Friday's Rave

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Re: Friday's Rave

Postby Oldschool » August 23rd, 2019, 7:43 pm

Peg Leg wrote:There are some fair comments in there OS and I understand the sentiment. The loudest voices on both sides are the most radical and many of the begrudgers use a liberal line to cloak their anti establishment sentiment.
It's probably fair to say most reside close to the centre in Europe. But the US is fucked, soul sold to the capitalism machine to extreme extents and the nationalism is a result.

The CBs (particularly, the fed and the ecb) have been central to the driving the capitalist machine forward.
The low interest rates have allowed venture capitalistim run riot and the liberals in Europe are just as guilty.
Meanwhile we have that icon of communism, China, buying up the third world's resources with money printed by the aforementioned CBs
In fact the liberals in Europe and the ecb have been worse even than the Americans.
Socialism won't work because the type of socialist we have(is it really socialism) doesn't create wealth. In fact they consume it.
The hen that lays golden eggs won't survive
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Re: Friday's Rave

Postby Peg Leg » August 23rd, 2019, 8:20 pm

I'd says its more down to a political system that is subservient to corporations, donations and superPAC's that has the states where they are. That and a racism.
China is no more a communist state than Ireland. The central banks just read the tea leaves and try to act fairly for everyone in their district.

Oh, and no it's not socialism. That's the term people in opposition use to brand everything liberal. (Similar to my use of the term racism, but in terms of the US I think that hidden few have unmasked themselves as a substantial 30% of the electorate)
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Re: Friday's Rave

Postby Oldschool » August 23rd, 2019, 9:34 pm

Peg Leg wrote:I'd says its more down to a political system that is subservient to corporations, donations and superPAC's that has the states where they are. That and a racism.
China is no more a communist state than Ireland. The central banks just read the tea leaves and try to act fairly for everyone in their district.

Oh, and no it's not socialism. That's the term people in opposition use to brand everything liberal. (Similar to my use of the term racism, but in terms of the US I think that hidden few have unmasked themselves as a substantial 30% of the electorate)

The CB most certainly do not act fairly or try to act fairly.
But that's an argument for another day.
The EU recently agreed a new trade deal with South America which allows those countries export beef etc into the EU.
A few weeks later the Amazon rain forests ate ablaze.
Maybe that's just coincidence but it's some coincidence.
This was a deal between politicians.
The EU didn't have to sign up to do this.
I don't doubt that the corporates are up to their eyes in ...
However the politicians are every bit as unilaterally guilty.
As for your comment on socialism it's more a case that the socialists have hijacked the liberal agenda to their own benefit.
Phrases like affordable housing and affordable health care role off their tongues.
What is affordable housing and/or affordable health care is one thing but how you achieve it is a completely different ball game.
One answer to affordable health care is for people to take responsibility for their own health and behave responsibly.
Starting with knowing things about their health like a full blood test annually which would for starters inform them.
Then they need to do something about that information. Doing stuff like that would reduce demand for health care and make it more affordable.
The impact could have a fairly quick impact on the affordability of health care.
Housing requires strategic planning.
Quick fixes will and are only making the problem worse.
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Re: Friday's Rave

Postby Peg Leg » August 23rd, 2019, 9:44 pm

But I think you and I would both happily pay higher taxes if we felt the government would put it to good use in service of you, me and those in need.
There is a very real means to do that, the appetite, not so much.

RE Brazil. You're bang on and they have their own misogynistic dictator to deal with. Personally speaking the rainforest should be liberated from the Brazilian government, or uncoupled/protected such is its importance to the global environment.
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Re: Friday's Rave

Postby Peg Leg » August 23rd, 2019, 9:46 pm

Sorry for hijacking the thread all. Today's rave, the unanimous praise for Joe Schmidt the human and the impact (genuine personal impact) he has had on so many.

That and Ian finding some NCIS episodes!
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Re: Friday's Rave

Postby Oldschool » August 23rd, 2019, 9:55 pm

Peg Leg wrote:Sorry for hijacking the thread all. Today's rave, the unanimous praise for Joe Schmidt the human and the impact (genuine personal impact) he has had on so many.

That and Ian finding some NCIS episodes!

