Corona Virus

[Oldschool]

I'm one of those people who believes.... This is something we deal with for 12 months at least. Sports will not be replayed or finished. Social distancing will continue throughout the summer and into Autumn at least. There is no more rugby until 2021. There is no football. There are going to be mass redundancies all over the world. A vaccine is 12-18 months away and how long until it is available to the mass population? Experts are saying it could take our bodies over 2 years to become immune naturally. What happens if people are reinfected in large numbers? They've recently discovered it can stay airborne for 1.1 hours before it stops being a threat.

Obviously I hope I'm very wrong. Disgustingly wrong. But I can't find anything positive or promising to look towards. Declining numbers in South Korea and effective containment in Taiwan. Good. But South Korea is one decent cluster explosion in Seoul from total disaster.

Well at least you don't have a cluster f^ck coming your way from Cheltenham, know of one confirmed case.
An estimated 20k of our august citizens were in attendance.

[paddyor]

BBC raising the point about an exit strategy.
It's a good time to talk about that very topic.
What are the criteria for an exit strategy.
1. It must be sustainable.
2. Minimize damage to the economy.
3. Minimize the number of deaths.
For it to be sustainable, herd immunity is necessary, ie 90% of the population have to have it.
To minimize the damage to the economy the 90% figure has to be reached asap.
To minimize the number of deaths there has to be a secondary peak in cases.
A secondary peak approach (we're kind of already on this path) requires that the 80% of the population that are at low risk be allowed get on with their lives while the 20% at risk cocoon themselves.
When the 80% approach herd immunity ie 80 * .9 =72% then the remaining 20% can be exposed with the really high risk cocooned until the second phase is over.
Easy no but unless we achieve herd immunity asap then more people will die than should.
The above is counterintuitive and is only possible because of the way the CV19 seems to be so age specific.

Herd immunity is estimated to be about 60-70% for a disease with this kind of R0(2-3). Miseales has an R0 of 15 and herd immunity is in the range 85-92%. It's a dumb idea and rushing to achieve it ASAP will overload the health service and the CFR will sky rocket as you're forced to ration ventilators.

[Oldschool]

BBC raising the point about an exit strategy.
It's a good time to talk about that very topic.
What are the criteria for an exit strategy.
1. It must be sustainable.
2. Minimize damage to the economy.
3. Minimize the number of deaths.
For it to be sustainable, herd immunity is necessary, ie 90% of the population have to have it.
To minimize the damage to the economy the 90% figure has to be reached asap.
To minimize the number of deaths there has to be a secondary peak in cases.
A secondary peak approach (we're kind of already on this path) requires that the 80% of the population that are at low risk be allowed get on with their lives while the 20% at risk cocoon themselves.
When the 80% approach herd immunity ie 80 * .9 =72% then the remaining 20% can be exposed with the really high risk cocooned until the second phase is over.
Easy no but unless we achieve herd immunity asap then more people will die than should.
The above is counterintuitive and is only possible because of the way the CV19 seems to be so age specific.

Herd immunity is estimated to be about 60-70% for a disease with this kind of R0(2-3). Miseales has an R0 of 15 and herd immunity is in the range 85-92%. It's a dumb idea and rushing to achieve it ASAP will overload the health service and the CFR will sky rocket as you're forced to ration ventilators.

It's an even better idea if herd immunity is 60-70% for CV19.
The whole point of using the low risk to shield the high risk is that you don't get the health system overloaded.
The figures available suggest that the health system might well be overloaded as you suggest however the overall data is skewed.
A random sample as suggested would establish the true level of cases and give more confidence as to what strategy to follow.
The government have followed the right strategy so far but if the facts change then they should be prepared to adapt and a certain amount of time has to pass before the facts become known.

[Oldschoolsocks]

BBC raising the point about an exit strategy.
It's a good time to talk about that very topic.
What are the criteria for an exit strategy.
1. It must be sustainable.
2. Minimize damage to the economy.
3. Minimize the number of deaths.
For it to be sustainable, herd immunity is necessary, ie 90% of the population have to have it.
To minimize the damage to the economy the 90% figure has to be reached asap.
To minimize the number of deaths there has to be a secondary peak in cases.
A secondary peak approach (we're kind of already on this path) requires that the 80% of the population that are at low risk be allowed get on with their lives while the 20% at risk cocoon themselves.
When the 80% approach herd immunity ie 80 * .9 =72% then the remaining 20% can be exposed with the really high risk cocooned until the second phase is over.
Easy no but unless we achieve herd immunity asap then more people will die than should.
The above is counterintuitive and is only possible because of the way the CV19 seems to be so age specific.

