Ireland v Argentina 2017

[paddyor]

Are we a bit hard on Byrne re his defense? I'm not saying he doesn't make mistakes but statistically he was as good as Zebo or Sweetnam in 2017(and conceded fewer turnovers). I know they wouldn't be the highest bar in terms of defense but people make less of an issue with them. Maybe it's because he looks so hesitant but he does generally make his tackles.

No, we aren’t too hard on him. His mistakes were major and consistent systems failures of positioning. God knows it caused Leinster enough grief this year already. I don’t think comparisons with others matters much on that measure.

I was nervous for him and thought he played conservatively in Saturday. Didn’t really commit to a couple of those garryowens, etc. But while you’d have been delighted if he’d ripped it up, a la Stockdale- in the final analysis he made no mistakes (always a big plus with Joe) and I’d say he can be pleased for him in his overall performance.


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He's 23 and in what is effectively his 2nd season of pro rugby.
He finished last season 87% tackle success 78/12 from 1435 mins in 20 games. It's probably a safe bet that he has more clean sheets than not. It probably helps that he had the benefit of playing against a saints B team in the Aviva and a 14 man Montpellier at the RDS. It also probably helps that we generally had a lot possession. On the other side he played in a lot of cobbled together backlines that were more than a little ropey at times.

For comparison
Stockdale finished last season 79% tackle success 55/15 from 1063 mins in 20 games. Most of his game time was during the 6N, played very little HEC.

Sweetnam finished last season 80% tackle success 99/24 from 1688 mins in 24 games. He also has a higher number of turnovers conceded probably due to the kick chase part of the Munster game plan.

Neither of them seem to have their defense questioned as much as Byrne. Some more experienced players

McFadden finished last season 87% tackle success 46/7 from 678 mins in 10 games.

Kearney finished last season 82% tackle success 31/7 from 467 mins in 8 games.

Nasewa finished last season 80% tackle success 75/20 from 1564 mins in 21 games. Some of these were at 15 obviosuly so not entirely like for like.

I'm not saying he doesn't have issues but he gets a harder time than others. IMHO it's because he's not a dominant tackler even if he generally does make his tackles. But I can't really remember him laying someone out the way Ringrose did in first season(was on the wing against a Welsh side IIRC) or driving someone back 5m like Stockdale did last Saturday. If you're wondering, none of the others have his upside in attack (metress gained, tries, assists, defenders beaten & clean breaks).

[neiliog93]

The stats for missed tackles are very dodgy. And they don't capture decision-making at all, which is possibly more important.

[paddyor]

The stats for missed tackles are very dodgy. And they don't capture decision-making at all, which is possibly more important.

If they're "dodgy", they're dodgy for everyone, so it all evens out. I'd argue they do actually. In missed tackles. If you're gonna go down that road, they don't cover how often he corrected himself and made the tackle. He's not the only one who's made mistakes and cost us a try. Only one of those tries in the SF vs Scarlets came down his wing.

[LeRouxIsPHat]

Good post above Paddyor and I agree with you to an extent. I think he's improved a lot but his mistakes tend to be very bad ones so really stand out and stick in the mind, the mix up against Munster being the obvious one. I watched him closely at the start of Saturday's game and he was out of position a few times and that made me nervous, but it was okay because the ball didn't go out that way and then he defended really well for the rest of the game. So IMO his reputation precedes him somewhat and personally I'm kind of waiting for a mistake to be made when that's harsh because he's fine most of the time.

[neiliog93]

The stats for missed tackles are very dodgy. And they don't capture decision-making at all, which is possibly more important.

If they're "dodgy", they're dodgy for everyone, so it all evens out. I'd argue they do actually. In missed tackles. If you're gonna go down that road, they don't cover how often he corrected himself and made the tackle. He's not the only one who's made mistakes and cost us a try. Only one of those tries in the SF vs Scarlets came down his wing.

Sorry, but there's absolutely no way that Isa missed 20% of his tackles. That's just bullshit.

[blockhead]

Eddie and Donal on ATH. Both went for Rob to be the starting 15 for the 6N.
That's gonna upset a few people no doubt.
They also went for a Henshaw/Ringrose centre pairing btw.

[artaneboy]

The stats for missed tackles are very dodgy. And they don't capture decision-making at all, which is possibly more important.

If they're "dodgy", they're dodgy for everyone, so it all evens out. I'd argue they do actually. In missed tackles. If you're gonna go down that road, they don't cover how often he corrected himself and made the tackle. He's not the only one who's made mistakes and cost us a try. Only one of those tries in the SF vs Scarlets came down his wing.

Sorry, but there's absolutely no way that Isa missed 20% of his tackles. That's just bullshit.

