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Re: Friday's rant

Postby LeRouxIsPHat » November 7th, 2018, 6:41 pm

cormac wrote:
LeRouxIsPHat wrote:Yeah I get what you mean, but I was still surprised at the way the senate went. Like I said, maybe that's because of the echo chamber I'm in but for the last few weeks I've seen so many democrat politicians, celebs, journalists etc telling people to get out and vote, my Twitter feed last night seemed to indicate a blue wave at first, and CNN seemed to be expecting that too in the build up, whereas the main thing I saw to counter all that was just what Trump was saying and the high profile visits by his family. Even just the number of absentee votes that were sent in early made me think that the democrats would be in great shape.

To not manage that feels like a big disappointment even if the House did go well, and it sounds like the big huge number of new voters weren't just Democrats who kicked into action but Republicans who were triggered too. Trump did well to manage that to be fair to him.


538 website yesterday morning was giving the Democrats only a 12% chance of winning the Senate, while they were forecasting a 87% chance of them winning the House.


Which doesn't make it surprising, but doesn't change the fact that personally I was surprised and disappointed because of the echo chamber that I've already mentioned twice.

Trump is seriously rattled by the sounds of things, maybe it really is a much bigger victory than I'd thought.
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Re: Friday's rant

Postby paddyor » November 7th, 2018, 7:44 pm

LeRouxIsPHat wrote:Which doesn't make it surprising, but doesn't change the fact that personally I was surprised and disappointed because of the echo chamber that I've already mentioned twice.

Trump is seriously rattled by the sounds of things, maybe it really is a much bigger victory than I'd thought.

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Re: Friday's rant

Postby LeRouxIsPHat » November 7th, 2018, 7:56 pm

:lol:
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Re: Friday's rant

Postby Oldschool » November 7th, 2018, 11:07 pm

LeRouxIsPHat wrote:
cormac wrote:
LeRouxIsPHat wrote:Yeah I get what you mean, but I was still surprised at the way the senate went. Like I said, maybe that's because of the echo chamber I'm in but for the last few weeks I've seen so many democrat politicians, celebs, journalists etc telling people to get out and vote, my Twitter feed last night seemed to indicate a blue wave at first, and CNN seemed to be expecting that too in the build up, whereas the main thing I saw to counter all that was just what Trump was saying and the high profile visits by his family. Even just the number of absentee votes that were sent in early made me think that the democrats would be in great shape.

To not manage that feels like a big disappointment even if the House did go well, and it sounds like the big huge number of new voters weren't just Democrats who kicked into action but Republicans who were triggered too. Trump did well to manage that to be fair to him.


538 website yesterday morning was giving the Democrats only a 12% chance of winning the Senate, while they were forecasting a 87% chance of them winning the House.


Which doesn't make it surprising, but doesn't change the fact that personally I was surprised and disappointed because of the echo chamber that I've already mentioned twice.

Trump is seriously rattled by the sounds of things, maybe it really is a much bigger victory than I'd thought.

Nah, it's the aforementioned echo chamber.
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Re: Friday's rant

Postby The Doc » November 8th, 2018, 3:24 pm

LeRouxIsPHat wrote:
cormac wrote:
LeRouxIsPHat wrote:Yeah I get what you mean, but I was still surprised at the way the senate went. Like I said, maybe that's because of the echo chamber I'm in but for the last few weeks I've seen so many democrat politicians, celebs, journalists etc telling people to get out and vote, my Twitter feed last night seemed to indicate a blue wave at first, and CNN seemed to be expecting that too in the build up, whereas the main thing I saw to counter all that was just what Trump was saying and the high profile visits by his family. Even just the number of absentee votes that were sent in early made me think that the democrats would be in great shape.

To not manage that feels like a big disappointment even if the House did go well, and it sounds like the big huge number of new voters weren't just Democrats who kicked into action but Republicans who were triggered too. Trump did well to manage that to be fair to him.


538 website yesterday morning was giving the Democrats only a 12% chance of winning the Senate, while they were forecasting a 87% chance of them winning the House.


Which doesn't make it surprising, but doesn't change the fact that personally I was surprised and disappointed because of the echo chamber that I've already mentioned twice.

Trump is seriously rattled by the sounds of things, maybe it really is a much bigger victory than I'd thought.


