Italy v Ireland 2017

[Laighin Break]

I would like to see a decent mix up of personnel for this one. If we're not going to change it for Italy, then who?
No harm for players to know they're not undroppable, and certainly no harm for other players in the squad to know they can actually push for a starting/bench spot, and they're not just there to be used as tackle bags.

[All Blacks nil]

John Ryan was great when he came on. If there's an award for most improved player in the country then he deserves to win it.

What i dont get about Ryan is in 2012 he did really well apparently for London Irish on loan, its taken another 4 seasons for an impact at Munster.

I would hold off SOB for impact in last 20 and i'd start either VDF of even POM at 7, ideally VDF to give more balance to backrow and speed to pack, alternatively POM to provide more dog for 60 minutes.
we'll need 4 trys, unleashing Healy and SOb in last 20 will help this.

Ryan has had to deal with a serious medical issue, of which a change of diet two years ago has helped him address. Delighted to see that you were so impressed with his 2 sub appearances in a three week loan period in August 2012 for London Irish.

http://www.the42.ie/john-ryan-illness-w ... 6-Feb2017/

[simonokeeffe]

He was also behind 2 good players in Cronin and Killer who werent away a lot

[offshorerules]

Weill if he gets his chance now and does well I'll be pleased but there is no doubt that Furlong is a loss if reports are true. People will talk about mixing it up etc. but I'd be giving my young inexperienced tighthead as much experienced as I could.

[offshorerules]

John Ryan was great when he came on. If there's an award for most improved player in the country then he deserves to win it.

What i dont get about Ryan is in 2012 he did really well apparently for London Irish on loan, its taken another 4 seasons for an impact at Munster.

I would hold off SOB for impact in last 20 and i'd start either VDF of even POM at 7, ideally VDF to give more balance to backrow and speed to pack, alternatively POM to provide more dog for 60 minutes.
we'll need 4 trys, unleashing Healy and SOb in last 20 will help this.

Ryan has had to deal with a serious medical issue, of which a change of diet two years ago has helped him address. Delighted to see that you were so impressed with his 2 sub appearances in a three week loan period in August 2012 for London Irish.

http://www.the42.ie/john-ryan-illness-w ... 6-Feb2017/

Ulcerative Collitis.

[Oldschool]

I don't really get why people mention Kilcoyne's scrummaging. It might not be a strength, but I really don't see it as a weakness either.

He has a repuation with refs for scrum resets and yellow cards. Thats the problem.

Regardless of what anyone sees or doesn't see, refs are seeing enough to penalise him.
Until he fixes the problem he won't be selected while their are more reliable options.
We don't need any more carriers in the squad.
In golf it's said that you drive for show and you put for dough.
In rugby carrying is like driving, it's an essential aspect of the game but it's not what it's all about.

[Oldschool]

Why would you drop Healy when he's coming into form?
Not a hope, unless Joe has had a serious change of heart on Kilcoyne.

I think Joe will have to have a serious change of heart about Healy first.
Don't see it happening.

When you get some decent carries out of your front five, it creates a little more space for the likes of Stander and SOB to carry. Apart from Furlong the rest of the starting front five carried for a total of 14 metres in 26 carries. Henderson made little impact and ended up practically hiding from the responsibility. His 2 metres in six carries was a poor return for a man selected for that ability. it isn't the 2 metres I'm worried about but more the fact that he wasn't looking for ball. No threat meant they could wait for CJ and SOB.
We need more ball carriers if we want to play bish bash bosh rugby.

Also if you want to dominate the lineout you pick lineout forwards.
As was well flagged by Murray Kinsella during the week a high percentage of our scores originate from the lineout. I'm sure the Scots had their own homework done and didn't just chance upon a random article on the 42.ie. Stop the lineout, and Ireland are looking at scraps.

We are not trying to play bish bosh rugby ergo.....
More carriers won't fix our lineout.
Our problems were mostly of the "mental" variety.
We just weren't switched on for this game.

[Oldschool]

A big issue with Joe and his crew, is often it's harder to get out of his squad than in it.
It is usually fairly easy to guess the team/squad he will pick. He has his team set in stone, and when they are fit they play.

Which is why Ireland found themselves in a position last weekend where we had 3 unused subs, despite the fact that the players on the field were running out of steam. Joe obviously didn't believe that they were better than an exhausted first choice player.

