Ireland 2020 and beyond

[LeRouxIsPHat]

I can't say I'm too excited about Andy Farrell taking over, his defensive system has been found out this year and we didn't seem to be able to adapt. In general the team looks stale and I think we need big changes, but personally I want to forget about building to the next World Cup to any great extent. I think you can prepare for the long term future in a pretty natural way over the four years and take the opportunity to rotate players or try players in different positions when the opportunity presents itself rather than because you need to stick to a plan for France in 2023 e.g. playing Murray and Sexton for so long in Cardiff in order to get them ready for a World Cup 7 months later didn't need to happen and should never happen again, or if you think Joey can make a difference at fullback then play him there instead of being welded to the idea of him being the backup ten for the World Cup.

I think there's quite a few players who are looking old right now and a lot of them should be in danger for the 6N. Best is obviously gone and we need a new hooker and captain. I'd start Scannell at hooker and have Ryan as the new skipper. I'd like to see someone like Kelleher get the last hooker spot even if he's not playing for Leinster and there's no intention of playing him in the 6N.

Healy isn't going to last forever and Kilcoyne has a real chance of overtaking him soon. I would move Porter back to loosehead during the summer and try and develop him as Healy's long term replacement. He's done really well at tighthead but I think our need is greater there and having himself and Furlong in the same team could be a game changer.

Second row is a big issue, I think we're a year or two away from having depth there.

We need more power and subtlety in the back row. Deegan and Doris are obvious candidates but they're both a fair bit off being top class international players. I think our need is great enough that we slot the likes of them in quite early though, even if it's a bench spot here or there.

There's far more scope to change in the backs. We'll have James Lowe in 12 months time. Larmour was probably good enough in Japan that he could be our fullback, but I like the idea of Stockdale moving there when Lowe arrives.

I think Johnny should bench from now on. Not sure how many seasons he has left but he's just not quick enough or durable enough to be our starting ten IMO. Ten is becoming an issue for me, I don't see anyone being anywhere near as good as Johnny now, but maybe we were too reliant on him anyway? It might be a good thing to use the rest of the side more.

[Twist]

Carbery is ahead of where Jonny was at the same age. He can definitely step up over the next couple of years. But I do think we rely too much on Jonny to be our playmaker. That responsibility needs to be spread out a little, which is one of the reasons I like Cooney.

The drawback to having Joey at 10 is that we dont have the option of him at 15. So if we want two recognised first recievers, even as a Plan B, on the pitch then what do we do? Ross (for now) Byrne at 10 & Joey to 15? Persist with Carty? Scannell to 12?


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[CiaranIrl]

I can't say I'm too excited about Andy Farrell taking over, his defensive system has been found out this year and we didn't seem to be able to adapt. In general the team looks stale and I think we need big changes, but personally I want to forget about building to the next World Cup to any great extent. I think you can prepare for the long term future in a pretty natural way over the four years and take the opportunity to rotate players or try players in different positions when the opportunity presents itself rather than because you need to stick to a plan for France in 2023 e.g. playing Murray and Sexton for so long in Cardiff in order to get them ready for a World Cup 7 months later didn't need to happen and should never happen again, or if you think Joey can make a difference at fullback then play him there instead of being welded to the idea of him being the backup ten for the World Cup.

I think there's quite a few players who are looking old right now and a lot of them should be in danger for the 6N. Best is obviously gone and we need a new hooker and captain. I'd start Scannell at hooker and have Ryan as the new skipper. I'd like to see someone like Kelleher get the last hooker spot even if he's not playing for Leinster and there's no intention of playing him in the 6N.

Healy isn't going to last forever and Kilcoyne has a real chance of overtaking him soon. I would move Porter back to loosehead during the summer and try and develop him as Healy's long term replacement. He's done really well at tighthead but I think our need is greater there and having himself and Furlong in the same team could be a game changer.

Second row is a big issue, I think we're a year or two away from having depth there.

We need more power and subtlety in the back row. Deegan and Doris are obvious candidates but they're both a fair bit off being top class international players. I think our need is great enough that we slot the likes of them in quite early though, even if it's a bench spot here or there.

