HEC 2012/13 Qualification - Ifs and Buts
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Re: HEC 2012/13 Qualification - Ifs and Buts
Ulster have never won a competitive game in France. Sarries have Embra at home who are as we have just seen pure gash. Ulster could end up away in the quarters.
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Re: HEC 2012/13 Qualification - Ifs and Buts
I have to say that I think this is the most overhyped statistic in the Heineken Cup. Ulster have been a completely different side for the past two seasons compared to who they were for the previous decade. In that time, they have played away in France twice.johng wrote:Ulster have never won a competitive game in France.
At the very start of their rejuvenation, they lost badly away to Biarritz in October 2010, as much through poor team selection as anything else. They picked David McIlwaine (no longer playing first tier rugby) at full-back, who had a nightmare, and they picked Ian Whitten at 13 instead of the late, great Nevin Spence.
More recently, in January 2012, they were absolutely robbed by Dave Pearson away to Clermont. They didn't look out of their depth, they didn't panic, they dominated the game against a top French side who needed to win as badly as they did.
Castres are an average team who are out of the competition. Ulster are a great team who desperately need a win. I don't think they'll run away with it, but I think they'll get a win.
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Re: HEC 2012/13 Qualification - Ifs and Buts
anyone got a results predictor site??
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Re: HEC 2012/13 Qualification - Ifs and Buts
Like most French teams they hate losing at home. They are hard to beat there. We couldn't do it ourselves the year we won our first Heino. I'm not saying Ulster won't do it, I reckon they probably will, but Saracens will have an easier task putting 4 tries past Embra in where ever they call home next week.tackle-bag wrote:I have to say that I think this is the most overhyped statistic in the Heineken Cup. Ulster have been a completely different side for the past two seasons compared to who they were for the previous decade. In that time, they have played away in France twice.johng wrote:Ulster have never won a competitive game in France.
At the very start of their rejuvenation, they lost badly away to Biarritz in October 2010, as much through poor team selection as anything else. They picked David McIlwaine (no longer playing first tier rugby) at full-back, who had a nightmare, and they picked Ian Whitten at 13 instead of the late, great Nevin Spence.
More recently, in January 2012, they were absolutely robbed by Dave Pearson away to Clermont. They didn't look out of their depth, they didn't panic, they dominated the game against a top French side who needed to win as badly as they did.
Castres are an average team who are out of the competition. Ulster are a great team who desperately need a win. I don't think they'll run away with it, but I think they'll get a win.
Re: HEC 2012/13 Qualification - Ifs and Buts
I think Ulster could end up away from home even if they win. I expect Saracens to win with a BP. If that happens, Ulster need to win and score at least three tries to finish ahead of Saracens. They're 23 points behind on points scored so they won't beat Saracens in the tie breaker. They need to win with a BP in France really. Clermont, Toulon and Quins have three of the spots sewn up already with their massive try counts. I can see Ulster having to go away to Saracens in the QF.johng wrote:Ulster have never won a competitive game in France. Sarries have Embra at home who are as we have just seen pure gash. Ulster could end up away in the quarters.
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Re: HEC 2012/13 Qualification - Ifs and Buts
ceemec wrote:I think Ulster could end up away from home even if they win. I expect Saracens to win with a BP. If that happens, Ulster need to win and score at least three tries to finish ahead of Saracens. They're 23 points behind on points scored so they won't beat Saracens in the tie breaker. They need to win with a BP in France really. Clermont, Toulon and Quins have three of the spots sewn up already with their massive try counts. I can see Ulster having to go away to Saracens in the QF.johng wrote:Ulster have never won a competitive game in France. Sarries have Embra at home who are as we have just seen pure gash. Ulster could end up away in the quarters.
And of all away trips that's the one Ulster are best suited to. IMO.
Looks like it's Sarries home or away, more likely away. Injuries are now key for Ulster.
Re: HEC 2012/13 Qualification - Ifs and Buts
johng wrote:Like most French teams they hate losing at home. They are hard to beat there. We couldn't do it ourselves the year we won our first Heino. I'm not saying Ulster won't do it, I reckon they probably will, but Saracens will have an easier task putting 4 tries past Embra in where ever they call home next week.tackle-bag wrote:I have to say that I think this is the most overhyped statistic in the Heineken Cup. Ulster have been a completely different side for the past two seasons compared to who they were for the previous decade. In that time, they have played away in France twice.johng wrote:Ulster have never won a competitive game in France.
At the very start of their rejuvenation, they lost badly away to Biarritz in October 2010, as much through poor team selection as anything else. They picked David McIlwaine (no longer playing first tier rugby) at full-back, who had a nightmare, and they picked Ian Whitten at 13 instead of the late, great Nevin Spence.
More recently, in January 2012, they were absolutely robbed by Dave Pearson away to Clermont. They didn't look out of their depth, they didn't panic, they dominated the game against a top French side who needed to win as badly as they did.