Over the last few months we have all read articles about the current depth available in Irish rugby, but that is meaningless unless that depth in used.

This is Italy, and we will most likely cruise to victory over an Italy team minus their beat player and following a quick turn around from a high attrition game against Wales. But yet we will see no obvious rotation in our starting team, and unlikely to see many changes to the squad.

To develop a squad you have to give players meaningful minutes.

The strength in depth is not uniform in all positions.
Back three and scrum half being the obvious weaker positions.
A tired player or a player carrying an injury or a player who is having an off day is definitely not going to able to perform at their best.
The coach then has to decide whether the fresh alternative is a better option.
Keatley v Jackson. I think everyone would probably agree that they would have left Jackson on, however he gave away "that penalty" so Joe has to factor that into his decision making.
Marmion v Murray. Same scenario two bad box kick decisions in the last ten, will Joe take that into consideration next time he has a difficult decision to make.
Bowe v Anyone. Joe went fir experienced and out of form rather than the unknown. If he wasn't going to use then........

[ribs]

Fair point about the unused subs. Pre-Joe Ireland selected the bench (and even full squads) only with versatility and injury in mind. I thought we had changed that and had subs that would bring something different to the table (afterall November showed that anybody can play in any position in the backs...). I think the bench selection was wrong for Scotland and Joe has to take responsibility for that.

[Oldschool]

A big issue with Joe and his crew, is often it's harder to get out of his squad than in it.
It is usually fairly easy to guess the team/squad he will pick. He has his team set in stone, and when they are fit they play.

Which is why Ireland found themselves in a position last weekend where we had 3 unused subs, despite the fact that the players on the field were running out of steam. Joe obviously didn't believe that they were better than an exhausted first choice player.

Over the last few months we have all read articles about the current depth available in Irish rugby, but that is meaningless unless that depth in used.

This is Italy, and we will most likely cruise to victory over an Italy team minus their beat player and following a quick turn around from a high attrition game against Wales. But yet we will see no obvious rotation in our starting team, and unlikely to see many changes to the squad.

To develop a squad you have to give players meaningful minutes.

Much the same happened with Kidney in fairness - and then he started a raft of changes too late. Someone made a good point on Best, although that said it is asking a lot for a hooker to go 80 minutes. I really thpought that Marmion should have been brought on - Murray has a huge workload in every game and if it isn't quite clicking, as it wasn't last week then he should have brought on the fresh option. Instead he brought on Bowe who didn't have an impact and I think that was pretty foreseeable tbh

It does appear that McGrath/Best/Toner/SOB/Heaslip/Murray/Sexton/Henshaw/Kearney will start no matter what - majority of them its not really an issue, but not all of them (I'm not including Furlong and Stander at this point in this list). I don't think any of the others are completely nailed down (although not far off) and thats what annoys me about his continued refusal to look at other options as the LH bench option - Healy at this point in time is simpoly not in teh same category as some of the others listed wrt importance to the team, available alternatives etc -> he dropped Bealham for Ryan - I don't think Bealham did anything particularly to deserve to be dropped but its good to see - as you say that is actualkly developing depth - not just claiming we have it. Woudl be no harm at all to do the same elsewhere - good players tend to respond well to this (Heaslip when Stander came into the team is a prime example - his Irish appearances have been on a different level since Stander came onto the team)

You're right about Heaslip and Stander.
There, I've finally agreed with you, hope you're happy.
Your point is well made, especially when you consider just how good Heaslip was against SA in the first test, when CJ went awol.
CJ put it up to Jamie and Jamie engaged the warp drive.

[Oldschool]

Furlong a doubt for Saturday.

thought he trained today/was expected to train fully despite bruised shoulder?

if hes out IMO they have to start Ryan for the scrums with Bealham on bench

Joe is lucky to have a tried and tested alternative like Ryan available to step in and with Bealham also developing nicely we should be ok against Italy.

[All Blacks nil]

OLDSCHOOL

Marmion v Murray. Same scenario two bad box kick decisions in the last ten, will Joe take that into consideration next time he has a difficult decision to make

OLDSCHOOL

A tired player or a player carrying an injury or a player who is having an off day is definitely not going to able to perform at their best.