Herd immunity is estimated to be about 60-70% for a disease with this kind of R0(2-3). Miseales has an R0 of 15 and herd immunity is in the range 85-92%. It's a dumb idea and rushing to achieve it ASAP will overload the health service and the CFR will sky rocket as you're forced to ration ventilators.

It's an even better idea if herd immunity is 60-70% for CV19.
The whole point of using the low risk to shield the high risk is that you don't get the health system overloaded.
The figures available suggest that the health system might well be overloaded as you suggest however the overall data is skewed.
A random sample as suggested would establish the true level of cases and give more confidence as to what strategy to follow.
The government have followed the right strategy so far but if the facts change then they should be prepared to adapt and a certain amount of time has to pass before the facts become known.

So every expert I have read online has said that the Bojo strategy of allowing widespread infection in order to rush to a herd immunity is reckless.

[Oldschoolsocks]

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... s-covid-19

[Oldschool]

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... s-covid-19

Not suggesting a rush to anything aka BOJO so back up the truck trying to associate me with BOJO.
The point is that the Irish government strategy at the moment is to delay and buy time so as to be as well prepared as is reasonable.
That's the right strategy.
The biggest part of that strategy is to prepare the population for the onslaught that is to come.
Then the really tough decisions have to be made.
They may even be trying for a middle of the road solution.
A. Lockdown the at risk group.
B. Allow, in so far as it's possible, a controlled rush to herd immunity.
Ireland being an Island state has a huge advantage in that regard.
So far so good.
Herd immunity and the best strategy for achieving it, has to be the initial goal.
To repeat, the people in command have a lot more information and resources than any individual but every even half reasonable option should be explored.
Even just questioning sometimes throws up something new.

[Oldschool]

BBC raising the point about an exit strategy.
It's a good time to talk about that very topic.
What are the criteria for an exit strategy.
1. It must be sustainable.
2. Minimize damage to the economy.
3. Minimize the number of deaths.
For it to be sustainable, herd immunity is necessary, ie 90% of the population have to have it.
To minimize the damage to the economy the 90% figure has to be reached asap.
To minimize the number of deaths there has to be a secondary peak in cases.
A secondary peak approach (we're kind of already on this path) requires that the 80% of the population that are at low risk be allowed get on with their lives while the 20% at risk cocoon themselves.
When the 80% approach herd immunity ie 80 * .9 =72% then the remaining 20% can be exposed with the really high risk cocooned until the second phase is over.
Easy no but unless we achieve herd immunity asap then more people will die than should.
The above is counterintuitive and is only possible because of the way the CV19 seems to be so age specific.

Herd immunity is estimated to be about 60-70% for a disease with this kind of R0(2-3). Miseales has an R0 of 15 and herd immunity is in the range 85-92%. It's a dumb idea and rushing to achieve it ASAP will overload the health service and the CFR will sky rocket as you're forced to ration ventilators.

The answer to our prayers?
https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/0320/11244 ... -shortage/

[Oldschoolsocks]

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... s-covid-19

Not suggesting a rush to anything aka BOJO so back up the truck trying to associate me with BOJO.
The point is that the Irish government strategy at the moment is to delay and buy time so as to be as well prepared as is reasonable.
That's the right strategy.
The biggest part of that strategy is to prepare the population for the onslaught that is to come.
Then the really tough decisions have to be made.
They may even be trying for a middle of the road solution.
A. Lockdown the at risk group.
B. Allow, in so far as it's possible, a controlled rush to herd immunity.
Ireland being an Island state has a huge advantage in that regard.
So far so good.
Herd immunity and the best strategy for achieving it, has to be the initial goal.
To repeat, the people in command have a lot more information and resources than any individual but every even half reasonable option should be explored.
Even just questioning sometimes throws up something new.

I’d never compare you to Bojo, I wouldn’t compare the average ape in the zoo to that grifting buffoon.

I get you’re thinking about the exit strategy, I just think there’s too many unknowns to form one right now.

[fourthirtythree]

So every expert I have read online has said that the Bojo strategy of allowing widespread infection in order to rush to a herd immunity is reckless.