Castres are an average team who are out of the competition. Ulster are a great team who desperately need a win. I don't think they'll run away with it, but I think they'll get a win.
that's what most worries me about the Toulon at MontP clash. Hope I'm wrong and T win (but not win too well!!)
Re: HEC 2012/13 Qualification - Ifs and Buts
I suppose I should nail my colours to the mast.
Not sure if this is wishful thinking but.....
Not sure if this is wishful thinking but.....
Quins 28 ASM Clermont 28 Toulon 27 Saracens 23 Ulster 23 Toulouse 22 Munster 20 Leinster 20Ulster Sarries could easily be the other way round. But then again Munster and/or Leinster could easily be in the Amlin too.
Re: HEC 2012/13 Qualification - Ifs and Buts
Just went through the fixtures and had Ulster and Saracens reversed but everyone else the same. A return trip to the Stoop would be tasty. (that's blood in the smiley's mouth BTW).johng wrote:I suppose I should nail my colours to the mast.
Not sure if this is wishful thinking but.....
Quins 28 ASM Clermont 28 Toulon 27 Saracens 23 Ulster 23 Toulouse 22 Munster 20 Leinster 20Ulster Sarries could easily be the other way round. But then again Munster and/or Leinster could easily be in the Amlin too.
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Re: HEC 2012/13 Qualification - Ifs and Buts
I think we're gone. Montpelier will beat Toulon at home and Munster have a distinct advantage of knowing exactly what they gotta do on Sunday.
I have a horrible, sick feeling they will be the ones that knock us out. I think we'll both finish on 20 points, but they will pip us to the last spot by a single try. Thornley will talk about "one of those Thomand Park nights" and it will be at our expense.
Harlequins (28) v Munster (20)
Clermont (28) v Montpelier (22)
Toulon (24) v Leicester(20)
Saracens (23) v Ulster (23)
I have a horrible, sick feeling they will be the ones that knock us out. I think we'll both finish on 20 points, but they will pip us to the last spot by a single try. Thornley will talk about "one of those Thomand Park nights" and it will be at our expense.
Harlequins (28) v Munster (20)
Clermont (28) v Montpelier (22)
Toulon (24) v Leicester(20)
Saracens (23) v Ulster (23)
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Re: HEC 2012/13 Qualification - Ifs and Buts
I agree with all those individual predictions, especially when you see Toulon probobly knowing a home qf only needs to lose by less than 21pts.suisse wrote:I think we're gone. Montpelier will beat Toulon at home and Munster have a distinct advantage of knowing exactly what they gotta do on Sunday.
I have a horrible, sick feeling they will be the ones that knock us out. I think we'll both finish on 20 points, but they will pip us to the last spot by a single try. Thornley will talk about "one of those Thomand Park nights" and it will be at our expense.
Harlequins (28) v Munster (20)
Clermont (28) v Montpelier (22)
Toulon (24) v Leicester(20)
Saracens (23) v Ulster (23)
Only thing is the HC always throws up surprises - Something unlikely will happen, my guess is Glasgow vs N'Hampton which is useless to us but every year throws up something. Hopefully Leinster getting through on 10 pts after r4 is this years "story".
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Re: HEC 2012/13 Qualification - Ifs and Buts
My predictions:
Connacht Rugby v Zebre Connacht BP win
Biarritz Olympique Pays Basque v Harlequins Quins win - Biarritz LBP
Glasgow Warriors v Northampton Saints Northampton win
Castres Olympique v Ulster Rugby Ulster win
Cardiff Blues v Sale Sharks Cardiff win
Montpellier v Toulon Toulon win, Montpellier LBP
Exeter Chiefs v Leinster Rugby Leinster BP win (because it has to be )
Scarlets v ASM Clermont Auvergne Clermont BP win
Munster Rugby v Racing Métro 92 Munster BP win
Saracens v Edinburgh Rugby Saracens BP win
Leicester Tigers v Toulouse Toulouse win, Leicester LBP
Benetton Treviso v Ospreys Ospreys win
Group 1
Saracens 23
Munster 20
Group 2
Toulouse 22
Leicester 17
Group 3
Quins 28
Biarritz 15
Group 4
Ulster 23
Saints 18
Group 5
Clermont 28
Leinster 20
Group 6
Toulon 27
Montpellier 19
Quarter-Finals
EDITED - DID MY MATHS WRONG
Quins v Leinster
Clermont v Munster
Toulon v Toulouse
Ulster v Saracens
Connacht Rugby v Zebre Connacht BP win
Biarritz Olympique Pays Basque v Harlequins Quins win - Biarritz LBP
Glasgow Warriors v Northampton Saints Northampton win
Castres Olympique v Ulster Rugby Ulster win
Cardiff Blues v Sale Sharks Cardiff win
Montpellier v Toulon Toulon win, Montpellier LBP
Exeter Chiefs v Leinster Rugby Leinster BP win (because it has to be )
Scarlets v ASM Clermont Auvergne Clermont BP win
Munster Rugby v Racing Métro 92 Munster BP win
Saracens v Edinburgh Rugby Saracens BP win
Leicester Tigers v Toulouse Toulouse win, Leicester LBP
Benetton Treviso v Ospreys Ospreys win
Group 1
Saracens 23
Munster 20
Group 2
Toulouse 22
Leicester 17
Group 3
Quins 28
Biarritz 15
Group 4
Ulster 23
Saints 18
Group 5
Clermont 28
Leinster 20
Group 6
Toulon 27
Montpellier 19
Quarter-Finals
EDITED - DID MY MATHS WRONG
Quins v Leinster
Clermont v Munster
Toulon v Toulouse
Ulster v Saracens
Last edited by [Jackass] on January 14th, 2013, 10:26 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: HEC 2012/13 Qualification - Ifs and Buts
And you know what the most ironic thing is?