Are we back to the credibility of the ESPN stats here? Not the first time they’ve been questioned.

In any case, as I and others have pointed out, it’s not missed tackles that’s Adam’s more serious flaw in defence- it’s positioning and ‘biting in’. His mistakes of of this nature can cause a collapse of the whole defensive line. It’s not just a hole that can be covered and supported by team mates. Missed tackles are really a distraction to the big issue.

Intriguingly when Adam went to 13 late in the match, he worked very well there in that central slot. Joe noticed it too. And the really bright thing from Adam’s point of view is that despite the very real concerns about his defence and Joe’s value on that aspect of a wingers skill-set- he still gets the nod. He certainly likes him and if he gets the ‘D’ right he’ll be in with a real chance of becoming a regular.


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[paddyor]

The stats for missed tackles are very dodgy. And they don't capture decision-making at all, which is possibly more important.

If they're "dodgy", they're dodgy for everyone, so it all evens out. I'd argue they do actually. In missed tackles. If you're gonna go down that road, they don't cover how often he corrected himself and made the tackle. He's not the only one who's made mistakes and cost us a try. Only one of those tries in the SF vs Scarlets came down his wing.

Sorry, but there's absolutely no way that Isa missed 20% of his tackles. That's just bullshit.

Ah there is yeah. Do you remember he nearly got carded against Edinburgh last season for terrible challenges. Leavy copped a "team" one in the end. Do you remember earlier in the season when Isa nearly got carded for a flying clothesline(he kind-of pulled out at the last second) against Cardiff? Isa was a bit of a liability on the wing last season.

[paddyor]

Are we back to the credibility of the ESPN stats here? Not the first time they’ve been questioned.

In any case, as I and others have pointed out, it’s not missed tackles that’s Adam’s more serious flaw in defence- it’s positioning and ‘biting in’. His mistakes of of this nature can cause a collapse of the whole defensive line. It’s not just a hole that can be covered and supported by team mates. Missed tackles are really a distraction to the big issue.

Intriguingly when Adam went to 13 late in the match, he worked very well there in that central slot. Joe noticed it too. And the really bright thing from Adam’s point of view is that despite the very real concerns about his defence and Joe’s value on that aspect of a wingers skill-set- he still gets the nod. He certainly likes him and if he gets the ‘D’ right he’ll be in with a real chance of becoming a regular.


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Look, the stats are equally as bad for everyone. I compared him to Zebo, Sweetnam and Stockdale. He came up favourably in defense.I'm not saying he's perfect, needs to work on stuff,

[artaneboy]

Are we back to the credibility of the ESPN stats here? Not the first time they’ve been questioned.

In any case, as I and others have pointed out, it’s not missed tackles that’s Adam’s more serious flaw in defence- it’s positioning and ‘biting in’. His mistakes of of this nature can cause a collapse of the whole defensive line. It’s not just a hole that can be covered and supported by team mates. Missed tackles are really a distraction to the big issue.

Intriguingly when Adam went to 13 late in the match, he worked very well there in that central slot. Joe noticed it too. And the really bright thing from Adam’s point of view is that despite the very real concerns about his defence and Joe’s value on that aspect of a wingers skill-set- he still gets the nod. He certainly likes him and if he gets the ‘D’ right he’ll be in with a real chance of becoming a regular.


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Look, the stats are equally as bad for everyone. I compared him to Zebo, Sweetnam and Stockdale. He came up favourably in defense.I'm not saying he's perfect, needs to work on stuff,

C’mon man- if the stats collection and collating system is wrong, it won’t be equally: it’ll be all over the place. The Isa instance is relevant on that. A few dangerous/ reckless moments doesn’t add up to him missing one fifth of his challenges.

On Adam. I agree, he does need “to work on stuff”- but he hasn’t be harshly judged. Delighted he’s getting a good opportunity.


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[artaneboy]

Eddie and Donal on ATH. Both went for Rob to be the starting 15 for the 6N.
That's gonna upset a few people no doubt.
They also went for a Henshaw/Ringrose centre pairing btw.

Well, it’s to expected that Steady Eddie and Lenihan will go for Rob over the more ambitious options.

Doesn’t mean they’re wrong though!


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[Oldschool]

The stats for missed tackles are very dodgy. And they don't capture decision-making at all, which is possibly more important.

If they're "dodgy", they're dodgy for everyone, so it all evens out. I'd argue they do actually. In missed tackles. If you're gonna go down that road, they don't cover how often he corrected himself and made the tackle. He's not the only one who's made mistakes and cost us a try. Only one of those tries in the SF vs Scarlets came down his wing.

