Scotland v. Ireland

[Twist]

No match thread yet?

I'm rarely confident before big games and this one is no different. I don't see Cotter's looming exit as a factor.

I think of far more relevance will be the mindset of the Glasgow contingent. They lost two big games to Connacht at the end of last season, and have lost three times to Munster this year. It was clear that they were getting sick of losing to Irish opposition from the way they targeted Murray's standing leg. It serves no purpose other than to injure.

They finished off last year's game (which was fairly tight) throwing punches, and I don't think the bitterness has subsided. Rugby is first and foremost a mental game, and they'll be absolutely desperate not to lose to us at home.


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[simonokeeffe]

Im going the opposite, very confident we'll win by ten or twelve points

12 or 13 of our starting 15 would walk into theirs. Most of our subs would walk into their XV. Theyre good at losing big games, we're good at winning them

Their only chance involves taking out our halfbacks

[Golf Man]

Certainly not a gimme - seen some bookies have us as 1/3 - don't think it will be like that tbh - Scotland are definitely on the up and will be really looking to lay down a marker. That said I do think we are better, particularly in the pack. There is still a slight concern, that we won't be cutting enough in attack. That said I think this Scotland team can be broken down and Schmidt certainly is the main to do this

What I'm hoping for (and what I expect)

McGrath
Best
Furlong
Ryan
Toner
Stander
SOB
Heaslip
Murray
Sexton
Earls
Henshaw
Ringrose
Trimble
Zebo (Kearney)

Scannell (Tracey)/Healy/Bealham/Henderson/POM/Marmion/Jackson/O Halloran (Zebo)

[OTT]

Certainly not a gimme - seen some bookies have us as 1/3 - don't think it will be like that tbh - Scotland are definitely on the up and will be really looking to lay down a marker. That said I do think we are better, particularly in the pack. There is still a slight concern, that we won't be cutting enough in attack. That said I think this Scotland team can be broken down and Schmidt certainly is the main to do this

What I'm hoping for (and what I expect)

McGrath
Best
Furlong
Ryan
Toner
Stander
SOB
Heaslip
Murray
Sexton
Earls
Henshaw
Ringrose
Trimble
Zebo (Kearney)

Scannell (Tracey)/Healy/Bealham/Henderson/POM/Marmion/Jackson/O Halloran (Zebo)

I would have exactly the same starting 15.

On the bench I would have the same except Ryan instead of Bealham I think he has been outstanding for Munster and deserves it and VDF instead of POM purely to do with better cover of positions but no big deal either way both of them could easily start and not weaken the team so whoever is left out it will be tough on.

Also I think Zebo is nailed on to start on the left wing if he is not selected at 15. His game this season has made him the form Irish back three player can't see any scenario where he is a replacement.

[Laighin Break]

Yeah I would have Zebo on the wing over Earls. Probably Kearney at fullback, although I would like to see TOH being given a shot (don't see it happening though).
I can't see us losing to Scotland - they have bewaten us twice in Murrayfield since the tournament became the Six Nations - fairly dismal record that I only see getting worse. If people are seriously tipping the Ireland England game to be a tournament decider, Scotland shouldn't be causing trouble.

[LeRouxIsPHat]

I've been saying this for about 5 years so for the sake of tradition...this could be Scotland's year!

We should be too good for them and have designs on a Grand Slam, but that doesn't mean it'll be easy. As arrogant as this sounds, we beat NZ this season so should win all our games. That's the kind of level we operate at now.

The Scots do worry me out wide but I think we'll kick less than we've done in previous years (like the game two years ago) and expect us to dominate the scrum and be safe on our own throw. As much as Richie Gray gets criticised, I think himself and his brother are both in good form and they'll go for us there. Scotland are also well capable of disrupting us at the breakdown but for the most part that's been a really really strong area for Ireland, Leinster, and Munster all season.

Poite can often let props get away with murder too so hope we're in his ear this week.

My one worry is how clinical we are. The NZ game at the Aviva showed that we can still have games where just keep hitting it up in the opposition 22 and ignore the space out wide. Scotland showed they're pretty good at defending that in November and if we don't take early chances then it'll be a dog fight that we could easily come out the wrong side of.

[Golf Man]

Certainly not a gimme - seen some bookies have us as 1/3 - don't think it will be like that tbh - Scotland are definitely on the up and will be really looking to lay down a marker. That said I do think we are better, particularly in the pack. There is still a slight concern, that we won't be cutting enough in attack. That said I think this Scotland team can be broken down and Schmidt certainly is the main to do this

What I'm hoping for (and what I expect)

McGrath
Best
Furlong
Ryan
Toner
Stander
SOB
Heaslip
Murray
Sexton
Earls
Henshaw
Ringrose
Trimble
Zebo (Kearney)

Scannell (Tracey)/Healy/Bealham/Henderson/POM/Marmion/Jackson/O Halloran (Zebo)

I would have exactly the same starting 15.

On the bench I would have the same except Ryan instead of Bealham I think he has been outstanding for Munster and deserves it and VDF instead of POM purely to do with better cover of positions but no big deal either way both of them could easily start and not weaken the team so whoever is left out it will be tough on.

