Scotland vs Ireland, Sat 9th Feb 14.15

[Atlas]

This becomes a huge game for us now.

Lose it and we have lost back to back games, are out of the championship, have serious questions to answer and will surly be way down on confidence as well.

CJ is out and Dev (rolled ankle) and Earls(Hip pointer) might also be out as well. Neither of Murray and Sexton look fully fit/ match sharp either.

England treated the game like a world cup final and brought massive intensity levels, Scotland will probably do the same. I don't think Scotlands pack are big enough to physical bully us the way England did so the need for bulk in the pack isn't huge but i'd still start SOB at 7 and Conan at 8. With CJ probably missing the rest of the tournament, it's a massive opportunity for Conan to really nail down a starting position.

If Joe is forced into 3 changes due to injuries I'd imagine he will be unlikely to make too many other changes although you'd image the Henshaw at 15 experiment is over.

Scotland are a team on the up and won't be lacking in confidence. Combine that with them being at home and I really don't know who will win this.

[neiliog93]

1.Healy 2.Best 3.Furlong

4.Roux 5.Ja.Ryan

6.POM 8.SOB 7.VDF

9.Murray 10.Sexton 12.Henshaw 13.Ringrose 14.Conway

11.Stockdale 15.Larmour/Addison

16.S.Cronin 17.Kilcoyne 18.Porter 19.Dillane 20.Conan 21.Cooney 22.Carbery 23.Addison/Larmour


I think Joe will pick Jordi Murphy ahead of Conan on the bench. Rob Kearney is the solution to Henshaw's positional wobbles at FB but we should have learned from the England game that playing guys when they're half-fit is usually a bad idea. Bring Kearney back for the Italy match after he gets some game time for Leinster. Unsure of who to start - an almost inevitable miserable day in Murrayfield seems more Addison than Larmour, albeit the latter is more dangerous going forward.

[Oldschool]

Plan for the worst and hope for the best.
Joe now has the opportunity to shift emphasis to the RWC.
Worst case situation would be if Kearney Sexton Murray were unavailable. Against England, Kearney didn't make it and neither Murray or Sexton showed up.
Joe needs to pick the team for Scotland with that in mind, especially because Scotland are in our RWC group.
Larmour needs to play as often as possible at FB for both Ireland and Leinster, at least 20mins in every game.
He should start at 15 next week even if RK is fit.
Carberry and Cooney should start too.
Cronin should get at least 30 mins of the bench.
Earls may have been found out but it would be an overreaction to replace him.
As an aside Joe will be criticized for picking Henshaw ahead of Larmour but there could be another reason.
Joe needs cover for RB and backup for that cover.
Addison has been suggested for this role however Addison is the likely cover for Ringrose, it would be very unwise for Joe to put all his eggs in one basket.

[RoboProp]

Henshaw can't start at FB with the Scottish back 3.

[suisse]

Winning this game, imho, starts and ends with nullifying Finn Russell. Almost every team that's gone to Edinburgh in the last 3 years has been beaten. Even NZ came pretty close to losing there after a brilliant Stuart Hogg break.

Scotland have very good players and try scorers. Almost everything good for them came from Russell. He mixes his game up really well, with some excellent passes, deft chips and good breaks. He was given an armchair ride and he punished the Italians. But as we've seen numerous other times, if Scotland are not controlling a game or Russell has been ruffed up a bit, he completely loses composure. He was dreadful in Ravenhill last month. Starve them of the ball and have SOB attack his shoulders early on and we'll beat them

[Ruckedtobits]

This game always had significance for a number of reasons:
1. They are our Pool opponents in Japan in September;
2. They beat us in Edinburgh two years ago and 13 of our players felt that;
3. Their 6N record in Murrayfield rivals ours in Aviva.

After Saturday, the game assumes even greater significance as the opportunity for the Irish Squad to show the character for which they have been reknowned in victory, hasn't disappeared in 90 minutes.

Ireland must clinically take Scotland's weapons from them. Them we must use ours to score points -preferably in the first half.

Scotland have a decent Squad and a good Coach. Their main Clubs and players have been in good form but they are short a couple of key forwards. They are neither invincible nor physically dominating. They have pace throughout the team, except at scrum-half. They have a very astute out-half who has become a more mature player in Paris but still prepared to be unorthodox.

We must reload and re-calibrate. This is not a replay of Saturday. This is a rehearsal for September.

