Brexit

[tomthefan]

Big day for Brexit today.
May is going to lose the vote on the deal because almost no one likes it.
What comes next is going to be interesting. Either a snap election or a
3 choice referendum I guess.

[FLIP]

Interesting read - https://www.economist.com/leaders/2019/ ... havingcake

[Oldschool]

Interesting read - https://www.economist.com/leaders/2019/ ... havingcake

Corbyn is anti Europe while the Labour Party's stated policy is pro Europe.
With that type of discord Brexit will happen.

[MylesNaGapoleen]

I am in Switzerland...been here for a few years. Regardless of what vote happens tonight and bear in mind that the swiss are neutral by nature, they never speak out or are vocal about anything either way, the english are perceived to be astonishingly stupid.

[ronk]

I don’t think he’s a commie at all. The anti semitism charge is nonsense too. A lot of his policies are adapted from the continent. Have to say he’s played a blinder so far wrt brexit. He can’t effect any change so he’s letting the ERG tear the tories to pieces and demanding they deliver brexit. When they serve up the sh!t sambo it’s all on them.

I’m no lefty but it’s quite funny that people think him a bigger threat than the dopes eager to deliver another winter of discontent(while they complain that young people don’t remember the winter of discontent).

He's playing for political advantage and doesnt seem to care one bit what mess gets made along the way. So what if the Tories cop the blame for bringing about a disaster, that's not the leadership you want from an opposition.

The UK needs someone who can save it, not someone who can capitalise on its misery.

The current deal is a transition deal, practical given the 2 year window. The current problems with it are due to the uncertainty of the long term. The way out is to postpone Brexit while a more complete transition is worked out, including proper answers to the border.

i.e. postpone Bexit but continue negotiating as if it had gone ahead. Then when the backstop is no longer required it can be discarded.

[ribs]

That’s fine if the uk is interested in negotiating (it hasn’t so far). If uk parliament continues without deciding on one destination, then Brexit will be either Nodeal or Remain. If parliament back something, then Brexit will be that (taking back control I suppose)

[The Doc]

That’s fine if the uk is interested in negotiating (it hasn’t so far). If uk parliament continues without deciding on one destination, then Brexit will be either Nodeal or Remain. If parliament back something, then Brexit will be that (taking back control I suppose)

There is currently (nor has there ever been) a majority in Parliament for a "No Deal" exit from the EU. The problem they have (and for some reason only grappling with now) is that by voting for the EU Withdrawal Act, they set the default position to be exit without a transition deal. Therefore unless Parliament enacts a different piece of legislation, they UK exits at end of March. But there is no majority for any of the alternatives either - to date.

There is talk about extending A50 - which will require support from all 27 other members. The problem there is that the EU have said they will allow an extension for a specific purpose but not for reopening the Withdrawal Agreement. Though I suspect they would get an extension to June to allow time. Anything beyond that is technically difficult because there will be a new EU parliament and the question of UK representation would have to be solved.

So either (a) leave end March after voting through current TA (unlikely) or without a deal (default), (b) leave in June under same options (possible), (c) request a longer term extension on the basis of either a new election (unlikely - depends on vote today) or referendum (possible but would probably result in fracture of Conservatives and some Labour element) or (d) enact and pass legislation to revoke A50 which can be unilaterally and doesn't require consent as long as it is not an extending mechanism (unlikely)

The whole thing is a sh!t show but not because of the vote yesterday - that was inevitable. It was caused by the red lines in Lancaster House speech and the ridiculous calling of an election. It's essentially May attempting to hold her own party together

[Oldschool]

That’s fine if the uk is interested in negotiating (it hasn’t so far). If uk parliament continues without deciding on one destination, then Brexit will be either Nodeal or Remain. If parliament back something, then Brexit will be that (taking back control I suppose)

Don't underestimate control even though there is a price to be paid.
The question that has to be asked tho, are they really getting control?