Also I think Zebo is nailed on to start on the left wing if he is not selected at 15. His game this season has made him the form Irish back three player can't see any scenario where he is a replacement.

There is absolutely an argument for VDF on the bench especially as its likely that SOB will have to come off. That said POM is a Schmidt favorite and has been one of the best players of his reign. Being honest I'm happy enough with any 4 of the top 5 backrows (and there are plenty behind them as well). I think Bealham is probably better positioned and deserves to keep his place - that said I could see Ryan getting closer and closer to him as the tournament progresses.

I hope you are right on Zebo - on form it is no contest (I'd argue that O Halloran is the closest to him on form). I do think he gives a huge advantage attacking wise relative to Kearney - he is plenty experienced enough now and is imo a better defender than Kearney at this point also. Kearney is only better than him in the air. That said I think Schmidt will select Kearney, Trimble and Earls - when all three are fit that's his go to option - its not the form selection but we'll see

[LeRouxIsPHat]

Don't think I'd start SOB myself. Know it won't happen but he hasn't played in weeks and there's a lovely balance with CJ, VDF, and Heaslip. I'd have him on the bench then because he can play on either flank and then CJ could cover 8 (I hope we see CJ at 8 a fair bit this tournament). POM and Conan would both be really unlucky to miss out if that was the case.

[Fireworks]

Certainly not a gimme - seen some bookies have us as 1/3 - don't think it will be like that tbh - Scotland are definitely on the up and will be really looking to lay down a marker. That said I do think we are better, particularly in the pack. There is still a slight concern, that we won't be cutting enough in attack. That said I think this Scotland team can be broken down and Schmidt certainly is the main to do this

What I'm hoping for (and what I expect)

McGrath
Best
Furlong
Ryan
Toner
Stander
SOB
Heaslip
Murray
Sexton
Earls
Henshaw
Ringrose
Trimble
Zebo (Kearney)

Scannell (Tracey)/Healy/Bealham/Henderson/POM/Marmion/Jackson/O Halloran (Zebo)

I would see the back three being Zebo, Trimble and Kearney with a toss up between Earls and O'Hallaran for a seat on the bench. The backrow will be far more contentious and the selection will most likely be based on how they go in training and their injury profile at the time. I can see VDF being in the 23 with one of Stander, SOB or POM losing out. Conan is not far from that group as well which is great for Ireland. I think you need 6 top level backrows to make it through a 6n or WC due to the attrition of the position.

[Golf Man]

Certainly not a gimme - seen some bookies have us as 1/3 - don't think it will be like that tbh - Scotland are definitely on the up and will be really looking to lay down a marker. That said I do think we are better, particularly in the pack. There is still a slight concern, that we won't be cutting enough in attack. That said I think this Scotland team can be broken down and Schmidt certainly is the main to do this

What I'm hoping for (and what I expect)

McGrath
Best
Furlong
Ryan
Toner
Stander
SOB
Heaslip
Murray
Sexton
Earls
Henshaw
Ringrose
Trimble
Zebo (Kearney)

Scannell (Tracey)/Healy/Bealham/Henderson/POM/Marmion/Jackson/O Halloran (Zebo)

I would see the back three being Zebo, Trimble and Kearney with a toss up between Earls and O'Hallaran for a seat on the bench. The backrow will be far more contentious and the selection will most likely be based on how they go in training and their injury profile at the time. I can see VDF being in the 23 with one of Stander, SOB or POM losing out. Conan is not far from that group as well which is great for Ireland. I think you need 6 top level backrows to make it through a 6n or WC due to the attrition of the position.

Backrow - I don't think the section is contentious per se - there are really good arguements for all 5 (I don't think that Conan is realistically in contention at this point). Heaslip is guaranteed to start. O Brien if fit generally starts, Stander arguably our best player for the last year, and covers 8, VdF had an excellent AI and has been really good for Leinster, POM has huge credit in the bank, coming back to really good form and offers a lineout presence that none of the others do. Whoever misses out will be very unlucky but its not really contentious


On the back 3 - fairly decent chance your selection is where it will end up- that said I think its a more contentious decision (the form players are probably Zebo and O Halloran from who is selected (and left) - every chance that neither will get in the first 15) I can't see Earls not being in the 23 btw - the other 4 don't offer cover at centre and leave us very vulnerable if there is an injury there

[Laighin Break]

I think Earls is probably a good bench option considering he covers wing, centre and fullback (albeit at a push imho).
I hate seeing Earls in the centre, but if there was an injury I'm not sure who else I'd like to see come on that isn't a specialist centre.

[offshorerules]

I think that although the news on O'Brien and Sexton was reasonably positive in the papers today, I wouldn't be at all surprised if they were both rested for this one.

[Golf Man]

I think Earls is probably a good bench option considering he covers wing, centre and fullback (albeit at a push imho).
I hate seeing Earls in the centre, but if there was an injury I'm not sure who else I'd like to see come on that isn't a specialist centre.