There's far more scope to change in the backs. We'll have James Lowe in 12 months time. Larmour was probably good enough in Japan that he could be our fullback, but I like the idea of Stockdale moving there when Lowe arrives.

I think Johnny should bench from now on. Not sure how many seasons he has left but he's just not quick enough or durable enough to be our starting ten IMO. Ten is becoming an issue for me, I don't see anyone being anywhere near as good as Johnny now, but maybe we were too reliant on him anyway? It might be a good thing to use the rest of the side more.

Great post, and nailed it on the head about not focusing on the world cup. Interesting quote from Joe on the same subject today: "Because right after the November series when we played the All Blacks last year we decided to make sure that this was our target.

“Maybe it consumed us a little bit and we got distracted from our game-to-game focus.”

More important than who we select though is how we decide to play. Our style needs to adapt hugely. I'd be much more optimistic if it was Lancaster rather than Farrell who was taking over. I really hope he gets a top notch backs/attack coach in.

[dropkick]

I can't say I'm too excited about Andy Farrell taking over, his defensive system has been found out this year and we didn't seem to be able to adapt. In general the team looks stale and I think we need big changes, but personally I want to forget about building to the next World Cup to any great extent. I think you can prepare for the long term future in a pretty natural way over the four years and take the opportunity to rotate players or try players in different positions when the opportunity presents itself rather than because you need to stick to a plan for France in 2023 e.g. playing Murray and Sexton for so long in Cardiff in order to get them ready for a World Cup 7 months later didn't need to happen and should never happen again, or if you think Joey can make a difference at fullback then play him there instead of being welded to the idea of him being the backup ten for the World Cup.

I think there's quite a few players who are looking old right now and a lot of them should be in danger for the 6N. Best is obviously gone and we need a new hooker and captain. I'd start Scannell at hooker and have Ryan as the new skipper. I'd like to see someone like Kelleher get the last hooker spot even if he's not playing for Leinster and there's no intention of playing him in the 6N.

Healy isn't going to last forever and Kilcoyne has a real chance of overtaking him soon. I would move Porter back to loosehead during the summer and try and develop him as Healy's long term replacement. He's done really well at tighthead but I think our need is greater there and having himself and Furlong in the same team could be a game changer.

Second row is a big issue, I think we're a year or two away from having depth there.

We need more power and subtlety in the back row. Deegan and Doris are obvious candidates but they're both a fair bit off being top class international players. I think our need is great enough that we slot the likes of them in quite early though, even if it's a bench spot here or there.

There's far more scope to change in the backs. We'll have James Lowe in 12 months time. Larmour was probably good enough in Japan that he could be our fullback, but I like the idea of Stockdale moving there when Lowe arrives.

I think Johnny should bench from now on. Not sure how many seasons he has left but he's just not quick enough or durable enough to be our starting ten IMO. Ten is becoming an issue for me, I don't see anyone being anywhere near as good as Johnny now, but maybe we were too reliant on him anyway? It might be a good thing to use the rest of the side more.

Great post, and nailed it on the head about not focusing on the world cup. Interesting quote from Joe on the same subject today: "Because right after the November series when we played the All Blacks last year we decided to make sure that this was our target.

“Maybe it consumed us a little bit and we got distracted from our game-to-game focus.”

More important than who we select though is how we decide to play. Our style needs to adapt hugely. I'd be much more optimistic if it was Lancaster rather than Farrell who was taking over. I really hope he gets a top notch backs/attack coach in.

Mike Catt has already signed.

[LeRouxIsPHat]

Just thought of another example of that, Henshaw at 15 for the England game. It seemed like a bad idea to everyone at the time and so it proved to be, but I can see why Joe wanted to try it. To try it in that manner though when he was just back from injury and it was such a big game etc. It could still have been tried in a different game or maybe if we were 10 points up with 15 minutes left or something, but to be SO World Cup focused with that selection was crazy.