Never got into NCIS but while we will all criticize Joe from time to time, he is the greatest thing to ever happen to Irish rugby.
Maybe we need to tell him that now in particular.
In JOE we believe and trust.
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Re: Friday's Rave

Postby paddyor » August 26th, 2019, 7:35 pm

Oldschool wrote:F,^ck the begrudgers and I don't care what colour they are, purple or otherwise.
It's actually the attitude of the left wing that is causing the rebirth of fascism, they need to look at themselves first before they go pointing the finger at anyone else.
In the Irish context, the refusal by the socialists to pay water charges is/was a very good example of the socialist attitude of heads you pay and tails I get it for free.

This is verifiable nonsense, but it's so very on brand that the politics of personal responsibility and self reliance has found someone to blame for their growing facism.

I don't disagree about the disgrace re water charges resistance, but factually that was a hard left project(see Trostkite) iniative and it hard broad support amongst more than the just the hard left. There was a lot of middle class and rural opposition to it.
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Re: Friday's Rave

Postby paddyor » August 26th, 2019, 7:51 pm

Oldschool wrote:
Peg Leg wrote:There are some fair comments in there OS and I understand the sentiment. The loudest voices on both sides are the most radical and many of the begrudgers use a liberal line to cloak their anti establishment sentiment.
It's probably fair to say most reside close to the centre in Europe. But the US is fucked, soul sold to the capitalism machine to extreme extents and the nationalism is a result.

The CBs (particularly, the fed and the ecb) have been central to the driving the capitalist machine forward.
The low interest rates have allowed venture capitalistim run riot and the liberals in Europe are just as guilty.
Meanwhile we have that icon of communism, China, buying up the third world's resources with money printed by the aforementioned CBs
In fact the liberals in Europe and the ecb have been worse even than the Americans.
Socialism won't work because the type of socialist we have(is it really socialism) doesn't create wealth. In fact they consume it.
The hen that lays golden eggs won't survive

Fascinating that you blame capitalism for what appears to be capitalism while simultaneously rejecting any kind of socialist agenda.

It wasn't venture capitalists that ran riot, it was traditonal investment banks both European and American and it was the sub prime crisis and derivatives trading in a hyper deregulated US mortgage market that was the problem. Certainly there's a case that the Deutche and UBS did terribly in that regard but the US banks were just as terrible. What is it they did that was so much worse?

What book did you read that in? Wouldn't make a lick of sense for the Chinese to borrow in € or $ given the exchange rate and interest rate risk. And given how they operate in those countries(insisting that their own companies get the development contracts with Chinese workers) paying in Yuan makes a good deal more sense. Plus if give them Yuan, they can buy goods off you in Yuan as opposed to being able to buy from wherever.
Ruddock's tackle stats consistently too low for me to be taken seriously as a Six Nations blindside..... Ruddock's defensive stats don't stack up. - All Blacks Nil, Jan 15th, 2014
England A 8 - 14 Ireland A, 25th Jan 2014
Ruddock(c) 19/2 Tackles
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Re: Friday's Rave

Postby Oldschool » August 26th, 2019, 8:00 pm

paddyor wrote:
Oldschool wrote:
Peg Leg wrote:There are some fair comments in there OS and I understand the sentiment. The loudest voices on both sides are the most radical and many of the begrudgers use a liberal line to cloak their anti establishment sentiment.
It's probably fair to say most reside close to the centre in Europe. But the US is fucked, soul sold to the capitalism machine to extreme extents and the nationalism is a result.

The CBs (particularly, the fed and the ecb) have been central to the driving the capitalist machine forward.
The low interest rates have allowed venture capitalistim run riot and the liberals in Europe are just as guilty.
Meanwhile we have that icon of communism, China, buying up the third world's resources with money printed by the aforementioned CBs
In fact the liberals in Europe and the ecb have been worse even than the Americans.
Socialism won't work because the type of socialist we have(is it really socialism) doesn't create wealth. In fact they consume it.
The hen that lays golden eggs won't survive

Fascinating that you blame capitalism for what appears to be capitalism while simultaneously rejecting any kind of socialist agenda.

It wasn't venture capitalists that ran riot, it was traditonal investment banks both European and American and it was the sub prime crisis and derivatives trading in a hyper deregulated US mortgage market that was the problem. Certainly there's a case that the Deutche and UBS did terribly in that regard but the US banks were just as terrible. What is it they did that was so much worse?