If you went to seek ethical approval for that experimental approach they would either: reject you out of hand; reject you out of hand and report you to the relevant professional body; or reject you out of hand and report you to the local anti-terrorism police.

People (okay far right grifters in Ireland like the Iona "Institute") have been suggesting that we can't praise Ireland's government for following expert advice while criticising the Tories for "following expert advice" but you can and must. Ireland followed WHO advice. The Tories found an expert who fit their ideas, they shopped around for the advice that suited them, one that was not in line with international norms. This is Brexit arrogance in application. As it turns out the minute that expert report faced peer review it was torn to shreds - they were using a model of a different disease with different characteristics and the "expert" opinion was worthless.

The better "bold, thinking outside the box" strategy would have been to adopt guidelines from Asian countries that had learned from controlling SARS and H1N1 and have more effective protocols than the more conservative WHO guidelines. I hope we have learned that now.

But when you are a cossetted, privileged racist the thought that other people might genuinely know more than you, particularly foreign ones, is unthinkable.

[FLIP]

So every expert I have read online has said that the Bojo strategy of allowing widespread infection in order to rush to a herd immunity is reckless.

If you went to seek ethical approval for that experimental approach they would either: reject you out of hand; reject you out of hand and report you to the relevant professional body; or reject you out of hand and report you to the local anti-terrorism police.

People (okay far right grifters in Ireland like the Iona "Institute") have been suggesting that we can't praise Ireland's government for following expert advice while criticising the Tories for "following expert advice" but you can and must. Ireland followed WHO advice. The Tories found an expert who fit their ideas, they shopped around for the advice that suited them, one that was not in line with international norms. This is Brexit arrogance in application. As it turns out the minute that expert report faced peer review it was torn to shreds - they were using a model of a different disease with different characteristics and the "expert" opinion was worthless.

The better "bold, thinking outside the box" strategy would have been to adopt guidelines from Asian countries that had learned from controlling SARS and H1N1 and have more effective protocols than the more conservative WHO guidelines. I hope we have learned that now.

But when you are a cossetted, privileged racist the thought that other people might genuinely know more than you, particularly foreign ones, is unthinkable.

So just to be clear, you think that Professor Chris Whitty, Chief Medical Officer and practicing consultant physician is breaking the hypocratic oath and is a far right plant?

And you also think the WHO who downplayed this outbreak while it was localized in China because it didn't want to offend China, is infallible and not at all politicised?

I know you like to see anything to the right of Stalin as fascist but this is loony even by your standards. And libellous.

[Oldschool]

Don't have CV so far and being very careful to avoid getting it. Always reckoned my tendancy towards paranoia would protect me.
Having said all that it's always good to be prepared.
Strategy is -
1. Keep a supply of food to hand.
2. Top up weekly online.
3. Petrol tank full + petrol for mower etc.
4. Stock up on vitamins.
5. Stock up on cleaning products.
6. Oh yeah Don't forget the toilet roll.
Plans for infection.
1. Double up on the zinc supplements.
2. Ivy and Thyme helps clear phlegm.
3. Use Mouthwash with Hydrogen Peroxide or gargle with Rosemary Tea.
4. Use paracetamol and/or lemsip.
5. Exercise gently for circulation.
6. Monitor temperature and blood pressure.
7. Pray.
Obviously the above is in addition to any medical advice I may get.
Any additional suggestions are welcome.

[Oldschool]

On WHO.
This is not a one size fits all scenario.
The US has 50 states.
What is applicable in Arizona may not be suitable for NY or Alaska.
Population density and Climate being at least two consideration.
On WHO think it correct to say that they have updated their advice over time.
CV19 is a moving target because it's new, nobody should be surprised when new information comes to light.
It's important to be flexible and recognise that changing ones approach may be required.
The main thing is not to dig a hole.
Our own government, so far, have managed this.

[Oldschool]

Belgium cases double ever two days now.
They are trying to isolate the old and infirm.
They are talking of doing a kind of ABS on it.
Control the rate and if it eases, then ease up on restrictions.
They have a great health system TBF but they are going to test it.
The population, unlike the French, are compliant.
France is going to a basket case.
Our guys could do worse than keep a close eye on the Belgians

[Oldschoolsocks]

So every expert I have read online has said that the Bojo strategy of allowing widespread infection in order to rush to a herd immunity is reckless.

