RWC 2019

[Fan with smartphone]

Perhaps I’m guilty of being stuck in the past, but i largely agree with you rtb and would still have McGrath ahead of Kilcoyne. Happy to see Kilcoyne playing well, but just feel McGrath has the higher ceiling and Gregor Townsend would breathe a bit of a sigh of relief if McGrath loses out.

It’s a bit of a microcosm of the old World Cup argument of form over established performance. Maybe I’m conservative, but I do tend to lean towards the ‘proven it in the past’ group. It’s not realistic to expect someone who feels in their heart that they’ve shown they can do this already, to then perform at optimum level in these warm up games. A player in that position is feeling they’ve gotta get themselves physically ready to perform in the big games in 4+ weeks and the game today is really a nuisance to that, whereas the outsider is doing everything they can to get selected right now. Tomorrow doesn’t exist. The danger is that when that player makes it, they’ve already pretty much peaked, or the selection itself is their goal and mentally they aren’t prepared to actually make an impact when the big stuff starts. I might have too much faith but just feel that when things ratchet up, McGrath will ratchet up too and make an impact.

[Ruckedtobits]

It’s a bit of a microcosm of the old World Cup argument of form over established performance. Maybe I’m conservative, but I do tend to lean towards the ‘proven it in the past’ group. It’s not realistic to expect someone who feels in their heart that they’ve shown they can do this already, to then perform at optimum level in these warm up games. A player in that position is feeling they’ve gotta get themselves physically ready to perform in the big games in 4+ weeks and the game today is really a nuisance to that, whereas the outsider is doing everything they can to get selected right now. Tomorrow doesn’t exist. The danger is that when that player makes it, they’ve already pretty much peaked, or the selection itself is their goal and mentally they aren’t prepared to actually make an impact when the big stuff starts. I might have too much faith but just feel that when things ratchet up, McGrath will ratchet up too and make an impact.

@Fan with Smartphone, you've hit the nail on the head about that selection conundrum and that's what Joe and his fellow selectors have to analyse. Some guys will have strived to produce their maximum effort to get selected. But this may well impact on their form on 20th Sept or 20th Oct - it's almost impossible to stay at a peak for more than 6 weeks.

Who are the guys who are just running into fitness and form? Based on the last three weeks, Addison has really put up his hand, so did Kilcoyne yesterday, despite my reservations. IMO, Ringrose has been poor by his standards but is not under pressure for selection. Carty gave a very mixed performance but well ahead of Byrne and also Marmion well ahead of McGrath.

Rory Best also looks well away from his top form, as do Furlong & Toner, but none of these are under selection scrutiny because of past performances at the highest level.

Is it fair that there are duel standards for selection? Yes, IMO, because players who have performed at the top of their game in big matches previously have demonstrated already that they can get to the required level on a given big day and that level is higher than their competition.

[LeRouxIsPHat]

I don't think it's black and white, you need a mix of guys who are in form and guys who are experienced. I know we got our preparation horribly wrong in 07 but IIRC we left a lot of young talent at home and the feeling was that they could have sparked something but we doubled down on experience and it didn't work out. You want guys like Kilcoyne to be buzzing around the hotel and itching to play, instead of scrambling for form in pool games that we should be looking to win comfortably. We already have a lot of players who are just coming back from injury (Healy, Sexton, Henshaw, Earls) so if there's a chance to balance that up with someone who looks really sharp then you take that opportunity IMO. I would say that POM, CJ, and Dev are all lucky to travel based on form, but you can't show that kind of blind confidence in everyone.

Some of the experienced guys mentioned above have been poor for a while now so I don't buy the idea that they're aiming to peak in a few weeks. Apparently Best made 12 tackles yesterday but he still looks so underpowered and that goes back 12 months at this stage. I agreed with RTB about Jack McGrath playing okay against Italy, but he was way off the pace in Twickenham and even his best form in the last year has been very average.