Agree on the style and would also be more comfortable if Lancaster was joining the ticket. Tbh I can see him joining when his Leinster contract is up because I suspect we'll need a boost/change by then. Maybe a new coach in the middle of a World Cup cycle is another thing we can look at, the addition of Weismantel certainly helped England last year. I'm not too enthused about Catt joining. No offence to him but I'd rather we were after someone like Tony Brown who seemed to be leading the way with new ways of playing.

Another thing I forgot to mention is that I think we need to look at the player management system. It doesn't really stop injuries and guys look undercooked. Maybe we could even adapt it so that players play more games for their provinces but the national team rotates more often. In other words you don't save players only for them to be flogged during a 6N. Let them get beaten up a bit over Christmas and then if you need to make 2/3 changes before every game in the 6N then so be it.

[Twist]

Those are some sensible but very RWC-centric suggestions. I remember similar talk going around in the hours after the 2015 QF. But once the 6N, June & November tests are underway its very hard not to be swayed by what you’re seeing. The English nearly lost faith with Eddie Jones around 2018 because of a run of results not dissimilar to ours in 2019. Does Andy Farrell have enough credit to withstand year or two of patchy results?


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[LeRouxIsPHat]

Those are some sensible but very RWC-centric suggestions. I remember similar talk going around in the hours after the 2015 QF. But once the 6N, June & November tests are underway its very hard not to be swayed by what you’re seeing. The English nearly lost faith with Eddie Jones around 2018 because of a run of results not dissimilar to ours in 2019. Does Andy Farrell have enough credit to withstand year or two of patchy results?


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I know what you mean but I don't mean them to be RWC-centric. I suppose the best way of putting is that we need to put certain things in place so that we continuously evolve, so it's not that we make those changes to be ready for a World Cup, it's that we avoid being stagnant because we focus so much on the perfect preparation for one. I mean, I'd love to know if Andy Farrell was thinking "I'll change X when I'm in charge" but couldn't do it now because we had Plan A for the World Cup since last November and it couldn't be changed no matter what.

I'd love to know what team Joe would have picked if we were playing NZ next month in a regular November international. My sense is that some of the experienced players who he backed to perform today would not have been in his team for a non World Cup game but because he made his mind up about the best team 11 months ago then that's what he had to go with.

[dropkick]

I think Farrell has to make sweeping changes to the style of play and players. If he goes for continuity then he better get good results otherwise the pressure with rightfully come on. I'd say he'll have 2 years to get it right because he has no credit in the bank as a head coach. It's harsh but that's the environment he's in.


With that said, I'm hopeful Farrell will bring in fresh ideas and be his own man. I'm not sure about hiring Catt but at least Italy play a nice brand of attacking rugby which will be a refreshing change for the players.


I think we need a more skill based game. Let the ball do the work. It seems to be successful in every field sport I see. Be more creative, unpredictable, skillful, elusive, brave, seek space etc.


The team selection should be more fluid too. Play players who are in form. Sure player B might not be as talented/experienced as player A but if player A is dropping balls, missing tackles etc then the talent isn't being utilised.


I think that's part of the reason Ireland flop in world cups. There always seems to be a 15 set in stone. If a few are off form, not only does it have a negative impact on performances but it's like a viscous circle where it effects moral of the others and the team go into a downward spiral.


I think he provinces need to change to a skill based game. Bullying pro14 teams up front is good for the provinces but it's been crippling for Ireland. It's like the kid who is great in schools rugby because of his size but when moving up tomplay with the big boys he gets found out because the bullying doesn't work and he has no plan B not to mention plan C, D, Evetc. A one trick pony.


In fairness the provinces are moving in that direction, finally.

[CiaranIrl]

quote]
Mike Catt has already signed.

Ugh. I'd forgotten that. Hopefully I'm wrong in being very underwhelmed.

[Twist]

I think he provinces need to change to a skill based game. Bullying pro14 teams up front is good for the provinces but it's been crippling for Ireland. It's like the kid who is great in schools rugby because of his size but when moving up tomplay with the big boys he gets found out because the bullying doesn't work and he has no plan B not to mention plan C, D, Evetc. A one trick pony.


