Sorry Jong-eun, I'm not going anywhere

[suisse]

Another day, another threat through the media.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/ap ... mentpage=1

North Korea warns foreigners to leave South

We do not wish harm on foreigners in South Korea should there be a war

That statement just seems so divorced from reality. And in most articles, it makes up a couple of paragraphs and the story moves elsewhere.

I'm not sure how much interest there is in this at home - although I got a nice PM from a regular on this board (thank you for your thoughtful message ) - but I have no intention of going anywhere, certainly not for the time being. The atmosphere in Seoul - I live in the city which is only 40kms south of the DMZ - is still really calm, even if it appears to worsening by the day (media coverage). Restaurants are still packed, schools are open, no-one is rushing to pick up canned goods and there have been no extra 'war preparation' days (normally on the 15th of every month at 2pm the air raid sirens go off and we must make our way, but no one ever does).

I feel really sorry for my parents though. Another phone call today asking me had I read the news. It doesn't seem to matter how often I tell them to calm down, something new comes along.

In December 2011, Kim Jong-il died and that is the only time I have ever seen some form of tension or panic here. People are used to threats, provocations, islands shelled and ships sunk, but a change over of power brings with it so much uncertainty. That uncertainty lasted a few weeks. The sinking of the Cheonan in 2010 and shelling of Yeongpyeong Island was met with a lot of anger and calls for action (economic) and no doubt this will be the same.

Naturally, you don't want to tempt faith, but the KJE and his military generals are simply not interested in going to war. It's suicide. They're not looking to relinquish control of their country. Expect more rhtetoric - "We will turn Seoul into a sea of fire" was first used in 1994 I believe - with mild altercations around the seaboard. Baseball has started, summer is coming......sorry Kim Jong-eun, I'll hang around for a bit longer.

Here's a good piece in the Korea Times today: http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/na ... 33580.html

[fourthirtythree]

The US have ratcheted back the rhetoric and told SK to do the same. They cancelled "manouvres" due to "bad weather" the other day and, from here, it seems that this may have plateaued. I've forgotten the exact words but a senior US general said they didn't want to get talked into a war - this was a message to the SK military rather than the North.

The North will only do anything if they're backed into a corner and prodded. They have nothing to offer in a fight apart from mass death at this stage.

[Logorrhea]

Was actually thinking of you the other day, wondering what was going through your head. Glad to hear things are fairly calm over there.

Its still in the news over here, we are all aware of it, but I don't think there is a sense of real imminent disaster.

[domhnallj]

As a pizza lover I am naturally concerned about events in the Korean peninsula. To be honest, I don't think anyone is too worried yet. Perhaps their dear leader (or whatever honorific they are giving this one) needs to cement his place with a bit of shouting? I'm pretty sure those arch pragmatists the Chinese will kick ass behind closed doors.

[suisse]

The provocation is very interesting. There is no doubt that some form of peace - certainly not unification - would have been achieved years ago but for the Americans continually shifting the goalposts. One of Bill Clinton's last acts was to be to sign an agreement with Kim Jong-il. NK met the targets but Clinton never showed up. Then they get pissed and start dishing out the rhetoric. Then you had SK President Kim Dae-jung putting his entire political career on the line with his Sunshine Policy and landing in Pyeongyang. But George W. Bush puts NK on his 'axis of evil' speech, even though there was clearly no axis given NK doesn't communicate with 99% of the world's countries and they were only included because Bush couldn't be seen to include 3 Muslim/Mid. East countries. KDJ pleaded through his embassy in Washington to have Bush back down from the remarks, but Bush refused to. A SK submarine was sunk in 2002. The latest round of UN Sanctions are clearly designed to provoke. This nonsense about checking all ships bearing the NK flag. They never find anything, but they're not looking to. You could make the argument that US has never wanted peace with Pyeongyang. Kim Jong-il didn't even want any of his sons to replace him, but NK had been backed into corner and he felt there was no option.

No defending NK here. A murderous regime which kills and imprisons its own people for the most minor of offenses. Blowing up South Koreans and murdering the current President's, Park Geun-hye, mother.

But we should not be in this situation.

It'll be very interesting to see if NK does launch that missile tomorrow. Thankfully virtually all embassies are telling their citizens not to panic.

Much of this has happened before. Wait and see.

What's also annoying is I think I got tickets to see the Lions in HK in June. KJE better not f%~k it up for me!!!!!