Regarding Conor Murray's non replacement.

Murray made 135 passes which is an enormous figure. He also kicked 8 times. The vast majority of passes were at the base of breakdown with a few in open play. Ireland generated a lot of breakdowns due to their tactics. Allowing for the fact that Ireland won 17 setpieces (3 scrum penalties), Murray has to make 129 short sharp shuttle runs to be at those breakdowns. Rarely has a scrumhalf been asked to produce such a workload..
By contrast
Scotland 97 passes (Laidlaw97) England 68 passes (Youngs 53, Care 15), France 69 (Serin 46, Marchaneaud 23), Wales 92 (Wemm 83, Davies 9), Italy 59 (Gori 50, Bronzini 9)

In Ireland's victory v NZ he made a total of 67 passes, against Australia he made 92.

Consider also that he has to play his role in defence, and you can see he has had a gruelling day.

Some of Murray's poor decisions towards the end would be down to fatigue. The coaching team have all the info in front of them in real time but unfortunately chose to leave Marmion's fresh mind and body on the bench.
CONCLUSION
Joe should have made that decision but unfortunately chose to stick with the diminishing return of a fatigued Murray despite all the real time information which he would have been receiving and even seeing.
Will he start Marmion in front of Murray? NO
Should he have brought Marmion on instead of Murray ? YES
Hopefully Joe does take those two box kick decisions into consideration next time and perhaps by making a decision, prevent such poor decisions from taking place. That is what management is all about.

[Golf Man]

Weill if he gets his chance now and does well I'll be pleased but there is no doubt that Furlong is a loss if reports are true. People will talk about mixing it up etc. but I'd be giving my young inexperienced tighthead as much experienced as I could.

I certainly would be saying that Furlong would start (and will be a loss if he doesn't) - mixing Ryan and Bealham is a good idea - likewise I think Kilcoyne (given he is in form) should get a chance and give Healy and McGrath something to think about.

Fair point about the unused subs. Pre-Joe Ireland selected the bench (and even full squads) only with versatility and injury in mind. I thought we had changed that and had subs that would bring something different to the table (afterall November showed that anybody can play in any position in the backs...). I think the bench selection was wrong for Scotland and Joe has to take responsibility for that.

Not really sure what the point here is - most coaches (including Schmidt and Kidney) go with the next in line on teh bench - there is no doubt that Schmidt has more options than were available to Kidney (obviously most of DKs time he had only one prop sub which reduced options, not that we had many in any case). I don't think Kidney had a Henderson/Dillane type as a bench option - POC/MK/DOC/DR/LC were really the options at the time. He used Leamy a lot as the backrow sub, Schmidt has used Murphy - there is an equivalence there. Outside back sub bot have nearly always gone for the versatile safe option (Kidney used Murphy a lot, although laterally he used Earls/Fitz/Trimble) - Felix Jones and Fergus McFadden have filled the roles for Schmidt a lot.

I think Bowe was a dog of a pick last week - even allowing for injuries - I think he shoudlk have taken the chance to include one/two of the younger guys in the squad - Adelokun, Byrne for example would have benefitted more than say Bowe and Gilroy (Schmidt just not a fan and probably with good reason). Dillane looked like a good pick, but didn't look fit - sending him top play with Connacht this week and starting the form lock, with the impact of Henderson on teh bench woudl have appeared a better option, but in fairness it was probably the bolder call, so its tough to criticise it after the event

[Golf Man]

Marmion v Murray. Same scenario two bad box kick decisions in the last ten, will Joe take that into consideration next time he has a difficult decision to make

Regarding Conor Murray's non replacement.

Murray made 135 passes which is an enormous figure. He also kicked 8 times. The vast majority of passes were at the base of breakdown with a few in open play. Ireland generated a lot of breakdowns due to their tactics. Allowing for the fact that Ireland won 17 setpieces (3 scrum penalties), Murray has to make 129 short sharp shuttle runs to be at those breakdowns. Rarely has a scrumhalf been asked to produce such a workload..
By contrast
Scotland 97 passes (Laidlaw97) England 68 passes (Youngs 53, Care 15), France 69 (Serin 46, Marchaneaud 23), Wales 92 (Wemm 83, Davies 9), Italy 59 (Gori 50, Bronzini 9)

In Ireland's victory v NZ he made a total of 67 passes, against Australia he made 92.

