Ireland 2017-18

[jimbobjoe]

Should Ireland drop Zebo now and give TOH or Carbery a starting slot for the AIs?

Conversely, should Ireland bring Tadgh Beirne into the training squad as he's committed to returning and is on good form?

[offshorerules]

With Best struggling to be fit in time and Scannell having surgery who does everybody think will be Irelands starting hooker?

[matt]

With Best struggling to be fit in time and Scannell having surgery who does everybody think will be Irelands starting hooker?

At the moment with scannell out and best just coming back Cronin has a great opportunity

[simonokeeffe]

With Best struggling to be fit in time and Scannell having surgery who does everybody think will be Irelands starting hooker?

He has two league games he can play in
Im cautiously optimistic

[Oldschool]

Should Ireland drop Zebo now and give TOH or Carbery a starting slot for the AIs?

Conversely, should Ireland bring Tadgh Beirne into the training squad as he's committed to returning and is on good form?

Yeah drop Zebo deffo and by all means introduce Beirne to the squad.
BTW I think Zebo is doing the right thing to take the money.
He'll do very well in France.

[paddyor]

Should Ireland drop Zebo now and give TOH or Carbery a starting slot for the AIs?

Conversely, should Ireland bring Tadgh Beirne into the training squad as he's committed to returning and is on good form?

Yeah drop Zebo deffo and by all means introduce Beirne to the squad.
BTW I think Zebo is doing the right thing to take the money.
He'll do very well in France.

Zebo is already paid for. No point in cutting off your nose to spite your face.

[offshorerules]

On Zebo for Ireland in the AI's, if he's the best option and available, which he will be for the rest of this season, then Joe will pick him.

[simonokeeffe]

may as well plonk this here but the head of the RFU is complaining about players who came through English academies playing for other countries, wants some rules against it

[Oldschool]

Should Ireland drop Zebo now and give TOH or Carbery a starting slot for the AIs?

Conversely, should Ireland bring Tadgh Beirne into the training squad as he's committed to returning and is on good form?

Yeah drop Zebo deffo and by all means introduce Beirne to the squad.
BTW I think Zebo is doing the right thing to take the money.
He'll do very well in France.

Zebo is already paid for. No point in cutting off your nose to spite your face.

It's nothing to do with him being already paid for.
As far as I'm aware he's not on a central contract.
Zebo is no longer the future.
The AIs is a lighter than usual campaign so it's an ideal opportunity to blood/develop younger players.
Selecting Zebo would amount to lost opportunity.
Munster of course should continue to select him for the reason you mention and because they can't simply replace at no extra cost whereas Ireland can.

[dropkick]

No point picking Zebo now but they should pick Beirne as a reward for signing up to come back to Ireland.


There is a lot of back 3 competition. Personally I'd leave Zebo out as well as Trimble and Bowe.

may as well plonk this here but the head of the RFU is complaining about players who came through English academies playing for other countries, wants some rules against it

I think they're already getting compensation. Something like £5,000 for every year the player was in the RFU system which is fair enough as long as the player knows from the beginning.

[Experimental]

I wouldnt agree that Zebo isnt the future, theres many a player has gone abroad a while only to come back a better player and contribute to Ireland, but I agree with oldschool on all other points.

[simonokeeffe]

No point picking Zebo now but they should pick Beirne as a reward for signing up to come back to Ireland.


There is a lot of back 3 competition. Personally I'd leave Zebo out as well as Trimble and Bowe.

may as well plonk this here but the head of the RFU is complaining about players who came through English academies playing for other countries, wants some rules against it

I think they're already getting compensation. Something like £5,000 for every year the player was in the RFU system which is fair enough as long as the player knows from the beginning.

do they?
would understand if they left but not if they stayed playing for an English team, freedom of movement and all that

[ronk]

Poaching between English teams has usually been more of an issue.

Flat charges discourage fringe players moving for gametime but isn’t on the register for the young stars. i.e. the worst of both worlds, how very English rugby.

[Ruckedtobits]

And so to the Front Five with the same viewpoint that Japan 2019 is now the objective, if not the total focus, then at least it is now the end game rather than merely this Season's 6N tournament.