I also think that this debate around form and experience is going to be more important in regard to the actual team selections rather than the 31. So obviously Best will/should travel, but does that mean he starts? Not for me. Unless he has a 7/10 performance next week then I want Scannell to start against Scotland.

Edit: I wrote 23 but meant 31.

[Hippo]

I don't think it can be said that Ross Byrne got a fair crack of the whip, given that he was sat behind the worst Irish pack performance in living memory. In contrast, Cary had a comparatively easy ride yesterday but didn't show a huge amount of quality. Tough on Byrne.
It's a good point about players timing their performances to impress pre RWC or (hopefully) during the tournament. I remain very unconvinced by Murray, Best and Sexton in their current form, and that they seem untouchable is a worry.

LRIP I agree 100% about Scannell - and that J McGrath has a load of ground to make up based on recent form.

[cormac]

Kilcoyne's form has been ahead of McGrath since the start of last season. He fully deserves to go to Japan ahead of Jack.

[wise7]

I don't think it can be said that Ross Byrne got a fair crack of the whip, given that he was sat behind the worst Irish pack performance in living memory. In contrast, Cary had a comparatively easy ride yesterday but didn't show a huge amount of quality. Tough on Byrne.
It's a good point about players timing their performances to impress pre RWC or (hopefully) during the tournament. I remain very unconvinced by Murray, Best and Sexton in their current form, and that they seem untouchable is a worry.

LRIP I agree 100% about Scannell - and that J McGrath has a load of ground to make up based on recent form.

Agree with you on Byrne not getting a fair crack at it. Carty yesterday was never tested and compared to Twickenham it was a teddybear's picnic. Test level 10's can't afford to have a teturn of 2 out of 4 from the tee. They also can't afford to kick poorly out of hand and butcher a certain try by throwing a 2 yards forward pass on the line. The contrast between Carty and Patchel was significant with the latter showing what a game managing 10 can do for a team.

[Ruckedtobits]

Watching a recording of Georgia v Scotland, the ball-winning and carrying ability of the Scottish back-row (and hooker McNally) is very evident and in distinct contrast to Ireland. Yes, they were playing a Tier 2 nation, but one with a strong pack and a very enthusiastic crowd, but the skill over the ball of Watson, McNally and Barclay was impressive. The Scottish front five also syrvived a torrid examination in scrum and maul and didn't noticably wilt.

A decent contest, even if the scoreline was a bit one-sided. Georgia has the potential to become the 'European Samoa' with hard tackling and explosive running. Well beaten but learning all the time against Tier 1 countries.

[ronk]

Kilcoyne's form has been ahead of McGrath since the start of last season. He fully deserves to go to Japan ahead of Jack.

I'm a fan of McGrath but I agree with you. They're different players and have different strengths (so it's harder for McGrath to stand out).

McGrath's form hasn't quite been there and it's a bit late to suddenly expect him to reach that standard again. He might later, now seems unlikely.

[cormac]

Kilcoyne's form has been ahead of McGrath since the start of last season. He fully deserves to go to Japan ahead of Jack.

I'm a fan of McGrath but I agree with you. They're different players and have different strengths (so it's harder for McGrath to stand out).

McGrath's form hasn't quite been there and it's a bit late to suddenly expect him to reach that standard again. He might later, now seems unlikely.

If he's going to regain the form that got him on the Lions Tour in 2017 he needs to be starting games regularly and he's not going to get that with Ireland in the short-term.

[Oldschool]

Scots first up, what will Townsend make of Joe's 31.
Are there clues in the make up of the squad to the way Ireland are going to play.
Can he even conclude what our starting 15 and 23 is likely to be.
Speaking of which what is Joe's likely starting 15 and bench for the winner takes all first RWC test.

[wixfjord]

Our starting 15 is fairly set in stone bar 1/2 positions.
I'm sure Townsend is aware of this.
Only contentious decisions are really the back row and 12.

Healy, Best, Furlong, Henderson, Ryan, POM, VDF, Stander/Conan, Murray, Sexton, Stockdale, Henshaw/Aki, Ringrose, Earls, RK.

