Friday's Rave

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Re: Friday's Rave

Postby Oldschool » August 5th, 2019, 9:10 am

Oldschoolsocks wrote:Oh right, so no reason beyond your “feels”

Get a grip.
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Re: Friday's Rave

Postby Oldschoolsocks » August 5th, 2019, 10:13 pm

Oldschool wrote:
Oldschoolsocks wrote:Oh right, so no reason beyond your “feels”

Get a grip.


On your naivety?? No thanks !!!
I just wanted to see Gordon D'Arcy get a 'back, sack and crack wax'
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Re: Friday's Rave

Postby The Doc » August 6th, 2019, 12:04 pm

Oldschoolsocks wrote:
Oldschool wrote:
Ruckedtobits wrote:The Great Hack is a documentary film produced by Netflix which scared the s#*t out of me. Never simplistic, but not so technical it becomes impossible to understand, this 2 hour movie documents how Cambridge Analitica worked for both the Trump organisation and various other Goverments around the world to influence voters. They did so by analysis of huge amounts of personal data points garnered through access to Facebook and other social media sites.

CA targeted voters in marginal regional areas in swing States in the US with specific mixes of social media stories and information streamed at the voters by a variety of different social media sources and paid for as advertising. So effectively, their data analysis was combined with specific psychological manipulation operation programmes, originally developed for Cold War era campaigns by UK & US Goverments, to convince largely undecided voters to support particular candidates - notably Trump in the 2016 Presidential Election. They also worked with the Leave.uk campaign in the Brexit Referendum in June 2016.

The picture is credible. The pace excellent and the footage is edgy. The overall effect is to undermine the fundamental belief in the democratic process.

The movie was released on 24th July.

Social media is evil.
Imagine what somebody like Hitler could do today.
As regards the film, you can be damn sure that if Trump was using that stuff then so were his opponents.
Ditto for the the UK.
They'd all use it.


How can you be damn sure his opponents were using it???


The Trump campaign outspent the Democrats approx. 7/8 : 1 on Facebook ads. The Democrats focussed spend on TV ads (outspending GOP at least 2:1). Trump's campaign had access to Cambridge Analytica analysis which, at the very least provided micro targeting information (CA only worked with GOP - naturally given who established it). Democrat on-line campaign was a development of Obama's - essentially general, mass market videos more like on-line TV ads. Trump campaign produced something like 50,000 variations of ads targeted at specific micro groups and also at voter suppression.

Add to that the activity of third parties - though you can take various views on how effective they were - which were mainly helpful to Trump.

Trump won the electoral college pretty much by 70k voters spread over three states - in fact only certain counties in those states which they had micro targeted.

The same is true with the Brexit vote - the Remain campaign (and parts of the official Leave campaign tbh), dismissed focussing on on-line strategies and directed most spend to traditional routes. Again you can argue how effective the Facebook strategy was but it was again a fairly small number of votes - and it was a swing that happened in the last few days
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Re: Friday's Rave

Postby Ruckedtobits » August 7th, 2019, 10:06 am

Its the manipulation of election results by micro-targeting of a tiny minority of the electorate which concerns me most. However, if everyone is at it in the same way, it should even out. But are they?

There is no evidence to date that either Obama or Clinton used multiple data points derived by use of algorithym technology and then targeted the identified persons with specific 'news' items to influence their electoral choices. This is the behaviour that suggests that those with enough money and no respect for democracy can win elections anywhere in the world.
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Re: Friday's Rave

Postby fourthirtythree » August 7th, 2019, 11:17 am

There's plenty of evidence that the West spent a lot of money to manipulate elections and political movements in Eastern and Central Europe which enraged Russia. It was presented here as a big win for democracy at the time. But that's such a vague concept. Plenty of people here were lauding the ouster of the democratically elected government of Egypt by the Western backed military and the slaughter of its supporters as being a great thing for democracy too. Most military putsches in support of capitalism are presented as good for democracy and have been since the second world war.

I would be really doubtful that Cambridge Analytica's success was anything like it's presented as. If it were behavioural advertising would actually work! And, fact is, it doesn't. The numbers in the wider world don't support it.

What they did was illegal though and there is a whole load of fascist, and fascist adjacent money thrown at this along with an utter disregard for decency which the far right have demonstrated forever and which they have successfully mainstreamed with the aid of all that money. And the pollution of the discourse to the extent that what the Americans call the Overton Window (that is the range of things that a "reasonable" person can say in political discussion) has shifted so much that actual fascist, actual white supremacist, and actual hate speech rather than far right dog whistles are now the norm.
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Re: Friday's Rave

Postby Oldschool » August 7th, 2019, 3:39 pm

Interesting discussion.
However regardless of the methods used to influence voters, imho Ireland has one of the least democratic electoral systems in the democratic world and as a result is wide open to manipulation of the electorate.
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Re: Friday's Rave

Postby Oldschoolsocks » August 7th, 2019, 8:15 pm

Oldschool wrote:Interesting discussion.
However regardless of the methods used to influence voters, imho Ireland has one of the least democratic electoral systems in the democratic world and as a result is wide open to manipulation of the electorate.

I assume you actually have something to base this on??
I just wanted to see Gordon D'Arcy get a 'back, sack and crack wax'
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Re: Friday's Rave

Postby fourthirtythree » August 7th, 2019, 9:07 pm

We should totally follow England's first past the post system, that's democratic. Or the US's legalised (recently) gerrymandering where black people struggle to either vote or have it count. They're so democratic /s

Actually, of all people, computer scientists tend to have the most complicated opinions on voting systems...

Mind you, none of them support electro oc voting obviously.
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Re: Friday's Rave

Postby Oldschool » August 7th, 2019, 9:40 pm

Oldschoolsocks wrote:
Oldschool wrote:Interesting discussion.
However regardless of the methods used to influence voters, imho Ireland has one of the least democratic electoral systems in the democratic world and as a result is wide open to manipulation of the electorate.

I assume you actually have something to base this on??

Are you for real?
But think about it.
Our system doesn't just tell the politicians our first choice, it gives them so much info that if properly analyzed it tells them who, what and where they need to manipulate.
On top of that we are over represented which makes the problem worse.
Add in the fact that power is concentrated on one person, the Taoiseach of the day.
Gerrymandering didn't just happen north of the border or elsewhere it happened in the ROI too.
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Re: Friday's Rave

Postby ronk » August 8th, 2019, 2:54 am

Rave thread is for raving
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Re: Friday's Rave

Postby Laighin Break » August 10th, 2019, 9:13 am

I haven't watched The Hack yet but do intend to.
However Netflix do have history of sharing inaccurate or agenda-based documentaries - see What The Health.
In one episode of Michael Lewis' podcast "Against The Rules" he discusses Cambridge Analytica and interviews the main computer scientist (Russian hacker as some like to think of him as) behind the company. Worth a listen. According to the guy they felt their predictive analysis was correct about 1% of the time. As for Trump's competitor's using it, they were first working for one of his Republican competitor's, who failed to win the Rep nominee, before working for Trump.

Weapons Of Math Destruction is an excellent book on how comluter algorithms are used to prey on different groups of people (bank loans, payday loans, college admissions...)
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