It's very unlikely that any new Loose-head will emerge between now and naming a Squad to RWC2019. McGrath is still the front runner at international level because of his superb scummaging. Healy will be the consistent replacement and may well overtake Jack if he continues to scrum as well as he did against Zander Fagerson. There are others with excellent skill-sets in the wings and, IMO, the improvement evident in the scrum performance of KIlcoyne against his giant opponent Ben Tameifuna cannot have done his prospects any harm. That Garces did not have to penalise him once in the game at scrum time and that the Munster scrum remained solid or better throughout the game was a great achievement of which Kilcoyne can be rightly proud.

The others in the queue are Buckley and Dooley. Buckley may have peaked, although many LHPs come to their best in the late 20's or early 30's, but Dooley is still developing. He has a range of skills and abilities that may not get sufficient opportunities at the highest level in Leinster and he may have to think this through with the Ireland and IRFU management. Personally, I believe that Dooley could be an international player by the time Japan 2019 hoves into sight, but will he get the opportunity to prove his case? Just passed his 23rd birthday and already only a couple of pounds shy of 18 St, and 6' 1", Dooley has great hands, excellent pace and has learned to use his feet most adroitly for a ball-carrying prop.

On the other side we have the "darling of Sky Sports Rugby department" who have even learned how to pronounce his name during prolonged exposure in NZ. Furlong continues to improve and although troubled at scrum time in his first couple of provincial outings this Season, he gave a top class exhibition last week against Montpellier and will get better and better over the next couple of years.

Strange decisions in Munster in Rassie's last couple of selections before he departures these shores in the selection of Archer ahead of John Ryan. Ryan jumped ahead of Bealham (and others) last Season and looked like a player who was developing, relatively late, into a top class THP after several seasons of being chopped and changed between both sides. Archer has never demonstrated before the aptitude or ability to be the hard man needed at THP. He has good hands but his speed of movement and ultimate strength have always appeared to be less than necessary at the top level.

But, Rassie must have seen something and although Ryan gave another totally professional performance in closing out the game against Racing, Archer still appears to be at the front of this race at present. The other contenders include Bealham and Porter, two players who will need to keep their standards high and reduce their penalty count, if they are end up on Joe's Squad. Ulster's recently qualified contender,Wiehahn Herbst, despite a 40 match career with Sharks in Super Rugby, has not been the dominant player expected for a 29-year old THP and will not make an Irish Squad on his displays thus far.

Bealham has impressed during his short Irish Squad career. He has a good array of skills and appears to be a technically good scrummager. Porter is hugely strong and is still learning how best to optimise this element of his attributes. If he can learn how to recognise in broken play when to use pure power and when to evade the contact and then use his power and pace, he could be a secret weapon off the bench in RWC2019.

Hooker is a position in which Ireland may lack depth in quality but have a raft of contenders with a range of different attributes. By my calculations, Ireland could have a maximum of 28 internationals between now and the end of RWC 2019 (11 this Season; 10 including two warm-up games in 2018-19 and seven RWC Pool and knock-out games). Best won't need to start, or even play, in them all as Schmidt and his coaches search for the necessary depth in this position. But, like Ledesma before him for Argentina, he possesses key components which would make you hope that his hamstring injury does not become chronic and that, even at 37 starting that Tournament in Japan, he will still be a vital force as Captain of the team.

For the present however, any Provincial No 2 who demonstrates very good throwing consistency could jump to the head of a list of contenders to support Rory Best.

Primarily for his wonderful defensive qualities and his ball-stealing ability at breakdowns, Best has no equal on the Irish scene and not many better at these skills internationally. Cronin, if he can get to a 83% (5 from 6) throwing accuracy, or even better 87% (7 from , has the striking attribute of his broken field running to complement his basic role. Although not as good in the scrum as Best or Scannell or Treacy, this ball carrying ability gives him the advantage over them all because he can change the game off the bench in a manner than few other forwards of any position can offer.

Scannell has emerged as a possible successor to Best for both line-out accuracy and also scrum strength but his Provincial opponents, Herring, and Cronin / Treacy would not yet concede their chances of beating him to an Irish Squad place. The probability that we will take three hookers to Japan 2019 makes this 3rd slot one of the softest options to make RWC2019.