In fairness the provinces are moving in that direction, finally.

Yeah I think both Leinster & Connacht are doing ok in that respect. I know we do generally get a bit of dominance up front but its not like our whole game depends on it



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[RoboProp]

Do the central contracts sometimes mean form is ignored? Case in point, Conan/Ruddock Vs POM. POM cost the IRFU a lot of money to keep. When push comes to shove in big games they seem to back their "investment"

[lummix]

I feel the two main problem areas of the team are the back row and back 3.
Teams know they can kick us the ball as we have no counter attack strategy whatsoever. This gives them an easy out.

The back row isa big problem, POM seems underpowered to be a blindside these days, probably 7 or bust. CJ needs to work on his footwork and offloading. Dan leavy was covering a lot of problems in that back row last season.
Re JVF I would love to see him converted into a hooker as we have nothing of international quality coming through there.
For the 6nations I would like to see the below team

Carbery
Conway
Ringrose
Henshaw
Stockdale
Sexton
Murray
Conan
Leavy
Ruddock
Ryan
Henderson
Furlong
JVF
Porter
Bench
Healy
Ryan
Cronin
Bierne
Stander (last 20 when teams are tiring)
Mcgrath
Aki
Larmour

[Twist]

I think CJ looks better at 6. I like seeing him and Conan together. But I also like having Beirne at 6 sooooo I dunno - figure it out Andy!

We’re shallow at 8, but Im more worried about 7. Dan and JVDF are both good enough when fit, but both cop a lot of injuries. Do ye see Scott Penney as a future international? Who else is coming through?


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[ronk]

In 2007 there were some talented young players who hadn’t been considered and who broke through in 2008/2009. We cant really say that’s the case now. There aren’t the same quick wins in changing personnel.

From a way back I thought of Schmidt as similar to Bill Walsh and it seems like the ending is too. Walsh fell out of love with the game as he became more obsessed with perfection and he punished himself (& the players) harder even for games that were won.

Joe Schmidt was an affable and approachable coach. He was adaptable. In the last few years he’s slowly become ruthless and dogmatic. Video reviews have achieved legendary status. He was willing to throw Leinster under the bus to get subs more game time. He dropped Zebo while he was still in Munster. Ireland looked tired. We all knew it was getting harder to succeed with the same plan, it was just decided that it was too late to change it.

[LeRouxIsPHat]

I feel the two main problem areas of the team are the back row and back 3.
Teams know they can kick us the ball as we have no counter attack strategy whatsoever. This gives them an easy out.

Not sure if this counts as a strategy but Larmour seemed to have the freedom to do what he wanted on the counter attack and I thought he was great at it but he was very much on his own. The contrast with his desire to run towards the space and the mix up that Johnny and Rob had when it looked like Johnny was going to kick it high for Rob to chase but then Rob ended up running straight into one of the NZers was extraordinary. You could pick out loads of shockingly poor moments from today but to see the WPOTY and the most decorated player in Irish rugby history make such a b*%&!x of a brilliant counter attacking opportunity with tonnes of time and space was truly unbelievable. Larmour seems to have matured a lot recently, he hasn't been going off on his own and getting isolated, he's been much smarter about how he tries to make the difference.

Thinking back to all the handling errors really frustrates me that we didn't pick more of the in form guys. Joe didn't name names but said that we were banged up from last week and I have a feeling that some of the guys on the bench or in the stands would have been better starting options. If you're struggling physically and confidence is a bit ropey then you need to have a couple of guys who are still buzzing.

And on that point about players being banged up, I have to wonder if Dev's presence for the group games would have meant that Henderson and Ryan were fresher today.

[LeRouxIsPHat]

In 2007 there were some talented young players who hadn’t been considered and who broke through in 2008/2009. We cant really say that’s the case now. There aren’t the same quick wins in changing personnel.