What book did you read that in? Wouldn't make a lick of sense for the Chinese to borrow in € or $ given the exchange rate and interest rate risk. And given how they operate in those countries(insisting that their own companies get the development contracts with Chinese workers) paying in Yuan makes a good deal more sense. Plus if give them Yuan, they can buy goods off you in Yuan as opposed to being able to buy from wherever.

Not for the first time Por but you've somehow managed to totally misinterpret what I posted.
You're talking about the melt down, I wasn't.
Mind you it took you long enough this time, something wrong?
BTW the bit you highlighted, what do you think happened to a lot of that printed money, it ended up buying Chinese goods.
What do you think the Chinese did with that money.
Or where and on what do you think they spent it.
You're smart enough to have figured that out so why didn't you instead coming up with a load of claptrap about my reading habits.
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Re: Friday's Rave

Postby paddyor » August 26th, 2019, 10:38 pm

Well excuse me for getting tripped up by your word salad. But once again you’re oversimplification in pursuit of a narrative has lead you astray. Interest rates only tanked after the GFC and have remained at historically low rates since. It was that event that lead them to print money(and the consequences of not doing so would have been disastrous) so you see any analysis about the conduct of central banks and printing money must in some way be related to the GFC which is post Chinese investment spree in Africa and the printing presses being on or off didn’t materially change their behavior.

The “printed” money in the case of the ECB was for the most part not actually printed. It was an agreement on the part of CBs that certain bonds and bundles of loans that otherwise under normal circumstances couldn’t be used for certain purposes could in fact be used for those purposes. Effectively made Irish debt could be considered on a par with German debt. This allowed banks to increase their tier 1 capital and carry any losses on their existing debt. The result was banks had more to lend and govt debt prices collapsed. So yeah, some of the money we didn’t spend on debt probably ended up in China(not to mention MMCs operating in Ireland) after washing thru the financial system.

I’m gonna guess it’s the low interest rate available on deposits that makes you think it unfair?

I’m reading Adam Tooze’s Crashed at the moment. It’s about the GFC and what caused it, goes right back to the Collpapse of Breton Woods and how the Volcker rule shaped policy. Fascinating stuff. Most interesting part is where he says ultimately what happens in the world economy is down to about 100 people and the decisions they make. It got me thinking how do you change that and I’m not sure you can.
Ruddock's tackle stats consistently too low for me to be taken seriously as a Six Nations blindside..... Ruddock's defensive stats don't stack up. - All Blacks Nil, Jan 15th, 2014
England A 8 - 14 Ireland A, 25th Jan 2014
Ruddock(c) 19/2 Tackles
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Re: Friday's Rave

Postby paddyor » August 27th, 2019, 1:27 am

Ruddock's tackle stats consistently too low for me to be taken seriously as a Six Nations blindside..... Ruddock's defensive stats don't stack up. - All Blacks Nil, Jan 15th, 2014
England A 8 - 14 Ireland A, 25th Jan 2014
Ruddock(c) 19/2 Tackles
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Re: Friday's Rave

Postby paddyor » August 27th, 2019, 9:54 pm

https://twitter.com/alecstapp/status/1166423406369300481?s=21

For the sake of balance, a thread fact checking some of the claims made in that Great Hack documentary.
Ruddock's tackle stats consistently too low for me to be taken seriously as a Six Nations blindside..... Ruddock's defensive stats don't stack up. - All Blacks Nil, Jan 15th, 2014
England A 8 - 14 Ireland A, 25th Jan 2014
Ruddock(c) 19/2 Tackles
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Re: Friday's Rave

Postby Oldschool » August 30th, 2019, 2:46 pm

paddyor wrote:Well I’m gonna guess it’s the low interest rate available on deposits that makes you think it unfair?

Try impact on pension fund returns.
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Re: Friday's Rave

Postby johng » August 31st, 2019, 7:46 pm

Equity heavy pension funds have been going gangbusters for the last 10 years. Now is probably the time to move towards higher proportion of Property/Bonds/Cash though. Big correction coming. quite likely next year. Trump will be hoping its in 2021 though for obvious reasons.
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Re: Friday's Rave

Postby Oldschool » August 31st, 2019, 8:13 pm

johng wrote:Equity heavy pension funds have been going gangbusters for the last 10 years. Now is probably the time to move towards higher proportion of Property/Bonds/Cash though. Big correction coming. quite likely next year. Trump will be hoping its in 2021 though for obvious reasons.

