saturday 16th febuary selections - horse racing

[beaker1]

1:30 Ascot – Neptune Investment Management Novices’ Hurdle

At Huntingdon SAUSALITO SUNRISE made his racecourse debut and I must admit he really stood out in the parade ring, I will go as far to say he is one of the best horses that I have ever seen on looks. He ran a fair race that day, finishing second in a bumper and he is certainly on my list of horses to follow. On his next start he was subject of a gamble at Ludlow (backed from 6/1 to 10/3) and looked to have the race easily won when jumping the last clear of the pack, only to be caught on the line. He finished well clear of the pack however and the Hobbs team was not in great form at the time, so now with the stable in better form and with that experience behind him, I expect him to run very well. The slight drop in trip should also help and although he faces a couple of decent horses, I can see him improving past them and winning.

2:05 Ascot – Sodexo Prestige Reynoldstown Novices’ Chase

ROCKY CREEK is proving to be a very good recruit to chasing and is strongly fancied to win. He showed plenty of promise on his debut, when it was only the fact that he needed the run that cost him victory against Harry Topper, who looks a top class horse in the making. He then made the decent Molotof look ordinary at Doncaster and that form has been franked by an easy win for Molotof at Warwick last week. His final start was at Warwick and he jumped and travelled well throughout, eventually pulling clear of a decent field to win by 15 lengths. Tour Des Champs fell that day when still going well and is clearly a danger on six pounds better terms, but I have total confidence in this horse and I don’t think we have seen his full potential yet. The ground and track should be ideal for him and I expect him to win.

2:35 Gowran Park – Shantou at Burgage Stud Maiden Hurdle

DJAKADAM was very unlucky last time out as he was well clear when stumbling at the final hurdle at Thurles. He had looked very promising up to that point, jumping and travelling well and is confidently selected to gain compensation here. That run was on heavy ground and his only start in France was also on heavy, so the ground should be fine and with the Mullins team in such good form, it will take a good one to beat him. The winner at Thurles has run well in a handicap subsequently and with Djakadam still holding an entry in the Triumph Hurdle, I am sure connections are fully expecting victory.



2:55 haydock park - Betfred Grand National Trial (Grade 3)

As Silver By Nature is the only winner of this race in the last decade to have finished outside the first three on his most recent start, it seems best to side with runners arriving here in form. This spells trouble for the likes of Giles Cross, Lackamon, Lively Barrow and the afore mentioned Silver By Nature who all arrive here having finished outside the placings last time. It therefore seems imperative to side with a horse heading the right way rather than one looking to bounce back to form.

This level at which previous performances have come is also vitally important with eight of the last ten winners having recorded a victory in Class 2 company or higher prior to contesting this Grade 3 event. Lackamon, Viking Blond, Well Refreshed, Trigger The Light and Mac Aeda all fail to make the cut in this years field and will be looking to emulate both Giles Cross and Silver By Nature who both bucked this trend when winning their respective renewals.

In terms of official ratings, the benchmark for this contest looks to be set at 135 with eight of the ten most recent winners having achieved this mark or higher before coming here. This is perhaps surprising given the extra weight these horses had to carry in conditions which are often on the testing side. This narrows the field to five with Monbeg Dude, Giles Cross, Cannington Brook, Teaforthree and top-weight Silver By Nature all making the grade in this year’s renewal.

Having briefly alluded to the stamina-sapping conditions that participants often encounter, it is essential that potential winners of the race have the necessary stamina. This is supported by the fact that nine of the last ten winners had all recorded previous victories over three miles or further. However with this year’s entire field fitting the bill, we will need to use other factors in order to find the likely winner.

It could be said that the attribute which is taken for granted most often in National Hunt racing is the ability of a horse to jump the obstacles in front of it, which is especially important over longer distances where horses can get very tired and lose concentration. This can be quantified by noting that of the last ten winners; eight of them had fallen or unseated no more than twice during their careers. This is bad news for supporters of Silver By Nature, Rigadin De Beauchene and Triggerman who all have three failures to their names on their respective race records.

With no single age-group appearing to dominate this race you would be forgiven for thinking that there isn’t much of a trend in this department. However, with seven of the last ten winners younger than ten it may still be worthy of some consideration. In fact, a horse aged less than ten has won twenty of the last thirty renewals of this race since 1980 and although Giles Cross, Rambling Minster and Forest Gunner have all defied the trend it still looks to be worth following those towards the younger end of the age spectrum. Trigger The Light, Silver By Nature, Giles Cross, Triggerman and Neptune Equester can all be considered the elder statesman of this race and will hope that there is life in the old legs yet.