This is going to sound harsh but I suppose if the likes of Murray, Sexton, Rob, and Earls are going to play as badly as they did today then whoever replaces them will actually improve the side even if they have half the talent of those guys. The other backs from today played poorly too but they're younger and very talented so I'm sure they'll bounce back.

I think there's huge scope for improvement in the backs. Not sure I want him there long term but even just the idea of Joey being an option at fullback could transform our game. I don't see that scope for improvement up front. The talent is there but I don't think it'll be ready for at least 12 months in most cases.

[LeRouxIsPHat]

Watching this morning's game made me think again about the idea of putting so much focus on the World Cup. France have been a mess for the guts of 15 years now, but made a final in 2011 when they pretty much ditched their coach and let the players take over, and they're apparently in complete disarray again but managed to play some amazing rugby today and would have got through if it wasn't for a stupid red card and a couple of awful decisions. On the flip side of that, Wales have been the definition of solid (just in terms of the national side) for years now but on the eve of the tournament they lost their long serving attack coach and ended up in a semi final after those mental decisions from the French.

Basically, sh!t happens and you just have to roll with it. If you get fixated on a perfect preparation and things go belly up then the extra pressure you've put on yourself will become unbearable. You could write a thesis on how we treated Joey over the last couple of years, not just about the reluctance to move him to 15 that I mentioned above, but even moving him to Munster. Things were ticking along nicely for everyone but then he moved south and it didn't really do a whole lot for him because of his injuries and the fact that Munster just weren't as good as Leinster anyway.

[neiliog93]

Watching this morning's game made me think again about the idea of putting so much focus on the World Cup. France have been a mess for the guts of 15 years now, but made a final in 2011 when they pretty much ditched their coach and let the players take over, and they're apparently in complete disarray again but managed to play some amazing rugby today and would have got through if it wasn't for a stupid red card and a couple of awful decisions. On the flip side of that, Wales have been the definition of solid (just in terms of the national side) for years now but on the eve of the tournament they lost their long serving attack coach and ended up in a semi final after those mental decisions from the French.

Basically, sh!t happens and you just have to roll with it. If you get fixated on a perfect preparation and things go belly up then the extra pressure you've put on yourself will become unbearable. You could write a thesis on how we treated Joey over the last couple of years, not just about the reluctance to move him to 15 that I mentioned above, but even moving him to Munster. Things were ticking along nicely for everyone but then he moved south and it didn't really do a whole lot for him because of his injuries and the fact that Munster just weren't as good as Leinster anyway.

There's definitely something to this. I wonder were we almost overly prepared (as the players said they were in 2007)? Rocking up and trusting basic skills to be executed with speed, precision and consistency under pressure seems to be the way rugby has gone over the last 18 months, rather than exhaustive preparation and set moves. Not good for Schmidt's Ireland but probably good for the game as a whole.

[Dexter]

Watching this morning's game made me think again about the idea of putting so much focus on the World Cup. France have been a mess for the guts of 15 years now, but made a final in 2011 when they pretty much ditched their coach and let the players take over, and they're apparently in complete disarray again but managed to play some amazing rugby today and would have got through if it wasn't for a stupid red card and a couple of awful decisions. On the flip side of that, Wales have been the definition of solid (just in terms of the national side) for years now but on the eve of the tournament they lost their long serving attack coach and ended up in a semi final after those mental decisions from the French.

Basically, sh!t happens and you just have to roll with it. If you get fixated on a perfect preparation and things go belly up then the extra pressure you've put on yourself will become unbearable. You could write a thesis on how we treated Joey over the last couple of years, not just about the reluctance to move him to 15 that I mentioned above, but even moving him to Munster. Things were ticking along nicely for everyone but then he moved south and it didn't really do a whole lot for him because of his injuries and the fact that Munster just weren't as good as Leinster anyway.

Would agree with this, have been thinking this way for a while. There seems to be too much focus on the RWC, which is essentially only for one or two games anyway. Maybe it's putting too much pressure on the whole setup and makes everything too rigid.

[Twist]

Yeah, no-one else would soul search after losing a QF to NZ like we're about to now. You can want something too much sometimes


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