I think there is a lot to digest underneath the numbers. Senate was always going to be impossible to win just down to the luck of which seats were up this year. But the "popular vote" for the senate was very interesting - approx. 55%+ if I remember. What it means is the next Senate elections in two years time will have a lot more Republicans defending seats in more moderate areas.

They also won 7 additional Governor races. Important because the districts will be redrawn after 2020 and holding the Governorship allows significant control over the process. There has been a lot of gerrymandering which caused a lot of issues for Democrats in winning house seats. Likewise a significant shift in state legislature seats which again probably have as much impact in terms of practical measures to drive local politics. The original tea party strategy was to affect national politics by first heavily influencing local politics.

Last point - the house seats won are interesting. Not only did they show a reversal from Trump in the rust belt (which Trump will need to get re-elected), but there was a significant shift in traditionally red states like Texas (well traditional since 1964). The dynamic in areas like Dallas, Houston, Austin etc showed a significant shift in voters. By 2020 there is no guarantee a conservative will be able to win these states - or at least will have a big battle on their hands. So they will end up having to work hard to defend their heartland and also see a loss in support in some of the Midwest which effectively won it for Trump.

Not a "wave" - but a significant shift all the way down the ticket. It's going to be a battle over the next 2 years and now that the house has proper oversight, the battle will be going on with constant investigations happening in public. It'll be pretty nasty I would say
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Re: Friday's rant

Postby Peg Leg » November 10th, 2018, 10:44 am

Team selection news articles that don't provide a complete squad selection list at the end.
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Re: Friday's rant

Postby paddyor » November 13th, 2018, 2:06 am

So Arizona Senate has flipped from the GOP to the Dems. Think Florida will probably stay GOP meaning a net pick up of 2 seats for Trump. Dems close to 40 in the house.........

Think this is true.

https://www.commentarymagazine.com/politics-ideas/no-things-arent-good/
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Re: Friday's rant

Postby The Doc » November 13th, 2018, 11:03 am

paddyor wrote:So Arizona Senate has flipped from the GOP to the Dems. Think Florida will probably stay GOP meaning a net pick up of 2 seats for Trump. Dems close to 40 in the house.........

Think this is true.

https://www.commentarymagazine.com/politics-ideas/no-things-arent-good/


First time in 30 years a Democrat won in Arizona Senate. Wouldn't call Florida yet - this one is going to the courts I suspect (why is it always Florida!!!)
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Re: Friday's rant

Postby Dave Cahill » November 13th, 2018, 11:12 am

I sent an email to a chap called Dean thanking him for something.

Autocorrect tried to change Dean's name

Saying 'Thanks Dear...' really would have been a change in our relationship!
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Re: Friday's rant

Postby LeRouxIsPHat » November 22nd, 2018, 6:56 pm

The traffic around Dun Laoghaire today :shock:

Tensions were running very high because of it!
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Re: Friday's rant

Postby Ruckedtobits » December 11th, 2018, 12:20 am

The parallels are not perfect but when one views the Conservative Government's handling of Brexit with the English (and French) Club owners handling of European Rugby competition, one cannot but marvel at what a total cock-up both undertakings have been.

The necessity for real leadership has never been more evident. The absence of it is amply demonstrated as the greatest deficit in any undertaking, but particularly Politics or Sport. Both enterprises were embarked on to demonstrate how could the Plutocrats get greater recompence to reflect 'our true value in the world' and to 'take back control'.

Neither endeavour had any real destination or intrinsic mission, and both lacked any moral justification. Hindsight may reflect that both were doomed to failure. Whether that is a realistic assessment it may be too soon to assess. However, what is certain is that no leader has emerged in European Rugby to lead it out of the morass that has enveloped the Competitions. The same is true across the current UK political horizon.

Bring back John Major. The man had class, erudiction and leadership and all three are sorely needed at present.
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Re: Friday's rant

Postby LeRouxIsPHat » December 11th, 2018, 12:29 am

The inevitability of today/this week is what grinds my gears about it, May is just sleepwalking into her eventual demise and it does nobody any favours. There was always going to be zero chance of her holding onto power after going down this route, she may as well have done the right thing as well as the ballsy thing and tried to reverse the whole process.