The final factor worthy of mention is that eight of the last ten winners had run within the last sixty days prior to winning here. Lackamon and Trigger The Light have both had 84 days since they ran on the same card at Haydock in November whereas Silver By Nature will be attempting to return from a mammoth 679 day absence having not been seen in public since finishing well behind Ballabriggs in the Grand National nearly two years ago. This trend would suggest that race fitness is very important when looking for selections and given the strength of this trend, we should probably be looking elsewhere for selections.

Shortlist

MONBEG DUDE

Teaforthree

Cannington Brook

Conclusion

Cannington Brook represents the Colin Tizzard yard and comes here on the back of a decent runner-up effort behind Carruthers at Ffos Las and prior to that his victory over Merry King by the narrowest margins marked him as a horse heading the right way. He likes running at Haydock having recorded three of his four victories here and looks well placed to put in another solid effort this time.

Teaforthree marked himself as a stayer of some ability when winning the 4m Amateur Riders’ Chase at last year’s Cheltenham festival and following a disappointing run on his reappearance, a sixth placed finish in the Hennessy and a gutsy second in the Welsh National has done nothing but support that opinion. He appears to relish the challenge of jumping fences and was staying on at the end of 3m6f last time, so the trip should pose no problems. He comes here with a big chance and looks set for another bold showing on Saturday.

The marginal preference is for the only horse that finished ahead of Teaforthree in the Welsh National, MONBEG DUDE. In fact this wasn’t the only time he had finished ahead of Rebecca Curtis’ nine-year-old having won the Henrietta Knight Chase atCheltenham in November. His jumping has been known to cause him problems but it is worth noting that he has only unseated or fallen once in six attempts over fences. His rival Teaforthree has to give him 3lb less than he did at Chepstow but I don’t really see this making too much of a difference and I fancy Michael Scudamore’s eight-year-old to continue on his progressive upward curve.


3:10 Gowran Park – Red Mills Trial Hurdle

ZAIDPOUR has an excellent record going right handed at distances shy of three miles and also has a record of 112 at Gowran Park. Heavy ground suits him just fine and although he concedes weight all round, is confidently expected to win again with his stable in such good form. He was a very easy winner of this race last year and ran Hurricane Fly to 2 ½ lengths at Punchestown on heavy ground, so it will take a below par run for him to be beaten. That is unlikely however as on his last ten starts, he has run to a rating of at least 152 and if you combine all the runs over hurdles by his rivals, on only two occasions has one achieved a rating of 152 or more. He looks banker material.

3:50 Ascot – Betfair Ascot Chase

The ground is likely to be very testing for this and I can see some horses finishing very tired. Finian’s Rainbow is clearly a classy horse, but he is not suited by heavy ground and there must also be some stamina doubts, so he is not for me in this. Captain Chris won well on heavy ground at Ascot earlier in the season and after his fine second in the King George, I can see why he is favourite, but he had a very hard race that day and I am not convinced that he will repeat the level of that form. Cue Card made a mistake early on in the King George and as a result ran too free and did not get home. He had looked very good prior to that however and I can see him running a big race over this trip. The one I really like though is SOMERSBY. He has a great record on right-handed tracks, handles soft ground well and looks as though this trip should suit. He is a classy horse and ran well behind Master Minded here in 2011 and I was impressed by him last time out behind Sprinter Sacre. He ran well for a long way that day and should improve for the run. I expect him to be spot on for this and on a track that suits him, I fancy him to win.

[Broken Wing]

Nice one beaker.

Definitley getting on some of these tomorrow.

[johng]

I'd be afraid to. one of them might win. that would be terrible. I'd be off to ballygamblingaddiction.

[Donny B.]

Shall I do a six-way accumulator?

[Donny B.]

Found odds on everything except Djakadam in the 2.35 at Gowran park.

EDIT: Odds on favourite.

Cheers Beaker

Have a few things written out now to put on tomorrow in the bookies, will let you know how I get on.

[Donny B.]

Oh by the way Beaker, if this whole thing is just a cunning ruse to destroy the chances of the forementioned horses by tricking a "cooler" like me into betting on them.........

....then I salute a smart strategy!!

[Donny B.]

SAUSALITO SUNRISE comes in third.

Well there goes my six-way accumulator

[Donny B.]

Rocky Creek comes home, although Ruby gave me a little fright at the end. That's the first part of my three-way accumulator.

[Donny B.]

DJAKADAM came in too.