Full back is really pushing it - hasn't played there in years - I think two of Kearney, Zebo and TOH will be in the 23 (almost certainly the first 2) so that will cover fb. His other option is to pick Luke Marshall/Rory Scannel on the bench - that does mean that Ringrose would be covering wing which I don't think he'll do. Schmidt trusts Earls to cover centre and I think he will do so again

Of course lost in all of this is Tommy Bowe - its unlikley but I wouldn't fully rule him out either

[Golf Man]

I think that although the news on O'Brien and Sexton was reasonably positive in the papers today, I wouldn't be at all surprised if they were both rested for this one.

SOB - possibly - I think our backrow is substantially stronger than theirs and we can mix and match without affecting teh overall quality too much

Sexton - don't see it - if he is fit then he starts - if he needs to be rested/managed then surely resting v Italy makes more sense

[simonokeeffe]

really cant see Henderson not starting, hes a big part of the gameplan

Hopefully likes of Stander and Murray will help with being clinical

[Dave Cahill]

really cant see Henderson not starting, hes a big part of the gameplan

Hopefully likes of Stander and Murray will help with being clinical

Ryan and Toner are set in stone. I don't know how you can say Henderson is a 'big part of the gameplan', its more accurate to say that he will be battling Ultan Dillane (and depending on the split, perhaps POM) for a spot on the bench.

[Oldschool]

Certainly not a gimme - seen some bookies have us as 1/3 - don't think it will be like that tbh - Scotland are definitely on the up and will be really looking to lay down a marker. That said I do think we are better, particularly in the pack. There is still a slight concern, that we won't be cutting enough in attack. That said I think this Scotland team can be broken down and Schmidt certainly is the main to do this

What I'm hoping for (and what I expect)

McGrath
Best
Furlong
Ryan
Toner
Stander
SOB
Heaslip
Murray
Sexton
Earls
Henshaw
Ringrose
Trimble
Zebo (Kearney)

Scannell (Tracey)/Healy/Bealham/Henderson/POM/Marmion/Jackson/O Halloran (Zebo)

I would see the back three being Zebo, Trimble and Kearney with a toss up between Earls and O'Hallaran for a seat on the bench. The backrow will be far more contentious and the selection will most likely be based on how they go in training and their injury profile at the time. I can see VDF being in the 23 with one of Stander, SOB or POM losing out. Conan is not far from that group as well which is great for Ireland. I think you need 6 top level backrows to make it through a 6n or WC due to the attrition of the position.

Backrow - I don't think the section is contentious per se - there are really good arguements for all 5 (I don't think that Conan is realistically in contention at this point). Heaslip is guaranteed to start. O Brien if fit generally starts, Stander arguably our best player for the last year, and covers 8, VdF had an excellent AI and has been really good for Leinster, POM has huge credit in the bank, coming back to really good form and offers a lineout presence that none of the others do. Whoever misses out will be very unlucky but its not really contentious


On the back 3 - fairly decent chance your selection is where it will end up- that said I think its a more contentious decision (the form players are probably Zebo and O Halloran from who is selected (and left) - every chance that neither will get in the first 15) I can't see Earls not being in the 23 btw - the other 4 don't offer cover at centre and leave us very vulnerable if there is an injury there

Our best back row is Heaslip, VDF and Stander. POM would get my vote for the bench.
Back Three - Kearney, Trimble and Zebo.
Earls on the bench but I think Joe will have a good look at the two Rory's for the bench spot with ROL in pole position purely because he covers wing and centre.
A good start is very important but this is the season that the new guard will be given priority whenever possible.
The Scots can be nasty (EG - Finlay Calder - Ask Italy's coach about it).
We already saw a bit of it from Glasgow v Munster. Sexton and Murray will be targeted, which is fair enough but it will be borderline.
Scotland have probably already got into Murray's head a bit - making a couple of breaks early on is the way to get into their heads.
Sexton just needs to protect himself by tackling properly.
The only thing I don't want to see happening for this 6Ns are any dodgy calls on fitness, it invariably bites us in the ass.
Time to trust the backup Joe.
If Rory Scannell is on the bench then Joe will have made a bad call and that's not about Scannell BTW.
Anyway the best way to win this one is for our forwards to dominate theirs and that's definitely doable.

[Golf Man]

Rol isn't in the squad

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[simonokeeffe]

really cant see Henderson not starting, hes a big part of the gameplan

Hopefully likes of Stander and Murray will help with being clinical

Ryan and Toner are set in stone. I don't know how you can say Henderson is a 'big part of the gameplan', its more accurate to say that he will be battling Ultan Dillane (and depending on the split, perhaps POM) for a spot on the bench.

workhorse lock (Toner) + ball carrying lock starting + ball carrying lock on bench for impact
Ryan has been in sensational form but doesnt compliment Toner as well or provide the same bench option/impact

JVDF will be on bench as he provides 7 cover and SOB (preplanned sub) covers 6 and Stander covers 8

[Dave Cahill]

He complimented him plenty well in the tests against New Zealand.