Seeing as you mentioned him, saw on the news that John Major gave a talk here today and I couldn't get over how young he looked, hasn't aged in years.
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Re: Friday's rant

Postby paddyor » December 11th, 2018, 12:58 am

Here's my rant.

Why doers Theresa May get such sh8t about this when it's very clearly the ERG who've made such a balls of things?
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Re: Friday's rant

Postby paddyor » December 11th, 2018, 1:06 am

Ruckedtobits wrote:The parallels are not perfect but when one views the Conservative Government's handling of Brexit with the English (and French) Club owners handling of European Rugby competition, one cannot but marvel at what a total cock-up both undertakings have been.

The necessity for real leadership has never been more evident. The absence of it is amply demonstrated as the greatest deficit in any undertaking, but particularly Politics or Sport. Both enterprises were embarked on to demonstrate how could the Plutocrats get greater recompence to reflect 'our true value in the world' and to 'take back control'.

Neither endeavour had any real destination or intrinsic mission, and both lacked any moral justification. Hindsight may reflect that both were doomed to failure. Whether that is a realistic assessment it may be too soon to assess. However, what is certain is that no leader has emerged in European Rugby to lead it out of the morass that has enveloped the Competitions. The same is true across the current UK political horizon.

Bring back John Major. The man had class, erudiction and leadership and all three are sorely needed at present.

What is weird about the HEC now is the way the GP has completely fallen away. If you look at the table there's about 6-7 teams separated by about 4pts. There's a massive gap back between Saracens and Exeter to the next 2 and bigger again to the rest. I always thought that the middle of the GP was stronger than the Pro14 but that's gone now. They're probably alone in terms of playing the front liners as much as they do. The Top14 at least gives the Espoirs ago in away games. I wonder has that short term view that every game matters(after all the winner takes 8th game of the weekend is so important -especially at the end of the season when relegation is more or less gone) is starting to back fire. Like they're playing too few players too much and the squads aren't big enough to sustain competiion for places. I bet a breakdown would show the French spend way more as a % of their cap/salary on academy and squad players.
Ruddock's tackle stats consistently too low for me to be taken seriously as a Six Nations blindside..... Ruddock's defensive stats don't stack up. - All Blacks Nil, Jan 15th, 2014
England A 8 - 14 Ireland A, 25th Jan 2014
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Re: Friday's rant

Postby hugonaut » December 11th, 2018, 7:57 am

Ruckedtobits wrote:The parallels are not perfect but when one views the Conservative Government's handling of Brexit with the English (and French) Club owners handling of European Rugby competition, one cannot but marvel at what a total cock-up both undertakings have been.

The necessity for real leadership has never been more evident. The absence of it is amply demonstrated as the greatest deficit in any undertaking, but particularly Politics or Sport. Both enterprises were embarked on to demonstrate how could the Plutocrats get greater recompence to reflect 'our true value in the world' and to 'take back control'.

Neither endeavour had any real destination or intrinsic mission, and both lacked any moral justification. Hindsight may reflect that both were doomed to failure. Whether that is a realistic assessment it may be too soon to assess. However, what is certain is that no leader has emerged in European Rugby to lead it out of the morass that has enveloped the Competitions. The same is true across the current UK political horizon.

Bring back John Major. The man had class, erudiction and leadership and all three are sorely needed at present.


The parallels might not be perfect but they are very, very strong.
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Re: Friday's rant

Postby Laighin Break » December 11th, 2018, 8:58 am

paddyor wrote:Here's my rant.

Why doers Theresa May get such sh8t about this when it's very clearly the ERG who've made such a balls of things?


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Re: Friday's rant

Postby Oldschool » December 11th, 2018, 12:05 pm

David Cameron had the necessary leadership qualities and yet he wasn't able to prevent the euroseptic rump of his party, with the aid of Corbyn and the inept EU, from getting the result they wanted in the referendum.
Comparison with the rugby leadership aren't really relevant.
The PRL is answerable only to itself and perhaps their bankers/bankrollers.
May is honour bound to implement the will of the people.
Anything else is a serious breach of democracy.
For example, following the gay etc rights referendum here. If the government had then refused to implement the legislation what then?
It's a mess and the same people who created the mess are still stirring it.
Both sides are out marching already
May will go, there will be another general election.
What then?
Leadership conundrum - you can LEAD a horse to water but you can't make it drink.
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Re: Friday's rant