My own pension fund would, sadly, disagree with you.
Gangbusters for who though?
Defined benefit is a thing of the past.
Defined contributions suggests that the risk has shifted and not to the benefit of the pensioner.
From my point of view, the rate of inflation should be negative.
This is based simplistically on the impact of technology on all aspects of cost.
Yet the CBs are in denial and actually have a target of +2% based on god knows what but certainly to allow countries to continue to borrow vast amounts of money seemingly regardless of the consequences.
Now I appreciate that there are enormous consequences for national economic management if it is accepted that the rate of inflation should be negative and not positive.
Incidentally, you say there's a downturn coming, will this be driven by the implosion of derivative trading and in particular German banks. I suppose that could be orchestrated to "take care" of the Trump problem.
(We should be careful what we wish for.)
Why do CBs allow gambling of this nature in the financial system.
Anyway I'm only having a rant.
Even if you tried to explain it to me I wouldn't get it.
I just look at my own (gradual) financial deterioration and realize it's because they're out to get me and I want to make it as difficult as possible for them to succeed.
I'm a firm believer in Phyric defeats.
Last edited by Oldschool on August 31st, 2019, 8:36 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Friday's Rave

Postby johng » August 31st, 2019, 8:26 pm

Possibly heavy in bonds and cash because of your age?

Equities recovered to 2008 levels by 2014 and have made huge gains since. One fund i am in is up over 60% in the last 5 years.

The other thing these days is... because annuities are such poor value most people who have the option don't go for one and opt for an arf. Which means you don't have to go too conservative with your pension in your 60s as you can still get growth after you retire.

In an ideal world you could beat the manditory 4% annual withdrawal and your fund would never decline
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Re: Friday's Rave

Postby Oldschool » August 31st, 2019, 8:46 pm

johng wrote:Possibly heavy in bonds and cash because of your age?

Equities recovered to 2008 levels by 2014 and have made huge gains since. One fund i am in is up over 60% in the last 5 years.

The other thing these days is... because annuities are such poor value most people who have the option don't go for one and opt for an arf. Which means you don't have to go too conservative with your pension in your 60s as you can still get growth after you retire.

In an ideal world you could beat the manditory 4% annual withdrawal and your fund would never decline

I told you I wouldn't understand but thanks for, at least, trying. :wink:
BTW I did think about buying into bitcoin but chickened out. I'd be a happy punter now if I had but I still don't trust encrypted coinage.
I bought a modest amount of gold instead, part of a little windfall.
Sweated on it for the last few years but it's starting to come good.
A sure sign that the impending doom of which you speak may well be in a state of preparedness.
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Re: Friday's Rave

Postby johng » August 31st, 2019, 8:51 pm

Good time for gold now. Secret of a pension fund is diversity. Never put all your basques in one exit.

That and keep all your investments within the pension as it's tax free growth.
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Re: Friday's Rave

Postby blockhead » September 1st, 2019, 12:29 am

So apparently, the g in johng stands for Gekko.
The silly season is sooooo long.
I still don't know what a tracker mortage is!
You know I'm going to lose,
And gambling's for fools,
But that's the way I like it baby, I don't want to live FOREVER!
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Re: Friday's Rave

Postby paddyor » September 6th, 2019, 2:30 pm

Oldschool wrote:I told you I wouldn't understand but thanks for, at least, trying. :wink:
BTW I did think about buying into bitcoin but chickened out. I'd be a happy punter now if I had but I still don't trust encrypted coinage.
I bought a modest amount of gold instead, part of a little windfall.
Sweated on it for the last few years but it's starting to come good.
A sure sign that the impending doom of which you speak may well be in a state of preparedness.

Cyrptos are a scam, your gut served you well. Which is not tos ay you couldn't have made any money on it but you have to be quite involved in trading and if something happens you'll likely be bed when it goes down. Extremely difficult to exit your positions as well.
Ruddock's tackle stats consistently too low for me to be taken seriously as a Six Nations blindside..... Ruddock's defensive stats don't stack up. - All Blacks Nil, Jan 15th, 2014
England A 8 - 14 Ireland A, 25th Jan 2014
Ruddock(c) 19/2 Tackles
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