You could probably take a good guess that it'll be Stander and Henshaw too.

[Oldschool]

Our starting 15 is fairly set in stone bar 1/2 positions.
I'm sure Townsend is aware of this.
Only contentious decisions are really the back row and 12.

Healy, Best, Furlong, Henderson, Ryan, POM, VDF, Stander/Conan, Murray, Sexton, Stockdale, Henshaw/Aki, Ringrose, Earls, RK.

You could probably take a good guess that it'll be Stander and Henshaw too.

Hard to argue with that.

[ronk]

If he's going to regain the form that got him on the Lions Tour in 2017 he needs to be starting games regularly and he's not going to get that with Ireland in the short-term.

He moved to Ulster.

It's interesting that the 2 guys who left Leinster to protect their international place didn't make the cut. (Carbery was solid either way).

[Ruckedtobits]

If he's going to regain the form that got him on the Lions Tour in 2017 he needs to be starting games regularly and he's not going to get that with Ireland in the short-term.

He moved to Ulster.

It's interesting that the 2 guys who left Leinster to protect their international place didn't make the cut. (Carbery was solid either way).

Certainly buries some of the theories about "he was promised....."

[olaf the fat]

"Healy, Best, Furlong, Henderson, Ryan, POM, VDF, Stander/Conan, Murray, Sexton, Stockdale, Henshaw/Aki, Ringrose, Earls, RK."

Pretty much set in stone alright - that's the problem of late though, very predictable plays that almost everybody has the measure of, and some players either fighting form or old age which takes away the 1 or 2 % needed to win big games.

Scotland vs Ireland could go either way - leaving us needing to beat the hosts. That will lead to a whole heap of pressure. I think our team can raise it and go in hopeful against SA in the QF - getting there might be the problem though.

[ronk]

If he's going to regain the form that got him on the Lions Tour in 2017 he needs to be starting games regularly and he's not going to get that with Ireland in the short-term.

He moved to Ulster.

It's interesting that the 2 guys who left Leinster to protect their international place didn't make the cut. (Carbery was solid either way).

Certainly buries some of the theories about "he was promised....."

A promise doesn't mean much to a retiring coach.

They were promised that it would help their selection. Maybe the costs outweighed the benefits.

[Oldschool]

Promises are like hostages to fortune.
Guaranteed to cause problems.

[neill_m]

Japan hosting South Africa in Kumagaya (Fri 11:15am Irish Time). South Africa have not spared the horses with their team, so will be an interesting one to keep an eye on. No tv coverage to best of my understanding. In other news bookies really fearing for Russia in RWC, Japan are now -40 on the handicap in the 1st game of the tournament.

Georgia's poor showing v Scotland now means Wales are -27 when they meet in the pool.

[jimbobjoe]

Japan hosting South Africa in Kumagaya (Fri 11:15am Irish Time). South Africa have not spared the horses with their team, so will be an interesting one to keep an eye on. No tv coverage to best of my understanding. In other news bookies really fearing for Russia in RWC, Japan are now -40 on the handicap in the 1st game of the tournament.

Georgia's poor showing v Scotland now means Wales are -27 when they meet in the pool.

For those of us not in work or able to view a screen on the sly - Japan v SA might be available to stream on Modbro as Supersport are broadcasting it. Ultimate rugby also mentions ESPN scrum as a broadcaster.

[neill_m]

Japan hosting South Africa in Kumagaya (Fri 11:15am Irish Time). South Africa have not spared the horses with their team, so will be an interesting one to keep an eye on. No tv coverage to best of my understanding. In other news bookies really fearing for Russia in RWC, Japan are now -40 on the handicap in the 1st game of the tournament.

Georgia's poor showing v Scotland now means Wales are -27 when they meet in the pool.

For those of us not in work or able to view a screen on the sly - Japan v SA might be available to stream on Modbro as Supersport are broadcasting it. Ultimate rugby also mentions ESPN scrum as a broadcaster.

You lost me at Modbro - tech dinosaur myself. If its on tv great, if not so be it