The margins for selection at hooker may be very slender. The ability to throw long and accurately can be enormous value to an entire pack and give the Coach great options in the attacking capabilities of his entire team. Losing your own throw, on the other hand, can provide opponents with a huge attacking advantage because of the depth of the opposing backs-aligned in anticipation of a very different outcome. These are the factors which Schmidt will weigh most precisely. If he is not selected for the Irish Squad for the forthcoming Autumn internationals, Tom McCartney might be an ideal part-time National throwing Coach as he is without doubt the most accurate thrower in the four Provinces and learn his trade the hard way in Auckland.

For the past four Rugby World Cups, naming the Irish second-row was rarely a problem. We had the era of the three O's PO'C, DO'C, MO'K, then Leo and Donnchadh Ryan appeared and finally Dev and Hendo arrived on the scene. Since 2003, it's been easy to summarise.

This time around may not be quite so simple. At least one position may depend on the quality of our hookers and their throwing. With Henderson an automatic selection in any match-day squad, coverage of 2nd and back-row is assured and may tempt Schmidt not to carry other specialist second-row cover on the bench. So, possibly only three slots for RWC 2019 selection.

As it stands at present, Toner and Henderson would be my automatic selections but over the next two seasons, Ultan Dillane (25 by start of RWC 2019), James Ryan (23 by RWC 2019) or Kieran Treadwell (also 23 by RWC 2019) may make that prediction look premature. Donnchadh Ryan's departure to Racing 92 looked like a big blow for Ireland six months ago. Just now, whilst it still appears unfortunate for Munster, the available Irish alternatives are looking impressive. The three young second-rows might not have attained their playing peaks by the first game in Tokyo on 20th September 2019, but they will each have had ample opportunity to show that the modern game for Ireland is best played by youngsters who have not yet acquired chronic injuries or cynical outlooks.

By September 2019, Ireland will have played 47 Tests since Dillane entered the Irish Squad in January 2016. By the same date, Ireland will have played more than 70 test matches since Henderson (now 25) was first capped against the Springboks in Autumn 2012. Ryan and Treadwell were both first capped during the recent Irish Tour of the US and Japan in June 2017. Toner, the elder citizen by quite some distance at age 31 was first capped by Declan Kidney at age 24 in the Autumn Series of 2010 and has now accumulated 50 caps.

Henderson appeared to have plateaued in his physical progress during last season but some of his cameo performances for the Lions during the summer indicated there could be more to come. Ryan has just returned from his first major injury and has been very impressive at top European level whilst Treadwell, a former English champion schools 400m runner, has shown glimpses of that athleticism within an Ulster pack which is being re-constructed by Jonno Gibbes. Dillane emerged and thrived under the charismatic presence of Pat Lam and may be taking longer to blossom under the more prosaic Kieran Keane. But Schmidt liked what he saw from Dillane and like any good Coach will not ignore a young man who is still developing physically, even if progress is not always in a straight line.

So, lots to look forward to in the coming months and it has certainly been evident in the opening weeks of Season 2017-18 than Dev Toner is aware of the competition around his parish.

As is already evident from reviewing the front-five prospects, the level of competition is at a staggering level and then we come to the back-row where we could genuinely select double the number of players for which we will have available places.

Suffice it to say at this point that injuries and form will be the key determinants of selection. The quality in every position is simply too high to allow anybody, including Lions players, claim a place based on previous form or accumulated experience.

Based on reputation, experience and down-right Leinster bias, the back-row which I would like to see take the field for our RWC game against Scotland in September 2019 is SO'B, Jamie and Dan Leavy. That selection looks highly unlikely at this point with Jamie in particular appearing to be long-term injury impaired and SO'B another casualty of his own physicality on the pitch.

At this point, and assuming that Iain Henderson is considered exclusively as a second-row starter, the contenders for back-row must include PO'M, Stander, JVdF, Tommy O'Donnell, Jack O'Donoghue, Jack Conan, Rhys Ruddock, Jordi Murphy, Eoin McKeon, and Sean Reidy. So let's firstly separate them into their notional positions of Open-side, Blind-side and Number 8.

