers for the 2016/17 domestic season thus far. While they have worn different numbers on their backs, they have been picked on the blindside more often than any other position. Who do you pick: A, B or C?

Player A:
Mins played: 520
K/P/R: 0/24/61
MR: 186
CB: 2
DB: 15
OL: 6
Tackles Made/Missed: 72/6
Turnovers Won: 10
Turnovers Conceded: 7
Penalties Conceded: 5

Player B:
Mins played: 272
K/P/R: 0/8/26
MR: 28
CB: 0
DB: 2
OL: 0
Tackles Made/Missed: 22/1
Turnovers Won: 2
Turnovers Conceded: 5
Penalties Conceded: 2

Player C:
Mins played: 310
K/P/R: 1/19/45
MR: 62
CB: 1
DB: 2
OL: 4
Tackles Made/Missed: 60/5
Turnovers Won: 2
Turnovers Conceded: 2
Penalties Conceded: 2

Leavy, O'Mahony, O'Brien?