Corona Virus

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Re: Corona Virus

Postby paddyor » May 13th, 2020, 3:12 pm

Oldschool wrote:Slaintecare Report.
51 pages of political aspirations.
In other words how to waste the taxpayer's money.
How about sorting out the ongoing waste first.
Example - We spending a fortune to the private hospitals at the moment.
What are we getting for that money.
We were told that the public hospitals were going to be used to handle COVID and the private hospitals would look after the rest.
Larry Goodman must be laughing all the way to the bank and not for the first time on public largesse.
What is the point of trying to force Consultants to take the A Contract.
Sort out their insurance costs first by legislating for claim costs.
The politicians solutions is to publish Slaintecare and then hand it over to the DOH and HSE to implement it.
Does anyone believe that is going to work.
The failure to advise the general public to wear face masks is a disgrace, particularly at this point in time given
A. The HSE has cornered the market for medical standard masks and you couldn't get one even if you wanted to.
B. That restrictions are being eased and there is a likely to be a rise in cases, face masks would reduce the risk of transmission.
Are the HSE aware that, if the wearing of facemasks reduces the rate of transmission then the demand on the health system will be reduced also IE less cases, less deaths.

Haven't read Slaintecare but 51 pages of bi-partisan policy goals is generally a good place to start. Figure out where you want to go and get everyone on board.

I think 120m per month for access to 4k hospital beds and staffing is a steal tbqh. That's a 40% increase in hospital beds for 1.5bn a year. Not sure of the ICU gain. They've had to refund health insurance so are in all likelihood losing money like every other business out there.

I think face masks will be a disaster. I've had people brushing by me like they're invincible. And it'll likely lead to increased touching of the face.
Ruddock's tackle stats consistently too low for me to be taken seriously as a Six Nations blindside..... Ruddock's defensive stats don't stack up. - All Blacks Nil, Jan 15th, 2014
England A 8 - 14 Ireland A, 25th Jan 2014
Ruddock(c) 19/2 Tackles
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Re: Corona Virus

Postby Oldschool » May 13th, 2020, 4:02 pm

paddyor wrote:
Oldschool wrote:Slaintecare Report.
51 pages of political aspirations.
In other words how to waste the taxpayer's money.
How about sorting out the ongoing waste first.
Example - We spending a fortune to the private hospitals at the moment.
What are we getting for that money.
We were told that the public hospitals were going to be used to handle COVID and the private hospitals would look after the rest.
Larry Goodman must be laughing all the way to the bank and not for the first time on public largesse.
What is the point of trying to force Consultants to take the A Contract.
Sort out their insurance costs first by legislating for claim costs.
The politicians solutions is to publish Slaintecare and then hand it over to the DOH and HSE to implement it.
Does anyone believe that is going to work.
The failure to advise the general public to wear face masks is a disgrace, particularly at this point in time given
A. The HSE has cornered the market for medical standard masks and you couldn't get one even if you wanted to.
B. That restrictions are being eased and there is a likely to be a rise in cases, face masks would reduce the risk of transmission.
Are the HSE aware that, if the wearing of facemasks reduces the rate of transmission then the demand on the health system will be reduced also IE less cases, less deaths.

Haven't read Slaintecare but 51 pages of bi-partisan policy goals is generally a good place to start. Figure out where you want to go and get everyone on board.

I think 120m per month for access to 4k hospital beds and staffing is a steal tbqh. That's a 40% increase in hospital beds for 1.5bn a year. Not sure of the ICU gain. They've had to refund health insurance so are in all likelihood losing money like every other business out there.

I think face masks will be a disaster. I've had people brushing by me like they're invincible. And it'll likely lead to increased touching of the face.

Maybe I'm just being old and cynical but when politicians vote in favour of spending a lot of money and don't query why we are where we are (before COVID) then I hear alarm bells, let's just throw money at the problem and say to the public "look we are going to spend xbn over ten years etc etc" that's two elections away and a lot can and has happened in the meantime.
We can have this discussion again in ten years time.