No 8: Heaslip, Conan, Stander, O'Donoghue
Open-side: SO'B, JVdF, Leavy, O'Donnell, Murphy, Reidy
Blind-side: PO'M, Ruddock, McKeon

But then there's the positions that they have played for Ireland:

No 8: Heaslip, Stander, Conan, Ruddock, Murphy (both in injury situations)
Open-side: PO'M, SO'B, JVdF, O'Donnell, Murphy, Leavy, Reidy, Ruddock
Blind-side: PO'M, Stander, Ruddock, SO'B, Leavy, O'Donoghue

It's clear that no analytic process is going to narrow down these contenders to a maximum of five or even six players in a World Cup Squad. Schmidt picked five pure back-row players for RWC 2015 in a Squad of 31 (seven if you were to include Donnchadh Ryan and Iain Henderson as back-row cover). so let's stay with trying to pick just five players and validate their selection.

Heaslip, if fit, must go for me. No Irish No 8 has had such a dominant effect on the game or been more successful in winning trophies. Jamie will be 35 when the Tournament commences and until his recent back injury has only suffered one (ankle) injury in his career, so he certainly has miles on the clock. However, if his enforced absence has the same impact on his career that the (un-enforced) sabbatical taken by NZ captain McCaw had on the NZ effort in 2015, Jamie simply must go. McCaw had his sabbatical at age 33. Jamie will be 34 in December this year and if he returns before Christmas 2017, I would have him pencilled in for September 2019.

[Ruckedtobits]

I should include Tadgh Beirne in any consideration of the RWC Squad for 2019. His rate of improvement as a forward since arriving at Scarlets has been startling and for this alone Wayne Pivac must get great credit. Beirne could not and would not have improved so fast had he stayed in Leinster because of lesser game time. Scarlets had a need and Tadgh filled it superbly - both at back-row and second-row.

IMO, he is possibly not tall enough for the ideal international second-row but the quality of the Scarlets line-out, both throwing and lifting, has completely obscured this fact.

He has become one of the best carriers and distributors in the Pro12/ 14 and Scarlets scrum is a real weapon against everybody in the League. No major shortcomings then in his skill-set or performance in big games. Schmidt could take the gamble of putting him straight into the Autumn International Squad as an immediate down-payment on his contract with Munster in 2018-19. Given his form and versatility such a decision would not be a surprise.

[CiaranIrl]

Superb post RTB, thanks.

[Oldschool]

One of the longest posts ever RTB and yet one of the most concise.
Really really good post, really.

[matt]

Excellent post RTB. It would be hard to disagree with anything said & definitely agree with praise for Kilcoyne in last few weeks.

[LeRouxIsPHat]

I do think Scannell will have overtaken Best by then, in fact I think he'll overtake him as soon as he's fit and gets the chance to play for Ireland. He has everything you want in a hooker and seems to be very strong mentally, he's not a guy that I'd worry about at a crucial lineout 5m from the line. I'm a huge fan of Best and thought he finished the Lions tour really strongly, but I think his impact has been declining over the last 2 years or so. He's still a top player but don't think he's as consistent as he used to be.

I don't expect this to happen but I hope we experiment a little bit in November because there won't be many more chances to do it. The back three is certainly one area where I'd mix it up (maybe even try someone like Barry Daly in one game), and I'd honestly leave Murray and Sexton out in one of the two bigger games and see how the team goes without them. I think we can do that given that our pack is in good shape and then we should be well prepared for the 6N and the summer tour which is a great opportunity to lay a marker down and achieve a series victory against Australia.

Even though we're two years out from the World Cup, I reckon that there'll be very very few guys breaking into the squad from 2018 onwards. Someone like Adam Byrne will more than likely miss out on this squad and then I just can't see him being trusted in the 6N or Australia, and suddenly you're a year out from Japan and he won't have been capped.

[LeRouxIsPHat]

Adam is in the squad! Sweetnam is too so perhaps Joe is going to experiment in the back three. Adam would be a serious risk in a big international game but I'm delighted Joe wants to try and develop him, hopefully it pays off.

No Zebo so I suspect my theory of him announcing his departure because he wasn't in the squad was correct.

Farrell is in and I can't say I understand that one, been really really poor in the last few games from what I've seen.