[Oldschool]

I don’t think he’s a commie at all. The anti semitism charge is nonsense too. A lot of his policies are adapted from the continent. Have to say he’s played a blinder so far wrt brexit. He can’t effect any change so he’s letting the ERG tear the tories to pieces and demanding they deliver brexit. When they serve up the sh!t sambo it’s all on them.

I’m no lefty but it’s quite funny that people think him a bigger threat than the dopes eager to deliver another winter of discontent(while they complain that young people don’t remember the winter of discontent).

He's playing for political advantage and doesnt seem to care one bit what mess gets made along the way. So what if the Tories cop the blame for bringing about a disaster, that's not the leadership you want from an opposition.

The UK needs someone who can save it, not someone who can capitalise on its misery.

The current deal is a transition deal, practical given the 2 year window. The current problems with it are due to the uncertainty of the long term. The way out is to postpone Brexit while a more complete transition is worked out, including proper answers to the border.

i.e. postpone Bexit but continue negotiating as if it had gone ahead. Then when the backstop is no longer required it can be discarded.

Agree.
Corbyn is unreliable.

[The Doc]

I don’t think he’s a commie at all. The anti semitism charge is nonsense too. A lot of his policies are adapted from the continent. Have to say he’s played a blinder so far wrt brexit. He can’t effect any change so he’s letting the ERG tear the tories to pieces and demanding they deliver brexit. When they serve up the sh!t sambo it’s all on them.

I’m no lefty but it’s quite funny that people think him a bigger threat than the dopes eager to deliver another winter of discontent(while they complain that young people don’t remember the winter of discontent).

He's playing for political advantage and doesnt seem to care one bit what mess gets made along the way. So what if the Tories cop the blame for bringing about a disaster, that's not the leadership you want from an opposition.

The UK needs someone who can save it, not someone who can capitalise on its misery.

The current deal is a transition deal, practical given the 2 year window. The current problems with it are due to the uncertainty of the long term. The way out is to postpone Brexit while a more complete transition is worked out, including proper answers to the border.

i.e. postpone Bexit but continue negotiating as if it had gone ahead. Then when the backstop is no longer required it can be discarded.

Agree.
Corbyn is unreliable.

If he fails on the no confidence vote and then doesn't accept a referendum as party policy he runs the risk of the Labour party splitting in the same way as the Conservatives - over 70 Labour MP's came out this morning calling for a referendum if no confidence fails. The suspicion is that he really is only interested in getting to be PM and doesn't care what Brexit causes as long as he isn't blamed

....If parliament back something, then Brexit will be that (taking back control I suppose)

Important to note - only if Parliament passes alternative legislation will anything other than "hard Brexit" happen. Any amount of motions, censures or other types of votes mean nothing. It would need legislation passed (or repealed - same process)

[FLIP]

The issue is there is no one faction that has a majority. No Brexit, New Referendum, Mays Deal, New Deal (closer to EU), New Deal (away from EU), and Hard Brexit are all separate factions, and would probably be equivalent in voting strength. Even with May losing, the numbers won't change that much.

Given that the other parties at this point are only focused on getting the current government out, I don't see this changing much.

In my eyes the only sensible option at this point is new referendum, no general election.

[Lar]

In my eyes the only sensible option at this point is new referendum, no general election.

Since when did doing anything sensible become part of this whole process?

[MylesNaGapoleen]

its like watching someone trying to nail jelly to the ceiling.

[fourthirtythree]

What's sense got to do with it? It's a no deal crash out or a constitutional crisis right now...

DER SPIEGEL: Do you not worry that future generations could hold you responsible for what may prove to be one of the biggest mistakes in British history?

Davis: Oh, I'm certain that Brexit will be a success. Remember, every single major issue in our history is one where you might be right or wrong. Appeasement before the Second World War, we might be right or wrong. Suez, we might be right or wrong. But big changes demand that you don't run away in fear from a decision. And, of course, in Brexit lies a risk as well. But I'm not remotely concerned that we are wrong.

Brexiteers: making satire mundane and sensible.

