The Quickening 2019

[johng]

The 9th Season of the countdown to the end of the ProN

I wasn't going to bother as we are so far ahead. But there ARE other teams in the universe that could join us in the playoffs.

This season I have decided on the participants based on current standings.

To keep things manageable I have omitted Cardiff and Cheetahs in conf A. They may come back into the reckoning I can add them later if needed

4 teams from Conf A and 4 Teams from Conf B (Plus us) who are in with a shout of top 3

The 4 Conf A teams are within 7 points of eachother

The 4 Conf B teams are all within 2 points of each other.

Soooo.

Conf A head to heads.

Friday 25th January....Glasgow....Ospreys....19:35
Friday 22nd February....Glasgow..v..Connacht....19:35
Friday 22nd February....Ospreys..v..Munster....19:35
Saturday 2nd March....Connacht ..v..Ospreys....14:45
Saturday 27th April....Munster..v..Connacht....19:35

Conf B head to heads

Friday 25th January....Leinster..v..Scarlets....19:35
Friday 25th January....Ulster..v..Benetton....19:35
Saturday 16th February....Benetton..v..Scarlets....17:15
Saturday 2nd March....Benetton..v..Edinburgh....15:00
Friday 22rd March....Edinburgh..v..Leinster....19:35
Saturday 6th April....Scarlets..v..Edinburgh....18:45
Saturday 6th April....Leinster..v..Benetton....19:45
Friday 12th April....Edinburgh..v..Ulster....19:35
Saturday 27th April....Ulster..v..Leinster....17:15

Conf A v B

Friday 15th February....Ospreys..v..Ulster....19:35
Friday 22rd March....Connacht..v..Benetton....19:35
Friday 5th April....Glasgow..v..Ulster....19:35
Saturday 27th April....Glasgow..v..Edinburgh....19:35

Conf B v A

Saturday 2nd March..Scarlets..v..Munster....17:00
Friday 12th April....Benetton..v..Munster....18:00
Saturday 13th April....Leinster..v..Glasgow....15:00

More to follow

[curates_egg]

Great stuff. Thanks.
Cockerill is doing some job to have Edinburgh competitive on both fronts.
Did anyone think the Safa teams would get even worse?

[D4surfer]

Great stuff. Thanks.
Cockerill is doing some job to have Edinburgh competitive on both fronts.
Did anyone think the Safa teams would get even worse?

I think the Cheetahs could have a strong end to the season and be in the mix for the knock out stages. The Kings are just rubbish.

[Peg Leg]

Did anyone think the Safa teams would get even worse?

When finalised squads were being announced before the start of the season, yeah, how could you not? A lot of talent (lots a squad padding too) gone from their squads.
Cheetas lost or cut: 24
King: 22
No security for those players after being f%~ked around, dropped out of super rugby and foisted into the P12 at the 11th hour as a bit of a gamble. I'd say every "away" dressing room they visited was left in a jocker, CV's everywhere.

[Oldschool]

If any of the teams currently in a HEC qualifying spot get another 20 points they should maintain that position.
Ulster therefore have to do a bit more to make it.
Is it possible that they could select a slightly weakened team for the HEC QF in order to achieve qualification for next season.
In conference A, Ospreys look to be the team most at risk of losing out although Connacht will be under pressure because of 6Ns call ups. Friend's rotation gambles may well be about to pay off.
As always Johng excellent stuff.

[johng]

PaddyOR's Excellent info from the 2018 thread.

Conferece A
Round 14 & 15

Game h/a (G) Points(P) Total(P) Max Available(M)

Team Pts    G      P   T    M      G      P   T    M      
Mun 44    Dra A    5   49   84   Kin H    5   54   84
Gla 42    Osp H    5   47   82   Car A    4   51   81
Osp 37    Gla A    0   37   72   Uls H    1   38   68
Con 37    Car A    4   41   76   Che H    5   46   76
Car 32    Con H    1   33   67   Gla H    1   34   63

Round 16 & 17

Team Pts    G      P   T    M      G      P   T    M 
Mun 54    Osp A    4   58   83   Sca A    1   59   79
Gla 51    Con H    4   55   80   Zeb A    5   60   80
Con 46    Gla A    1   47   72   Osp H    5   52   72
Osp 38    Mun H    1   39   64   Con A    0   39   59
Car 34    Edi A    1   35   60   Kin H    5   40   60