[suisse]

As a pizza lover I am naturally concerned about events in the Korean peninsula.

Christmas Day and all.

If we have to evacuate dodge quickly, I'll save you a piece

[suisse]

Was actually thinking of you the other day, wondering what was going through your head. Glad to hear things are fairly calm over there.

Cheers Logorrhea

[IanD]

Hey Suisse

In the same boat as Logorrhea - I meant to start a thread asking for your experience/opinions.

Glad to hear you are ok and are not overly worried.

Enjoy the baseball and the pizza.

Apologies for the digression but, do they combine the 2? Can you get pizza at a baseball match?

[ribs]

Was wondering when I first heard about this if the phrase: "there is no news only spin" was applicable (Nk is the only one of the infamous "axis of evil" countries that hasn't been pressurised in the last 10 years). Very interesting reading your thoughts Suisse as there is little in the news over here of what the closest neighbours to NK think.

[suisse]

Cheers Ian.

Yeah, you can indeed. TBH, I wasn't a baseball fan at all till I came. Biggest game in the country by a country mile. Atmosphere at games is very artificial - cheerleaders, a male leading cheerleader, cheesy songs and thunder sticks - but the stadia are absolutely rocking all game. Most amazing atmosphere I've experienced. Not for the traditionalist, mind you, but I would wager anyone who disputes this would love a game in Japan or Korea.

Pizza and beer is common, but most people go fried chicken and beer. BYOB and chicken set up. Class day out. Compared to the football it is a world apart.

All about the cheerleaders though. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=10jiFkiZHMk This would never, ever fly at home.

[suisse]

Was wondering when I first heard about this if the phrase: "there is no news only spin" was applicable (Nk is the only one of the infamous "axis of evil" countries that hasn't been pressurised in the last 10 years). Very interesting reading your thoughts Suisse as there is little in the news over here of what the closest neighbours to NK think.

This interview is very interesting. And I ask anyone with the slightest interest to listen to it.

It is with Professor Andrei Lankov who lives in Seoul, and previously NK. He often appears as an 'expert' in the Guardian. This guy has his hand on the pulse more than 90% of those you read.

6 minute interview recently on Australian TV.

http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/content/2013/s3727471.htm

[Logorrhea]

Hmmm that was pretty disappointing.

Have you any interviews with those (or any) cheerleaders talking about North Korea? or anything for that matter

[artaneboy]

Hmmm that was pretty disappointing.

Have you any interviews with those (or any) cheerleaders talking about North Korea? or anything for that matter

+1. I'm sure they'd have fascinating views on that- eh... thing!

[Donny B.]

Keep Calm and Carry On....which pretty much is what you're doing in fairness...

And in any case Korea in a nuclear winter is still more appealing than Meath....

[suisse]

Keep Calm and Carry On....which pretty much is what you're doing in fairness...

And in any case Korea in a nuclear winter is still more appealing than Meath....

Navan is the county town of County Meath in Ireland. It is one of the few places in the world to have a palindromic name

Meath is such an interesting place man.

http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/nationa ... 0315F.HTML

WASHINGTON, April 9 (Yonhap) -- The U.S. government on Tuesday dismissed North Korea's public warning that foreigners in South Korea had better leave the nation amid the possibility of an armed clash on the peninsula.

"Our analysis remains the same as it was last week. We're not discouraging U.S. citizens from traveling to South Korea or encouraging them to take any special travel precautions," Patrick Ventrell, a spokesman for the State Department, said at a press briefing.

Good article from Jonathan Steele in the Guardian yesterday.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree ... orth-korea

It's a bizarre way to run international relations, one we continue to follow at our peril. For one thing, it is riddled with hypocrisy, and not just because states that have hundreds of nuclear weapons are bullying states that have few or none. The hypocrisy is worse than that. If it is offensive for North Korea to talk of launching a nuclear strike at the United States (a threat that is empty because the country has no system to deliver the few nuclear weapons that it has), how is it less offensive for the US to warn Iran that it will be bombed if it fails to stop its nuclear research?

[Peg Leg]

This has a become a strange game of smoke and mirrors played out over the media, They love this stuff whether there is traction or not.
I would be of the opinion that regarding the Clinto no show back in the day, China pressured the states into keeping schtum. Too many trade aggreements in tow and a dependent NK is much better than an allied country in civil war.

Keep safe old boy, loose lips sink ships!