To be more precise - we've forked out 120m per month, what have we used the asset for, an insurance policy basically.
Which wasn't the stated reason for forking out 120m in the first place.

Would you prefer somebody brushing by you who isn't wearing a face mask because that's happening too.

The CMO and his team are basically treating the general population as if they are imbeciles (or at least with average IQs significantly lower that the rest of the EU's citizens) .
Some of them are but the majority aren't and will be quite able to put on, wear and take off face masks quite safely with a bit of practice. And now is the time to do it with the community R very low.
By way of explanation-
There are a number of Rs not just one.
The R in the Nursing and Care homes was multiples of 1 and may still be above 1 but dropping.
The R in the Health Worker Community must also be high if not greater than 1.
The R in other known clusters (meat factories for example) must also be quite high.
The cluster cases should be containable and unlikely to feed to any great extent into the general community.
The CMO and his team know the precise numbers, they know the situation with testing and any accuracy/reliability issues.
The other indicators are the number of people in hospital and ICU.

It also seems that now might be a good time to develop a little app which people could use assess there own vulnerability and perhaps get some general advice from said app.
A little bit like the BMI calculation which in fact would be one aspect of the app(given what has been pointed out by others)
Questions like - Height, Weight, Age, Sex, are you type 1 Diabetic, are you type 2 Diabetic and similar questions which are relevant COVID risk factors, is your job sedentary and so on.
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Re: Corona Virus

Postby paddyor » May 13th, 2020, 4:33 pm

120m per month for 4k hospital beds and staff isn't a lot of money. Even if it's just an insurance policy. But yes I think this is a reflexive reaction on your part. Feel free to engage your brain and think about it. It takes more than 120m a month to run those hospitals and Larry Goodman is not laughing all the way to the bank. They planned for a disaster and managed to avoid it, that doesn't invalidate the plan. This is like arguing that cases fell after lockdown, thus proving we didn't lockdown.

The models are probably cr@p and unreliable given how incomplete the data they have is . Not something you'd hang your hat on in public. They have a certain utility in private but thats it.

The utility of an app is massively overstated. Good thread on it here. Even if you got 75% take up you'd still have R0>1.5

Good thread on it here.

https://twitter.com/Bugs_Meany/status/1258788221456125955?s=20
Ruddock's tackle stats consistently too low for me to be taken seriously as a Six Nations blindside..... Ruddock's defensive stats don't stack up. - All Blacks Nil, Jan 15th, 2014
England A 8 - 14 Ireland A, 25th Jan 2014
Ruddock(c) 19/2 Tackles
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Re: Corona Virus

Postby Oldschool » May 13th, 2020, 5:51 pm

paddyor wrote:120m per month for 4k hospital beds and staff isn't a lot of money. Even if it's just an insurance policy. But yes I think this is a reflexive reaction on your part. Feel free to engage your brain and think about it. It takes more than 120m a month to run those hospitals and Larry Goodman is not laughing all the way to the bank. They planned for a disaster and managed to avoid it, that doesn't invalidate the plan. This is like arguing that cases fell after lockdown, thus proving we didn't lockdown.

The models are probably cr@p and unreliable given how incomplete the data they have is . Not something you'd hang your hat on in public. They have a certain utility in private but thats it.

The utility of an app is massively overstated. Good thread on it here. Even if you got 75% take up you'd still have R0>1.5

Good thread on it here.

https://twitter.com/Bugs_Meany/status/1258788221456125955?s=20

Not criticising the HSE for taking out an insurance policy, the opposite in fact.
The criticism is that they changed the story
An insurance policy was perfectly justified so why not just say so instead of the business as usual stuff.
Didn't see the need for the reflexive remark.
However you yourself might follow your own advice and reflect on why Luke O'Neil and McConkey etc are recommending the wearing of masks.
It's a fair bet with the country in lockdown and with little to do that the sort of app mentioned might get quite a high hit rate even if only a few people actually react to what it tells them.
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Re: Corona Virus