Consider also that he has to play his role in defence, and you can see he has had a gruelling day.

Some of Murray's poor decisions towards the end would be down to fatigue. The coaching team have all the info in front of them in real time but unfortunately chose to leave Marmion's fresh mind and body on the bench.
CONCLUSION
Joe should have made that decision but unfortunately chose to stick with the diminishing return of a fatigued Murray despite all the real time information which he would have been receiving and even seeing.
Will he start Marmion in front of Murray? NO
Should he have brought Marmion on instead of Murray ? YES
Hopefully Joe does take those two box kick decisions into consideration next time and perhaps by making a decision, prevent such poor decisions from taking place. That is what management is all about.

I do think it was pretty clear that Murray was waning and the deciosion shoudl have been made. Likewise asking Best to go 80 is tough => I under stand the reasons, but if he had faith in teh backups then he has to react to these

[Peg Leg]

I don't really get why people mention Kilcoyne's scrummaging. It might not be a strength, but I really don't see it as a weakness either.

It's a massive weakness, when put under any pressure he hinges and drops the t/h. Any ref worth his salt will penalise him all day.

Just catching up on this thread, but the thought "where's spoofer" came to mind a couple of times.
His scrummaging has improved somewhat in fairness though, he has a better hooker and TH to allow him to adapt.
But as paddyor says he was a renowned penalty factory. Possible seen in the wrong tense by some refs.

[LeRouxIsPHat]

Marmion's breaking would have been perfect for the game plan we had/needed in the second half too. I thought Murray was poor (by his standards anyway) but still would have kept him on tbh. Easy to say you'd make the change but realistically I'm not sure too many people/coaches would take off the best scrumhalf in the world, especially when we actually did manage to get ahead.

I'd like Marmion to get more game time but it's one position where I have sympathy with Joe about playing someone else. Whether by accident or design it's the only position where we haven't mixed things up too much over the last few years.

[simonokeeffe]

Fair point about the unused subs. Pre-Joe Ireland selected the bench (and even full squads) only with versatility and injury in mind. I thought we had changed that and had subs that would bring something different to the table (afterall November showed that anybody can play in any position in the backs...). I think the bench selection was wrong for Scotland and Joe has to take responsibility for that.

It was partly injuries though, Cronin and Carberry would definitely have gotten on
Would have liked Scannell to have been there and come on at 12
A more broken game would have suited Marmion more

[munster#1]

Fair point about the unused subs. Pre-Joe Ireland selected the bench (and even full squads) only with versatility and injury in mind. I thought we had changed that and had subs that would bring something different to the table (afterall November showed that anybody can play in any position in the backs...). I think the bench selection was wrong for Scotland and Joe has to take responsibility for that.

It was partly injuries though, Cronin and Carberry would definitely have gotten on
Would have liked Scannell to have been there and come on at 12
A more broken game would have suited Marmion more

Imo scannell would have been a great addition at about 65mins. He has a very good work rate, is like an additional backrow at the breakdown, and his line-out throwing has been very good.
It is obvious from watching the game that the pack got through a lot of work, and no doubt that Best would have been fatigued.

Marmion, is Ireland's second choice scrum half with everyone fit, yet Joe has not given him enough game time prior to Saturday, to be confident in his ability. Everyone could see that Murray was tired, and his last couple of kicks were most likely a result of his fatigue.

There is no point having options at each province if you don't use them. Ireland under previous coaches suffered from a similar situation, with far less options.

[Xanthippe]

Here's a piece I did on Parisse back in 2013 when he was on 93 caps. He has 122 now so if I get a chance I'll update the tables later.

Ireland have lost to Italy but its not reflected in either scenario above

In actual fact Italy have beaten us 4 times in total but none of those games happened within the dates covered by the stats - as I mentioned I only covered Parisse's first 93 caps (June 2002 - Feb 2013)

The dates, venues and results of Italy's victories are:

06 May 1995 (Treviso) 22-12
04-Jan-97 (Lansdowne Road) 29-37
20-Dec-97 (Bologna) 37-22
16-Mar-13 (Rome) 22-15

[offshorerules]

God there's a cheery post to make us all feel better;)