Round 18 & 19

Team Pts    G      P   T    M      G      P   T    M 
Gla 60    Che H    5   65   80   Uls H    4   69   79
Mun 59    Zeb H    5   64   79   Car H    5   69   79
Con 52    Tre H    5   57   72   Zeb A    5   62   72
Car 40    Sca H    1   41   56   Mun A    0   41   51
Osp 39    Dra H    5   44   59   Che A    5   49   59

Round 20 & 21

Team Pts    G      P   T    M      G      P   T
Mun 69    Tre A    5   74   79   Con H    4   78
Gla 69    Lei A    0   69   74   Edi H    1   70
Con 62    Car H    4   66   71   Mun A    1   67   
Osp 49    Kin A    5   54   59   Car A    4   58   
Car 41    Con A    1   42   56   Osp H    1   43   

Team W  D L TB LB PTS
Mun  16 0 5 12 2  78
Gla  14 0 7 11 3  70
Con  13 0 8 8 7  67
Osp  12 0 9 6 4  58
Car  7 0 14 5 10  43

Munster will lose some players to during the 6N but should keep most of their pack and have able back ups at 9 and 10 provided no one gets injured. Their squad is much stronger than any of the conference rivals and they've an easier run than Glasgow who are probably their only real rivals for the home SF.

Glasgow have been a bit of mixed bag. Threw away points vs Treviso chasing a BP and also against Munster. Will lose way more of their squad to Scotland and the main concern for the 6N is the halves. Possibly giving them more credit than they're due as they were terrible this time last year. The conf games during the 6N vs Ospreys, Cardiff and Connacht will determine their season. They could well be coming to the RDS looking for a result or needing one in the 1872 game.

5 from 6 LBPs show just how competitive Connacht have been even in defeat. 3rd choice OH was usually allowed go back to their province during the 6Ns so they should have Carty at least. Should also get back a lot of the players in the Ireland squad and the way the fictures line up there's scope to rotate. There's a definite 13-15 pts for them from the Italians and Cheetahs but what's really important is they beat the 2 Welsh rivals. Massive game on Saturday, win that and they've a 9-10 point lead over Cardiff.

Ospreys have probably the most difficult 6N of any of the sides. Shorn of it's Wales players it's just a good team. The good news is it eases up after the 6N and they should bank 3 if not 4 wins. Anything less than 2 wins during the 6 nations will see them out of the running. The game against Connacht looks make or break.

The season could have been so different for Cardiff had they not had such a terrible start. 4 points from what should have 13 see's them 5th and 5pts back instead of 3rd with a gap back to the other 2. They've had 2 thumping wins vs Munster and Scarlets but that's it really. The rest of their points have come from easier opponents as their schedule for the run in indicates. I've maybe been a bit harsh in writing them off. They won't lose as many players to Wales but I think the ones they are losing or have lost to injury are really key for them. If they want to break 60pts they need to win 6 games and get a few BPs along the way and I just can't see it with that Schedule.

[johng]

PaddyOR Conf B predictions

Round 14 & 15

Game h/a (G) Points(P) Total(P) Max Available(M)

Team Pts    G      P   T    M      G      P   T    M      
Lei 54    Sca H    4   58   93   Zeb A    5   63   93
Edi 35    Kin H    5   40   75   Dra A    5   45   75
Tre 35    Uls H    0   35   70   Sca H    1   36   66
Sca 34    Lei H    0   34   70   Tre A    4   40   70
Uls 33    Tre H    5   38   73   Osp A    4   42   72

Round 16 & 17

Team Pts    G      P   T    M      G      P   T    M 
Lei 63    Kin H    5   68   93   Che H    5   73   93
Edi 45    Car H    4   49   74   Tre A    4   53   73
Uls 42    Zeb H    5   47   72   Dra A    5   52   72
Sca 40    Che H    5   45   70   Mun H    4   49   69
Tre 36    Dra H    5   41   66   Edi H    1   42   62