Postby Oldschool » May 14th, 2020, 8:29 am

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Re: Corona Virus

Postby Ruckedtobits » May 16th, 2020, 11:58 am

Another HSE v DoH clash re "under-reported" Covid cases. Back story of "leak" by a Dept official who may have targeted the Mater before. Journo who was given the "story" on Thursday well pissed-off to have been used to score points in internectine guerilla warfare.
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Re: Corona Virus

Postby Oldschool » May 18th, 2020, 10:30 am


Some more good news.
The noise on the M50 is up considerably this morning.
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Re: Corona Virus

Postby MylesNaGapoleen » May 18th, 2020, 12:29 pm

Oldschool wrote:

Some more good news.
The noise on the M50 is up considerably this morning.


that antibody test was approved weeks ago by the EU...!!

I wonder if the UK held off because they thought a test from public health england that claimed to be a "game changer" turned out to be 50% accurate....UK gov are looking for their money back now for the 3 million tests they ordered from them!!

not often I agree with Michael O leary but he was spot on this morning. the UK govs handling has been nothing other than shambolic. trains and tubes are packed...sardines style in the UK....yet the UK gov insist they have enough police officers to ensure people flying into the UK will stay at home for 14 days.
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Re: Corona Virus

Postby domhnallj » May 18th, 2020, 2:35 pm

MylesNaGapoleen wrote:
Oldschool wrote:

Some more good news.
The noise on the M50 is up considerably this morning.


that antibody test was approved weeks ago by the EU...!!

I wonder if the UK held off because they thought a test from public health england that claimed to be a "game changer" turned out to be 50% accurate....UK gov are looking for their money back now for the 3 million tests they ordered from them!!

not often I agree with Michael O leary but he was spot on this morning. the UK govs handling has been nothing other than shambolic. trains and tubes are packed...sardines style in the UK....yet the UK gov insist they have enough police officers to ensure people flying into the UK will stay at home for 14 days.


I hadn't heard this claim before but it does fit with the lies, misuse of statistics and delusional narrative of English exceptionalism that gets trotted out at the daily briefing. Not even had they not gutted police numbers by 10k during the austerity years could they enforce this.
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Re: Corona Virus

Postby Oldschool » May 19th, 2020, 9:15 am

A Dail committee will interview the CMO,. DOH and HSE head honchos today.
It's a fair bet that this will be a look back instead of a look forward.
Here's an alternative list of questions.

In no particular order.
1. Where you at with starting antibody testing.
2. 22 Countries that have opened schools have indicated that there has been no significant increase in cases, is it time to review your advice on this.
3. Have you already and/or are going to carry out random testing to establish the extent of COVID in the community at this point in time.
4. When will you carry out random antibody tests in the community to establish the overall extent of infection.
5. Reports from both France and England have suggested that COVID was present in their countries before Christmas.
Have you been able to establish if the CV was present here much earlier than the official date.
6. Notwithstanding the fact that we don't yet know how long immunity from CV lasts, have you got a team working on how to implement a herd immunity strategy, given that there is no vaccine exists yet and no guarantee that we will ever have one.
7. Have you done any comparative analysis on the damage that COVID is doing to the non COVID health of people.
8. Have you consider that without a strong economy the resources available to fight COVID will dwindle over time, incomes will be cut, jobs lost and as a result CV testing will be unaffordable.

Feel free to ask your own questions.
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Re: Corona Virus

Postby Oldschool » May 21st, 2020, 6:52 pm

COVID19 may have been in China as early as September.
https://www.newsweek.com/coronavirus-outbreak-september-not-wuhan-1498566
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Re: Corona Virus

Postby Oldschool » May 25th, 2020, 10:29 am

Approx half the cabinet are due to meet the CMO later in the week.
It's time to ambush Dr Tony.
A major issue (for businesses in particular) that is starting to emerge is the restrictiveness of the 2m distancing.
The WHO is recommending 1m.
There is an opportunity for Tony and the boys to have their cake and eat it here.
Reduce the distancing to 1m wherever possible but add the requirement to wear masks, public transport is an obvious one.

Apparently the N95 masks provided protection in both directions.
This might help to make air travel a lot safer and more attractive for anyone thinking about it.
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