If you went to seek ethical approval for that experimental approach they would either: reject you out of hand; reject you out of hand and report you to the relevant professional body; or reject you out of hand and report you to the local anti-terrorism police.

People (okay far right grifters in Ireland like the Iona "Institute") have been suggesting that we can't praise Ireland's government for following expert advice while criticising the Tories for "following expert advice" but you can and must. Ireland followed WHO advice. The Tories found an expert who fit their ideas, they shopped around for the advice that suited them, one that was not in line with international norms. This is Brexit arrogance in application. As it turns out the minute that expert report faced peer review it was torn to shreds - they were using a model of a different disease with different characteristics and the "expert" opinion was worthless.

The better "bold, thinking outside the box" strategy would have been to adopt guidelines from Asian countries that had learned from controlling SARS and H1N1 and have more effective protocols than the more conservative WHO guidelines. I hope we have learned that now.

But when you are a cossetted, privileged racist the thought that other people might genuinely know more than you, particularly foreign ones, is unthinkable.

So just to be clear, you think that Professor Chris Whitty, Chief Medical Officer and practicing consultant physician is breaking the hypocratic oath and is a far right plant?

And you also think the WHO who downplayed this outbreak while it was localized in China because it didn't want to offend China, is infallible and not at all politicised?

I know you like to see anything to the right of Stalin as fascist but this is loony even by your standards. And libellous.

Wowzers, that’s one way of putting words in someone else’s mouth!!

Also calling the Iona institute far right grifters is pretty mild tbf...

[Oldschoolsocks]

Don't have CV so far and being very careful to avoid getting it. Always reckoned my tendancy towards paranoia would protect me.
Having said all that it's always good to be prepared.
Strategy is -
1. Keep a supply of food to hand.
2. Top up weekly online.
3. Petrol tank full + petrol for mower etc.
4. Stock up on vitamins.
5. Stock up on cleaning products.
6. Oh yeah Don't forget the toilet roll.
Plans for infection.
1. Double up on the zinc supplements.
2. Ivy and Thyme helps clear phlegm.
3. Use Mouthwash with Hydrogen Peroxide or gargle with Rosemary Tea.
4. Use paracetamol and/or lemsip.
5. Exercise gently for circulation.
6. Monitor temperature and blood pressure.
7. Pray.
Obviously the above is in addition to any medical advice I may get.
Any additional suggestions are welcome.

Decent enough strategy, you could add watching the classics to your list.

http://forum.leinsterfans.com/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=25688

[FLIP]

If you went to seek ethical approval for that experimental approach they would either: reject you out of hand; reject you out of hand and report you to the relevant professional body; or reject you out of hand and report you to the local anti-terrorism police.

People (okay far right grifters in Ireland like the Iona "Institute") have been suggesting that we can't praise Ireland's government for following expert advice while criticising the Tories for "following expert advice" but you can and must. Ireland followed WHO advice. The Tories found an expert who fit their ideas, they shopped around for the advice that suited them, one that was not in line with international norms. This is Brexit arrogance in application. As it turns out the minute that expert report faced peer review it was torn to shreds - they were using a model of a different disease with different characteristics and the "expert" opinion was worthless.

The better "bold, thinking outside the box" strategy would have been to adopt guidelines from Asian countries that had learned from controlling SARS and H1N1 and have more effective protocols than the more conservative WHO guidelines. I hope we have learned that now.

But when you are a cossetted, privileged racist the thought that other people might genuinely know more than you, particularly foreign ones, is unthinkable.

So just to be clear, you think that Professor Chris Whitty, Chief Medical Officer and practicing consultant physician is breaking the hypocratic oath and is a far right plant?

And you also think the WHO who downplayed this outbreak while it was localized in China because it didn't want to offend China, is infallible and not at all politicised?

I know you like to see anything to the right of Stalin as fascist but this is loony even by your standards. And libellous.

Wowzers, that’s one way of putting words in someone else’s mouth!!

Also calling the Iona institute far right grifters is pretty mild tbf...

He is the expert in question, so hardly putting words in someone's mouth.