[Zyvis]

The cover for Ringrose is Chris Farrell, no?
He was magnificent V Wales last year and that won't or shouldn't be forgotten too fast.
Addison is cover for lots of other people all at the same time though, he can cover four positions - not many players can do that although as we know utility backs tend to be bridesmaid, bench bunny material sadly.

[wixfjord]

I'd agree with the above, this is the biggest test of Schmidt and our side for a good while. Pressure is on now. If Murray and Sexton are both 10-15% better I think we'll win, and I think we've enough to out muscle their pack, but I'm worried about our backplay and lineout without Toner.

[LeRouxIsPHat]

Ha I see it very differently. I don't think Scotland have the capacity to play like England and with the Championship already highly unlikely I don't see there being much pressure on it. We could beat them 30 nil and I wouldn't be assured that we've rectified anything from the weekend.

Blowing a big physical France away is what I've got my eye on in that regard, and then a really tough trip to Wales where they will likely be in the hunt for a championship. If we don't improve for France or if Wales seem to have figured us out too then I think it'll be time to worry about us.

[LeRouxIsPHat]

CJ out for 4 weeks or so.

Dev, Ringrose, and Earls being assessed as the week goes on, personally I think they'll all miss out.

Conway sent back to Munster because of a calf issue. He really seems to be allergic to Irish camp, it's a pity because I think he could be great for us if he'd just managed to stay fit at key times over the last couple of years.

[MylesNaGapoleen]

Ha I see it very differently. I don't think Scotland have the capacity to play like England and with the Championship already highly unlikely I don't see there being much pressure on it. We could beat them 30 nil and I wouldn't be assured that we've rectified anything from the weekend.

Blowing a big physical France away is what I've got my eye on in that regard, and then a really tough trip to Wales where they will likely be in the hunt for a championship. If we don't improve for France or if Wales seem to have figured us out too then I think it'll be time to worry about us.

agree. france and wales will be the big tests. Scotland are good but I am with you...they dont have the polynesian trio to put in our faces. in the same breath...Finn Russell, when he is on form (he has had a few off games for Racing), can see openings and seems to have the freedom to go for them with scotland. It will be a tough game for us but the bigger tests are to come, like you say.

[suisse]

I don't see France as that big a test. Scotland ripped us apart in the first 25 mins two years ago. That's the game Finn Russell will try to play again. France have awesome backs and a few stand out lads in the pack but they're a poorly coached/disciplined team. The intercept the #4 threw - 8 mins left, 2 points up - would never happen in a Joe Schmidt or Warren Gatland team.

We should not be losing on Saturday but I can see it more than v France

[LeRouxIsPHat]

You've missed the point though, it's not about winning or losing, it's about learning the lessons from the English game and we won't be able to prove that against Scotland. We could put in a repeat performance this weekend and win because Scotland aren't as physical as the English, and that won't tell us if we've learned from last weekend or not.

[Oldschool]

You've missed the point though, it's not about winning or losing, it's about learning the lessons from the English game and we won't be able to prove that against Scotland. We could put in a repeat performance this weekend and win because Scotland aren't as physical as the English, and that won't tell us if we've learned from last weekend or not.

Losing against Scotland, given they are in our RWC pool, would have psychological implications.
Joe has some tough decisions to make.
Only he knows the true state of play regarding each player's fitness, good luck with that.

[ronk]

How we react to a setback is important.

Scotland are a good side and they will see an opportunity.

[thecomedian]

The form of Murray and Sexton is a worry. Murray has being iffy since he’s come back and usually when Sexton has a bad day he always bounces back but as he gets older he will decline at some stage. I’m not saying it’s now but he’s 34 in the summer so we’re going to see lesser performances.

Our forwards should be fine, so as long as we pick a regular fullback I’ll be happy.

[flustered]

Murray Kinsella saying Ringrose and Toner out, Earls should be ok

[wixfjord]

Toner & Ringrose out, Earls looking dodgy too.

I’d go for
Healy, Best, Furlong, Roux, Ryan, POM, VDF, SOB, Murray, Sexton, Stockdale, Aki, Henshaw, Earls, RK

Wouldn’t be surprised to see Schmidt stay with Henshaw at 15 and go for Addison/Farrell albeit.

[Jonny tight lips]

So that’s Ringrose out for a few months if Henshaw is anything to go by. Can somebody look into why the Leinster lads are always having issues with hamstrings

[Jonny tight lips]

Just to clarify I mean somebody on the Leinster medical staff not any of you folks