Round 18 & 19

Team Pts     G      P   T    M      G      P   T    M          
Lei 73    Edi A    1   74   89   Tre H    5   79   89
Edi 53    Lei H    4   57   72   Sca A    1   58   68      
Uls 52    Kin H    5   54   69   Gla A    1   55   65   
Sca 49    Car A    4   53   68   Edi H    4   57   67    
Tre 42    Con A    0   42   57   Lei A    1   43   53    

Round 20 & 21

Team Pts    G      P   T    M      G      P   T
Lei 79    Gla H    4   83   88   Uls A    1   84
Sca 57    Zeb H    5   59   64   Dra A    4   66
Edi 58    Uls H    4   62   67   Gla A    4   66
Uls 55    Edi A    1   56   61   Lei H    4   60
Tre 53    Mun H    1   44   49   Zeb A    4   48

21 points from a possible 40 will win the league. Also if we come out of the next 4 games with a 20 pont lead over Edinburgh it's done. It'll go to games won then points diff which is currently +247 and you'd expect that to grow with the Kings and cheetahs at home coming up.

Scarlets have probably the easiest run in with the game vs Edinburgh being the only really difficult game I see. That's shaping up to be the home qf decider. I think Scarlets will shade them on points difference because they'll have the same no. of wins Cardiff caused them problems but they should have a full compliment back and theirs a few back from injury as well IIRC.

Edinburgh have an easy 6N but a difficult run in but that will suit them as they're squad is weaker when it can be and stronger when it really needs it. I think Cockerill will throw his strongest team on the field for the Leinster game in advance of the HCC QF vs Munster. We could be going there looking to win the league. If the past 6 weeks are anything to go by he'll flog his front liners right to the end of the season.

If Ulster want to get into the reckoning they have win a minimum 7 of their remaining 8 games with a haul of BPs. They should be set up nicely coming into the last 3 games with only the Os away being a really difficult game. They've traditionally struggled to put away Treviso but usually get the result. They'll be praying Coatzees hamstring problem is minor.

Kind of written off Treviso which might seem unfair but I don't see them winning 6 of their last 8 games. They're destiny is still in their own hands as they get a shot at each of the conference rivals but the odd upset aside I can't see them getting the better of all 4.

[D4surfer]

Poor weekend for our conference competitors. Edinburgh just lost to the Kings in SA.

Ulster and Benneton with 2 points each and 1 point each for Scarlets and Edinburgh.

[paddyor]

State of play
3 from 6

No TBPs and everyone picked up points.

Round 14 & 15

Conference A
Game h/a (G) Points(P) Total(P) Max Available(M)

Team Pts    G      P   T    M      G      P   T    M      
Mun 44    Dra A    4   48   84   Kin H    5   53   83
Gla 42    Osp H    4   46   81   Car A    4   50   80
Osp 37    Gla A    1   38   73   Uls H    1   39   69
Con 37    Car A    1   38   73   Che H    5   43   73
Car 32    Con H    4   36   71   Gla H    1   37   67

Conference B

Team Pts    G      P   T    M      G      P   T    M      
Lei 54    Sca H    4   58   93   Zeb A    5   63   93
Tre 35    Uls H    2   37   72   Sca H    1   38   68
Edi 35    Kin H    1   36   71   Dra A    5   41   71
Sca 34    Lei H    1   35   70   Tre A    4   39   69
Uls 33    Tre H    2   35   70   Osp A    4   39   69

[johng]

Don't feel bad. A draw is rare in Rugby. Puts Treviso in 2nd place 21 points behind us. You have to think that is unassailable with cheetahs and kings at home to follow Zebre away.

Munster scraped past dragons and Connacht went down by the same margin in Cardiff.

Still 2 points covering 2nd to 5th in our conference. Munster and Glasgow pull away slightly and Cardiff catch up a little on Connacht and Ospreys

[blockhead]

Conf A:
Glasgow and Munster neck and neck for a home semi. Already played each other twice.
If we assume Cheetahs BP at home v Kings in their game in hand then there will be 2 points between Ospreys,Connacht, Cardiff and Cheetahs for that last playoff spot. And, the Euro 3 will be fighting for 1 place in next seasons Heino. One willl succeed and one will face a playoff to qualify.
Conf B:
Leinster are home and dry for a home semi barring a series of very unlikely events.
However, the fight for 2nd and 3rd is white hot. Benetton, Ulster, Scarlets and Edinburgh are seperated by 2 points.That's last years semi-finalists and the teams ranked 4th and 6th in Europe. Throw in an uppity Italian side and its all to play for. One of these teams is going to be really dissappointed at the end of this season.