Postby domhnallj » December 11th, 2018, 12:22 pm

Oldschool wrote:David Cameron had the necessary leadership qualities and yet he wasn't able to prevent the euroseptic rump of his party, with the aid of Corbyn and the inept EU, from getting the result they wanted in the referendum.
Comparison with the rugby leadership aren't really relevant.
The PRL is answerable only to itself and perhaps their bankers/bankrollers.
May is honour bound to implement the will of the people.
Anything else is a serious breach of democracy.
For example, following the gay etc rights referendum here. If the government had then refused to implement the legislation what then?
It's a mess and the same people who created the mess are still stirring it.
Both sides are out marching already
May will go, there will be another general election.
What then?
Leadership conundrum - you can LEAD a horse to water but you can't make it drink.


Cameron was the worst PM ever (until May) who pandered the blueKip wing of his party and then absolutely shat himself when his kippers started to defect to UKIP. He coughed up a referendum purely to hold and shore up the tory vote. Then he made the disatarous decision (for us) to lead the remain campaign in a 50:50 referendum. By simply being invovled in the remain side I am convinced he cost remain the popular vote (remain should have got ten percent just for having him and his side-kicks rambling around annoying people).

Referendums in the UK are nearly as rare as hen's teeeth and since they are advisory they carry no constituional weight - the analogy with Irish referenda is not a good one where Government are legally bound to follow the result. Given the absolute mess they have made of the negotiations there should either be a stay on Brexit by parliament (hopefully followed swiftly by ditching it altogether) or a new referedum (not a re-run of the first!) based on what we now know (accept this deal, stay, leave with no deal).
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Re: Friday's rant

Postby Oldschool » December 11th, 2018, 12:59 pm

domhnallj wrote:
Oldschool wrote:David Cameron had the necessary leadership qualities and yet he wasn't able to prevent the euroseptic rump of his party, with the aid of Corbyn and the inept EU, from getting the result they wanted in the referendum.
Comparison with the rugby leadership aren't really relevant.
The PRL is answerable only to itself and perhaps their bankers/bankrollers.
May is honour bound to implement the will of the people.
Anything else is a serious breach of democracy.
For example, following the gay etc rights referendum here. If the government had then refused to implement the legislation what then?
It's a mess and the same people who created the mess are still stirring it.
Both sides are out marching already
May will go, there will be another general election.
What then?
Leadership conundrum - you can LEAD a horse to water but you can't make it drink.


Cameron was the worst PM ever (until May) who pandered the blueKip wing of his party and then absolutely shat himself when his kippers started to defect to UKIP. He coughed up a referendum purely to hold and shore up the tory vote. Then he made the disatarous decision (for us) to lead the remain campaign in a 50:50 referendum. By simply being invovled in the remain side I am convinced he cost remain the popular vote (remain should have got ten percent just for having him and his side-kicks rambling around annoying people).

Referendums in the UK are nearly as rare as hen's teeeth and since they are advisory they carry no constituional weight - the analogy with Irish referenda is not a good one where Government are legally bound to follow the result. Given the absolute mess they have made of the negotiations there should either be a stay on Brexit by parliament (hopefully followed swiftly by ditching it altogether) or a new referedum (not a re-run of the first!) based on what we now know (accept this deal, stay, leave with no deal).

Honour bound is a moral obligation not a legal one.
I think everyone who's interested in British politics understand the difference between an Irish referendum and English referendum.
However because a referendum in the UK is such an rare thing it therefore has to be taken seriously and not just treated as advisory, otherwise why bother.
Cameron in actual fact was trying to put the euroseptics to bed for once and for all. It backfired.
Corbyn is the one who really didn't stand up to be counted (imho took a very cynical political decision) I don't think that was an accident.
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Re: Friday's rant

Postby Hornet » December 11th, 2018, 1:48 pm

Ruckedtobits wrote:Bring back John Major. The man had class, erudiction and leadership and all three are sorely needed at present.


And the ability to cheat on his wife. He was the man who oversaw the clusterfuck that was the privatisation of the GB Rail industry , the ramifications which are still being felt today, nearly 25 years later, (even Thatcher thought that Rail privatisation was a step too far). Class my arse!
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