Having lost to them twice, I wouldn't be surprised with a full strength team we went to Clermont and beat them!!
How much of a sickener would that be for them? We just can't avoid eachother and we'd keep fu*king them over when it counts!!*
EDIT - Did my maths wrong, but actually, works out better! Back to the stoop!!!
Having lost to them twice, I wouldn't be surprised with a full strength team we went to Clermont and beat them!!
How much of a sickener would that be for them? We just can't avoid eachother and we'd keep fu*king them over when it counts!!*
EDIT - Did my maths wrong, but actually, works out better! Back to the stoop!!!
Last edited by [Jackass] on January 14th, 2013, 10:27 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: HEC 2012/13 Qualification - Ifs and Buts
In 2001 and 2008, Clermont beat Toulouse twice and Toulouse beat Clermont at least.
But it was before the End of the World.
Au revoir.
But it was before the End of the World.
Au revoir.
(...) je souhaite que la Providence veille sur la France, pour son bonheur, pour son bien et pour sa grandeur. Au revoir !
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Re: HEC 2012/13 Qualification - Ifs and Buts
Castres have played at home in the last round of the HEC 4 times in the last 6 seasons, and lost 3 times out of 4. That suggests they don't exactly bust a gut in this situation, but don't roll over either.johng wrote:Like most French teams they hate losing at home. They are hard to beat there. We couldn't do it ourselves the year we won our first Heino. I'm not saying Ulster won't do it, I reckon they probably will, but Saracens will have an easier task putting 4 tries past Embra in where ever they call home next week.tackle-bag wrote:I have to say that I think this is the most overhyped statistic in the Heineken Cup. Ulster have been a completely different side for the past two seasons compared to who they were for the previous decade. In that time, they have played away in France twice.johng wrote:Ulster have never won a competitive game in France.
At the very start of their rejuvenation, they lost badly away to Biarritz in October 2010, as much through poor team selection as anything else. They picked David McIlwaine (no longer playing first tier rugby) at full-back, who had a nightmare, and they picked Ian Whitten at 13 instead of the late, great Nevin Spence.
More recently, in January 2012, they were absolutely robbed by Dave Pearson away to Clermont. They didn't look out of their depth, they didn't panic, they dominated the game against a top French side who needed to win as badly as they did.
Castres are an average team who are out of the competition. Ulster are a great team who desperately need a win. I don't think they'll run away with it, but I think they'll get a win.
Sarries have the advantage of playing on Sunday so they will know exactly what they need to do to get a home QF, so I can see Ulster winning in Castres without a TBP, but then Sarries will know how many tries they need to overtake Ulster.
Ulster are currently on 12 tries scored, Sarries on 10.
Re: HEC 2012/13 Qualification - Ifs and Buts
If I have it right what we are looking for is:
Munster lose, draw, win with no bonus point
Toulouse win or draw
Toulon win or draw
With us getting the TBP of course.
Would be happy with going to the Stoop. Munster going to Clermont would be an interesting benchmark of where Munster are at the moment. I would fear for them. At this point I would be happy with any QF.
Munster lose, draw, win with no bonus point
Toulouse win or draw
Toulon win or draw
With us getting the TBP of course.
Would be happy with going to the Stoop. Munster going to Clermont would be an interesting benchmark of where Munster are at the moment. I would fear for them. At this point I would be happy with any QF.
Re: HEC 2012/13 Qualification - Ifs and Buts
A Toulon draw with Montpellier is definitely not something we should be hoping for - we NEED Toulon to win as a draw will put both teams through.Fireworks wrote:If I have it right what we are looking for is:
Munster lose, draw, win with no bonus point
Toulouse win or draw
Toulon win or draw
With us getting the TBP of course.
Would be happy with going to the Stoop. Munster going to Clermont would be an interesting benchmark of where Munster are at the moment. I would fear for them. At this point I would be happy with any QF.
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