Predictions:
1. Leinster home semi v Glasgow or Munster
2. Media will cite Leinster's huge conf lead as evidence that the Pro14 is Chyte, ignoring that last season conf B's top 3 were seperated by 2 points and Leinster finished ahead of Scarlets on points diff.
3. Connacht to finish 3rd in conf A but lose an away QF.
4. Peg Leg to say something really funny.
5. Tom the Fan to blame the ref.
6. DC to get his kit off on Bluestalk.
7. SOKs and DonnyB to make a much needed return.
8. Stringer gets eliminated in the DWTS semi, media blames media bias as the only possible explanation.
9. Virgin media stop playing ROG 2018 6Nations thoughts.
10. Ireland win Brexit.
11. Rory dosen't win a major.

[riocard911]

Conf A:
Glasgow and Munster neck and neck for a home semi. Already played each other twice.
If we assume Cheetahs BP at home v Kings in their game in hand then there will be 2 points between Ospreys,Connacht, Cardiff and Cheetahs for that last playoff spot. And, the Euro 3 will be fighting for 1 place in next seasons Heino. One willl succeed and one will face a playoff to qualify.
Conf B:
Leinster are home and dry for a home semi barring a series of very unlikely events.
However, the fight for 2nd and 3rd is white hot. Benetton, Ulster, Scarlets and Edinburgh are seperated by 2 points.That's last years semi-finalists and the teams ranked 4th and 6th in Europe. Throw in an uppity Italian side and its all to play for. One of these teams is going to be really dissappointed at the end of this season.

Predictions:
1. Leinster home semi v Glasgow or Munster
2. Media will cite Leinster's huge conf lead as evidence that the Pro14 is Chyte, ignoring that last season conf B's top 3 were seperated by 2 points and Leinster finished ahead of Scarlets on points diff.
3. Connacht to finish 3rd in conf A but lose an away QF.
4. Peg Leg to say something really funny.
5. Tom the Fan to blame the ref.
6. DC to get his kit off on Bluestalk.
7. SOKs and DonnyB to make a much needed return.
8. Stringer gets eliminated in the DWTS semi, media blames media bias as the only possible explanation.
9. Virgin media stop playing ROG 2018 6Nations thoughts.
10. Ireland win Brexit.
11. Rory dosen't win a major.

Number 6 won't make a blind bit of difference, if that week's episode only goes out on Soundcloud!!!!!!

[paddyor]

Treviso upset the apple tart in Conf B again. Should stay at least 3rd next weekend with a home win vs Dragons. Round 17 clash vs Edinburgh should be a 2nd vs 3rd match up. Lack of BPs is killing Ulster and they'll need 3 from their next 3 games to catch the other 2. 8 points for us from the remaining games and we can break out the forks. Scarlets margin for error is dramatically reduced, Backs against the wall for the rest of the season.

Glasgow got 5 at Cardiff but coughed up the TBP and LBP at the death to Cardiff to keep the heat on Connact who also failed to get the TBP despite having the territory and possesion to do so. Both of the latter on away assignments in Scotland next weekend against what should be weaker teams but who knows.

Round 14 & 15

Conference A
Game h/a (G) Points(P) Total(P) Max Available(M)

Team Pts    G      P   T    M      G      P   T    M      
Mun 44    Dra A    4   48   84   Kin H    5   53   83
Gla 42    Osp H    4   46   81   Car A    5   51   81
Con 37    Car A    1   38   73   Che H    4   42   72
Osp 37    Gla A    1   38   73   Uls H    0   38   68
Car 32    Con H    4   36   71   Gla H    2   38   68

Conference B

Team Pts    G      P   T    M      G      P   T    M      
Lei 54    Sca H    4   58   93   Zeb A    5   63   93
Edi 35    Kin H    1   36   71   Dra A    5   41   71
Tre 35    Uls H    2   37   72   Sca H    4   41   71
Uls 33    Tre H    2   35   70   Osp A    4   39   69
Sca 34    Lei H    1   35   70   Tre A    1   36   66

I'll stick with the rest of my predictions which should give

Final
Conf A

Team Pts
Mun 77
Gla 70
Con 62   
Osp 58   
Car 48   

Conf B

Team Pts
Lei 84
Edi 62
Sca 62
Uls 57
Tre 53

[johng]

Connacht and Treviso ease into playoff places. Leinster Munster and Glasgow maintain dominance

Conf A head to heads.