No if they're dodgy, they're dodgy.

[OTT]

I don't think people are overly hard on Byrne about his defence. I think people are so eager for him to succeed that they worry that his defence will hold him back from ultimately being an Irish regular. When I say defence I mean his reading and positioning. There are a lot of times he looks like he is winging it (excuse the pun) when it comes to defensive plays. He hopes he is making the right decision but it is not based on any defensive system.

Fielding defensive kick returns and holding his width in defence are the two areas that he naturally struggles at. An example off the top of my head at the first one would be Northampton away last season he kept them in the game the first half by not knowing where to be when they were kicking deep, they just kept pumping the ball down his wing and getting serious gains out of it. The second one he usually throws in an early bite in every match he did it at the weekend.

The goal is to turn him into a Hickie who struggled early in his career and not have him be a Varndell who never bothered to become a better defender. His appetite to improve gives me great hope that he can become a lot better in defence.

I take Paddy's points about Sweetnam and Zebo not coming under the same scrutiny but lets be honest Munster players generally don't have to statistically back up their hype but I am glad we judge players differently. I do think Isa got slack here last season, maybe not slack but an acknowledgement that he was struggling physically definitely after Christmas to seasons end anyway.

Lets hope Adam makes it long term, I am a big fan and hope he can overcome his deficiencies.

[paddyor]

C’mon man- if the stats collection and collating system is wrong, it won’t be equally: it’ll be all over the place. The Isa instance is relevant on that. A few dangerous/ reckless moments doesn’t add up to him missing one fifth of his challenges.

On Adam. I agree, he does need “to work on stuff”- but he hasn’t be harshly judged. Delighted he’s getting a good opportunity.


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There margin of error is the same for everyone. The mistakes will even out over a season.

But I think you've basically proved my point. Isa went high a number of times last season and got penalised for it. That's a missed tackle but everyone has a blind spot for it.

[neiliog93]

"The mistakes will even out over a season".

That's not how dodgy indicators work. - "Sure the dodginess in the statistical methods section of my research paper evens out over time, therefore even if my methods are flawed the conclusions are reasonably valid". It doesn't hold up.

[paddyor]

Look, they're clearly more accurate than your recollection even if they contain errors.

[artaneboy]

Look, they're clearly more accurate than your recollection even if they contain errors.

Well that's a value judgement, if ever there was one!

Anyway, the more relevant point is that we were not really blaming Adam for missing tackles- the correct complaint was he often was not in the right place to even attempt tackles, because he's left his proper defensive position.

Leaving Adam out of it, we accepted a long time ago that measuring defense solely on tackles was a system flaw in its own right. We tend to focus on what is measurable and then use that as the standard- whether or not it's an accurate guide to events or phenomenon. Much harder for ESPN or whoever to measure defensive bolts- or the many variants. So they don't bother and then a partial and flawed measure becomes equated with the more complex reality. Data is good- when it is accurately analysed and transmitted.

[paddyor]

Look, they're clearly more accurate than your recollection even if they contain errors.

Well that's a value judgement, if ever there was one!

Anyway, the more relevant point is that we were not really blaming Adam for missing tackles- the correct complaint was he often was not in the right place to even attempt tackles, because he's left his proper defensive position.

Leaving Adam out of it, we accepted a long time ago that measuring defense solely on tackles was a system flaw in its own right. We tend to focus on what is measurable and then use that as the standard- whether or not it's an accurate guide to events or phenomenon. Much harder for ESPN or whoever to measure defensive bolts- or the many variants. So they don't bother and then a partial and flawed measure becomes equated with the more complex reality. Data is good- when it is accurately analysed and transmitted.

Oh we did did we?

[artaneboy]

Look, they're clearly more accurate than your recollection even if they contain errors.

Well that's a value judgement, if ever there was one!

Anyway, the more relevant point is that we were not really blaming Adam for missing tackles- the correct complaint was he often was not in the right place to even attempt tackles, because he's left his proper defensive position.

Leaving Adam out of it, we accepted a long time ago that measuring defense solely on tackles was a system flaw in its own right. We tend to focus on what is measurable and then use that as the standard- whether or not it's an accurate guide to events or phenomenon. Much harder for ESPN or whoever to measure defensive bolts- or the many variants. So they don't bother and then a partial and flawed measure becomes equated with the more complex reality. Data is good- when it is accurately analysed and transmitted.

Oh we did did we?

Well, do you think that it’s an adequate measure? If so, we may as well leave it there, there’s no common ground.


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[Peg Leg]

The problem for me with the tackles made/missed stats vis a vis Byrne, is that he missed 100% of the tackles that he wasn't there to make. But they're not recorded.