[Ruckedtobits]

Don't have CV so far and being very careful to avoid getting it. Always reckoned my tendancy towards paranoia would protect me.
Having said all that it's always good to be prepared.
Strategy is -
1. Keep a supply of food to hand.
2. Top up weekly online.
3. Petrol tank full + petrol for mower etc.
4. Stock up on vitamins.
5. Stock up on cleaning products.
6. Oh yeah Don't forget the toilet roll.
Plans for infection.
1. Double up on the zinc supplements.
2. Ivy and Thyme helps clear phlegm.
3. Use Mouthwash with Hydrogen Peroxide or gargle with Rosemary Tea.
4. Use paracetamol and/or lemsip.
5. Exercise gently for circulation.
6. Monitor temperature and blood pressure.
7. Pray.
Obviously the above is in addition to any medical advice I may get.
Any additional suggestions are welcome.

Don't exercise too gently, IT physican scientist William Reville recommended at least 75 mins per week of reasonable intensive workout - divided up obviously. You need to get your heart rate up and your lungs working fairly hard. This will stimulate and improve your immune system and also enhance the production of new neurons upstairs. Personally, my thing has become early morning cycling. 35 - 45 mins decent intensity cycling on cycle lanes with luminous jacket & little traffic.

Stretches & really hot shower immediately takes me to an hour & 10 mins. Follow that by large bowl of mixed oats porridge with berries & bananas and I'm set for the day. Have largely dropped the daily zinc & fish oil supplements but give them a decent hit once a fortnight without any impact on digestive function.

I'll be fascinated to see whether the general health of the population improves with the heightened awareness of hand and cough & sneezing hygiene and greater regularity of exercise and sleeping. Certainly the anecdotal evidence from A & E Departments of the seven Public Hospitals in Dublin is that attendances are way down. Chemists also remarking on a significant reduction in new Prescriptions. Overall mortality rate for February & March rumoured to be below average but official figures ( February) not available yet.

[blockhead]

Nearly 800 dead in Italy in the last 24 hours and that's nearly 2000 in the last 3 days. It's really escalating now, and most of those deaths are in the Lombardy region. Is this the near future that awaits us?

Tales of heroism are coming out of Italy everyday and this one has to be close to our hearts. Zebre player Maxime Mbanda has become a volunteer ambulance driver in Parma.

[Ruckedtobits]

How many Tests have we done?
Who did we test? Was it largely drawn from contacts of confirmed cases?
Who are we testing at the moment? Is it largely referrals from GPs?
What % of referrals are testing positive?
Are our positive tests lower than anticipated?
Are they planning to test a good-sized random sample to get an overview?

To me these are all reasonable questions that the Goverment should give us answers to. The Irish population is fairly savvy. We're generally not thick and prejudiced. Give us reasonable information and we'll accept it and plan accordingly. At the present I get the overall impression that neither Holohan nor Reid are giving us completely factual information. We are been fed carefully crafted spin because the HSE either haven't planned properly:
A) to get enough testing kits; or
B) to get enough protective kits; or
C) who to test and in what priority; or
D) who to inform that they are at greatest risk (other than front-line staff)

Nothing pisses me off more than an elite, whether politicans or technocrats, who believe that their rentention of factual information is better held in their hands than communicated publicly to the population.

Give us the relevant facts.

[Oldschoolsocks]

How many Tests have we done?
Who did we test? Was it largely drawn from contacts of confirmed cases?
Who are we testing at the moment? Is it largely referrals from GPs?
What % of referrals are testing positive?
Are our positive tests lower than anticipated?
Are they planning to test a good-sized random sample to get an overview?

To me these are all reasonable questions that the Goverment should give us answers to. The Irish population is fairly savvy. We're generally not thick and prejudiced. Give us reasonable information and we'll accept it and plan accordingly. At the present I get the overall impression that neither Holohan nor Reid are giving us completely factual information. We are been fed carefully crafted spin because the HSE either haven't planned properly:
A) to get enough testing kits; or
B) to get enough protective kits; or
C) who to test and in what priority; or
D) who to inform that they are at greatest risk (other than front-line staff)

Nothing pisses me off more than an elite, whether politicans or technocrats, who believe that their rentention of factual information is better held in their hands than communicated publicly to the population.

Give us the relevant facts.

My mrs waiting for over 10 days now, she’s called and been told multiple conflicting stories about whether or not she’s on a list and which list she should be on.

It stinks of something that’s being managed in Excel with no version control on the document and on top of that it feel like there’s a bean counter somewhere re-prioritising and or removing people from the list because there’s a lack of testing kits, lack of PPE and maybe a lack of training in how to actually administer the test.