Friday 22nd February....Glasgow..v..Connacht....19:35
Friday 22nd February....Ospreys..v..Munster....19:35
Saturday 2nd March....Connacht ..v..Ospreys....14:45
Saturday 27th April....Munster..v..Connacht....19:35

Conf B head to heads

Saturday 2nd March....Benetton..v..Edinburgh....15:00
Friday 22rd March....Edinburgh..v..Leinster....19:35
Saturday 6th April....Scarlets..v..Edinburgh....18:45
Saturday 6th April....Leinster..v..Benetton....19:45
Friday 12th April....Edinburgh..v..Ulster....19:35
Saturday 27th April....Ulster..v..Leinster....17:15

Conf A v B

Friday 22rd March....Connacht..v..Benetton....19:35
Friday 5th April....Glasgow..v..Ulster....19:35
Saturday 27th April....Glasgow..v..Edinburgh....19:35

Conf B v A

Saturday 2nd March..Scarlets..v..Munster....17:00
Friday 12th April....Benetton..v..Munster....18:00
Saturday 13th April....Leinster..v..Glasgow....15:00

[Oldschool]

Have to say this quickening is going to be very interesting.
Ulster beating Ospreys away was slightly surprising.
As pointed out above by Por a lack of BPs could crucial.
Still think they're doing better than expected so who knows.

[D4surfer]

Based on my view of the remaining fixtures this is how I see it finishing:

Leinster 84
Treviso 59
Ulster 58
Scarlets 57
Edinburgh 56

I can see Treviso getting 5 points from each of their games against Dragons and Zebre. I don't think they'll get anything in Galway or Dublin but I think they can beat both Edinburgh and Munster at home. It really is squeaky bum time for those chasing second spot. As mentioned by others, bonus points will be vital as will clashes between conference rivals.

[johng]

Embra suffer shock home loss to Cardiff meaning Leinster only need 3 points from their last 5 games to become uncatchable.

Treviso hockey Dragons to consolidate 2nd place. Big home game next week against Embra.

Over in the other conference. The win nudges Cardiff into 3rd place meaning Wales have s team in European placing.

Conf A head to heads.

Saturday 2nd March....Connacht ..v..Ospreys....14:45
Saturday 27th April....Munster..v..Connacht....19:35

Conf B head to heads

Saturday 2nd March....Benetton..v..Edinburgh....15:00
Friday 22rd March....Edinburgh..v..Leinster....19:35
Saturday 6th April....Scarlets..v..Edinburgh....18:45
Saturday 6th April....Leinster..v..Benetton....19:45
Friday 12th April....Edinburgh..v..Ulster....19:35
Saturday 27th April....Ulster..v..Leinster....17:15

Conf A v B

Friday 22rd March....Connacht..v..Benetton....19:35
Friday 5th April....Glasgow..v..Ulster....19:35
Saturday 27th April....Glasgow..v..Edinburgh....19:35

Conf B v A

Saturday 2nd March..Scarlets..v..Munster....17:00
Friday 12th April....Benetton..v..Munster....18:00
Saturday 13th April....Leinster..v..Glasgow....15:00

[D4surfer]

Edinburgh certainly look to be in trouble trying to reach the knock-outs. They may also miss out on Heineken Cup qualification.

[paddyor]

PD aside, we needed 8pts from the last 6 going into the weekend. The 5 from the kings meant 3 was all we needed irrespective of the Embra result. We won’t be dropping +200 in points difference if we pick up 3 points. Think there’s little chance of any team in the top 3 finishing flawless either.

Mind you, I’d Cardiff with no wins at this point.

[Jonny tight lips]

Leinster provided Ulster with 26 of their 28 points today, if we beat them on the last day is there a chance they could not qualify for the champions cup next year? If that was the case it might make Mr. McGrath think again