[The Doc]

Appeasement before the Second World War, we might be right or wrong. Suez, we might be right or wrong. But big changes demand that you don't run away in fear from a decision.

f%~king hell - he's quoting the two major calls that Britain got really wrong in the 20th century and both of which lead to turmoil - either domestically or internationally. (and yes - you can probably add in a few more like partition of India etc)

[Oldschool]

Appeasement before the Second World War, we might be right or wrong. Suez, we might be right or wrong. But big changes demand that you don't run away in fear from a decision.

f%~king hell - he's quoting the two major calls that Britain got really wrong in the 20th century and both of which lead to turmoil - either domestically or internationally. (and yes - you can probably add in a few more like partition of India etc)

It still has be said hindsight is 20/20 hindsight.
Given what happened in 2008 and particularly in the lead up to it we're in no position to crow.
And despite denials there WERE plenty of warnings.
The "let them commit suicide" being perhaps the most memorable and odious denial.

[The Doc]

Appeasement before the Second World War, we might be right or wrong. Suez, we might be right or wrong. But big changes demand that you don't run away in fear from a decision.

f%~king hell - he's quoting the two major calls that Britain got really wrong in the 20th century and both of which lead to turmoil - either domestically or internationally. (and yes - you can probably add in a few more like partition of India etc)

It still has be said hindsight is 20/20 hindsight.
Given what happened in 2008 and particularly in the lead up to it we're in no position to crow.
And despite denials there WERE plenty of warnings.
The "let them commit suicide" being perhaps the most memorable and odious denial.

I'm not trying to say these two events were predictable. My issue is that in saying that "sometimes you get it right, sometimes wrong..." - he quotes two events where they got it spectacularly wrong in hindsight and in both cases there was significant debate about the best course of action - it's just a really weird couple of examples to make his point

[Lar]

Agreed Doc.

Of course Davis' final comment is capable of two interpretations:

"But I'm not remotely concerned that we are wrong."

The immediate reaction is to see this as an assurance that the decision to leave the EU is the right one. But it can just as easily be read that he has no concerns even if the decision to leave the EU turns out with hindsight to have been the wrong one. Given that as you point out he compares the decision to leave to two of the UK's biggest mistakes of the 20th century, it doesn't exactly inspire confidence.

A major difference between those decisions and Brexit is of course that Brexit was voted for popularly (even if many had no clue what Brexit might mean and probably still don't). Chamberlain and Eden acted either in their position as PM or with the backing of their Cabinets.

[Oldschool]

So dumping your citizens into the mire that is Brexit is playing a blinder, as in giving no leadership to his labour party supporters.
As for being a threat, it's likely he's going to be the next PM of the UK. One of the first things he will try to do is dump NI onto us.
If you think that's a good thing then I can see where you're coming from.

He's not dumping his citizens into the mire though. He didn't/hasn't
1)Called the referendum
2)Campaigned for Brexit
3)Pushed for the hardest possible Brexit

And as leader of the opposition he isn't really in a position to affect the final outcome. I mean there is an actual party dumping their citizens into the mire but no, the real threat is the guy who's the opposition to them. The line of argument is just bizarre.

FWIW, I kind of suspect that many of the hard brexit tories would happily dump off the North(irrespective of what they say) and some might even see this as a first step to getting rid of NI. They certainly don't care about it. I'm not enamoured by the idea of a UI, but if a large enough marjority voted yes in NI I think I would too.

He is/was dumping etc
1) He didn't have the power to call or not call a referendum so no credit for that one.
2) What he did/didn't do next is - He didn't campaign against Brexit, despite it being his party's policy to remain in Europe.
3) He has been notably ambiguous about what kind of Brexit he's in favour of.
His line on it all along is - The Tory's don't know what they are doing, leave it to me and I'll get us a much better deal.
Do you know what he'll do if there is a general election and he's the next PM, does anyone?

[LeRouxIsPHat]

Would you not all back Davis to be right given that he knows the impact papers like the back of his hand???